tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
Back to the Norman Yoke with Labour in South Yorkshire. And does no one around their know that Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins are dead.
Local Elections 2023
- Thread starter QueenOfGoths
- Start date
Back to the Norman Yoke with Labour in South Yorkshire. And does no one around their know that Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins are dead.
Serge Forward
Just enjoyin' my coffee.
Some background to this here: Labour pains in Leicester
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
Dr. Death was always a tad fash-adjacent
Leafster
.
Looking at where I live, Tandridge (which is effectively the East Surrey parliamentary constituency), I think the Indies are mostly NIMBY 'Tories'. When it comes to Westminster elections the Tory gets around 60% of the vote. Sadly, I don't see that changing too much. The only parliamentary party other than the Tories with any strong support is the LibDems and they are way behind.
Perhaps, in other areas in the South East where there's a stronger presence of Labour or the Greens as well as the LibDems things might be a little different.
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
Starmer is somewhat deluded I feel, in his view that this can be translated into a Commons majority. About half of the Conservative losses have gone to Labour, proportionally the Lib Dems are the biggest winners.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Wouldnt describe them as fash adjacent, they are neither a stepping stone or a disembarkation point for fash imo.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
I thought they were nutty libertarians, or at I getting them confused with the modern version of the ‘Liberal Party’?
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
There's been a lot of travelling by the post-merger Liberals and SDP. Both are rumps of their former selves.
The Liberals in Liverpool have turned into a very localist party as much as anything else. The SDP has been relaunched as virtually the opposite to the very principles of the original: anti-EU, conservative, nationalist.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Socially conservative ( 'traditional' as they said in a clip) , economically social democratic I think. Got two councillors in Leeds. There was some sort of rump Liberal Party around Leeds wasn't there?
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
In West Sussex I am sure the Tories will hold 6 out of the 8 seats, where they have majorities of around 15-22,000. But, it's possible Labour could take Crawley (maj 8,360), they held it from 1997 to 2010, and perhaps East Worthing and Shoreham (maj. 7,441) - Labour was second in 2015 with about 10,000 votes, but in 2017 & 2019 they got around 20,000 votes, and they are working very hard in that area.
East Sussex the ones at risk are - Lewes (maj 2,457) will probably go to the LDs who held it 1997-2110, Hastings and Rye (maj 4,043) to Labour who held it 1997-2110,
Eastbourne (maj 4,331) to the LDs they took it in 2010, lost it in 2015, took it back in 2017, lost it again in 2019, so I guess it's their turn again.
Brighton & Hove's 3 seats are safe for Labour & the Greens, leaving the Tories possibly only with Bexhill and Battle + Wealden where they have majorities of over 25,000, i.e. just 2 out of 8 seats.In Kent I suspect Labour will keep Canterbury, where they overturned the Tory majority of around 10,000 in 2017. I suspect the only other at risk is South Thanet also with a Tory majority of around 10,000, Labour is in second place and held it 1997-2110. Maybe Dover 12,000 majority, but again Labour held it 1997-2110. The rest seem safe as houses.
If around 10,000 majorities are at risk, in Surrey that's -
Esher and Walton - 2,743 - LDs in a strong second place, and people may want to give Dominic Raab a good kicking.
Guildford - 3,337 - LDs in a strong second place, and held it 2001-2005.
South West Surrey - 8,817 - LDs in second place, and people may want to give Jeremy Hunt a good kicking too.
Woking - 9,767 - LDs in second place.
So, a fair few at risk across the four counties, it's certainly going to be an interesting.
I can't believe how much time I wasted on checking all those out, but it's pissing down, and I am avoiding some bloody unmentionable event that's happening in that there Londinium.
Bus Honeygun
This week the score draws are plentiful
The old Liberal Party linger a bit in the rural west country with a few councillors dotted around Devon and Cornwall. Think it's a throwback to the days when the Liberals stood up for religious dissenters, and Methodism and Wesleyanism were big around these parts - and Yorkshire I believe? Also, farmers around here tend to buck the wealthy Tory landowner stereotype with a lot of small holdings and tenant farmers, although a lot less than there used to be.
circleline
Well-Known Member
Worth repeating. First time ever Labour taking control of Medway Council. Pretty massive locally. Only about 30% voted ,apparently. Vince Maple, having been up all night, requested a meeting with Medway Chief Exec at 9am Friday morning. Keen!
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
Michael Meadowcroft led the rump Liberals for years as a Leeds councillor but I think joined the Libdems finally as an ardent remainer while his party was much more Eurosceptic to ambivalent.
Mr.Bishie
pickled egg
Well, that’s proper cuntish if right! Think we’d only been in Brighton a year so I don’t know.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I suspect that low turnout had an element of Tory voters not bothering to vote.
petee
no gods, no malarkey
I've been thinking of appropriate titles for the pornos you'd be in ...
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I was talking about this yesterday with a couple of mates, who are involved in the Labour Party locally, and they have totally convinced me that the slightly renamed 'East Worthing and Shoreham' seat will most likely go to Labour. This morning I get a message with a couple of links to the 'Electoral Calculus' site and a warning that the second one would blow my mind.
So, the first one is their prediction for the so-called new 'Worthing East and Shoreham' seat is that Labour has a 79% chance of winning it with a majority of 6,209, over turning Tim Loughton's Tory majority of 7,477, which isn't all that surprising to me.
But, they are right, the second prediction is mind blowing, it's for the 'Worthing West' seat that includes some sizeable posh villages, and both them & I were sure it would be safe for Sir Peter Bottomley (Father of the House) and his Tory majority of 14,986, but they have the chance of Labour winning it at 56% with a majority of 1,171. I found that hard to believe, before scrolling down to their predictions based on council wards, and suddenly it seems a bit close to call for sure, but certainly very possible.
Crawley - Labour has a 81% chance of winning it with a majority of 6,762, overturning the Toiries' 8,359.
I still think the other 5 West Sussex seats are safe for the Tories, but with much reduced majorities, they are predicting 'Bognor Regis and Littlehampton' will drop from a whopping 21,874 to just 2,878!
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Are these Calculus projections based on Westminster polling or 'extrapolations' from the locals?
Leafster
.
I was just wondering that. Looking at my ward for example, they are suggesting the Tories will 'win' it yet the LibDems took it at the locals with 74% of the vote.
I don't disagree with their overall conclusion that the constituency will stay Tory but on a ward by ward basis it looks a bit odd.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
at the risk of stating the bleeding obvious, some care should be taken in reading too much in to last week's results - the local elections in 1993 / 1995 were better for labour than the 1997 general election was. from memory, the tories kept control of only one shire county council in 1993 (think it was buckinghamshire) and quite a few of the others went back to the tories in 1997 when the county council and general elections were the same day, so the turnout was higher and people were less inclined to register a protest vote...
farmerbarleymow
I'm Petee's spirit animal
Unsurprisingly the site predicts 100% that labour will win my constituency next time - not a shock given the huge majority they have. The site does predict their vote share will increase but it could drop significantly and they'd still hold it. Always nice to see the tories on a 0% chance though.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
It doesn't seem very clear, IIRC it's a mix, and they do include 'political and demographic numerical indicators' as well, looking at the wards in my area, I think they are including some data from local elections with adjustments of some sort, but probably not last week's results yet, which could explain Leafster's post above.
In Worthing there has certainly been a big change in the demographics over the last 10-15+ years, with the average age dropping in the town, and boundary changes are removing around 4,000 'village voters' from the Worthing West seat, which are far more likely to vote Tory compared with new voters in Worthing borough. As more people have moved down from London to Brighton, more people have moved from Brighton to Worthing, many more left-leaning than the older folk that have shifted more to the surrounding villages, this is also reflected in the growing live music & arts scenes, bars and restaurants, launching Worthing Pride, etc. - it's a very different town to 20 years ago.
The other big change has been how Labour has become more organised and much more active, and their successes have impacted on the 'hidden Labour supporters', the attitude going from 'it's pointless voting', to 'fucking hell, we can do it'. That's explained in these two articles -
How to beat the Tories in their heartlands: the story of East Worthing - LabourList
Worthing is a coastal town in West Sussex with a population of 110,000. We are split into two…
labourlist.org
"Hoping it will spread": Local activists on Labour's rapid advance in Worthing - LabourList
I am sitting with Margaret Howard in a hall in Worthing after a busy day of canvassing. Howard…
labourlist.org
From winning their first seat on the borough council in 2017 to taking full control last year, whilst also winning their first Worthing seats on West Sussex County Council, taking 5 out of 8, there's certainly plenty of specific local reasons beyond national trends for the GE predictions.
As I posted above, I do find the predictions for both Crawley + Worthing East and Shoreham very reasonable and likely, but Worthing West is a bit close to call IMO, but certainly possible.
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steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
A genuinely bizarre & disturbing image. Starmer looks like he's been to a Learn to be More Human course run by AI, but farted / followed through in real life conditions.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
Boston is odd. Very insular, has had a few BNP / english democrat / ukip councillors n recent years.
The 'Boston Independent' group is an evolution of the boston by-pass party which put up candidates some years back as a single issue party (i can't now remember whether they wanted the by-pass sooner or different, or opposed it or what) and unexpectedly found themselves in control of the council, and had to come up with some other policies pretty quick.
The Lincolnshire Independents have a website which doesn't really say a lot about them, but they have a presence on most of the councils now. I'm not as in touch with Lincolnshire as i used to be, so not sure what they are like in practice.
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