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Local Elections 2023

Rise like Lions after slumber In unvanquishable number, Shake your chains to earth like dew

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Interesting map of the south-east, and how that traditional blue wall has all but collapsed completely.

Tories have over all control of just two councils in Kent (Dartford + Sevenoaks), only one in Surrey (Reigate & Banstead), none whatsoever in East Sussex (no elections in Hastings), and only one in West Sussex - Adur District, which had no elections this year, otherwise I suspect that would have gone to at least NOC.

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Here in West Sussex, the three big surprises were:

Horsham - LibDems taking overall control from the Tories.
Chichester - LibDems taking overall control from a Tory/Indy administration.
Mid-Sussex (Haywards Health, Burgess Hill, East Grinstead, etc.) - Tories losing overall control - and where the LDs 20, Greens 4, Lab 1 and/or some Indy's 5 working together could take control. Tories only on 20.

Arun (Bognor, Littlehampton etc.) remains no overall control - Tories 20, Indy's 6, LDs 14, Lab 8, Greens 6, those three in bold could take control from the Tory/Indy's.
Both Crawley + Worthing were held by Labour, which gained overall control of each last year.
Adur (Shoreham/Lancing, etc.) remains Tory overall control, because there was no elections this year.

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Interesting map of the south-east, and how that traditional blue wall has all but collapsed completely.

Tories have over all control of just two councils in Kent (Dartford + Sevenoaks), only one in Surrey (Reigate & Banstead), none whatsoever in East Sussex (no elections in Hastings), and only one in West Sussex - Adur District, which had no elections this year, otherwise I suspect that would have gone to at least NOC.

View attachment 373534

Here in West Sussex, the three big surprises were:

Horsham - LibDems taking overall control from the Tories.
Chichester - LibDems taking overall control from a Tory/Indy administration.
Mid-Sussex (Haywards Health, Burgess Hill, East Grinstead, etc.) - Tories losing overall control - and where the LDs 20, Greens 4, Lab 1 and/or some Indy's 5 working together could take control. Tories only on 20.

Arun (Bognor, Littlehampton etc.) remains no overall control - Tories 20, Indy's 6, LDs 14, Lab 8, Greens 6, those three in bold could take control from the Tory/Indy's.
Both Crawley + Worthing were held by Labour, which gained overall control of each last year.
Adur (Shoreham/Lancing, etc.) remains Tory overall control, because there was no elections this year.

View attachment 373535
Good overview :)
Still a swathe of authorities through West Kent and the Weald where the vermin have lost to NoC but remain the largest party. That said, they were well and truly fucked across the SE.
 
Should be red all along the N.Kent coast, but Swale & Canterbury both have 3 or even 4 way NoC mixes now. Although, tbf to Swale, one reason why the LP can't yet mop up is the significant numbers of indies who broke the vermin stranglehold last time around and have held on.
 
Good overview :)
Still a swathe of authorities through West Kent and the Weald where the vermin have lost to NoC but remain the largest party. That said, they were well and truly fucked across the SE.

Aye, it's hard to tell with some of the NOC councils as to which way they will go, especially when there's a number of Indies - IME they tend to back the Tories, but not always.

I am interested with what happens in Mid-Sussex where the Tories and LDs are both on 20, or LDs/Lab/Greens and Tories/Indies are both on 25 - very messy! But in Arun the Tories/Indies are only on 26 compared with LDs/Lab/Greens on 28.
 
In terms of where the parties are at, rather than the actual local election seats/councils, I'd have thought it's not all that great for Labour,

It would leave them short of an overall majority in Westminster and:


I haven't looked beyond the headlines and which seats Labour are winning/not winning. There are also a lot of independent votes in play there that will be resdistributed at the general election. And a 7% lead is of course a decent lead. Same time, this feels like nothing more than the normal reaction you get against a governing party, mid term, nothing like the kind of wipeout that might have occurred in the Truss 'era'.


Is that doing a direct projection based on vote totals from these elections? Because that’s a bit dodgy due to lots of areas not voting (nothing where I live), so it’s not a true representation of the electorate’s will. Plus the usual domination of local issues in some areas which won’t have as much of an effect in a GE.
 
Lovely seeing the tories getting a good kicking. I wonder how much actual change it will mean to people seeing as how they're still setting the budgets so councils will be under the same limitations and have to make similar budget cuts. Government's also likely to cut non-tory council funding even more I'd have thought.
 
innit.
Lad lives down the Level end, not up on the middle-class mountain.
Aka muesli mountain :D

Labour majority in Brighton & Hove, first time in a long time! Massive shift in the Hanover & Elm Grove ward which has been the Green stronghold for all of that time - off you fuck!

E2a: I wouldn’t trust the rich middle class hippies that have voted Green for years who have now shifted. Scratch a hippy…
Were Labour actually any better last time? Don't entirely trust my memory on this but I'm fairly sure it was them who changed the housing register rules so you can't get on the list if you've been homeless in the last five years now, and they're responsible for our recycling being so shit too iirc.
 
Lovely seeing the tories getting a good kicking. I wonder how much actual change it will mean to people seeing as how they're still setting the budgets so councils will be under the same limitations and have to make similar budget cuts. Government's also likely to cut non-tory council funding even more I'd have thought.
This is often their strategy, fuckover local councils so they get the blame and potential electoral fallout when the GE comes around.
 
Presumably most of the ex-UKIP and crank right vote will have fallen back onto the Tories, and yet they still did this appallingly.

GE looks lost, expect some scorched earth policies over the next year or so, stay strong everybody.
 
Some of the reporting has been shit, the Argus (Sussex daily) has reported Labour winning 3 extra seats in Worthing, when it was only 1.

A couple of BBC reports have made the same false claim, and in one they went onto even quoting the Labour leader as being pleased with winning 1 extra seat.

In Worthing, Labour - who were already the largest party - took three seats from the Tories.
In a tweet, Beccy Cooper, the leader of Worthing Borough Council, thanked local residents for the election result.

"Fantastic to hold all our seats and to gain an additional fabulous councillor in Castle Ward," she said.

BBC :facepalm: :D
 
In terms of where the parties are at, rather than the actual local election seats/councils, I'd have thought it's not all that great for Labour,

It would leave them short of an overall majority in Westminster and:


I haven't looked beyond the headlines and which seats Labour are winning/not winning. There are also a lot of independent votes in play there that will be resdistributed at the general election. And a 7% lead is of course a decent lead. Same time, this feels like nothing more than the normal reaction you get against a governing party, mid term, nothing like the kind of wipeout that might have occurred in the Truss 'era'.


Think there are lots of ifs and buts about straight forward extrapolation of voting in these locals, especially as they didn't cover the whole UK , into a GE scenario. Overall Labour became the party with the biggest number of council seats , first time since 2002, however, they must have some anxiety about the number of votes that the Greens and others picked up. Of course, some of these votes may well go back to Labour, the Tories don't seem to be in a position to pick up votes from UKIP or Reform from these elections because both of them polled really badly.

I don't have much time for the Greens but they did pick up not only some of the 'left' Labour vote but also some of the expelled Labour members as candidates. Whilst I have doubt for example in Wythenshawe in Manchester that their success will translate into a GE vote there, if Labour do win the GE I can see the possibility of the Greens attracting the disillusioned vote rather than the far right do under Labour.

I think there is a lot of enthusiasm to get rid of the Tories, I think there is enthusiasm in some quarters for a Labour win, amongst some Labour voters for a non Corbyn led Labour Party but I can't see any real enthusiasm for Starmer himself despite the army of marketeers , influencers , speech writers and Guardian journalists.
 
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