European Elections 2019

[killer b]

We should take pleasure that even at +/- 5%, with the Lib Dems surging like this the only way is down for ChUK.

 

[brogdale]

Brexit is a wedge issue for both the Brexit Party and for the Lib Dems - I'd expect however they do in the EP elections their support will fall back by the time we get to a general as voters will be voting on a range of issues: difficult to know how far they'll fall back though, and both parties will be keen to keep brexit as a key issue.

Yep, but so many variables...date of GE, change of tory leader, 'progress' with withdrawal etc.

 

[Dogsauce]

Farage was saying he sees the Brexit party as the beginning of creating something like Italy’s five star movement, talking about direct democracy etc. Expect more racism and stuff like anti-vax bollocks as in Italy then. Is Bannon/US Oligarch money involved in any of this?

Interviewers should ask him something like “given a clear majority of the British public support renationalisation of the country’s railway operations, is that the kind of populist policy you would bring forward?”. Shine a light on his Thatcherite motivations.

 

[brogdale]

Farage was saying he sees the Brexit party as the beginning of creating something like Italy’s five star movement, talking about direct democracy etc. Expect more racism and stuff like anti-vax bollocks as in Italy then. Is Bannon/US Oligarch money involved in any of this?

Interviewers should ask him something like “given a clear majority of the British public support renationalisation of the country’s railway operations, is that the kind of populist policy you would bring forward?”. Shine a light on his Thatcherite motivations.

Yes, and unless and until Brexit is effected...the failure to leave will be the vehicle and springboard for sustained support for Farage & party. I don't think BRX will just fade after the Euros.

 

[Dogsauce]

All these movements seem to revolve around single figureheads, Grillo, Wilders, Le Pen, Farage. Where’s a good plane crash when you need one?

 

[Teaboy]

I do wonder how much can be gleamed from local and european elections. I was in the pub with a couple of cricket team mates the other day on the night of the local elections. They were both confused as to why there were elections happening at the start of May but we weren't voting until the end of the month. "Why not do it all on the same day?"

I explained that they were different elections and we had had our local elections last year. Both shrugged and went back to finishing their pints and talking about football. I consider myself quite politically engaged but I don't bother with the locals and probably won't with the Euros. Just a combination of factors.

Its different at General Elections, people are far more aware and involved.

 

[Poi E]

All these movements seem to revolve around single figureheads, Grillo, Wilders, Le Pen, Farage. Where’s a good plane crash when you need one?

Farage survived his. You can't kill him.

 

[Supine]

Just postal voted.

The form had a little fold at the bottom of the paper. Underneath that was the box to vote for Tommy Robinson. I almost didn't notice it

 

[brogdale]

London specific Euro polling from YG for QMUL:

European poll results:
(2014 election results in brackets):

L 24 (36)
Brexit 20 (UKIP 16%)
LD 17 (7)
Green 14 (9)
Con 10 (22)

 

[cupid_stunt]

Just had the Labour election leaflet delivered by the postie, so that's them & the Brexit Party so far.

 

[SpackleFrog]

London specific Euro polling from YG for QMUL:

European poll results:
(2014 election results in brackets):

L 24 (36)
Brexit 20 (UKIP 16%)
LD 17 (7)
Green 14 (9)
Con 10 (22)

'Kinell, 20% in London?

I put that bet on by the way - Brexit Party to get between 35 and 39.99% of the vote. Got 4/1 on it on Friday, it's now 3/1 but still good value I reckon.

 

[andysays]

All these movements seem to revolve around single figureheads, Grillo, Wilders, Le Pen, Farage. Where’s a good plane crash when you need one?

What we really need is a meteorite strike while all four of them are meeting somewhere...

 

[Smokeandsteam]

'Kinell, 20% in London?

I put that bet on by the way - Brexit Party to get between 35 and 39.99% of the vote. Got 4/1 on it on Friday, it's now 3/1 but still good value I reckon.

In the referendum over 1.5 Million Londoners voted leave. Barking & Dagengham, Barnet, Bexley, Havering, Hillingdon and Sutton Boroughs all voted to leave.

I think you'll be collecting on the bet by the way, there is a real insurgent momentum behind the BP.

 

[SpackleFrog]

In the referendum over 1.5 Million Londoners voted leave. Barking & Dagengham, Barnet, Bexley, Havering, Hillingdon and Sutton Boroughs all voted to leave.

I think you'll be collecting on the bet by the way, there is a real insurgent momentum behind the BP.

Maybe... I'm nervous they'll get over 40% now though! 40%+ was 8/1. Now slashed to 4/1.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Maybe... I'm nervous they'll get over 40% now though! 40%+ was 8/1. Now slashed to 4/1.

Yes, the polling today suggests that the labour vote seems to be collapsing so 40% plus is definitely possible.

Up thread there seems to be an attempt by Teaboy to explain this surge as due to voter confusion. There is undoubtedly some of this and the Euro elections are traditionally opportunities for protest votes.

But this feels more existential, more lasting ((in terms of the turn away from the establishment parties) and more problematic for a variety of reasons. It reminds me of Scotland in 2016 in many ways, where the vote for the SNP was not a protest against against a lazy and corrupt labour party, it was a crossing of a rubicon.

Of course there is a key difference - the SNP had a worked out social democratic programme that could be used to motivate and agitate its supporters. Going past the Euros the BP'S achilles remains its lack of a programme. The key moment will be when they do.

 

[Teaboy]

Up thread there seems to be an attempt by Teaboy to explain this surge as due to voter confusion. There is undoubtedly some of this and the Euro elections are traditionally opportunities for protest votes.

I think I mean apathy rather than confusion, people are just not that bothered about local and euro elections. The euros are going to be a single issue vote and its going to be those who feel Brexit has been robbed that are going to be more motivated to vote. Even if Farrage's lot do get 40% does that mean that there has suddenly been a big swing to leave from remain? I don't think so. Similarly I'd take with a pinch of salt the idea that large win for Farrage would translate into seats at a GE.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think I mean apathy rather than confusion, people are just not that bothered about local and euro elections. The euros are going to be a single issue vote and its going to be those who feel Brexit has been robbed that are going to be more motivated to vote. Even if Farrage's lot do get 40% does that mean that there has suddenly been a big swing to leave from remain? I don't think so. Similarly I'd take with a pinch of salt the idea that large win for Farrage would translate into seats at a GE.

What if the next GE happens this year? With no solution to the Brexit question in sight?

 

[Wilf]

I don't feel like I'm in a position to make any kind of predictions with confidence in these crazy times. I don't see the Tories dropping any lower than 4th at worst in the Euro polls, but who knows. What will be interesting is when the Tory-Lab talks come to an end, what that does to the polls. A customs union stitch up pushes brexit up to 40% probably, whereas another failure to agree anything also boosts them. Tories have already been squeezed to near the limit, though they can always lose a few more percentage points. It's probably Labour that will get squeezed next - pro-brexit labour voters going for the Libs and brexit minded labour voters heading for farage.

As I would guess for most anti-capitalist posters, the brexit party vote is an unhealthy-healthy thing. It's great to see a massive Fuck You vote, but less so seeing it head for a bunch of populists and racists. Again, the sad thing is the absence of a working class politics to express that anger. That's for another thread though.

 

[Wilf]

My Mum, right wing labourite all her life, deserted them yesterday and postal voted for the Libs (as anti-brexit statement). Took me all time to not lose it on the way to the postbox.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I don't feel like I'm in a position to make any kind of predictions with confidence in these crazy times. I don't see the Tories dropping any lower than 4th at worst in the Euro polls, but who knows. What will be interesting is when the Tory-Lab talks come to an end, what that does to the polls. A customs union stitch up pushes brexit up to 40% probably, whereas another failure to agree anything also boosts them. Tories have already been squeezed to near the limit, though they can always lose a few more percentage points. It's probably Labour that will get squeezed next - pro-brexit labour voters going for the Libs and brexit minded labour voters heading for farage.

As I would guess for most anti-capitalist posters, the brexit party vote is an unhealthy-healthy thing. It's great to see a massive Fuck You vote, but less so seeing it head for a bunch of populists and racists. Again, the sad thing is the absence of a working class politics to express that anger. That's for another thread though.

I can see Tories getting less than Lib Dems. If you're usually a Tory voter and you don't want Brexit, you'll be alienated enough to vote Lib Dem. If you usually vote Tory and you do want Brexit, you'll be alienated enough to vote for the Brexit Party. There really don't seem to be any clear reasons to vote Tory in an election they basically wish wasn't happening.

 

[Teaboy]

What if the next GE happens this year? With no solution to the Brexit question in sight?

Very difficult to say because the tories would have a new leader and may have changed tact considerably. This could easily spike Farage's cannons and would probably make Labour's life easier as well. It all depends...

 

[Wilf]

I can see Tories getting less than Lib Dems. If you're usually a Tory voter and you don't want Brexit, you'll be alienated enough to vote Lib Dem. If you usually vote Tory and you do want Brexit, you'll be alienated enough to vote for the Brexit Party. There really don't seem to be any clear reasons to vote Tory in an election they basically wish wasn't happening.

Yeah, I suspect the libs might end up gathering up the more committed anti-brexit vote, which may well be coming from Labour, but in turn guarantees the tories end up in 4th. But that shift to the libs probably fucks the chuks. Maybe I'm just ancient and still thinking in terms of parties having 'core votes', which may stop the tories going into complete meltdown. The results of the euros will certainly look like we've got a 4 or even 5 party system, but the fpp system in the next general election may make it look like the 2 party system is stronger than it is. Cue further campaigns for PR.

 

[brogdale]

Very difficult to say because the tories would have a new leader and may have changed tact considerably. This could easily spike Farage's cannons and would probably make Labour's life easier as well. It all depends...

A 'no-dealer' leading the Tories would indeed make life much more straightforward for Lab...they'd have something against which to take an oppositional stance. The problem ATM is that the leadership actually pretty much agree with much of May's WA.

 

[treelover]

London specific Euro polling from YG for QMUL:

European poll results:
(2014 election results in brackets):

L 24 (36)
Brexit 20 (UKIP 16%)
LD 17 (7)
Green 14 (9)
Con 10 (22)

20% in London, isn't that quite high.

 

[brogdale]

20% in London, isn't that quite high.

Of those intending to vote? I don't think so.
Though my view may be coloured by the fact that I live in a (57%) Leave voting London borough.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Of those intending to vote? I don't think so.
Though my view may be coloured by the fact that I live in a (57%) Leave voting London borough.

Fair. There is a bit of a narrative that everyone in That London fervently loves the EU which we may be influenced by.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Very difficult to say because the tories would have a new leader and may have changed tact considerably. This could easily spike Farage's cannons and would probably make Labour's life easier as well. It all depends...

Then you would have a split Tory Party - and why vote for the Tory split if you already liked the Brexit Party?

Not saying people wouldn't return to the Brexity split of the party but it's not guaranteed.

 

[Teaboy]

Then you would have a split Tory Party - and why vote for the Tory split if you already liked the Brexit Party?

Not saying people wouldn't return to the Brexity split of the party but it's not guaranteed.

Because it will be all 'vote Farage, get Corbyn'. Fear of Corbyn will bring tory voters back to their natural home. It will be much easier with a more outwardly pro Brexit leader as well.

 

[Mr Moose]

Because it will be all 'vote Farage, get Corbyn'. Fear of Corbyn will bring tory voters back to their natural home. It will be much easier with a more outwardly pro Brexit leader as well.

Yes. No sign yet it’s more than a blip, more like the campaign for real conservatism.

At the right time the Conservative media will remember Corbyn and reanimate the Tory corpse, breathing fresh life into Labour too.

Any ‘sea change’ in British politics that involves the Lib Dems gaining ground is pretty much guaranteed to have no permanence.

 

[Orang Utan]

I voted for this wally. I blame the Labour Party