European Elections 2019

[Tooter]

+28%

I see the representative of the working class Annunziata rees Mogg who joined the Conservatives at the age of five appears......oh and a CEO that does 'deals for a living'....oh and a soldier...oh and Jane 'some people call me Boadicea' Mummery....that should be most bases covered to hoodwink the braindead politically illiterate masses of England into voting for them.

 

[SpackleFrog]

+28%

I see the representative of the working class Annunziata rees Mogg who joined the Conservatives at the age of five appears......oh and a CEO that does 'deals for a living'....oh and a soldier...oh and Jane 'some people call me Boadicea' Mummery....that should be most bases covered to hoodwink the braindead politically illiterate masses of England into voting for them.

Who should the "brain dead politically illiterate masses" vote for?

 

[Mr Moose]

+28%

I see the representative of the working class Annunziata rees Mogg who joined the Conservatives at the age of five appears......oh and a CEO that does 'deals for a living'....oh and a soldier...oh and Jane 'some people call me Boadicea' Mummery....that should be most bases covered to hoodwink the braindead politically illiterate masses of England into voting for them.

What does that say about the Remain arguments?

 

[Tooter]

The Brexit Party? probably a bit strong....point taken....frustration!

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Who should the "brain dead politically illiterate masses" vote for?

Lord Adonis.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Well the braindead masses won't be voting Tory, that's for sure.

European elections: Tories could come sixth, officials fear

They're not even campaigning. The strategy seems to be to just take the hit! Which might actually be a better strategy than Labour have

I can get 8/1 on the Brexit Party getting 40% and I'm quite tempted to be completely honest. Is that a mad punt or is it actually a really decent price...?

 

[kebabking]

Well the braindead masses won't be voting Tory, that's for sure.

European elections: Tories could come sixth, officials fear

They're not even campaigning. The strategy seems to be to just take the hit! Which might actually be a better strategy than Labour have

I can get 8/1 on the Brexit Party getting 40% and I'm quite tempted to be completely honest. Is that a mad punt or is it actually a really decent price...?

I wouldn't put next month's food budget on it, but I wouldn't fall of my chair if it came to pass....

 

[SpackleFrog]

I wouldn't put next month's food budget on it, but I wouldn't fall of my chair if it came to pass....

I am very tempted to stick £20 on it. It's quite possible Labour and Tories won't manage 40% between them. In fact Tories could get less than 10%. But I think the smaller parties/explicitly remain parties will probably just about get more than 20% combined. Maybe 35-39.99% at 4/1 is the better option.

Does anyone think the Brexit Party will get less than 35%?

 

[eoin_k]

Let's hope for the best.

Yes indeed, the best is precisely what we should hope for, but while preparing for the worst as you no doubt agree. Welcome to the boards and may I be the first of many (let's hope!) to thank you for your contribution.

 

[Dogsauce]

‘Tories coming sixth’ is just classic expectations management, although they tried that in the locals too and actually came out worse than their worst case scenario . Let’s hope for similar luck this time around.

 

[rowan]

They are actually (for once) quite important, because of Brexit and the need for manipulation of the European parliament and thereby the council to suit our own agenda. Or be slightly less screwed over.

Obviously the right across Europe get this and are stepping up the pressure, as they hope to get rid of the current administration and get more political power within the EU.

As the liberals and centre will be getting a trouncing across Europe, now is definitely the time for the left to pull out some votes. So I will be voting Labour, if they actually happen... best of a bad bunch and better than abstaining and letting the right dominate.

The rise of the right scares the life out of me, so I vote Labour in all elections (apart from last weeks locals, only 1 candidate from each party so I voted Green as well). I don't want to live in a world where the right dominate, nothing good can come from them.

 

[Leafster]

I've had a couple of baffling conversations with my neighbour over the last few days. In the week, she'd asked me if the postman had been. I confirmed he had and said I'd only received a European Election leaflet. She looked puzzled and asked me what election I was on about. I explained. She was still puzzled, asking me again why we were voting in a "European" election. I explained again. She's in her seventies but said she'd never heard of European elections before I'd mentioned them just the "normal" ones we have. Knowing that she's a big fan of Nigel I asked her how she thought Nigel got elected as an MEP if there hadn't been elections. She said she'd voted UKIP but didn't think she'd ever voted for UKIP in a European election as she didn't know they existed.

Today, she asked me to explain the European elections again. She said she'd talked to her brother after we'd spoken in the week and he didn't know what European elections were either. He'd asked her why we vote in European elections when "they" don't vote in ours! He told her he knew there was an election coming up but didn't know if he could vote for the Brexit party as it wasn't a General Election.

They both seem to want to "vote for Nigel" even though they don't seem to understand the reason why we're having to have the election in first place or even that Nigel is already an MEP.

I'm not the most politically engaged person but I was staggered by the lack of knowledge my neighbour and her brother had and, I suppose, I'm wondering if other people have come across the same level of ignorance.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I suppose, I'm wondering if other people have come across the same level of ignorance.

No, never, that's a corker!

 

[Leafster]

No, never, that's a corker!

I'm still bewildered by it really. It's not as though she doesn't watch the news or read a newspaper *.

*Daily Mail

 

[Poi E]

Ask her what she thinks of independence for England.

 

[Leafster]

Ask her what she thinks of independence for England.

Do I have to explain who Tam Dalyell was too?

ETA: To be honest, I try to avoid talking to her about any political issue because, as you can probably imagine, we don't share much common ground.

 

[brogdale]

Tories in 5th place with their Euro ‘core’ support heading to a single digit number?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Tories in 5th place with their Euro ‘core’ support heading to a single digit number?

I think this yougov poll could a an 'outer', I guess the Tory figure could be right, but I am struggling with that figure of only 16% for Labour, when other recent polls have them at 21-26%

One thing for sure, the Chuckle UK lot are going to be gutted!



ETA: Just noticed that wikipedia haven't included figures for UKIP, SNP & PC, and they are not included under 'others', as that's showing at 0%. I assume yougov included them in the poll.

 

[redsquirrel]

I think this yougov poll could a an 'outer', I guess the Tory figure could be right, but I am struggling with that figure of only 16% for Labour, when other recent polls have them at 21-26%

Yes, I tend to agree. Could be real movement since LEs but one to take with some salt.

One thing for sure, the Chuckle UK lot are going to be gutted!

That I think probably is reflective, YouGov, ComRes and Opinium all showing drops in their vote since LEs, their voters do appear to be moving to the LDs.

 

[Poi E]

SNP on course for almost 50% of the Scottish vote. Doing better than the Brexit Party.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Tories in 5th place with their Euro ‘core’ support heading to a single digit number?

I think this yougov poll could a an 'outer', I guess the Tory figure could be right, but I am struggling with that figure of only 16% for Labour, when other recent polls have them at 21-26%

One thing for sure, the Chuckle UK lot are going to be gutted!

View attachment 170851

The nation just isn't ready for pure Chucklism at this stage. More work needs to be done, comrades.

 

[Dogsauce]

Yellow scum is the worry, looks like they might be eating into Labour’s vote. Not seeing any of their campaigning or them getting much media attention - where is this coming from, Facebook?

 

[MickiQ]

I think this yougov poll could a an 'outer', I guess the Tory figure could be right, but I am struggling with that figure of only 16% for Labour, when other recent polls have them at 21-26%

One thing for sure, the Chuckle UK lot are going to be gutted!

View attachment 170851

ETA: Just noticed that wikipedia haven't included figures for UKIP, SNP & PC, and they are not included under 'others', as that's showing at 0%. I assume yougov included them in the poll.

I am going to steal Chuckle UK off you and shamelessly pass it off as my own
I think there was a brief period after they first walked out that they had a chance to make a mark and establish themselves as a relevant force in UK politics certainly the Guardian did its best but they seem to have almost wilfully wasted every chance they had like a bunch of angry teenagers not sure what they were rebelling against, but wanting to let people know they were upset.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I am going to steal Chuckle UK off you and shamelessly pass it off as my own

It just seems to fit, doesn't it?

I've used it a couple of times now, I was hoping it would catch on.

 

[brogdale]

I think this yougov poll could a an 'outer', I guess the Tory figure could be right, but I am struggling with that figure of only 16% for Labour, when other recent polls have them at 21-26%

Oh yes, any one poll could well be an outlier, and we'd need to watch others for the trend...but the collapsing Tory (& to a slightly lesser extent Labour) vote is looking like a real and unsurprising trend for the Euros.

I suppose what is of more import, psephologically speaking, is quite how far the habit of ditching the main parties spills over to the next election (GE?) and whether or not the tories take a greater, sustained hit. If so, that could open up the prospect of a Labour led coalition government based on a surprisingly low % share of the popular vote.

 

[killer b]

It might be an outlier, but there's a clear trend towards the lib dems at the moment.

They've run a great campaign so far, so it's not that surprising - although I think their relative success in the local elections has helped a lot in making them the most obvious vote if being anti-brexit is your main driver. Also Gina Miller's tactical voting website - which seems to have had a lot of purchase with the soft left vote in my orbit - is recommending a vote for the lib dems in every region in England, I reckon that's probably had a reasonable sized impact.

 

[brogdale]

It might be an outlier, but there's a clear trend towards the lib dems at the moment.

They've run a great campaign so far, so it's not that surprising - although I think their relative success in the local elections has helped a lot in making them the most obvious vote if being anti-brexit is your main driver. Also Gina Miller's tactical voting website - which seems to have had a lot of purchase with the soft left vote in my orbit - is recommending a vote for the lib dems in every region in England, I reckon that's probably had a reasonable sized impact.

Hence the panicky attempt at rebranding from Starmer & Watson.

 

[Crispy]

I suppose what is of more import, psephologically speaking, is quite how far the habit of ditching the main parties spills over to the next election (GE?) and whether or not the tories take a greater, sustained hit. If so, that could open up the prospect of a Labour led coalition government based on a surprisingly low % share of the popular vote.

Latest ComRes has BRX 1 point above CON. These guys translate that to 51 seats and a labour majority:



Although I don't see how any sort of prediction can be made when there's no precedent. Could go anywhere.

 

[brogdale]

Latest ComRes has BRX 1 point above CON. These guys translate that to 51 seats and a labour majority:



Although I don't see how any sort of prediction can be made when there's no precedent. Could go anywhere.

Agreed; it'll be after the Euros that the Brx numbers will be worth watching to see how much support they sustain and at what cost to the big two.

 

[killer b]

Brexit is a wedge issue for both the Brexit Party and for the Lib Dems - I'd expect however they do in the EP elections their support will fall back by the time we get to a general as voters will be voting on a range of issues: difficult to know how far they'll fall back though, and both parties will be keen to keep brexit as a key issue.