European Elections 2019

[redsquirrel]

Have you actually read what I, planetgeli and others have posted?
Where were the big losses of seats for Labour in the LEs? Is every vote equal?

 

[Kaka Tim]

But leave voters who feel particularly strongly about brexit aren't going to vote labour anyway. Those votes are gone - labour cant credibly pitch itself as a leave party and its "compromise" position loses votes from both sides whilst gaining none.
Their is no meaningful compromise on brexit - any deal is demonstrably shitter than staying in - so its gets rejected by both brexiteers and remainers on that basis.
And the identification of "remain" as liberal middle class vs brexit as "trad working class" is trite. A large chunk of working class people voted remain (and a larger chunk didn't vote at all). Labour needs to challenge this perception rather than pander to it as some of its more pro-brexit elements do.

 

[Pickman's model]

Sigh. This sweeping generalisation isn't true, particularly outside of the London 'bubble' (and it is a bubble, I speak to friends and relatives in London who should know better). Labour's problem is that, as redsquirrel constantly points out, electorally marginal constituencies that Labour needs to win often voted 'leave'. Any second referendum bs risks leaving these people behind. If a straight referendum was held now, which it won't be, on 'leave' or 'remain' you risk getting exactly the same result, or one not much different.

it's very convenient, isn't it, that there has been manufactured this opposition to a second referendum which places a decision on the actual terms of departure before the electorate. back in 2016 the question was 'do you want to leave'; the issue of what leave looks like needs a decision, because otherwise, in two or five or ten years there may be some almighty row about why the matter was never put. i've long seen, i'm sure other people have long seen, whines about mass immigration along the lines of 'we never voted for this'. why is it a really good idea to refuse to put a deal to the electorate when the refusal simply kicks problems with it down the line that can easily be prevented?

 

[teqniq]

Hunt: push for no-deal Brexit would be 'political suicide'

The UK will be forced into a general election that will obliterate the Conservative party if a new leader pushes for the UK to leave the EU with no deal in October, Jeremy Hunt has said....

Yes please.

 

[redsquirrel]

But leave voters who feel particularly strongly about brexit aren't going to vote labour anyway. Those votes are gone -

The absolute hardcore 'no deal' lot maybe but even lower end of estimates put about 25% of Labour voters in favour of Leave. And they need to not only hold onto those voters but gain more Leave voters if they want to win a majority.

The simple fact is that any party that wants to get a parliamentary majority needs to be able to appeal to both those that voted Remain and those that voted Leave, not in equal measures but to some degree. A LP with some sort of mild Leave can do that, an LP pushing for a second vote where it will back Remain loses much of that crucial Leave support it requires.

Your position essentially seems to be the same as Masons, and Smokeandsteam is absolutely correct about where that ends up.

 

[redsquirrel]

Kaka Tim (and anyone else) if Labour go full out Remain how do they hold Peterborough (60% Leave)?

EDIT: Let alone Ashfield (70% Leave)

 

[Don Troooomp]

Whatever way we look at the vote, we have to understand we have a serious problem, and massaging numbers to show a likely remain win in a potential future second referendum isn't going to help us.
What we need to do is make bloody sure the public don't fall for any more leave scare stories, and to get our side of things into the news with logical, reasonable argument.
We aren't going to do ourselves any good until we can show we're right, but BJ and his bastard team are very likely to stuff us before we can do it because they've been empowered by this vote, and Labour leaders are likely to be running scared at the moment so we can't rely on them to do much of any use.

 

[redsquirrel]

What the fuck is this "we" I'm certainly not on the same side as a nasty sexist, liberal loon like you.

 

[Gerry1time]

Libdems say they will target tory leadership contenders-boris,raab,mcvey,hunt,leadsom,all of whom had higher remain votes in their constituencies than hard brexit.

Tbf, it's not the Lib Dems, it's Ed Davey as part of his Lib Dem leadership pitch. He was part of the 'decapitation strategy' the Lib Dems tried on the Tories in 2005, given lots of the Tory top people at the time were in potentially Lib Dem winnable seats. It failed then, only removing Tim Collins, and arguably helped the Tories they were targetting to hang on. So it's basically a rehashed failed idea to grab some headlines, and one I can't see the Lib Dems doing at the expense of more winnable seats given how little money they have.

 

[planetgeli]

why is it a really good idea to refuse to put a deal to the electorate when the refusal simply kicks problems with it down the line that can easily be prevented?

The answer to this question entirely depends what question is asked on the second referendum ballot paper. And people’s ability to understand the question, which depends on what information they are given about what any deal means. Or even what no deal means should that be on the paper.

 

[krtek a houby]

Whatever way we look at the vote, we have to understand we have a serious problem, and massaging numbers to show a likely remain win in a potential future second referendum isn't going to help us.
What we need to do is make bloody sure the public don't fall for any more leave scare stories, and to get our side of things into the news with logical, reasonable argument.
We aren't going to do ourselves any good until we can show we're right, but BJ and his bastard team are very likely to stuff us before we can do it because they've been empowered by this vote, and Labour leaders are likely to be running scared at the moment so we can't rely on them to do much of any use.

I'm just disappointed SF didn't do as well as hoped. The most important thing is that the 6 counties are not thrown into chaos by the British politicians who don't give a shite about them.

 

[Pickman's model]

The answer to this question entirely depends what question is asked on the second referendum ballot paper. And people’s ability to understand the question, which depends on what information they are given about what any deal means. Or even what no deal means should that be on the paper.

If 20 years ago the electorate across Ireland could understand the settlement known as the gfa, establishing the legislative assembly and the cross-border institutions, and in the 26 cos changing the constitution, I think we should be able to rely on the good sense of a population which has been bombarded with all things brexit for more than three years

 

[LDC]

.

 

[brogdale]

.

Are you in the right thread?

 

[Kaka Tim]

Kaka Tim (and anyone else) if Labour go full out Remain how do they hold Peterborough (60% Leave)?

EDIT: Let alone Ashfield (70% Leave)

But if those voters are voting on the basis of supporting brexit - then they are lost to labour anyway. But so are the those who are voting on the basis of opposing brexit. The latter group can be won back - the former cant. Its shit - but labour is in a bind and there is no good outcome - just damage limitation.
Labour has to go remain and reform and do its best to convince w/class brexit voters that their interests are served by labour government's other policies.

 

[kabbes]

Interesting (to me). My constituency, Mole Valley, was about 53% remain, 47% leave in the referendum. Proper Tory heartland — the useless Tory MP gets over 50% in general elections. In the local elections, in turned Lib Dem. So that gives a flavour of its general background.

This election it had:

Lib Dem 37.4%
Brexit 33.6%
Green 11.1%
Tory 11.0%
ChUK 4.1%
Labour 2.8%

So that’s again about 53% for hardcore remain.

I can’t imagine the Tories are worried about losing Mole Valley in a general election — I imagine Brexit Party voters will all go back to the Tories — but it’s still properly shocking to see them behind the Greens and 27% behind the Libs

 

[AnandLeo]

I think the EU election results are a farce. These Turkeys longing for Christmas!

 

[SpackleFrog]

We aren't going to do ourselves any good until we can show we're right

You're fucked then pal.

 

[redsquirrel]

But if those voters are voting on the basis of supporting brexit - then they are lost to labour anyway. But so are the those who are voting on the basis of opposing brexit. The latter group can be won back - the former cant.

What is this contention based on? People don't vote on only one issue, the fact that Labour won (just) Ashfield shows that longtime Labour voters that want to Leave the EU can find LP that leans Remain palatable. But a LP that goes full on for Remain is a very different kettle of fish, something that some won't put up with. And there doesn't need to be many to see a shit of load of seats go.

Labour has to go remain and reform and do its best to convince w/class brexit voters that their interests are served by labour government's other policies.

You do realise you have ended up arguing the same line as Mason, Thornberry, Watson and Blair.

The risk for Labour is that if it doesn’t put forward a set of policies that can command support in the centre as well as on the left then it can’t get to a majority. On Europe he [Corbyn] has just got to come to a clear position. Both party leaderships have made the same mistake which is to think that it is possible to sit on the fence on Europe and appeal to both sides. The European elections show that isn’t possible.”

Your strategy seems to be the same as Mason's, concentrate on the inner cities with their floating voters and write off the leave supporting LP heartlands, with the long time Labour supporters.You are arguing for replacing longtime loyal Labour voters in key marginals with fluctuating voters in metropolitan seats most of which will fall Labour anyway.

 

[planetgeli]

It’s an interesting dichotomy, this desire from Remainers who seek wish fulfilment while also presumably seeking electoral success for Labour.

Well, when I say interesting...

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think Labour's approach to brexit has been broadly correct if poorly articulated, but I can't see how the leadership resists backing a second referendum now. I think a leadership challenge with the right candidate, fought on these lines would win, and they know it too.

Not particularly picking on you killer but this and some other responses have got me thinking.

The thing with this idea that Labour were right to offer some sort of compromise soft Brexit which would please most people is that it seems to be premised on the idea that Labour has to find a way of pleasing both sets of voters based on what they want now rather than articulate a vision that could appeal to everyone. Which is, to be fair, not dissimilar to the triangulation approach of New Labour.

A lot of opposition to leaving the EU is motivated - particularly among people who genuinely would vote Labour as opposed to those who are more likely to be attracted by the Lib Dems - by an understanding of Brexit as a racist/nationalist project. Articulating a positive vision of the UK outside the EU, not because it's what people voted for blah blah but because it would be *better* could win over voters on both sides and change peoples minds.

Equally, articulating a positive vision of remaining in the EU which is markedly different to the catastrophising approach of most remainers (ie economic chaos if we leave) could have the same effect, although I've no idea how that could be achieved.

There wasn't exactly a strong narrative in the mainstream in 2017 that what people wanted to vote for a more anti-austerity/social democratic Labour Party but they did vote for Corbyn's Labour in huge numbers. The conversation now though is all about what voters want rather than what is needed.

 

[Kaka Tim]

But are the labour heartlands "leave supporting"? I dont think its that simple. And how important is it to them? Those for whom its a big deal are lost anyway.
Yes - labour going remain will cost them - but their present position is demonstrably costing them more. There is enough political cover now to make the case that Brexit is fucked - and its been fucked by the tories - there are far more urgent issues that need addressing. Minds can be changed.
And the first part of Blairs quoute (blah balh labour must move to the centre) doesn't really connect with the rest - "fence sitting on brexit wont work" - but it wont, it isn't working. It did up to a point - but not any more.
I dont think labours brexit position was every really about winning votes - it was about mantaining party unity. But is has reached the end of its road.
Most people are sick of the situation and want it to be over. But - and this argument needs to be made - anything other than cancelling the whole shebang - will ensure it drags on and on for years. Deal or no deal.

 

[SpackleFrog]

But are the labour heartlands "leave supporting"? I dont think its that simple. And how important is it to them? Those for whom its a big deal are lost anyway.
Yes - labour going remain will cost them - but their present position is demonstrably costing them more. There is enough political cover now to make the case that Brexit is fucked - and its been fucked by the tories - there are far more urgent issues that need addressing. Minds can be changed.
And the first part of Blairs quoute (blah balh labour must move to the centre) doesn't really connect with the rest - "fence sitting on brexit wont work" - but it wont, it isn't working. It did up to a point - but not any more.
I dont think labours brexit position was every really about winning votes - it was about mantaining party unity. But is has reached the end of its road.
Most people are sick of the situation and want it to be over. But - and this argument needs to be made - anything other than cancelling the whole shebang - will ensure it drags on and on for years. Deal or no deal.

Why are traditional laboru voters for whom Brexit is a big deal "lost anyway"? Would they be lost if Labour articulated a vision of leave?

 

[Mr Moose]

What is this contention based on? People don't vote on only one issue, the fact that Labour won (just) Ashfield shows that longtime Labour voters that want to Leave the EU can find LP that leans Remain palatable. But a LP that goes full on for Remain is a very different kettle of fish, something that some won't put up with. And there doesn't need to be many to see a shit of load of seats go.
You do realise you have ended up arguing the same line as Mason, Thornberry, Watson and Blair.

Your strategy seems to be the same as Mason's, concentrate on the inner cities with their floating voters and write off the leave supporting LP heartlands, with the long time Labour supporters.You are arguing for replacing longtime loyal Labour voters in key marginals with fluctuating voters in metropolitan seats most of which will fall Labour anyway.

I agree with most of what you write here. Trouble is there are many fucked up outcomes for Labour, such as the party that enables a Tory Brexit, damned by those floaters. It is balanced on the points of several sharp swords.

I would like to see it pursue the compromise option that gets us out and beyond. But the fetish that Brexit has become also needs chopping down to size. The nation has become hysterical about something that offers little in and of itself.

 

[co-op]

I can’t imagine the Tories are worried about losing Mole Valley in a general election — I imagine Brexit Party voters will all go back to the Tories — but it’s still properly shocking to see them behind the Greens and 27% behind the Libs

The tory whips used to write off European elections as 'one-night-stand' elections, i.e loads of their voters sneak off and have a little extra-marital tryst with UKIP in the euros but in the end they're married to the Conservative Party and they'll always come back. It'll be interesting to see whether that pattern can hold up now that we're dealing with an actual real Brexit rather than the middle-aged fantasy version pre-referendum.

 

[Proper Tidy]

It's clear what they're doing now isn't working for the people who voted for them in the past, because they voted remain.

Depends what you mean by the past. 2017 voters, heavily remain. But what about typical labour voters for 15, 10, what about its traditional post war base, does labour just write them off

 

[kabbes]

The tory whips used to write off European elections as 'one-night-stand' elections, i.e loads of their voters sneak off and have a little extra-marital tryst with UKIP in the euros but in the end they're married to the Conservative Party and they'll always come back. It'll be interesting to see whether that pattern can hold up now that we're dealing with an actual real Brexit rather than the middle-aged fantasy version pre-referendum.

Indeed. And the problem they have now is that the trysts are not just the Brexiters voting Brexit but also the remainers voting LibDem/Green. It’s less clear to me that the latter will so readily return to the Tories as things stand, and it’s only a Tory-> Lib swing that could actually hurt them come the election.

 

[redsquirrel]

But are the labour heartlands "leave supporting"? I dont think its that simple.

Many are - Ashfield, Bolsover, Hartlepool, Scunthorpe, Don Valley.

And how important is it to them? Those for whom its a big deal are lost anyway.Yes - labour going remain will cost them - but their present position is demonstrably costing them more.

On what basis are you making this claim? LE results are not a good proxy for GEs but they are a damn site better then euro election results and where Labour lost heavily it was in these Leave supporting heartlands.

There is enough political cover now to make the case that Brexit is fucked - and its been fucked by the tories - there are far more urgent issues that need addressing. Minds can be changed.
...
Most people are sick of the situation and want it to be over. But - and this argument needs to be made - anything other than cancelling the whole shebang - will ensure it drags on and on for years. Deal or no deal.

So how is your strategy not the same as Mason's? Give up on the leave voters (a non negligible proportion of which are/were long time Labour backers) and concentrate on the inner city socially liberal voters, voters that are far more fickle in their support? If you are going to argue this line for political reasons then ok I can't agree with you but fine, but it to argue it on electoral reasons is false.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Why are traditional laboru voters for whom Brexit is a big deal "lost anyway"? Would they be lost if Labour articulated a vision of leave?

But labour has been touting a version of leave - but committed leave voters dont buy it - and they dont but the tory version either - so they've gone to brexit party. Labour hasn't got a credible leave policy - not one that is going to appeal to actual leavers. They cant "outbrexit" the tories - never mind farage.

Remain is now the only logical position. Brexit is a massive drag on any hope of any sort of positive progress - its needs to get the fuck out of the way. The damage is done - the only deal is a shit deal that nobody wants - and no deal will be massively damaging and is just a longer, more disruptive route to the same shit deal after the UK gets schooled in the reality of international capitalism via a fucking over by the WTO.
Housing, public services, poverty, inequality, the environment - massive red light flashing on all these areas.

 

[SpackleFrog]

But labour has been touting a version of leave - but committed leave voters dont buy it - and they dont but the tory version either - so they've gone to brexit party. Labour hasn't got a credible leave policy - not one that is going to appeal to actual leavers. They cant "outbrexit" the tories - never mind farage.

Not for a long time. In the 2017 GE Corbyn talked about a 'jobs first' Brexit with 'no new immigration controls' and did really well, but since around Christmas the 2nd ref noise has been louder than anything else. As far as most people are concerned - ie people who do watch/read news but not every day - Labour are a Remain party promising a second referendum.

It's absolutely true that Labour have lost a lot of hardcore Remain voters who do want a clear anti-Brexit policy in these last two elections but they've also lost a lot of Leave voters, and that isn't because Leave voters think their version of leave is unconvincing, it's because they think Labour is a Remain party.