European Elections 2019

[ferrelhadley]

I think it's a mistake to split it into left and right but surely if you're not the kind of lefty who considers Labour and the Greens centrists then you don't consider the LDs properly right wing

I was going with what I thought urban would think rather than the general populace.

 

[Kaka Tim]

reasonable chunk of tory vote went to lib dems. they can say goodbye to them if they go for hard brexit - and still wont get back all of those that went to farage. They are fucked.

 

[Pickman's model]

Waiting for a general election a year later?

You think it'll be next year?

 

[Pickman's model]

reasonable chunk of tory vote went to lib dems. they can say goodbye to them if they go for hard brexit - and still wont get back all of those that went to farage. They are fucked.

Any ge will see a great decline in bp's fortunes

 

[not-bono-ever]

give me a definitive list of good things about today that i can cut out and keep in my wallet

 

[kebabking]

reasonable chunk of tory vote went to lib dems. they can say goodbye to them if they go for hard brexit - and still wont get back all of those that went to farage. They are fucked.

I disagree - if the Tories go for (or end up with) a hard brexit then yes, some of those Tories who went LD won't return in the near term, but once it's done and the next GE is the Tories or a Corbynite Labour party, then pragmatism will prevail.

 

[DexterTCN]

anyone seen any stats on spoiled ballots?

 

[Celyn]

Apart from the rabies aspect, the wolves are probably a good choice - intelligent, with sort of shared social values, and nicer looking than most politicians.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

View attachment 172469

isn't that a bit risky? could be taken as a vote for ukip...

 

[Artaxerxes]

Ashcroft has some figures about where votes moved between parties and the like here - click through for more.

But it's the Labour voters that gave us Brexit

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

she couldn't redo her sitting room let alone the remake the world

I’m sure she’ll find her way round the expense forms.

 

[gosub]

They did seem high when they were being read out 5-10k in each constituency

looks like it would be a bit of work to get the stat (do able but I'm busy)
but London alone was 17,397

 

[DexterTCN]

Apart from the rabies aspect, the wolves are probably a good choice - intelligent, with sort of shared social values, and nicer looking than most politicians.

You know whose ballot paper it is then

 

[The39thStep]

Portugal : Socialist Party 6 seats, SDP ( liberal/con types) 4 seats, Left Block 2 seats ( doubled their vote ) , Communist Party/ Greens alliance 1 seat.

 

[Gerry1time]

View attachment 172469

Did anyone see the story earlier today where someone wrote ‘wank’ in each of the boxes on the ballot paper, but wrote ‘not wank’ in the box for the greens, and it was examined and counted as a vote for the greens?

 

[Old Spark]

Libdems say they will target tory leadership contenders-boris,raab,mcvey,hunt,leadsom,all of whom had higher remain votes in their constituencies than hard brexit.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So right wing
Brexit: 5,244,893 31.6%
Liberal Dem: 3,366,673 20.3%
Conservative: 1,510,874 at 9.1%
Change: 571,846 about 3.3%
UKIP: 554,463 another 3.1%

Giving about 67.4%

Left (or if your that kind, centrist)
Labour 2,346,441 14.1%
Green: 2,010,328 12.1%
SNP: 590,947 3.6%
Plaid: 163,928 1%
Socialist Party of Great Britain: 3,505 0.0% (ffs you get more people at Rugby Park for a Kilmarnock game!)

About 30.8% (the other 3% is mostly in the exclave on the island of Ireland)

Pretty grim reading.
First up the Momentum "youth surge" or whatever has disappeared.
Labour seems down to its bare bones loyalists.
Any "one nation" Conservative and Unionist party is now dead.
I do not think this says much about how people will vote in a general election but it does suggest that emotive issues like national identity are able to sway people away from parties that may think they represent voters best interests economically.
Been thinking about this today and it strikes me that the tories are going to put up a bombastic Brexiter as party leader and embrace the polarisation. Taking out the Lib Dem and CHUK vote that most people would see as economically centrist, there is still a huge amount of votes for the tories to hoover up if they can get some momentum behind a bombastic "put us in power and its either a much better deal or no deal" type message in a snap election.
As much as this election has been: lol 9%, I think they have a reasonable chance of mugging together a big enough vote in a mixed anti Labour and "Brexit at any cost" coalition for them to seriously try in August or somewhere around then.

As always your mileage may vary.

Youth surge didn't happen. It's been posted on here before - Labour got 40 percent at the last election without a youth surge. That's actually cause for optimism, imo, as it means that a youth surge can still happen and make a difference - Uk's youth voting percentages are pitiful, a recent phenomenon, and atypical of European countries, it's absolutely something that could be turned around.

imo Labour would be best off throwing itself behind 'this is a shitfuck and should be stopped' as a strategy. They can start something else from that basis. At the moment they're stuck.

 

[redsquirrel]

imo Labour would be best off throwing itself behind 'this is a shitfuck and should be stopped' as a strategy. They can start something else from that basis. At the moment they're stuck.

"Best" in what way?
Politically? Then what does that say to the millions of people who voted to Leave but that their views don't count, have never counted.
Electorally? Then where are the extra seats Labour needs for a (majority) government coming from?

And what does "stopped" actually mean? A 2nd referendum with Labour campaigning for Remain, as Thornberry wants? Or are you arguing that even that pretence of a democratic mandate not be bothered with and Labour simply pushes for revoking A50?

 

[Mojofilter]

So right wing
Brexit: 5,244,893 31.6%
Liberal Dem: 3,366,673 20.3%
Conservative: 1,510,874 at 9.1%
Change: 571,846 about 3.3%
UKIP: 554,463 another 3.1%

Giving about 67.4%

Left (or if your that kind, centrist)
Labour 2,346,441 14.1%
Green: 2,010,328 12.1%
SNP: 590,947 3.6%
Plaid: 163,928 1%
Socialist Party of Great Britain: 3,505 0.0% (ffs you get more people at Rugby Park for a Kilmarnock game!)

About 30.8% (the other 3% is mostly in the exclave on the island of Ireland)

Pretty grim reading.
First up the Momentum "youth surge" or whatever has disappeared.
Labour seems down to its bare bones loyalists.
Any "one nation" Conservative and Unionist party is now dead.
I do not think this says much about how people will vote in a general election but it does suggest that emotive issues like national identity are able to sway people away from parties that may think they represent voters best interests economically.
Been thinking about this today and it strikes me that the tories are going to put up a bombastic Brexiter as party leader and embrace the polarisation. Taking out the Lib Dem and CHUK vote that most people would see as economically centrist, there is still a huge amount of votes for the tories to hoover up if they can get some momentum behind a bombastic "put us in power and its either a much better deal or no deal" type message in a snap election.
As much as this election has been: lol 9%, I think they have a reasonable chance of mugging together a big enough vote in a mixed anti Labour and "Brexit at any cost" coalition for them to seriously try in August or somewhere around then.

As always your mileage may vary.

I think it's a mistake to look at this election as a left / right issue when it's plainly about Brexit.

Also, calling the Lib Dems and Change UK right wing is a stretch.

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[Funky_monks]

I think it's a mistake to look at this election as a left / right issue when it's plainly about Brexit.

Also, calling the Lib Dems and Change UK right wing is a stretch.

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No it isn't, they are both pretty right wing. They aren't to the right of the right wing Tories, but they are definitely on a par with the "left" of the Tory party.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think it's a mistake to look at this election as a left / right issue when it's plainly about Brexit.

Also, calling the Lib Dems and Change UK right wing is a stretch.

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No it isn't

 

[sleaterkinney]

"Best" in what way?
Politically? Then what does that say to the millions of people who voted to Leave but that their views don't count, have never counted.
Electorally? Then where are the extra seats Labour needs for a (majority) government coming from?

It's clear what they're doing now isn't working for the people who voted for them in the past, because they voted remain.

 

[killer b]

I think Labour's approach to brexit has been broadly correct if poorly articulated, but I can't see how the leadership resists backing a second referendum now. I think a leadership challenge with the right candidate, fought on these lines would win, and they know it too.

 

[brogdale]

I think Labour's approach to brexit has been broadly correct if poorly articulated, but I can't see how the leadership resists backing a second referendum now. I think a leadership challenge with the right candidate, fought on these lines would win, and they know it too.

Tend to agree, but I reckon they'll be some in and around the inner circle arguing that a 'holding position' is required until they know what sort of Government they'll have on the benches opposite. If it's a No-Deal oriented tory leader intent on shooting Farage's fox...then their decision would be made for them.

 

[redsquirrel]

It's clear what they're doing now isn't working for the people who voted for them in the past, because they voted remain.

What? You are going to have to rephrase that as at the moment it's as clear as mud.

I think Labour's approach to brexit has been broadly correct if poorly articulated, but I can't see how the leadership resists backing a second referendum now. I think a leadership challenge with the right candidate, fought on these lines would win, and they know it too.

I think the leadership is increasingly moving to that position. But (1) it will have serious ramifications political and electoral and (2) it goes back to the point that Wilf has repeatedly made that this is the problem with a focus on the party.

The damage might be minimised if Labour can make a 2nd ref an opposition to no deal but even then they are handing votes to the Brexit party (or whoever) in many seats.

 

[planetgeli]

It's clear what they're doing now isn't working for the people who voted for them in the past, because they voted remain.

Sigh. This sweeping generalisation isn't true, particularly outside of the London 'bubble' (and it is a bubble, I speak to friends and relatives in London who should know better). Labour's problem is that, as redsquirrel constantly points out, electorally marginal constituencies that Labour needs to win often voted 'leave'. Any second referendum bs risks leaving these people behind. If a straight referendum was held now, which it won't be, on 'leave' or 'remain' you risk getting exactly the same result, or one not much different.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Sigh. This sweeping generalisation isn't true, particularly outside of the London 'bubble' (and it is a bubble, I speak to friends and relatives in London who should know better). Labour's problem is that, as redsquirrel constantly points out, electorally marginal constituencies that Labour needs to win often voted 'leave'. Any second referendum bs risks leaving these people behind. If a straight referendum was held now, which it won't be, on 'leave' or 'remain' you risk getting exactly the same result, or one not much different.

So they go leave and compete with Tories and the Brexit party while ruining their existing vote?.

 

[killer b]

Leave supporting Labour voters is (part of) their exiting vote though.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Leave supporting Labour voters is (part of) their exiting vote though.

But the majority of their voters are remain.

 

[killer b]

But the majority of their voters are remain.

Yeah, but their leave voters are strategically placed in seats they need to hold. Even if there wasn't a desire to move beyond brexit and somehow forge a compromise which leave and remain voters would both be able to accept, on purely electoral calculations they want to keep hold of them. What's the point of piling up a few thousand votes in safe city seats if you're losing them in marginal towns?