European Elections 2019

[Celyn]

Well, it's at least slightly interesting that Scotland has voted pretty strongly for pro-EU parties, I think. Not that it makes any difference to the whole thing, but worthy of note.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Perhaps these election are completely irrelevant. Or perhaps those pushing that line have some "motivated reasoning" ( ) for trying that line.

Brexit looks like a classic example of a wedge issue.

A wedge issue is a political or social issue, often of a controversial or divisive nature, which splits apart a demographic or population group. Wedge issues can be advertised or publicly aired in an attempt to strengthen the unity of a population, with the goal of enticing polarized individuals to give support to an opponent or to withdraw their support entirely out of disillusionment. The use of wedge issues gives rise to wedge politics. Wedge issues are also known as hot button or third rail issues.

Wedge issue - Wikipedia
Polarising an electorate and breaking traditional voting habits. Much like what happened with the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. That seen a very significant reshaping of the voting of the country.
The SNP though were a party with enough machinery and nouce to weed out the obvious cranks plus a long history in local government and Holyrood as a place to showcase their strengths. The Brexit party lack, or at least likely lack these. This hurt UKIP in the 2015-2017 time frame as they had a constant drip of fruitloop candidates in the press, perhaps the NewKIP Brexit party has learnt from that, time will tell. The Whig Dems have a structure and perhaps a deep enough membership to solidify gains, they used to be famous for their ground operation. But they have a very tarnished reputation from their 2010-2015 stint in power.
English and Welsh politics has tended to vary round the two main parties for a long time. You would feel the pull back towards that trend is the most likely outcome.
But only a buffoon is banking on that (oh hiya Boris!).
Luckily no one was dumb enough to cheer this polarisation

 

[killer b]

YouGov are using big samples for their polls, but coming up with some very strange figures, Brexit now on a whopping 37% & a lead of 18% over the LibDems, with Labour dropping to 13% & the Tories 7%, surely this can't be right?

I guess we will find out next Monday.

View attachment 171785

2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

YouGov more or less nailed it. That's not great news.

 

[weepiper]

It's as though we're a different country or something

 

[cupid_stunt]

YouGov more or less nailed it. That's not great news.

I must admit I was surprised by that, most of the polls had Lab on 18-24%, keeping them in second place.

For them to come out at just 14% & third place must be very worrying for them, trouble is it appears they lost voters to remain parties in London & the south, and to the brexit parties in the north, which is a bit of a headache for them.

 

[Mr Moose]

Absolute fucking cobblers. The idea that you can extrapolate from these results to GE shows that you have no clue what you are talking about.

Like I said before no intellectual honesty.

You can disagree without utterly falling out. All I’m saying and others are saying too, is that the choice is not as clear as you make it and certainly enough to worry the leadership.

But in any case, if we are out before the next election, it doesn’t matter.

 

[Mr Moose]

Clare Regina Fox elected

‘Regina’ lol.

If it meant less of her on the TV I’d be pleased for her.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Absolute fucking cobblers. The idea that you can extrapolate from these results to GE shows that you have no clue what you are talking about.

Bloody good job too! Just for fun I put the figures into the electoral calculus website...



User-defined Poll

 

[redsquirrel]

You can disagree without utterly falling out. All I’m saying and others are saying too, is that the choice is not as clear as you make it and certainly enough to worry the leadership.

Have you got even a smidgeon of evidence that Islington North would overturn a 33,00 majority and go LD? A seat where even in 2005 Corbyn had a 6000 majority over the LDs.

Anyone who has the slightest interest in politics/psephology knows that EU elections are terrible predictors for behaviour at GE. LE results are also not very good, but they are much better than EU elections, and where were the most serious Labour losses. Not to the LDs/Grns in strong pro-EU areas but to eurosceptic independents in traditional Labour heartlands like Bolsover.

EDIT: The best predictors for GE results are GE opinion polls and while there has been a swing from Lab to the LDs it's nothing like enough to put most Labour seats in any danger. Moreover, there are very few Lab-Lib marginals either for Labour to take or to defend. Who forms the next government is going to be decided (as it nearly always is) in who wins in the Tory-Lab marginals. And in a not insignificant number of those seats had a majority vote for leave.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Of course brexit will be a factor in the next GE. To say that European elections will not have a bearing on General elections based on a different situation in the past is intellectual dishonesty.

 

[Pickman's model]

Of course brexit will be a factor in the next GE. To say that European elections will not have a bearing on General elections based on a different situation in the past is intellectual dishonesty.

You know as a fact that the votes of the 63% of people who didn't vote can't be predicted from last night's results. 100% of the BP voters I know won't vote BP in a subsequent general election, and I don't suppose I'm alone in that.

 

[Mr Moose]

Have you got even a smidgeon of evidence that Islington North would overturn a 33,00 majority and go LD? A seat where even in 2005 Corbyn had a 6000 majority over the LDs.

Anyone who has the slightest interest in politics/psephology knows that EU elections are terrible predictors for behaviour at GE. LE results are also not very good, but they are much better than EU elections, and where were the most serious Labour losses. Not to the LDs/Grns in strong pro-EU areas but to eurosceptic independents in traditional Labour heartlands like Bolsover.

I’m saying it’s unlikely, but it will play on the mind every bit as much as the votes in Northern areas. And even if this is the least likely seat to go there are lots that will be vulnerable to Remain candidates if this continues.

You are right that the probable best way to proceed is a compromise deal and hope the country moves on quickly.

 

[sleaterkinney]

You know as a fact that the votes of the 63% of people who didn't vote can't be predicted from last night's results. 100% of the BP voters I know won't vote BP in a subsequent general election, and I don't suppose I'm alone in that.

You think the tories and labour won't be in line for a kicking?. That's the second election after the locals - which didn't count either...

 

[redsquirrel]

I’m saying it’s unlikely, but it will play on the mind every bit as much as the votes in Northern areas. And even if this is the least likely seat to go there are lots that will be vulnerable to Remain candidates if this continues.

You've probably missed my edit - my fault not yours - but where, outside Scotland, are these seats?

You are right that the probable best way to proceed is a compromise deal and hope the country moves on quickly.

I've not made any such argument.

 

[redsquirrel]

Of course brexit will be a factor in the next GE. To say that European elections will not have a bearing on General elections based on a different situation in the past is intellectual dishonesty.

Who has made any such claim?

 

[sleaterkinney]

Who has made any such claim?

Sorry, missed the edit you just put in.

 

[Pickman's model]

You think the tories and labour won't be in line for a kicking?. That's the second election after the locals - which didn't count either...

I think a load of labour and tory voters sat this one out. A lot of people thought the turnout would be higher, I among them, and I think these results won't be repeated in the next GE. Yes, other parties' share of the vote will rise at the ge but a peculiar aspect of this election is both remain and leave politicians calling for this vote to be treated as a rerun of the referendum. I think you're taking too much from these results without sufficient genuine foundation.

 

[redsquirrel]

And just to reinforce the above this is the list of LD target seats. Which again backs up the info from the LEs, that a swing to the LDs hurts the Tories more than Lab.

 

[Mr Moose]

You've probably missed my edit - my fault not yours - but where, outside Scotland, are these seats?

I've not made any such argument.

Sorry, I thought you wrote that Labour should pursue a deal acceptable to its traditional vote. That has to be a compromise because it can’t go hard Brexit.

 

[redsquirrel]

Leave % for top 10 Con-Lab marginals
Southampton Itchen - 60
Pudsey - 49
Hastings and Rye - 56
Chipping Barnet - 41
Thurrock - 70
Preseli Pembrokeshire - 55
Calder Valley - 53
Norwich North - 57
Broxtowe - 53 (Soubry's constituency)
Stoke-on-Trent South - 71

Leave % for top 10 Lab-Con marginals
Kensington - 31
Dudley North - 71
Newcastle-under-Lyme - 62
Crewe-and-Nantwich - 60
Canterbury - 45
Barrow and Furness - 57
Keighley - 53
Ashfield - 70
Stroud - 46
Bishop Auckland - 61

So 15 out of 20 seats with majorities for Leave.

 

[Brainaddict]

Leave % for top 10 Con-Lab marginals
Southampton Itchen - 60
Pudsey - 49
Hastings and Rye - 56
Chipping Barnet - 41
Thurrock - 70
Preseli Pembrokeshire - 55
Calder Valley - 53
Norwich North - 57
Broxtowe - 53 (Soubry's constituency)
Stoke-on-Trent South - 71

Leave % for top 10 Lab-Con marginals
Kensington - 31
Dudley North - 71
Newcastle-under-Lyme - 62
Crewe-and-Nantwich - 60
Canterbury - 45
Barrow and Furness - 57
Keighley - 53
Ashfield - 70
Stroud - 46
Bishop Auckland - 61

So 15 out of 20 seats with majorities for Leave.

And yet the Remain Ultras insist the only way for Labour to win the next GE is for them to become a Remain party.

 

[Pickman's model]

And yet the Remain Ultras insist the only way for Labour to win the next GE is for them to become a Remain party.

Tbh they will have to decide which way to jump at some point

 

[Balbi]

It's interesting really, the hardcore Second Referendum lot want Remain on the ballot - but in doing so they're opening the door for No Deal to be the other option.

The problem here is that Leave, and leaving, is a definitive change which opens up possibilities of something different. Remain, meanwhile, appears to be - as the vote was - made up of varying shades which range from 'Let's go back to when things were good in 2012', 'Let's get back to normal', 'Lets undo austerity', Let's build socialism etc etc, which are all in conflict with each other - much like the Remain message in 2016.

Simply saying, 'well people will have changed their minds' is true, and yet the campaign itself to convince the 20% odd in the middle could still fail - meaning the People's Vote campaign could ensure No Deal

 

[agricola]

It's interesting really, the hardcore Second Referendum lot want Remain on the ballot - but in doing so they're opening the door for No Deal to be the other option.

The problem here is that Leave, and leaving, is a definitive change which opens up possibilities of something different. Remain, meanwhile, appears to be - as the vote was - made up of varying shades which range from 'Let's go back to when things were good in 2012', 'Let's get back to normal', 'Lets undo austerity', Let's build socialism etc etc, which are all in conflict with each other - much like the Remain message in 2016.

Simply saying, 'well people will have changed their minds' is true, and yet the campaign itself to convince the 20% odd in the middle could still fail - meaning the People's Vote campaign could ensure No Deal

TBF there is no argument that is likely to get through to some people at present. Half a million people voted Brexit in the north-west despite Claire Fox supporting the Warrington bombing, and they did so because they think they are all patriots standing up for democracy.

 

[Balbi]

Well that's alright, isn't it? 2nd Vote lot don't give a fuck about Brexit Party voters.

 

[Brainaddict]

Tbh they will have to decide which way to jump at some point

Though their position was ambiguous in the past, their formal position now is Softer Brexit. The way I see it, it is a position, but we're in a time of extremes so people claim it isn't - simply because it's not the position they want.

 

[Pickman's model]

It's interesting really, the hardcore Second Referendum lot want Remain on the ballot - but in doing so they're opening the door for No Deal to be the other option.

The problem here is that Leave, and leaving, is a definitive change which opens up possibilities of something different. Remain, meanwhile, appears to be - as the vote was - made up of varying shades which range from 'Let's go back to when things were good in 2012', 'Let's get back to normal', 'Lets undo austerity', Let's build socialism etc etc, which are all in conflict with each other - much like the Remain message in 2016.

Simply saying, 'well people will have changed their minds' is true, and yet the campaign itself to convince the 20% odd in the middle could still fail - meaning the People's Vote campaign could ensure No Deal

The major problem remain face both in attaining a second referendum and in winning one is that so few prominent remainers refuse to admit there is anything really wrong with the EU. If they did say 'while we're better off in Europe we need to deal with its shortcomings, and a vote to remain is a vote not for the eu of auld but for the UK to fight for an eu in which your concerns have been answered through genuine reforms and not the shitty crumbs cameron thought would fob you off' they'd likely take 10-20% of leavers with them. But that's as likely to happen as man city being relegated next season.

 

[agricola]

The major problem remain face both in attaining a second referendum and in winning one is that so few prominent remainers refuse to admit there is anything really wrong with the EU. If they did say 'while we're better off in Europe we need to deal with its shortcomings, and a vote to remain is a vote not for the eu of auld but for the UK to fight for an eu in which your concerns have been answered through genuine reforms and not the shitty crumbs cameron thought would fob you off' they'd likely take 10-20% of leavers with them. But that's as likely to happen as man city being relegated next season.

Isn't that Labour's stance from the referendum, though?

 

[Pickman's model]

Though their position was ambiguous in the past, their formal position now is Softer Brexit. The way I see it, it is a position, but we're in a time of extremes so people claim it isn't - simply because it's not the position they want.

We'll see which way they go in the next several months

 

[Pickman's model]

Isn't that Labour's stance from the referendum, though?

And look how nearly it worked

But Cameron had puffed up his cup full of shit and unsurprisingly undermined the remain position