European Elections 2019

[Mr Moose]

Well, electorally, that what it comes down to - seats not votes. Yes Lab will lose votes in constituencies like mine to the LDs, Greens, but so what they will still keep the seat. To form a (majority) government they need to take seats of Tories, often in areas where a majority voted for Leave. That means having a policy that Leave voters can accept even if they don't like.

That’s predicated on Brexit still being unresolved by then. If we have left it’s a different ball game.

If the GE happens before then this might suggest that far from the Remain surge being manageable in the South, Corbyn himself could lose his seat.

It’s a genuine fix Labour is in.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Because this isn't a Brexit referendum and it's dumb as fuck to assume that within Labour, Tories etc there aren't still Leavers who would still vote Leave given the choice to - combined with the knowledge that the Remain campaign are a bunch of squabbling twats who haven't yet worked out a strategy to win a secon referendum beyond 'people will see the mistake they made'.

For most people who voted, it kind of was a brexit referendum. I know a few labour voters who switched green for that reason, I know many others have gone libdem for the same reason, and well the brexit party stands for nothing else.

Given that, a slight increase in votes for explicitly brexit parties, plus more votes for explicitly remain parties, isn't evidence that a second ref wouldn't go remain.

I'm not particularly advocating this, but I just don't see how these numbers indicate anything we didn't already know. If I were pro-brexit, these numbers would make me want to avoid a second ref.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Because his shitty policy in this election returned very poor results for the party he leads.

As opposed to the other options which would defo have led to an increased vote share in all the regions

 

[ruffneck23]

.

 

[Plumdaff]

If the GE happens before then this might suggest that far from the Remain surge being manageable in the South, Corbyn himself could lose his seat.

Let's calm down shall we. There's no way on a GE turnout Islington North is going Lib Dem.

 

[DexterTCN]

quick post, hope it's not been done

 

[toblerone3]

The opinion polls also showed a narrow remain win in 2016. Most people haven't shifted. A narrow win for remain in a new ref wouldn't really resolve anything anyway

The narrow win for Leave in 2016 hasn't really resolved anything either.

 

[Plumdaff]

The narrow win for Leave in 2016 hasn't really resolved anything either.

It's almost as if one of the major political parties ought to advocate a compromise position retaining much of the most important aspects of membership whilst respecting the referendum result?

 

[DexterTCN]

Theresa May's place.

 

[Mr Moose]

Let's calm down shall we. There's no way on a GE turnout Islington North is going Lib Dem.

Unlikely yes, but no way, ‘no way’.

 

[Orang Utan]

Results coming in. Tories 5th in Leeds.

Where did you see this? Someone else online is talking about this, but Leeds doesn't elect an MEP. I'm confused.

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[Balbi]

I get the impression they think winning is a foregone conclusin, just hold the PV and remain has to win, just like it had to win first time around...

Yeah, and the evidence is it'd come to down a 48/52 again after an even more toxic campaign than 2016 - and losing again but this time to No Deal? Wow ok.

 

[Dogsauce]

The opinion polls also showed a narrow remain win in 2016. Most people haven't shifted. A narrow win for remain in a new ref wouldn't really resolve anything anyway

Suspect there’s always been a majority for remain, but for most people it’s a fairly dispassionate position (I’ve previously described this as like voting in favour of your electricity supplier), whereas those wanting to leave were more fired up and passionate at the time of the referendum (with a background of the ‘refugee crisis’ and the associated media shit stirring) so came out in larger numbers. In a second ref it might be remain with the motivation to vote ‘against’ something and stop Brexit, although leave will be as fired up as last time to prevent their victory being stolen. Would be messy anyway.

 

[weepiper]

 

[Proper Tidy]

The narrow win for Leave in 2016 hasn't really resolved anything either.

A campaign for a new referendum stamping on your face, forever

 

[DexterTCN]

Where did you see this? Someone else online is talking about this, but Leeds doesn't elect an MEP. I'm confused.

Voter percentages.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Theresa May's place.

That's a result that indicates the pickle the tories are in as they head towards the hard brexit sunset. Tory members may overwhelmingly want hard brexit, but tory voters don't, and the libdems could hoover them up in a general election. They won't lose Maidenhead - May's seat - but they could lose elsewhere.

 

[DexterTCN]

That's a result that indicates the pickle the tories are in as they head towards the hard brexit sunset...

yup...if they don't veer to the extreme right they're in trouble.

 

[Balbi]

Well, that's it isn't it? They'll do a deal with Farage and clean up.

 

[agricola]

Because his shitty policy in this election returned very poor results for the party he leads.

Yes, how dare he not put out his strongest XI in the County Reserve Invitational Cup.

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Where did you see this? Someone else online is talking about this, but Leeds doesn't elect an MEP. I'm confused.

Each council area is a 'local counting area' for this, so the numbers from each one (seems to be by local authority area, not by parliamentary constituency - the boundaries generally don't quite match) are being made public

But those numbers go towards the total for each region, and it's the regions that elect MEPs

 

[Balbi]

No Deal vs Remain would probably be the question, right?

 

[Proper Tidy]

Fucks sake

 

[littlebabyjesus]

yup...if they don't veer to the extreme right they're in trouble.

If you look at that result from a tory heartland, you see big numbers switching to the 'centre' remain parties, with brexit just gaining a few. Those are tory voters overwhelmingly. The tories may have been preoccupied with losing votes to UKIP in the past, but they need to worry about votes going the other way now if they essentially become UKIP themselves.

 

[belboid]

Where did you see this? Someone else online is talking about this, but Leeds doesn't elect an MEP. I'm confused.

The votes are counted by the local councils who declare them and pass them in to the regional lead council - which is leeds for y&h

 

[DotCommunist]

Both Blair and Cable indicated last week that no deal being on the ballot for a potential 2nd reff was a Sensible policy favoured by Political Heavyweights such as themselves.

 

[DexterTCN]

eff off!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

eff off!

I was about to reply to that.

tbh the fact that the bp is winning votes from labour in labour heartlands that voted leave isn't surprising. We're fucked basically. I don't see any non-destructive way out.