European Elections 2019

[co-op]

The bottom 10 are all out, seven of them strongly out (counting strongly as <40%). Six of top ten are remain, and the other four are all only weakly out. In fact all the strongly out are in the bottom 20. Strong pattern, I'd say.

As I said, I can see it at the bottom end but I can't really at the top. You talk about the out areas in the top 10/top 20 being "only weakly out" - but 3 out of the top 20 are only weakly remain. My point is that a couple of different results really changes the balance - ie it's not necessarily a correlation, it could just be background noise. No disrespect to you, but I was really asking someone who knows about stats to give an opinion, I can just look at it for myself.

 

[The39thStep]

Met a friend for coffee who would normally vote Green or Labour but voted LibDem as the strongest Remain option

Ditch them

 

[The39thStep]

Didn't get to vote because Stansted shut their runway so got diverted to Luton and didn't get home until 11:30.

shouldnt you be on the train?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

As I said, I can see it at the bottom end but I can't really at the top. You talk about the out areas in the top 10/top 20 being "only weakly out" - but 3 out of the top 20 are only weakly remain. My point is that a couple of different results really changes the balance - ie it's not necessarily a correlation, it could just be background noise. No disrespect to you, but I was really asking someone who knows about stats to give an opinion, I can just look at it for myself.

Well I know a bit about stats. I haven't done a formal analysis but I don't need to - my crude one is enough to see the pattern. There's a very strong pattern there - you're mistaken to think that the top and the bottom are somehow different things - they're not, they're parts of the same distribution (so when you say that the bottom is correlated but the top isn't, that doesn't make sense), and the pattern is pretty robust: the things I picked out are statistically significant.

 

[co-op]

Well I know a bit about stats. I haven't done a formal analysis but I don't need to - my crude one is enough to see the pattern. There's a very strong pattern there - you're mistaken to think that the top and the bottom are somehow different things - they're not, they're parts of the same distribution, and the pattern is pretty robust.

Can't you have a correlation at one end at not at the other? Does the line have to be straight?

 

[co-op]

Can't you have a correlation at one end at not at the other? Does the line have to be straight?

*Not trying to be arsey here, but 3/11 "remain" votes in the top 20 are basically 50:50.

 

[killer b]

As I said, I can see it at the bottom end but I can't really at the top. You talk about the out areas in the top 10/top 20 being "only weakly out" - but 3 out of the top 20 are only weakly remain. My point is that a couple of different results really changes the balance - ie it's not necessarily a correlation, it could just be background noise. No disrespect to you, but I was really asking someone who knows about stats to give an opinion, I can just look at it for myself.

93 councils have verified now:

 

[co-op]

93 councils have verified now:

Perfect timing! I surrender.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

*Not trying to be arsey here, but 3/11 "remain" votes in the top 20 are basically 50:50.

So what? We're looking for a pattern here. And there's a strong one. Continued by the larger set of results. So now we have 13 councils so far with a lower turnout, every single one less remain than average (average being 48), and most of them way below average. In the top 13, you have just two councils less than average, and then only a little less.

 

[Plumdaff]

Interesting how many of those higher turnout places are the more remain areas of Wales. Be curious how well Plaid do.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Interesting how many of those higher turnout places are the more remain areas of Wales. Be curious how well Plaid do.

Yes indeed, although maybe not in Monmouthshire. I'm afraid those results probably mean good news for the LibDems as well.

 

[kabbes]

Can't you have a correlation at one end at not at the other? Does the line have to be straight?

You can certainly have correlation at one end only. In the real world, this is probably the most common type of correlation.

This data is correlated across the whole distribution though.

 

[Dogsauce]

Suspect the rise in Durham (the only leave one near the top) could be down to students being around for this election - the referendum was late June when many would have fucked off for the summer. Might also factor in some of the other areas reporting.

 

[DexterTCN]

Interesting how many of those higher turnout places are the more remain areas of Wales. Be curious how well Plaid do.

They've been very active on social media.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Have there been any exit polls?

 

[brogdale]

Have there been any exit polls?

No; not allowed for the 4 day Euro voting process. Apparently they worry that a Thursday exit poll from the Isles of Scilly might influence the Sunday voting on the island of Sicily.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

No; not allowed for the 4 day Euro voting process. Apparently they worry that a Thursday exit poll from the Isles of Scilly might influence the Sunday voting on the island of Sicily.

That's so scilly.




Apologies.

 

[Dogsauce]

My not entirely scientific prediction: LDs higher than Labour. Just a hunch.

 

[co-op]

No; not allowed for the 4 day Euro voting process. Apparently they worry that a Thursday exit poll from the Isles of Scilly might influence the Sunday voting on the island of Sicily.

Although someone forgot to tell the Dutch because the Dutch exit polls were all over various news websites the day after. Surprise defeat for the conservatives apparently.


ETA they're still up https://www.politico.eu/article/timmermans-netherlands-european-election/

 

[Badgers]

My local council

 

[Puddy_Tat]

That's so scilly.




Apologies.

and what about the channel islands? or would raising that that be sarky?

 

[Dogsauce]

Although someone forgot to tell the Dutch because the Dutch exit polls were all over various news websites the day after. Surprise defeat for the conservatives apparently.


ETA they're still up https://www.politico.eu/article/timmermans-netherlands-european-election/

Wilders lost three of four seats

(Although they may have gone directly to a new eurosceptic party that picked up three)

 

[rekil]

Ireland euros 1st prefs exit poll fwiw. Big gains for greens. A new low for Labour. I4C is Clare 'Victory to Assad' Daly and her illegalist drunken sidekick Wallace, litigious convicted tax dodger who owned 76 (!) properties at one point and is banned from operating companies but somehow still owns a chain of restaurants.

FG-EPP: 29% (+7)
FF-ALDE: 15% (-6)
GREEN-G/EFA: 15% (+10)
SF-LEFT: 13% (-7)
I4C-LEFT: 7% (+7)
LAB-S&D: 4% (-1)
SD-S&D: 1% (+1)
S-PBP-LEFT: 1% (-1)

+/- vs. 2014 election

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

and what about the channel islands? or would raising that that be sarky?

When it comes to Island-based punning, the Skye's the limit.

 

[belboid]

When it comes to Island-based punning, the Skye's the limit.

I’d Mull over one, but I’d probably over Eigg it

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

I’d Mull over one, but I’d probably over Eigg it

We'll keep going and eventually you'll come up with a Bute.

 

[2hats]

Isay somes rùm jokes inisheer.

 

[belboid]

We'll keep going and eventually you'll come up with a Bute.

I’ll Yell one out if I do.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

I’ll Yell one out if I do.

No Foulness allowed though.

 

[belboid]

Wyre we doing this?