European Elections 2019

[friedaweed]

When do we get the results? Do we have to wait until Sunday?

 

[Steel Icarus]

When do we get the results? Do we have to wait until Sunday?

Yes, as it's a European-wide thing, we have to wait til everyone participating is done.

 

[cupid_stunt]

When do we get the results? Do we have to wait until Sunday?

Yes, results start to be declared from 10 pm Sunday, full results on Monday, with the exception of NI, which IIRC correctly declares on Tuesday, because they use the single transferable vote system rather than the party list system, so loads of re-counts.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes, results start to be declared from 10 pm Sunday, full results on Monday, with the exception of NI, which IIRC correctly declares on Tuesday, because they use the single transferable vote system rather than the party list system, so loads of re-counts.

You'd hope when they declare the results will be declared correctly everywhere

 

[Mr Moose]

Yes, as it's a European-wide thing, we have to wait til everyone participating is done.

It’s the EU innit? Telling us what to do.

 

[friedaweed]

Yes, as it's a European-wide thing, we have to wait til everyone participating is done.

Why cant they all vote on Thursday night?

 

[dessiato]

dessiato are you 'Angry and Upset' chief?

Not in that article, but I'm pissed off about being disenfranchised.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Why cant they all vote on Thursday night?

Most vote on Sunday, only 6 or 7 countries vote earlier.

There's a list of expected result times via link below, London around 2 am on Mon, Scotland not until 11 am - the Western Isles are lazy & don't start counting until Mon., and finally NI around 6 pm on Tue.

European elections 2019: When will results be announced in the UK?

 

[Mr Moose]

Why cant they all vote on Thursday night?

We should leave or send a strong self-defeating message at least.

 

[Supine]

We should leave or send a strong self-defeating message at least.

Or bluster and do nothing until october

 

[Plumdaff]

Cardiff turnout 41%, up 10% on 2014. So significantly up but still low compared to GEs.

 

[Dogsauce]

Not like anyone’s going to be able to claim a mandate on such a low turnout, although it won’t stop them trying.

 

[gentlegreen]

Perhaps they should introduce compulsory voting ...

There must be just a hardcore of enthusiasts on either side. Only 6 million could be arsed to sign the revoke petition ..

 

[teuchter]

How they’re playing it here:

View attachment 171949

That's not entirely consistent with the official policy, which states a preference for Labour's Brexit Plan over a second vote:

Labour has put forward an alternative plan to seek a close and cooperative relationship with the European Union, including a new comprehensive customs union with a UK say, close single market alignment, guaranteed rights and standards, and the protection of the Good Friday peace agreement in Northern Ireland.

We believe such a deal could bring our country back together and deliver on the result of the referendum. However, the Government has refused to listen and compromise. They have spent more of the last three years arguing among themselves than negotiating a good deal for the people of Britain.

Labour will continue to oppose the Government’s bad deal or a disastrous no deal. And if we can’t get agreement along the lines of our alternative plan, or a general election, Labour backs the option of a public vote.

 

[killer b]

Interesting graph here showing turnout - it's mostly up, but much more up in remain-leaning areas, and actually down in some leave-leaning. Make of that what you will...

 

[kabbes]

That trendline is appalling. It demonstrates how a standard fit massively overemphasises both extremes of the graph.

 

[killer b]

have I been fooled by a dotted line Kabbes?

 

[brogdale]

have I been fooled by a dotted line Kabbes?

Looks sound to me, and as more LAs verify it's likely to firm up.

 

[chilango]

Met a friend for coffee who would normally vote Green or Labour but voted LibDem as the strongest Remain option

 

[brogdale]

Met a friend for coffee who would normally vote Green or Labour but voted LibDem as the strongest Remain option

Why the LP will have to pivot.

 

[killer b]

Why the LP will have to pivot.

let's see the results first.

here's some more turnout figures fwiw. Pretty clear pattern I'd say.

 

[kabbes]

have I been fooled by a dotted line Kabbes?

There’s definitely a strong trend, I just dispute that it’s the one they’ve plotted. If anything, I think that a trend more carefully calibrated would indicate an even stronger relationship than the one shown. Cambridge is having an unduly strong influence on the plotted slope.

Check this out: Influential Points in Regression

 

[brogdale]

let's see the results first.

here's some more turnout figures fwiw. Pretty clear pattern I'd say.

Don't disagree, but I don't necessarily think we have to wait for the results to see that, faced with a No-Dealer leading the tories, if the LP art to claw back the primary opposition position they'll have to pivot to a position of clarity. Otherwise it'll be 20% each for LP & LD with Johnson+Farage mopping up the rest.

 

[killer b]

People have been expecting a pivot from Labour for three years now: it hasn't come. If Labour do something like the mid 20s or more figures some polls were predicting, and Brexit don't do as well as predicted, then I'd say there'll be no pivot. If Labour come third then maybe. I dunno though. There's obviously a plan for the general election, and I don't think it's 'lets run the referendum again!'

 

[xenon]

Anyways, voted Green as I usually have done in Euro elections.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Didn't get to vote because Stansted shut their runway so got diverted to Luton and didn't get home until 11:30.

 

[brogdale]

People have been expecting a pivot from Labour for three years now: it hasn't come. If Labour do something like the mid 20s or more figures some polls were predicting, and Brexit don't do as well as predicted, then I'd say there'll be no pivot. If Labour come third then maybe. I dunno though. There's obviously a plan for the general election, and I don't think it's 'lets run the referendum again!'

I doubt that 'let's run the referendum again' is the LP's favoured GE strategy, but their problem arises from the fact that their governing opponents have little option but that strategy. The only counter to continued tory wipeout will be a 'hard' Brexit position that shoots Farage's fox, and the LP will have to play that.

FWIW...my prediction of Sunday's European Election result for the UK (change on 2017 GE):

• Brexit: 33% +33%
• Lab: 19% -21%
• LD: 16% +8%
• Con: 12% -30%
• Green: 8% +6%
• ChUK: 4% +4%
• UKIP: 3% +1%
• Oth: 4%

 

[co-op]

let's see the results first.

here's some more turnout figures fwiw. Pretty clear pattern I'd say.

Is that really a "pretty clear pattern"? It looks to me like the bottom end has correlation - i.e. "out" areas had normal/lower turnouts but at the top, 4 out of the top 10 higher turnouts were out areas and 9 out of the top 20 - that doesn't really look like a correlation to me?

 

[Mr Moose]

It does begin to seem like far from delivering the Brexit Party’s coup, it’s just going to be as you were with the balance of Leave/Remain, if anything worse for Leave.

Much bigger deal if they could win a by-election.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is that really a "pretty clear pattern"? It looks to me like the bottom end has correlation - i.e. "out" areas had normal/lower turnouts but at the top, 4 out of the top 10 higher turnouts were out areas and 9 out of the top 20 - that doesn't really look like a correlation to me?

The bottom 10 are all out, seven of them strongly out (counting strongly as <40%). Six of top ten are remain, and the other four are all only weakly out. In fact all the strongly out are in the bottom 20. Strong pattern, I'd say.