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My concern about bitcoin right now is that people who are desperate/hopeful might get scammed, lose money or lose too much in the inevitable crash.

When it was all just a fringe and fanciful interest, it seemed harmless because it was most likely doomed. The more likely it becomes mainstream, the more daunting I perceive it.

I think the difference between us and a lot of the people on this thread is that we and Newbie i think take bitcoin seriously, for better or for worse, whereas others don't, they scoff because they don't understand how it can have value or get outraged when they discover its infrastructure actually occupies real space and consumes vast amounts of actual energy which (oddly imo) causes them to dismiss it even more. Said it before and saying it again- bitcoin is serious and organized, whether for it or against it or both people need to fix-up and look this beast in the eye, dissing libertards or failing to see any value in bitcoin isn't going to make it go away. Cryptopolitics- time to figure out the positions.
 
I agree.

I think it's all about the mechanics; the game theory and human behaviour interactions around this novelty. It's now possible to make a range of humdrum price and market predictions as to boom or bust in price. In this respect its like all other speculative bubbles. But it's not entirely just another speculative bubble. It's an innovation in money like paper money or banking credit. After it goes through a few more rounds of hype and crash - what will be the state of the world economy?
 
It’s not money, though. I’ve made this point time and again. It’s a commodity. There is a huge difference.
 
I read that as:

"there are lots of interesting arguments one can make to suggest that bitcoin is not money, nor should be money"

But that is not the same as the statement "bitcoin is not money".
The interesting arguments seem pretty persuasive to me.

Gold is not money. Would you agree with that?
 
interest bearing debt did the job too for a bit, but there have been erm... problems, with the cartel licensed to supply it.

network-consensus can certainly fit some of the role of money, or made specifically to do so. Looks like there are erm... problems, involved there too though.
 
I would, but it used to be money. Turned out state authority written on paper made better money. for a while.
Technically, it was coins made of gold, then other icons pegged to the value of gold that was money, not gold itself. And once states stopped relying on gold, it ceased to become money, thus rather neatly illustrating the point that it is not something essential to the commodity that makes it money, it rather something essential to the state.

Golumbia’s book linked to earlier in the thread and referenced in that post I linked to explains exactly why bitcoin isn’t money. I think some are just reluctant to read it, despite their claims that bitcoin is the most fascinating subject on earth. So here are some parts of the particularly important section, from the start of chapter 5:

WHILE WE HAVE SO FAR DISCUSSED it as currency, its advocates frequently promote Bitcoin as a new form of money (see, e.g., Emery and Stewart 2015; Smart 2015). Money and currency are not identical. “Money,” as we use the word today and as economists define it in standard textbooks, serves three critical functions: medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account (see, e.g., Abel, Bernanke, and Croushore 2008, 248–49).[1] Medium of exchange means that a token (which need not be physical; a token might be nothing more than an entry in an accounting ledger) can be used to buy or sell products and services; store of value means that the tokens can be saved, and (despite a certain level of inherent volatility) can be relied on to maintain their purchasing power. Unit of account, sometimes also called measure of value, refers to the fact that the market uses the token in determining the value of products, which is to say, their prices. It is worth noting that, in circular reasoning typical of ideological constructions, these textbook definitions of money are frequently rejected by Bitcoin advocates, even as they insist that Bitcoin is money. That is, though Bitcoin fails to meet the criteria we have long used to identify money, we are told that we must accept that Bitcoin is money (see, e.g., both “Myths”; and Smart 2015 for conspiratorial redefinitions of “money”).

Of these three classical functions, it is arguable that Bitcoin serves only as a medium of exchange. It is possible to buy and sell products using Bitcoin. Speaking very roughly, “medium of exchange” might well be thought of as the “currency function” of money. As many economists have pointed out, though, virtually anything can serve as a medium of exchange, and nonmonetary media of exchange proliferate in our world: from frequent flyer miles to credit card bonus point programs, from grocery store coupons to high-value goods like fine art, precious metals, and gems.[2] None of these alternative currencies poses any threat whatsoever to national sovereignty over money, let alone national sovereignty itself. Yet Bitcoin advocates frequently attempt to redefine money as if the term refers only to medium of exchange.
Whether Bitcoin serves the unit of account or measure of value function is much less clear. It is rare, though not unheard of, for markets to exist that price their goods only in Bitcoin, and rarer still for those prices to exist in relation to nothing other than Bitcoin: that is to say, even the infamous deep web drug marketplaces like Silk Road and its various offshoots clearly set the Bitcoin prices for their goods according to their value in official world currencies, despite having prices nominally listed in Bitcoin (i.e., those prices rise and fall with changes not just in Bitcoin’s valuation, but in the price of drugs in national currencies). Exactly because Bitcoin lacks any relationship to bodies that need the currency to exist in relationship to mechanisms of international exchange, or of state-internal matters like taxes, Bitcoin on its own floats free of any anchor to ordinary valuing processes. If Bitcoin-only economies were to develop, in which labor were priced in raw relation to Bitcoin regardless of Bitcoin’s exchange value with world currencies (i.e., labor is priced at 1 BTC an hour regardless of whether 1 BTC is worth US$10 or US$1,000), this situation might change, but this presents the same chicken-and-egg problem we see throughout Bitcoin propaganda: if states were to go away and if entire economies existed in Bitcoin, then it could become money; but it is simultaneously said to be Bitcoin that will cause states to wither away and that will produce those economies.

The third function, store of value, is Bitcoin’s fundamental and most interesting obstacle, and the place where conspiratorial economic thought becomes most clearly implicated in the structure and usage of the software itself. Part of why Bitcoin is so well-known is precisely because of its volatility: it was Bitcoin’s remarkable climb to over US$1,000 that brought it to general public attention. Despite the fact that this is seen by many Bitcoin promoters as a “positive” change in value, a change is a change regardless of direction. An instrument that grows to 400 percent of its original value (from US$200 to US$1,000) in under a year can and will lose 80 percent of its value in a similar time period. A person storing their savings or profits from business in Bitcoin has absolutely no reason to expect that that value will be maintained over even a short time frame, and in fact has every reason to expect that it will not.

Excerpt From
The Politics of Bitcoin: Software as Right-Wing Extremism
David Golumbia
This material may be protected by copyright.

And then a bit later, a crucial conclusion that includes this.

Indeed, the story told so far has if anything tilted the story too much in Bitcoin’s favor. For while the textbook account of money includes the three critical functions we have mentioned, the majority of expert economic theory simply defines money as currency that is issued by a sovereign government. This theory is known as “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) or “neochartalism” and has its roots in economics going back at least to John Maynard Keynes, whose views have perpetually been a major target for every sort of attack from right-wing thinkers. According to this view, the difference between money and currency is that money is currency issued by the state and indicates the form of currency in which taxes must be paid. It is precisely the pegging of a given national currency to factors like taxation, national industrial production, and international trade that enables the store of value and unit of account functions of money.

Excerpt From
The Politics of Bitcoin: Software as Right-Wing Extremism
David Golumbia
This material may be protected by copyright.
 
It’s not money, though. I’ve made this point time and again. It’s a commodity. There is a huge difference.
I would've thought the key difference between a commodity and money is that commodities have use values other than exchange. What is the use value of bitcoin other than its exchange value?
 
I was reading some assessment that said data processing now accounts for 7% of global power use. In total, crypto currency processing accounts for 0.2%.
You're seriously comparing all the databases that keep everything happening in real time for 6 billion people, including the entire banking system, all government functions, all logistics, all trade and all data analytics with 300,000 Bitcoin transactions per day? :eek:

And thinking that because all that uses as much as 30 times as much power as the Bitcoin project I'll somehow come to my senses and accept that Bitcoin isn't a problem? After all, it can use renewables.:D

And anyway, on current trends big data is set to double by 2020 or so, so it's irrelevant that Bitcoin usage will double by January or February?

Please get real.
 
I would've thought the key difference between a commodity and money is that commodities have use values other than exchange. What is the use value of bitcoin other than its exchange value?
This is quite true. It has the properties of a commodity but not its basis in reality. It’s like some kind if commodity derivative.
 
So based on your conclusions, what is your prediction for bitcoin over the next few years?
Based on my conclusions, it’s massively volatile and hence impossible to predict it’s value. That’s one of its key limitations.

But if it can’t reolve its power use, it has a whole different raft of issues. In an increasingly power-aware society, there’s no way something of global proportions will be able to grow unchecked.
 
I wasn't necessarily asking for a value prediction but a life cycle/lifespan prediction. Based on what you have read, do you think it will fizzle out, be replaced or continue on its current track?
 
It looks to me like we're in the tulip mania phase, there are adverts on the underground and in the DM now telling everyone to buy bitcoin, I think it'll burst spectacularly within a couple of years and be worth peanuts.
 
I wasn't necessarily asking for a value prediction but a life cycle/lifespan prediction. Based on what you have read, do you think it will fizzle out, be replaced or continue on its current track?
I wish I knew! It feels to me still like a speculation bubble, and that once it starts to pop, nervous speculators will get out fast. But I’m not claiming to have special predictive powers. I just know it’s not money.
 
The crash is inevitable - as this video illustrates:



The question is what happens after. Like with the dotcom bubble - that was the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.
 
It looks to me like we're in the tulip mania phase, there are adverts on the underground and in the DM now telling everyone to buy bitcoin, I think it'll burst spectacularly within a couple of years and be worth peanuts.

How many "ordinary" people in the street are buying Bitcoin? Hardly any I'd assume, it's only just beginning to hit the mainstream. When the mainstream actually does get on board it's going to be glorious.

Yes it will probably crash at some point in the future, but the room for insane rises when the mainstream gets on board is incredible imho.
 
Technically, it was coins made of gold, then other icons pegged to the value of gold that was money, not gold itself. And once states stopped relying on gold, it ceased to become money, thus rather neatly illustrating the point that it is not something essential to the commodity that makes it money, it rather something essential to the state.

Golumbia’s book linked to earlier in the thread and referenced in that post I linked to explains exactly why bitcoin isn’t money. I think some are just reluctant to read it, despite their claims that bitcoin is the most fascinating subject on earth. So here are some parts of the particularly important section, from the start of chapter 5:



And then a bit later, a crucial conclusion that includes this.


Notread that as of now but i consider myself a chartalist in the respect that the Ceasers face is what makes something money, golds characteristics was employed in creating money so that states could also trade between eachother, you need both sides of the coin. Bitcoin doesnt need to be money in thesense you mean but it could become that, perhaps it wont. Perhaps itll just be the baselayer money is made of. Maybe governments will find a way to stamp their face on it (verirfied addresses on tme settlement layer? LN channel providers?)

I dont'get the impression thst the 'Moneybadger' actualy cares its its called 'money' or not, "bitcoin does what it wants".
 
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How many "ordinary" people in the street are buying Bitcoin? Hardly any I'd assume, it's only just beginning to hit the mainstream. When the mainstream actually does get on board it's going to be glorious.

Yes it will probably crash at some point in the future, but the room for insane rises when the mainstream gets on board is incredible imho.

Loads I think. I'm one of them "ordinary people in the street" with no special knowledge at all and i bought last year for a punt. Now its advertised on the tube I don't think anyone can pretend this is some special hidden knowledge avant garde thing anymore. And its the massive buy-in from 'ordinary people' that's driven the recent rise isn't it?
 
Loads I think. I'm one of them "ordinary people in the street" with no special knowledge at all and i bought last year for a punt. Now its advertised on the tube I don't think anyone can pretend this is some special hidden knowledge avant garde thing anymore. And its the massive buy-in from 'ordinary people' that's driven the recent rise isn't it?

Apart from 1 other geek I work with, I don't know a single person that has got any. 2 out of an office of 25 IT nerds. So my experience is wildly different. Making a poll! :)
 
interestingly if you type 'tulip mania' into google the second suggestion is tulip mania bitcoin.

Loads I think. I'm one of them "ordinary people in the street" with no special knowledge at all and i bought last year for a punt. Now its advertised on the tube I don't think anyone can pretend this is some special hidden knowledge avant garde thing anymore. And its the massive buy-in from 'ordinary people' that's driven the recent rise isn't it?

it's not a massive buy-in, just the opposite, it's still moving at trivially low levels, only 300,000 transactions per day worldwide.

what makes that remarkable is the insanely high power consumption
 
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