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1)


Side question - You say "transaction currently costs 834kWh" - As far as I know that might well be right. But are you sure its per transaction and not per block?

I'm not implying a fake transaction. None of them are fake as far as I am aware. I am saying that either the transaction payment is legitimate but destination address is not a real address (in which case the transaction is still added to the block and the money waits in limbo for someone with the correct key to pick it up). Or people make a legitimate transaction and cram some stuff in the blank space that they've stretched out on the transaction.

Either way the power consumption is not much different from a normal transaction. The price doesn't effect the power. Similarly - price doesn't affect fees.

There is a total amount of energy used to mine btc blocks. And there is a total number of transactions per block. You divide one by the other to get the energy cost of each transaction. Given that being transacted on the block remains btc's only possible use value, it's entirely fair to calculate costs in this way.

Regarding that use value, we can't say for sure how many of those transactions involve selling stuff and how many are just people selling btc to each other. So the actual use value is rather less than the total number of transactions. It remains puny, batching or no.
 
Side question - You say "transaction currently costs 834kWh" - As far as I know that might well be right. But are you sure its per transaction and not per block?
That's what it says on Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index - Digiconomist
I won't swing for the exact number, it's an estimate based on various assumptions, but their methodology is consistent so comparisons over time ought to be meaningful.
 
Bitcoin is a disease in Barclays model that says prices peaked

Bitcoin models taking their path from epidemiology lessons. i.e. its fecked
An interesting approach. One based on the idea that bitcoin’s inherent value is very low, hence all price rises are due to a speculative bubble

If this approach is the right one, this seems a safe bet:

While the cryptocurrency bounced back from past price collapses in 2011 and 2013, the high level of awareness this time around signals Bitcoin may never return to its peak of nearly $20,000 in December, according to the Barclays model. The virtual currency was trading at about $6,700 on Tuesday.

On the other hand, let us not forget that $50,000 by June is a conservative estimate. So there’s that.
 
Apart from the die-hards who still think bitcoin is going to replace all the world's currencies and make them fabulously wealthy, bitcoin now seems to be firmly in the public mind as a trap for the greedy that is likely to collapse in value at any time - hard to see how that perception could be reversed enough for a lot of people to pour in money again and send it back to $20K.
 
All dead on the bitcoin front i see, bitcoin quietly tootling along now the excitement has died down, and bitcoins grim-faced opponents with little of interest to say for now due to bitcoin not really doing anything at the moment (well, an exploding Lightening Network and the continuing climb of wallet-count notwithstanding because those things dont directly involve a fiat price tag).

Theres z beleif in the bitcoin community that since futures opened the bitcoin price is being supressed, i think this too but cinxider it a good thing for this crypto, if bitcoins price does rise then we know thats going to be in the face of a lot of downward purposeful pressure, a rise under those conditions would best not be dismissed as hot greedy air imo. We'll see if such a rise does occur, i think it will for fundamental reasons, may even beat the previous ath by years end. All just my opinion.
 
All dead on the bitcoin front i see, bitcoin quietly tootling along now the excitement has died down, and bitcoins grim-faced opponents with little of interest to say for now due to bitcoin not really doing anything at the moment (well, an exploding Lightening Network and the continuing climb of wallet-count notwithstanding because those things dont directly involve a fiat price tag).

Theres z beleif in the bitcoin community that since futures opened the bitcoin price is being supressed, i think this too but cinxider it a good thing for this crypto, if bitcoins price does rise then we know thats going to be in the face of a lot of downward purposeful pressure, a rise under those conditions would best not be dismissed as hot greedy air imo. We'll see if such a rise does occur, i think it will for fundamental reasons, may even beat the previous ath by years end. All just my opinion.
So bitcoin is still the future, because it’s price is a third of its previous value? Because a drop of 67% in three months means it is “tootling along”, apparently. And now you think it was just “excitement” when it was at $20k despite the fact that at the time you were saying:
Yup, 50k by June sounds right. Conservative even.
But then you think that there may well be a future rise for “fundamental” reasons, and be higher than $20k by year end after all. Well, that’s a long way down on claiming that 50k by June is conservative, but you’re still in the game of talking about a trebling of price within six months as if that is just prosaic rather than a sign of problems.

What would it actually take for you to view this thing with healthy suspicion?
 
Well i just sold £1000 worth of cards today, the return on mining is fucked, even with "free leccy" i making fuck all.

I'm out!
 
So bitcoin is still the future, because it’s price is a third of its previous value? Because a drop of 67% in three months means it is “tootling along”, apparently. And now you think it was just “excitement” when it was at $20k despite the fact that at the time you were saying:

But then you think that there may well be a future rise for “fundamental” reasons, and be higher than $20k by year end after all. Well, that’s a long way down on claiming that 50k by June is conservative, but you’re still in the game of talking about a trebling of price within six months as if that is just prosaic rather than a sign of problems.

What would it actually take for you to view this thing with healthy suspicion?

I didn't say "Bitcoin is still the future because it's price is a third of its previous value". And frankly, if bitcoins price isn't zero now, then it was never going away to begin with.

I used to spend time and energy on these questions but don't bother anymore. This thing will either succeed or fail. But my suspicions were never that people will or won't buy and sell bitcoin, but rather will a bitcoin world mean Cryptodystopia, or Cryptoutopia, or as I suspect- Crypto-same-same. You just don't get the levitating mind-trick that means the thing ain't zero in the first place and won't be zero going forward. Keep wishing for free stuff though, if you perceive that as somehow a 'realistic' outcome.
 
I didn't say "Bitcoin is still the future because it's price is a third of its previous value". And frankly, if bitcoins price isn't zero now, then it was never going away to begin with.

I used to spend time and energy on these questions but don't bother anymore. This thing will either succeed or fail. But my suspicions were never that people will or won't buy and sell bitcoin, but rather will a bitcoin world mean Cryptodystopia, or Cryptoutopia, or as I suspect- Crypto-same-same. You just don't get the levitating mind-trick that means the thing ain't zero in the first place and won't be zero going forward. Keep wishing for free stuff though, if you perceive that as somehow a 'realistic' outcome.
What is a "bitcoin world" beyond a soundbite? What institutions would be using it as their ledger? Who is using it as a reference value? What does the money supply actually look like and where does it come from, bearing in mind that almost all the current money supply is created by private debt, not governments? Since the infrastructure is using the energy of a medium sized country just to process a tiny microscopic fraction of all the world's transactions, how is a bitcoin world actually managing to function?

It's easy to make high-minded clever-sounding prophesy about how bitcoin changes everything, but the practical realities of how the financial system works rather gets in the way of that. The details are always just hand-waved away. Well, here we are and we're, what, something like 7 or 8 years into this revolution? What exactly has it changed? What is going to kick-start this supposed crypto-world?
 
Yup, 7 or 8 years on faerie wings. Shrugz.
So you interpret the fact that it still actually exists after 7 or 8 years as de facto proof that it is going to change the world? Despite the fact that its actual achievements in that time are zilch?
 
I can't make it work now (because the computer remembers me) but the other day I typed 'how to' into google and 'buy bitcoin' was way down the list of suggested auto-completes, it was below 'make slime' and 'get pregnant'.
I'm sure it didn't used to be this way. :D
 
I can't make it work now (because the computer remembers me) but the other day I typed 'how to' into google and 'buy bitcoin' was way down the list of suggested auto-completes, it was below 'make slime' and 'get pregnant'.
I'm sure it didn't used to be this way. :D

I don't get "buy bitcoin" on an incognito Google search - though the algorithm does apparently think I can't spell and want to kill people.

googlehowto.JPG
 
I can't make it work now (because the computer remembers me) but the other day I typed 'how to' into google and 'buy bitcoin' was way down the list of suggested auto-completes, it was below 'make slime' and 'get pregnant'.
I'm sure it didn't used to be this way. :D


Yeah google is utter crap now, super controlled censored massaged etc. I did a search the other day, can't recall the term... but the top six or seven results on google were adverts, the ones below that were the not-an-ad results for the same sites. Search for news stories on google too, it'll all be wot the BBC, CNN, Reuters etc reckon is happening. Any other point of view made to un-exist.

Gave Yandex a go, it seems as good as google a few years ago, but didn't like the suspicious lag when viewing results, the Russians just aren't as good at snooping as the NSA maybe. Now I'm using a mix of engines- ixQwik as main, Wolfram Alpha for technical questions, Dogpile to use all the major engines at once, and some other thing I don't recall the name of for un-censored results (censored is usually good enough for my purposes).

The dangerous thing about life in the West is that you have no idea how utterly propagandised we are here, and then you visit India or something for a bit and suddenly the stuff they talk about back in Blighty strikes one as- really odd and narrow, and this will just be because of distance, not like-compared to Indian standards or whetever. I probably haven't explained that well.
 
I get a lot of the same things -- including getting away with a murderer -- but it thinks I might be interested in deleting facebook. Not just a facebook account, note, but the whole of facebook.

Capture.PNG
 
So you interpret the fact that it still actually exists after 7 or 8 years as de facto proof that it is going to change the world? Despite the fact that its actual achievements in that time are zilch?

I keep saying I don't think it'll change the world. Goddamnit, what would I have had to have done were I to be bothered to try an break thru your pre-conceptions.
 
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