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Hamas/Israel conflict: news and discussion

it’s estimated that repelling the attack cost $1 billion.
The US shot down over eighty drones and missiles . How sustainable is this for Israel?

Between Israel, the U.S. and the U.K., that sort of war money is probably a drop in the ocean. It doesn't sound like Iran wants to have another go currently anyway.
 
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What sort of 'analysis' do you think you end up with, where said 'analysis' is significantly predicated on flawed analyses by authors who are clearly struggling with the physics regimes they are attempting to interpret? Some of them aren't even considering the range of possibilities that could lead to the outcomes observed. Basic stuff. There's been a lot of guff 'analysis' in the MSM by talking heads, as well as in SM, the past 24 hours. Some ill-informed drivel broadcast on Sky and BBC ("Verify" am looking at you), almost amusing.

Separately, WSJ via DoD sources: upwards of 50% of the ~130 IRGC MRBM launch attempts last night ended in launch failure/crash prior to reaching Israeli airspace. Consequently, less than half of those launch detections necessitated interception.
Part of the reason I posted that particular one up was so that people such as yourself who are much better informed on this subject than me could come along and poke holes in it, which you did. I did qualify the tweets by saying it is very 'upbeat' from Iran's perspective. Perhaps I should have said 'heavily biased'. The poster may be right though (and the Iranian professor I watched in a series of vids) that the airbase they hit may be more heavily damaged than had been admitted. But of course most of us will have absolutely no idea and the thing is we'll never actually know for sure.
 
it’s estimated that repelling the attack cost $1 billion.
The US shot down over eighty drones and missiles . How sustainable is this for Israel?


Says it would have cost Iran less.

Its sustainable as long as countries like USA back Israel I'm assuming.

Arms to Israel/ military support should be stopped by all countries. Some are already doing this. But US is the main one.
 
I think anyone who thinks that Americans (broadly), apart from indifference - because they have their own lives and problems - will be opposed to supporting Israel defend itself against Iranian missile attacks, doesn't understand the depth & breadth of Iran's 'bogey-man' status in the US.

Attacking Iran on Israel's behalf would be a very different political conversation - as evidenced by every US president of the last 20+ years avoiding Israel's efforts to embroil them in such a scheme like a barefooted man avoids dog shit and broken glass on the street - but defending them, and arguably de-fanging (to an extent) Iran for the price of some SAM's? Nah, crack on....
 
I think anyone who thinks that Americans (broadly), apart from indifference - because they have their own lives and problems - will be opposed to supporting Israel defend itself against Iranian missile attacks, doesn't understand the depth & breadth of Iran's 'bogey-man' status in the US.

Attacking Iran on Israel's behalf would be a very different political conversation - as evidenced by every US president of the last 20+ years avoiding Israel's efforts to embroil them in such a scheme like a barefooted man avoids dog shit and broken glass on the street - but defending them, and arguably de-fanging (to an extent) Iran for the price of some SAM's? Nah, crack on....
Yeh those Americans who don't remember the 444 day captivity of Americans in Tehran about 44 years ago will recall the scores of films and TV series etc demonising Iran (and Arabs and Muslims in general)
 

Says it would have cost Iran less.

Its sustainable as long as countries like USA back Israel I'm assuming.

Arms to Israel/ military support should be stopped by all countries. Some are already doing this. But US is the main one.
I think they over estimated the cost to Iran.
Drones used in the Ukraine conflict cost $300-$500.

Iran doesn't even have to add explosives as Israel has to assume each attack includes explosives. If not this time then next time.

Israel can't and won't admit they spent a billion to shoot down $150k of harmless flying toys even if evidence exists.

I'm not cheering Iran on but I suspect they've played a blinder and chose the optimal strategy.

Both military and politically.
The Arabic world will believe their claims and not Israel's and the west denials.
They gain back face lost from Israeli aggression.
They've displayed a weakness and sent a message for the world to see. If I can build cheap drones faster than you build missiles... how many waves until you can't defend and I can send the real attack?
 
I think anyone who thinks that Americans (broadly), apart from indifference - because they have their own lives and problems - will be opposed to supporting Israel defend itself against Iranian missile attacks, doesn't understand the depth & breadth of Iran's 'bogey-man' status in the US.

Attacking Iran on Israel's behalf would be a very different political conversation - as evidenced by every US president of the last 20+ years avoiding Israel's efforts to embroil them in such a scheme like a barefooted man avoids dog shit and broken glass on the street - but defending them, and arguably de-fanging (to an extent) Iran for the price of some SAM's? Nah, crack on....
Remember they recently pulled out of Afghanistan primarily for fiscal reasons.

The Americans who didn't support that ongoing expense aren't looking to swap it for a new expensive war and occupation.

It would take immense loss of life. American lives at that.

Did anyone even die in the Iran attack let alone Americans?
 
There is a difference between Israel having the right to defend itself and my government and others like US providing support.

And what about Palestinians?

If people have right to defend themselves so do Palestinians in West Bank who have been occupied by Israel for decades.

I say West Bank as Hamas aren't in control there and still Palestinians are subject to occupation/ settlement building/

Yet same countries that fall over themselves to support Israel do little or nothing to support Palestinians.
 
Remember they recently pulled out of Afghanistan primarily for fiscal reasons.

The Americans who didn't support that ongoing expense aren't looking to swap it for a new expensive war and occupation.

It would take immense loss of life. American lives at that.

Did anyone even die in the Iran attack let alone Americans?

Eh?
 
I think they over estimated the cost to Iran.
Drones used in the Ukraine conflict cost $300-$500.

Iran doesn't even have to add explosives as Israel has to assume each attack includes explosives. If not this time then next time.

Israel can't and won't admit they spent a billion to shoot down $150k of harmless flying toys even if evidence exists.

I'm not cheering Iran on but I suspect they've played a blinder and chose the optimal strategy.

Both military and politically.
The Arabic world will believe their claims and not Israel's and the west denials.
They gain back face lost from Israeli aggression.
They've displayed a weakness and sent a message for the world to see. If I can build cheap drones faster than you build missiles... how many waves until you can't defend and I can send the real attack?

They're er... different drones. These ones have to go from Iran to Israel. There is more than one value of drones. hth
 
Foreign Secretary David Cameron the attack from Iran was a "double defeat", he said, because it failed both in terms of damage to Israel and showed Iran to be the "malign influence in the region."

Iran is already painted as the malign influence in the region. No change there.

I don't believe they intended to cause any damage other than financial expense. That would give people excuses to attack Iran. By causing no actual damage there are lots of excuses not to retaliate.

Double defeat? Yeah okay David.
 
They're er... different drones. These ones have to go from Iran to Israel. There is more than one value of drones. hth
You're right.

900 miles of flight needed.

Commercial drones can do about 31 miles.

So special drones needed.

Still 10 mil to cost you a billion.
If I'm willing to spend a billion that's going to cost you ten billion.
 
There is a difference between Israel having the right to defend itself and my government and others like US providing support.

And what about Palestinians?

If people have right to defend themselves so do Palestinians in West Bank who have been occupied by Israel for decades.

I say West Bank as Hamas aren't in control there and still Palestinians are subject to occupation/ settlement building/

Yet same countries that fall over themselves to support Israel do little or nothing to support Palestinians.

Sure, but that isn't the perspective of the question. If we're trying to understand what Americans think, and what the level of support for US arms to Israel is then the actual justice of a cause is only of marginal relevance relative to the ability of actors to sell a case to an audience. Support for Israel holds with republicans, and with the dem establishment (i.e with older, more centrist dems). See e.g this gallup poll. Netanyahu is evidently doing his best to erode that, but it's a fuck of a lot easier to make a case for 'mistakes have been made, but we need to protect Israeli lives' than it is for 'er... we're just going to give a country involved in a genocide some $$$'.
 
Sure, but that isn't the perspective of the question. If we're trying to understand what Americans think, and what the level of support for US arms to Israel is then the actual justice of a cause is only of marginal relevance relative to the ability of actors to sell a case to an audience. Support for Israel holds with republicans, and with the dem establishment (i.e with older, more centrist dems). See e.g this gallup poll. Netanyahu is evidently doing his best to erode that, but it's a fuck of a lot easier to make a case for 'mistakes have been made, but we need to protect Israeli lives' than it is for 'er... we're just going to give a country involved in a genocide some $$$'.

Whose the "we"?

I was saying what I think.
 
Whose the "we"?

Er... people who fall under the bit that immediately follows that; 'trying to understand what Americans think, and what the level of support for US arms to Israel is'. Which is us. The posters of urban. Among many others.

To add response to your edit; fair enough, I'm just talking in the context of the preceding discussion. If we want to understand what might happen our own perspectives are basically irrelevant. I don't personally feel much need to keep rehashing thoughts on the rank hypocrisy of it all.
 
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Tbf, whilst Biden is just continuing a not so grand tradition of almost unwavering support of Israel's "right to defend itself", I wouldn't entirely put my faith in Trumpists and their chants.
i don't. it was just a bit of an insight into voters. considering trump has offered full support to israel it seemed a bit unusual. trump replied "they're not wrong" or something.
 
The attack by Iran wasn't a real attack. It was cheap drones whose purpose was to cost Israel a fuck ton of money by shooting them down.

If Israel paint this as a real attack it will be for political reasons and to ramp.up hostility. I hope they get talked out of it and accept their medicine.
Hard for it not to be considered an attempted act of invasion and belligerence



An RQ170 isn't even armed
 
I think anyone who thinks that Americans (broadly), apart from indifference - because they have their own lives and problems - will be opposed to supporting Israel defend itself against Iranian missile attacks, doesn't understand the depth & breadth of Iran's 'bogey-man' status in the US.

Attacking Iran on Israel's behalf would be a very different political conversation - as evidenced by every US president of the last 20+ years avoiding Israel's efforts to embroil them in such a scheme like a barefooted man avoids dog shit and broken glass on the street - but defending them, and arguably de-fanging (to an extent) Iran for the price of some SAM's? Nah, crack on....

Iran doesn't want the war so the first scenario is moot. America getting dragged into a war against their will by an ally would be unprecedented and it would look absolutely terrible both domestically and internationally.

I don't think we need to go into the military tech bro stuff. Politically fault lines in American domestic politics have already opened up not just on the left but also on the right - see for instance Tucker Carlson and Candice Owens developing American first Israel sceptic lines in the right wing commentariat. We should remember that these are not the anti-establishment voices they pretend to be but represent a side in a divided ruling class. And the America aligned Israel normalised/normalising Arab regimes are being put under stress from their populations and the breaking point is unknown - a revolt could be completely unpredictable and region wide as we have already seen in 2011.

If Iran had fucked up and not let an option to de-escalate then the Americans could conceivably swing behind an Israeli retaliation. But Iran didn't and America won't.

Israel are the clear losers in this attempted escalation regardless of their military tech success. They can't defeat Hamas and they can't embroil America (for the minute).
 
Er... people who fall under the bit that immediately follows that; 'trying to understand what Americans think, and what the level of support for US arms to Israel is'. Which is us. The posters of urban. Among many others.

To add response to your edit; fair enough, I'm just talking in the context of the preceding discussion. If we want to understand what might happen our own perspectives are basically irrelevant. I don't personally feel much need to keep rehashing thoughts on the rank hypocrisy of it all.

I'm also a poster on Urban.

So your telling me what's ok to post here.

Because that's how that highlighted bit comes across.
 
I'm also a poster on Urban.

So your telling me what's ok to post here.

What? I don't know why you're carrying on with this. I just interpreted your post in light of the discussion that came immediately before it. You can post what you want.
 

Says it would have cost Iran less.

Its sustainable as long as countries like USA back Israel I'm assuming.

Arms to Israel/ military support should be stopped by all countries. Some are already doing this. But US is the main one.

Really? So you feel that the several hundred missiles fired from Iran should have gone unimpeded?

I really despair sometimes.
 
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