Who will win the 2024 US election?

[Ax^]

Given this it's hard not to conclude that if Harris wins it's just delaying the inevitable. There doesn't seem to be much indication of a likely Republican swing to the centre. Nor does there seem to be any movement in US politics to address the causes of this political breakdown or the glaring flaws in the constitution.

the political breakdown in the USA is not going to be cleared untill you wrestle control if the GOP from the. fundie Christian death cult that is maga..

aside from wanting to create the end times in Israel. the rest want a race war to occur within the united states


not much common ground to be found

 

[Rob Ray]

Lots of sexist, misogynistic societies have elected female leaders (not always nice ones). Pakistan, India, Bangladesh.

Generally they win from the right using "I'm not some softhearted liberal" though, or are seen as movement figureheads. It's much harder from the left in a normal electoral cycle.

 

[Yossarian]

I can't imagine Trump ever admitting to illness or surrendering the title of president and the trappings of power before his term is up - though there's probably a good chance he'll spend a lot of a second term golfing at Mar-a-Lago while Mike Johnson, Tucker Carlson, Roger Stone, JD Vance, Elon Musk, Vladimir Putin etc. do most of his work for him.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Generally they win from the right using "I'm not some softhearted liberal" though, or are seen as movement figureheads. It's much harder from the left in a normal electoral cycle.

Yes, this is true. However, I do think that in the case of the US, which is surely more similar culturally to Latin America and Europe/Australia/New Zealand than those examples anyway, the fact that it's never happened can be overplayed. Women have won from the right and from the left(ish).

That said, my prediction years ago was that the first black US president would be a Republican. I was wrong about that too, mind.

 

[Cloo]

The only vaguely satisfying thing to come out of a Trump win will be many, many accounts of his voters getting their faces eaten by leopards.

'I just never thought my daughter would get pregnant at college and now she'll pay for one mistake for the rest of her life...'
'My family relied on my overtime money but now my boss doesn't have to pay it...'
'I thought we'd get free speech but I just criticised my representative and got a visit from the police...'
'I can't find enough people to work on my farm...'

Sadly this will be significantly overshadowed by the number of people who knew all along they were being thrown to the leopards by everyone else

 

[emanymton]

Aye, direction of travel is obvious - a Harris win is only delaying the inevitable. I mean its four fewer years of living in a fascist shit hole than otherwise, which is great for those living there, but the end result is the same.

Being uncharacteristically optimistic here.

But this will be Trump's last attempt and the loons supporting him are not exactly the most stable and harmonious buch. It's possible that if Trump losses there will be lots of infighting and backstabbing and there is no guarantee they will agree on a figure to replace him. This could allow the merely vile in the Republican part to take back control from the insanely vile.

 

[Rob Ray]

There certainly doesn't seem to be an obvious clear successor in the wings which does suggest a fracturing process should he bite the big one (politically or biologically). How long that'd last for though is anyone's guess - the collapse of the Tea Party had a respite period of what, two or three years before Trump's rise?

 

[frogwoman]

Washington Post declines to endorse anyone reportedly because Bezos is worried about Amazon contracts after a Trump win.

 

[frogwoman]

My opinion is there's a lot of money behind Trump and it's literally part of their tactics to depress turnout and scare Harris voters.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

There certainly doesn't seem to be an obvious clear successor in the wings which does suggest a fracturing process should he bite the big one (politically or biologically). How long that'd last for though is anyone's guess - the collapse of the Tea Party had a respite period of what, two or three years before Trump's rise?

Yeah I'd think it would be unlikely that anyone could just slot in as Trump's direct successor and pick up the mad coalition he has tbh. There'll be plenty who'll fancy it but I doubt anyone can rally the same groups in the same way.

I'd imagine something just as vile would emerge in due course though, just it would be different in form in some ways.

 

[Cloo]

Washington Post declines to endorse anyone reportedly because Bezos is worried about Amazon contracts after a Trump win.

Yes, the effects of a retaliatory President are pretty chilling when you think about it this way. I mean, industry is usually up the arse of whoever is charge, but Trump will make it obligatory.

 

[Yossarian]

Michael Moore, who correctly predicted in 2016 that Trump would win after focusing on Rust Belt states, predicted a couple of weeks ago that Harris would win, saying he felt "there will be an uprising of women at the polls, handing Trump a historic defeat in which Harris could win it in a landslide."

But in what could be another correct prediction, he said there were ways in which the Democrats could still fuck everything up

Also, another mistake that could be made in these final 4-5 weeks is if Harris is advised by her wealthy donors to shun the left and drop her more progressive positions in favor of a “move to the center.” This, too, could reduce or depress the vote for Harris, especially among the base. I know many of you don’t want to hear that, but I’m just trying to warn you that the actions of party hacks and pundits have consequences. They had the candidate traipsing around Wisconsin yesterday with Liz Cheney to get out the vote.

 

[The39thStep]

If he gets back in the WH, there won't be another meaningful election in the US in my lifetime...

If this was the case it would be understandable if some countries recognised his opponent as the legitimate President and carried out measures to sanction the US .

 

[Humberto]

A take on some of the stakes here. Find this bit alarmingly plausible. Very much an obsession of his first and, let's hope, only term:

The same instinct animates his serial threats to the free press. “CBS should lose its license,” Trump posted on social media last week, after the network displeased him with an interview with Harris: “60 Minutes should be immediately taken off the air.” Earlier he had called for ABC’s licence to be “terminated” because he didn’t like the way his debate with Harris had gone. Presidents cannot block TV networks on a whim, but they do appoint the board that hands out broadcast licences – so it’s not an empty threat.

Trump really could be the next president. So it’s time to call his instincts what they are: fascist | Jonathan Freedland

Those who know him best use the F-word to describe the former president. Every warning light is flashing red, says Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland

www.theguardian.com

 

[Dr. Furface]

I'm afraid that misogyny will win out. I watched a program on MSNBC where they interviewed minority voters who were planning on voting for Trump. The basic theme was that "he's tough and manly" and they don't think Harris is tough (aka "manly") enough. They think Trump will help with financial situation because "he's a business guy." I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but the percent who will never vote for a woman is too high to overcome with all of the other obstacles such as the electoral college breakdown. I'm afraid I will never see a female president in my lifetime.

Maybe, but I've a friend in Houston who's all Texan - yep, guns and attitude - and she voted for Trump in 2016 because, she said, she hated 'that lying bitch' Hilary Clinton so much (I think she'd have voted for him against anyone back then, but anyway). Last time she abstained but this time she says she's voting for Harris because she's sick of the Republican's war on women's rights. She's just one but there must be many thousands or even millions of American women like her who'd normally sway Republican who feel the same way - hopefully enough of them live in those swing states to make a difference, not just red-or-dead Texas.

 

[petee]

Michael Moore, who correctly predicted in 2016 that Trump would win after focusing on Rust Belt states, predicted a couple of weeks ago that Harris would win, saying he felt "there will be an uprising of women at the polls, handing Trump a historic defeat

bigger than 2020's?

 

[King Biscuit Time]

Anyone know why the Betfair market has gone down ?

 

[Nylock]

From the graun

Carlson certainly isn’t the only one airing chauvinistic fantasies. In August, for example, the Fox News host Jesse Watters declared that, if elected, Harris was “going to get paralyzed in the situation room while the generals have their way with her” – a comment so disgusting that even Watters’ co-hosts asked him to take it back.

Watters is just a pound shop Carlson. I mean, they're both tawdry little men, but watters' performative outrage just comes across as a lot more "look at me being controversial and stuff!" desperate than Carlson's -which, though just as unhinged seemed to involve less obvious effort on his part...

Yeah I'd think it would be unlikely that anyone could just slot in as Trump's direct successor and pick up the mad coalition he has tbh. There'll be plenty who'll fancy it but I doubt anyone can rally the same groups in the same way.

I'd imagine something just as vile would emerge in due course though, just it would be different in form in some ways.

They'll probably coalesce around Vance, Hawley or some other odious fuck.

 

[toblerone3]

Trying to predict this election is a mugs game. My hopes are pinned on a depressed turnout among non-MAGA Republicans and increased turnout for Harris among shy women Democrats.

 

[Ax^]

Trying to predict this election is a mugs game. My hopes are pinned on a depressed turnout among non-MAGA Republicans and increased turnout for Harris among shy women Democrats.

this election should be swung by women..

they are the ones being attacked by weird maga cult

 

[weltweit]

CBA predicting the outcome

If Trump wins, same as before but perhaps more ..

If Harris wins similar to now ..

We will know the real result soon enough.

 

[baldrick]

I feel very nervous about Trump. But I remember the mauling in the mid-terms when the Dems came out hard on abortion rights and voters responded. The stakes are higher now, that Michael Moore article is pretty optimistic and I notice it was 3 weeks ago - I'm not convinced Harris' momentum is not going into reverse.

One thing I haven't seen much of is attacks on Trump's record in his first term - he promised a lot but didn't really deliver. I'm sure there's reasoning behind that but I don't know what it is.

Harris will win the popular vote. I'm not sure she will win where it really matters. Trump is leaning hard into areas he is strong - endorsements from wrestlers, an interview on JRE etc. That young working class man sector.

Harris has Beyonce. No one under 40 listens to her any more.

 

[pbsmooth]

It seems they think Gaza is hurting Harris. With young people and Arab voters. Some Muslim group have backed Trump in Chicago. Bad feeling…

 

[Ax^]

Turkeys voting for Christmas ...

like every other gobshite in the states

god literal sends a fucking biblical plague and they are thinking of voting for orange turd

 

[Humberto]

Turkeys voting for Christmas ...

like every other gobshite in the states

god literal sends a fucking biblical plague and they are thinking of voting for orange turd

There's billions of dollars spent and decades of groundwork led them there.

 

[krtek a houby]

Harris has Beyonce. No one under 40 listens to her any more.

Oh?

Harris has not just Beyonce but Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, Willie Nelson. My nephew is 15 and listens to Pink Floyd. Not sure how they feel about Harris.

 

[Wookey]

Harris has Beyonce. No one under 40 listens to her any more.

Two words spring to mind: Taylor, and Swift.....

 

[Smangus]

HTF did I miss that? (Any comments referencing anno domini will be met with a vituperative barrage. ).

Should have gone to Specsavers!

 

[Wilf]

My nephew is 15 and listens to Pink Floyd. Not sure how they feel about Harris.

Comfortably numb.

 

[ID47]

Anyone know why the Betfair market has gone down ?

No idea, huge amounts of money going on a Trump win. https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner

God help us.