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Who will win the 2024 US election?

Who will win?

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Trump as enough American voters in the key areas will have issues voting for women and particularly women of colour :(

Also while I’m trying to avoid coverage on the whole as both options are ultimately a disaster (though in different ways and to different degrees) the impression I get is Harris is stalling and has little to offer other than not being Trump, conversely there can be no element of America that hasn’t reached a verdict on Trump - so if you don’t hate him by now you will never hate him and you’d probably vote for him
 
I would have thought everybody in the US had made their minds up about Trump long ago but some groups have shifted toward him in the last couple of years

The Times/Siena polls suggest Mr. Trump has made his largest gains among young Black and Hispanic voters — especially young Black and Hispanic men.

Overall, he has a 55-38 lead among Hispanic men 45 or younger. Ms. Harris leads among Black men under 45, but only by 69-27. The results among 18-to-29-year-old Hispanic and Black men are even more striking, though the samples are small.

In contrast, Ms. Harris holds far more typical leads for a Democrat among younger women, with a 68-30 edge among Hispanic women under 45 and 87-6 among young Black women.

 
Yossarian said:
I think revulsion at the strict post-Roe abortion bans, plus abortion referendums in numerous states, will boost turnout in a way that should deliver a solid win for Harris, but I won't be totally surprised if Trump manages to pull off another narrow Electoral College victory
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This re the reproductive rights stuff. Though I do think Trump's going to win. I'd be incredibly happy to be proven wrong of course.
 
I work with loads of Americans but they're a poor indicator of all this, given they generally live in California or NYC and aren't exactly Trump's target market. We have people in N Carolina too but don't really know any of them.
 
My political instincts are dogshit. I thought that Remain would win the referendum and that Clinton would win the US election. So just to make sure that it doesn't happen, I'm going to say that Trump will win, will die in office due to a cheeseburger overdose, and Vance will take over and implement Peter Thiel and the Heritage Foundation's most delirious ambitions. I might even place a bet just to seal the deal.
 
Flavour said:
A simple prediction thread.

I think Harris will win but by a very very narrow margin, but will take Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia. Trump to take north Carolina, Arizona, Ohio and Florida.
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agree with the rest but not AZ. gallego is well up in all polls and lake is so fkng insane that it may drag down trump?
 
I think a lot of Trump's success is down to right wing people who always vote GOP, don't read any press or pay any attention at all to the election campaign and just think 'He's pro business and low tax, he gets my vote'
 
Flavour said:
A simple prediction thread.

I think Harris will win but by a very very narrow margin, but will take Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia. Trump to take north Carolina, Arizona, Ohio and Florida.
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I'm not sure Florida can be considered a swing state nowadays. I think it's shifted heavily Republican last few years.
 
Even though Harris/Democrats are utter shite, next to the fascist adjacent Trump Republicans they're fucking angels. I suspect Trump will win most of the "swing states". He'll lose the popular vote though, but that means nothing when the system lets a small number of flakey fuckers decide the winner.
 
There are no good options from what I can see. Maybe it's the bleak mood I'm in from general life shit atm but my amateurish take is:

Outcome 1 (most likely as far as i can see):
Likelihood is that Harris stomps Trump in the popular vote but Trump wins the EC. Likely a narrow victory but he will spin it as the bigliest win that ever won. Within the year, the US will be out of NATO, any international climate commitments will be torn up and trashed as the Trump admin swings back towards a fossil fuel based economy, there'll be a massive trade war with china and the EU, things will look really shaky for Europe Regarding russia and the US will be fully embroiled in a region-wide war in the middle east before the end of 2025, dragging us in with them thanks to the "special relationship". Taiwan, S. Korea and Japan will be emphatically chucked under the bus leading to possible conflict with their neighbours and the US sitting it out as it's too busy going after Iran and their Oil reserves. Domestically things take a very dark turn as Trump implements Agenda 2025 (it's like project 2025 but the Trumpy version) and makes good on his promise to 'round up the illegals' and deport them en-masse (among other horrors).

Option 2:
Harris defies the current predictions and wins an overwhelming popular vote and also by a narrow margin in the EC. The Trumpy side of the equation immediately kicks into gear and litigates the shit out of the results tieing the country up in an ugly knot and kicking off a massive constitutional crisis. The tempo of violent incidents relating to the outcome of the US election will increase making an already toxic political climate positively radioactive. Whilst the US is good and distracted by all the shenanigans and bullshit on the domestic stage, the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war widens and the IDF go in hard on west bank clearances and annexation of the Gaza strip leading to a wider conflagration in the ME (not necessarily other nations vs Israel but the wider Palestinian diaspora and sympathisers potentially causing massive waves of unrest in the countries immediately neighbouring it, leading to a trigger event of some sort). China takes full advantage of US electoral naval-gazing and moves to bring Taiwan back into the fold with a full-scale invasion (current exercises are sending alarming signs of intent). Russia carries on pummeling Ukraine safe in the knowledge that American post-electoral paralysis will result in Ukraine eventually capitulating by springtime due to a lack of material to continue fighting. Eventually Harris is sworn-in but with so many domestic and international crises to manage, she never gets to properly implement her agenda and the dems are wiped out in the 2026 midterms by a thoroughly pissed-off electorate leading to a thoroughly blocked agenda and a Vance ticket victory in 2028.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong. I really hope it's option 3 (Harris kerb stomps him in the popular vote and overwhelms him in the EC with a victory that's too large to challenge, but sadly we no longer live in a world where such a thing is possible :( )
 
Option 4 - The Republican vote collapses after the "October Surprise" turns out to be video of Vance fucking an underage couch. Harris wins a resounding victory and the MAGA movement dissipates after Trump chokes to death on a cheeseburger while watching election results
 
Trump.

Harris will win the popular vote, though not by much - but that's not the one that matters.

I'm with Nylock on the timeline. His first term was amateur hour with the republican party fighting him on most stuff, and anyone who was on his side was an absolute fuckwit - this time it will be completely different. Proper, coherent, professional fascist state within a year or so.

The US pulling out of NATO (whether in fact, or in perseption is irrelevant) and it's guarantees to Taiwan, will see major wars in Europe and Pacific rim. The European war will almost certainly go nuclear.

There you go, a joyful prediction.
 
pbsmooth said:
Ah yes the old political elite establishment are out to get us. Us being Trump backed by the world’s richest person etc. 🙄
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tim-actually-went-under-elons-skin-v0-grmad3mhhdwd1.jpeg
 
kebabking said:
Trump.

Harris will win the popular vote, though not by much - but that's not the one that matters.

I'm with Nylock on the timeline. His first term was amateur hour with the republican party fighting him on most stuff, and anyone who was on his side was an absolute fuckwit - this time it will be completely different. Proper, coherent, professional fascist state within a year or so.

The US pulling out of NATO (whether in fact, or in perseption is irrelevant) and it's guarantees to Taiwan, will see major wars in Europe and Pacific rim. The European war will almost certainly go nuclear.

There you go, a joyful prediction.
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Britain doesn't have an indepedent nuclear armory. It doesn't have a capable conventional deterrrent.

You fat-headed wankers.
 
Yossarian said:
I think revulsion at the strict post-Roe abortion bans, plus abortion referendums in numerous states, will boost turnout in a way that should deliver a solid win for Harris, but I won't be totally surprised if Trump manages to pull off another narrow Electoral College victory
Click to expand...
You're predicting a higher % turnout than 2020 then? Turnout in 2022 was lower in 2018, and I know mid-terms are different but the I'd not be surprised if disappointment with the Democrats, especially over Israel-Palestine, and some exhaustion of the 'keep the fascist' out saw turnout slightly lower than in 2020.

Re the OP question, I predict Harris will take the popular vote, but I think it is pretty much a toss up for the EC, probably Harris narrowly in favour.
EDIT: At the same time things are so narrow in a lot of states that I think there's a reasonable chance that Harris could win a more comfortable EC victory than Biden.
 
Last edited:
Ax^ said:
hmm did he not load the supreme court which has already lead to an over turn of row Vs wade? amongst other shit :hmm:
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Yes, but he was only able to do so because a couple of the judges fell into their graves.
 
redsquirrel said:
You're predicting a higher % turnout than 2020 then? Turnout in 2022 was lower in 2018, and I know mid-terms are different but the I'd not be surprised if disappointment with the Democrats, especially over Israel-Palestine, and some exhaustion of the 'keep the fascist' out saw turnout slightly lower than in 2020.
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I think turnout might be flat among other groups but higher among people who support abortion rights, because of the Roe decision and the Handmaid's Tale shit happening in Texas and other states.

I'm not sure if polling reflects that - even Kansas, which hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, voted 59% to 41% to protect abortion rights when there was a referendum in 2022, polling shortly before the election found 47% in favour of a constitutional amendment to remove the right to abortion, 43% in support of abortion rights, and 10% undecided.
 
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