A
Alex Garland's latest film -- Civil War -- about a....civil war in the US is out here in April...
What chance does Trump have of winning the 2024 Presidential Election?
- Thread starter singsongfun
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littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I think he'd be bound to lose the popular vote again, probably by several million, so for him to win, everything would have to go right for him. It did in 2016, but that was something of a fluke. To win again, he'll need to be flukey again.
Thing about voter suppression is that it produces a reaction. We've seen that in Georgia. There will be huge numbers of volunteers out countering suppression. It also has its limits.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
As littlebabyjesus said, point stands. I think you only make £13 now for every £87 spent, can't be bothered to do the maths again.
Yeah.
The best odds you can get on Trump winning the candidacy are 1/16 (ignoring Betfair).
BUT
That still gives a profit of around 6%. This is literally free money if you are sure Trump will win the Republican candidacy.
spring-peeper
Well-Known Member
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
The Russian and the Chinese rulers will probably laugh and say that the fact that the Democrats couldn't find anybody younger and more dynamic than Biden only highlights the decadence of western democracy. Or summat like that.
If what you say comes true and the US begins to fragment, there will be no real short-term solution and it will obviously throw the rest of the world into turmoil. It would be a massive boost to right-wing populism everywhere, and a body-blow to the tired, out-of-ideas liberal left. And this at the point of multiple converging-and largely insoluble-crises. All bets would be off.
And the thing is, even if 'Trumpism' fails this time around, it's bound to re-emerge, possibly in a more virulent form. Somebody above points to the way many of the young are drawn to this shit by the internet. And those who oppose them are strangled by the identity politics con-trick. Working class organisation is, with the exception of a few places, at an all-time low and fighting against the odds to get a look-in.
As I said recently, Spengler, as far as he can be understood by oiks, did predict all this... Converging crises. democracy (which he disapproved of) unable to cope, resulting in pseudo- democracies giving free-rein to populist demagogues. The rise of oligarchies, and the eventual end of what is considered to be culturally 'The West'...
What an irony if the 'liberating moment' of 1989 turned out to have been the exact opposite of what it was said to be, and signalled the end of liberal democracy. The relative stability of the Cold War world was already a distant memory 20 years ago, and things have only got worse
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littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
This is crap, though. The Cold War was a state of permanent instability. Its end ushered in much better times for people in the ex-Warsaw Pact countries.
That doesn't mean that history ended then. Other shit can and will happen after that good thing has happened. But harking back to the period before the good thing happened because bad things have happened since is no better than Trumpian MAGA bullshit harking back to segregationist USA.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Except we can't be sure Trump will win the Republican candidacy.
There is still a small hypothetical chance that Nikki Haley might win.
There is also a small hypothetical chance that Trump may die, or be prevented from continuing or just decide not to bother.
All of these things are taken into account by the bookies when calculating the odds, which is why they're still accepting bets.
If it was literally a 100% certainty, they wouldn't be taking bets anymore.
Jeff Robinson
Marxist-Lentilist: Jackboots and Jackfruit
He doesn’t need to do better though, Biden just needs to do worse. And his polling is currently at an all time low.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
True. Maybe I should have said relative predictability instead of stability, paricularly with regard to the internal politics of Europe west and east. That isn't necessarily to say that it was a desirable situation, which is why I didn't. But today's Europe is clearly less predictable, while the US is turning into a political basket case.
As for people's lives in the former Warsaw Pact changing for the better, it will depend on the circumstances and perceptions of the individual, but the rise of right wing populism is surely a sign of festering discontent and disappointment on the part of millions, and has little to do with nostalgia for the pre-'89 days.
History clearly didn't end then, which was the point of my post, so I'm not sure why you've introduced the idea.
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
In other words, if you are going to bet, do it now.
I've said this before, but it really is true. For some reason I can't quite fathom the British public has been misled in a way that the US public has not. The truth is that Biden is non compos mentis. That is why he cannot win and should not run. Also, everyone in the USA knows this. Here is today's New York Times, probably the most pro-Biden of all the MSM:
"A lengthy report by the Department of Justice on President Biden’s handling of classified documents contained some astonishing assessments of his well-being and mental health. Mr. Biden, 81, was an “elderly man with a poor memory” and “diminished faculties” who “did not remember when he was vice president,” the special counsel Robert K. Hur said. In conversations recorded in 2017, Mr. Biden was “often painfully slow” and “struggling to remember events and straining at times to read and relay his own notebook entries.” So impaired was Mr. Biden that a jury was unlikely to convict him, Mr. Hur said."
Now if the NYT is reporting this, that means that everyone accepts it no matter how committed to the Dems. You lot should be wondering why your media is hiding Biden's condition from you.
Memory Loss Requires Careful Diagnosis, Scientists Say
A federal investigator said that President Biden had “poor memory” and “diminished faculties.” But such a diagnosis would require close medical assessment, experts said.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
That may be, but nor is Trump.
And, judging by your posts, it becomes questionable if you are, TBH.
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That's right. And so the next question is: why is the population of the most powerful country in the world being offered a choice between two such obvious incompetents? Could it perhaps be that the true power lies behind the scenes, wielded by Shadowy Actors whose identity can nevertheless be deduced with a fair degree of accuracy on the basis of cui bono? Well, could it?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
That aspect of the US electoral system was pointed out decades ago. It's been true for a very long time. To name two people, both Gore Vidal and William Burroughs pointed it out. Probably people before them as well.
It's largely true here as well, of course. Just look at what Starmer is doing to the Labour Party right now. I think it's an inherent feature of so-called 'first past the post' electoral systems (stupid name as the whole point is that there is no post), which inevitably give rise to two-party systems. All liberal democracy systems are flawed, but FPTP is especially shit and undemocratic.
gosub
~#
Reportage of this has been well covered in UK press and in real time. Actually been able to spectate the scenery wobbling in the background if you were avid enough.I've said this before, but it really is true. For some reason I can't quite fathom the British public has been misled in a way that the US public has not. The truth is that Biden is non compos mentis. That is why he cannot win and should not run. Also, everyone in the USA knows this. Here is today's New York Times, probably the most pro-Biden of all the MSM:
"A lengthy report by the Department of Justice on President Biden’s handling of classified documents contained some astonishing assessments of his well-being and mental health. Mr. Biden, 81, was an “elderly man with a poor memory” and “diminished faculties” who “did not remember when he was vice president,” the special counsel Robert K. Hur said. In conversations recorded in 2017, Mr. Biden was “often painfully slow” and “struggling to remember events and straining at times to read and relay his own notebook entries.” So impaired was Mr. Biden that a jury was unlikely to convict him, Mr. Hur said."
Now if the NYT is reporting this, that means that everyone accepts it no matter how committed to the Dems. You lot should be wondering why your media is hiding Biden's condition from you.
Memory Loss Requires Careful Diagnosis, Scientists Say
A federal investigator said that President Biden had “poor memory” and “diminished faculties.” But such a diagnosis would require close medical assessment, experts said.www.nytimes.com
Well I don't know about that, but I got banned every time I mentioned it on here.
Editor's clearly in the pay of the 'Shadowy Actors'.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
You're dog-whistling up the wrong tree, on here!
I assume you mean Jews, but being a charitable type, I'm willing to believe that you might be obsessing about the Free Masons or the Dalai Lama.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
tbf that US politics is controlled from behind the scenes by powerful actors who don't want their involvement to be publicised isn't a new or particularly controversial observation. There are exceptions. Bernie Sanders is an exception. But it's generally true. I didn't hear the dog whistle, but maybe that's because I'm not a dog?
andysays
Love and solidarity
Biden is clearly not the only one who's non compos mentis.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
CPAC, for example, have huge conventions that are broadcast, so they are hardly shadowy. There are plenty of other groups, powerful individuals and foreign nations that, overtly and covertly lobby, bribe and blackmail politicians and political parties and who also use the media to sway public opinion to suit their interests They have an influence, but they don't control, "from behind the scenes", what the actual results are. That is done by registered electors going out and ticking or punching ballot papers.
Trump lost in 2020 because he didn't get enough votes. He won in 2016 because he got enough vote in the right places. The latter result wasn't predetermined by Putin or anyone else deciding that Trump was their man; and the former wasn't brought about by Hugo Chavez rising from his grave and, like some malevolent Santa, mounting his sleigh and criss-crossing the USA stuffing forged ballot sheets into mail bags and fiddling with vote counting machines.
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
Capitalising random words as if it somehow establishes them in the definitive (e.g. Leftist Thugs, Illegal Rape Gangs) appears to be a peculiarly far and/or alt right trait. I'm sure studies more scientific than my anecdotal one will have been done, but it can clearly be seen in the difference between comments on e.g. the Guardian and the Daily Mail.
Oh and while we're at it:
But of course, your 6 years off were spent in search of balance, not hanging around in far right internet sewers.
Oh and while we're at it:
But of course, your 6 years off were spent in search of balance, not hanging around in far right internet sewers.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
pogofish
Testicle Hairstyle
I think it might have more to do with neither party having made the effort to foster/encourage new leadership within their parties. I can't in my lifetime remember when there wasn't a choice of potential heir-apparent on either side and I'm just not seeing that currently.
I think the Democrats have some good candidates for future leadership/office but their time is yet to come. Republicans, currently no - their second line are spending more time knocking lumps out of or brown-nosing each other instead of working for any future.
Its like they have skipped or abandoned a full generation of potential talent and new ideas.
The donor/backer relationship in US politics might well play a part of course. All too many of them are looking to serve short-term self-interests, instead of displaying any long term alignment to a political cause.
And no, I'm not counting the Trump spawn as potential successors at all..!
gosub
~#
I don't see how Republicans can get out of their rut...this Ukraine aid Mexico border thingy...some Republicans worked on doing what they claimed they 2ant (others didnt) but then it gets road blocked by the the bloke whose actually 2nd replacement for the President just so the Republicans can campaign on inaction...its not a serious party at the moment
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