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Who will win the 2024 US election?

Who will win?


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I thought it was quite interesting last night that Channel 4 had this reporter in the US who said that all the things you think are true about Trump, his supporters think are true about Harris and the Democrats. That they stole the election. That they are using the DOJ to conduct a witchhunt on him etc etc. As angry as you are about him, they are the same about them.
 
Who else can be held to blame for electing a liar, cheat, insurrectionist, conman, sex offender and convicted criminal to the highest political office in the United States, if not his voters?

Clearly there is no moral compass left in that country, so if they're not to be labelled as collectively stupid, then it surely points to them sharing the same appalling attitudes as he has. I'm not even interested in analysing why they voted for that thing, - the mere fact that they did tells me everything I need to know. To try to objectively analyse or provide reasons for it simply gives it credence.

Like I said already, they bloody deserve him and all the shite he will bring to their doors.

I'm done with it all now. I've had enough. Bugger the lot of them.
So, what would you advise the Democrats to do? With your analysis of what happened, is there anything they can do?
 
So, what would you advise the Democrats to do? With your analysis of what happened, is there anything they can do?
They might well get back in next time because, well, we're in late-era neoliberal capitalism with global warming hitting ever-harder and stuff keeps going wrong. So the incumbent will be punished because things are going to shit.

That could be a pattern over the coming years around the world. Incumbents are repeatedly kicked out, blamed for the latest disaster as they continue to attempt to follow the same failing model. Trumpist economics will be a disaster, but then so will the Democrat neoliberal economics that follows it, then whatever replaces Trump, then the neolibs again, etc, etc.
 
They might well get back in next time because, well, we're in late-era neoliberal capitalism with global warming hitting ever-harder and stuff keeps going wrong. So the incumbent will be punished because things are going to shit.

That could be a pattern over the coming years around the world. Incumbents are repeatedly kicked out, blamed for the latest disaster as they continue to attempt to follow the same failing model. Trumpist economics will be a disaster, but then so will the Democrat neoliberal economics that follows it, then whatever replaces Trump, then the neolibs again, etc, etc.
Yeah, entirely possible that the Dems will be Tweedle Dum and win next time by default, pretty much Labour did with an empty suit in charge and an empty party. The bit that depresses me, probably because it's so raw at the moment, is the Trump/Musk directed political discourse heading further into some post truth dystopian world of untruth and hate. Not sure what the Dems will have to combat that.
 
Yeah, entirely possible that the Dems will be Tweedle Dum and win next time by default, pretty much Labour did with an empty suit in charge and an empty party. The bit that depresses me, probably because it's so raw at the moment, is the Trump/Musk directed political discourse heading further into some post truth dystopian world of untruth and hate. Not sure what the Dems will have to combat that.
Well what I think they should do and what they will do are two entirely different things. I think they should listen to Sanders and get someone like AOC ready to be the next president. And fuck pandering to the right.

But will they learn that lesson from this? Probably not. Harris was probably too radical or something.

After what I actually thought was quite a promising start, Harris ended up mouthing empty platitudes about hope and shared values. Did someone advise her to do that? Probably. Didn't work, did it?
 
the victory of lying is truly depressing
Yeah, have been thinking about this a fair bit recently, and talking about it at work today. For a society to function, we need to be able to trust something, to some extent, at least. It all falls apart, comes to a grinding halt, if we if the idea of truth has been so severely broken that we feel we can't believe anything we're told, or see, or hear, or read.

talking past people
Oh, sweet christ, this absolutely infuriates me like almost nothing else.

As much as I can be obtuse and belligerent and generally twattish about it, I honestly do see most arguments as an earnest attempt to pit premises, facts and conclusions against each other and see what is most convincing. If I think you're wrong, I want you to be right. And if I'm wrong, then jaysis do I want to be right as quickly as bloody possible.

I simply do not understand the point if you're not even actually trying to actually convince the other person to change their mind, or possibly even have yours changed. Like, you can do a shit job of it, but at least try. Otherwise it's just so boring, and such a waste of fucking time and energy.
 
The Democrats need to filibuster as often as possible in the Senate (although certain pieces of legislation are filibuster proof). You need 60 senators to override the filibuster so the Republicans don’t have a supermajority there.

They should also try to find as many moderate and sympathetic Republicans as they can in the House and Senate to frustrate Trump’s legislative agenda. The whip system in the US is nowhere near as strong or effective as it is in the UK.

Those are the only potential saving graces I can see there. The problem for me will be Trump’s use of executive orders to gut the federal government and god knows what he plans on doing with regard to foreign policy. It’s going to be messy.
 
The Democrats need to filibuster as often as possible in the Senate (although certain pieces of legislation are filibuster proof). You need 60 senators to override the filibuster so the Republicans don’t have a supermajority there.
I think it'd be quite fun if the Democrats did so by simply reading the transcripts from when the Republicans did it (didn't they do a lot of it under McConnell's tenure?).
 
One of the things that fascinates me about the whole campaign the Democrats ran this time was that it had no substantive content at all. People were supposed to vote for Harris because she was “brat,” whatever that means; then because of “joy;” then because Donald Trump was Donald Trump; then because Donald Trump was Hitler; then because Donald Trump was Hitler, Attila the Hun, Ming the Merciless, Monster Zero, and Batboy all rolled into one — and then the ceiling fell in. There was a time when the Democrats knew they had to offer voters a vision of a better future, but they’ve lost that completely: it’s all “you have to vote for us or things will get worse,” as though the current miserable mess is the best we can possibly hope for. I suspect that did more to doom them than anything else.
 
I think it'd be quite fun if the Democrats did so by simply reading the transcripts from when the Republicans did it (didn't they do a lot of it under McConnell's tenure?).
You don’t even need to get up and speak anymore to do the filibuster in the US which makes its existence all the more egregious.
 
tbh I started fearing the worst after I saw that appalling Lincoln Project thing about women voting against their husbands' wishes. Making this a women vs men thing was the ultimate in empty messaging. No it wasn't the Democrats doing it directly, but that was the LP's idea of doing something to help.

Harris had started off with a list of things she wanted to do. Not just women's reproductive rights, but also union rights, holdiay rights, health rights, various concrete things. They all seemed to disappear. Why?
 
So, what would you advise the Democrats to do? With your analysis of what happened, is there anything they can do?

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - The Democrats have a problem with leadership. ie, They have failed to adequately develop at least one, maybe two generations of new leadership talent within the party. Obama was a one-off/natural and before him, Clinton at least originally stood-up well but nobody since has come near, despite some very promising people further down the party hierarchy. Someone of their calibre could have turned the tide away from Trump IMO and they should be bringing the new guard-on/forward ASAP.
 
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - The Democrats have a problem with leadership. ie, They have failed to adequately develop at least one, maybe two generations of new leadership talent within the party. Obama was a one-off/natural and before him, Clinton at least originally stood-up well but nobody since has come near, despite some very promising people further down the party hierarchy. Someone of their calibre could have turned the tide away from Trump IMO and they should be bringing the new guard-on/forward ASAP.
I wouldn't over-estimate Clinton. He is superficially a skilled orator, but he got lucky in the 90s elections in the shape of a genuine third candidate to split the vote on the right with Perot. And he was an appalling president. He presided over many of the things that have got us to where we are now. Mass incarceration, deregulation, foreign interventions. He was awful.
 
So now we must expect attempts to spool out much of the Heritage Foundation's "Project 2025" agenda which will probably involve a great deal of supra-structural manipulation and embedding. But it is the plans for the economic base that will inevitably have the greatest consequence. These include Randian ideals like flatter tax rates, a shifting tax burden from wealth/income to consumption, undermining rights to organised labour, removing environmental restraints on economic activity (particularly extractive industries), and abolishing the federal reserve.

Interestingly questions on Foreign trade, and specifically the balance between free-trade and protectionism have not been fully resolved by the Heritage Foundation, but Trump himself seems fully wedded to tariffs, so I suppose we should expect to see trade barriers erected and, of course, that has the potential to adversely affect Reeves/OBR growth forecasts.
With the republicans having the trifecta, those who drafted project 2025 are likely to be as giddy as a 5 year-old on christmas morning who's facing a mountain of gifts on the sofa. The 2025 lot wanted all 3 branches along with the SC so they could steamroll as much of the agenda through in the first 100 days as possible. Whether they succeed or not in the face of Trump's notorious erraticness is anyone's guess but it's likely the first 100 days of his presidency is going to see some potentially permanently damaging stuff being enacted -assuming Trump doesn't bin it all and go off on a vastly different tangent to what he's been openly campaigning on.
Yes, it’s hard to overstate how much power Trump and his advisers will have. There are no checks and balances. The US populace will experience the full wrath of Trump’s hatred and the full wrath of his advisers’ fanaticism.
Sadly, the percentage of the populace that did not vote for this crap will be the ones to suffer the most. The percentage of those who voted for it but knowing full-well what would happen to those on the wrong side of it will be openly and insufferably cheering it on.
Sanders succinctly nails it:
Yeah. Its been said many times before but the dems really blew it when they fucked him over. Twice.
Who else can be held to blame for electing a liar, cheat, insurrectionist, conman, sex offender and convicted criminal to the highest political office in the United States, if not his voters?
JFC, this is not having a go at you but:
...how about the ones who failed to offer a proper alternative and just wanted to maintain the status quo? Or those who lacked the moral fibre to turn the tap off for Netanyahu's bloody vengeance crusade? Or those who were complicit in the fucking over of the working class? Or those who failed to put a proper microscope on how the republican side of the equation, even when in opposition, repeatedly and enthusiastically enacted policies that would make their lives significantly worse and duplicitously voted against things that would make their lives better? Or how about that spineless fuck Garland not expediting a prosecution of Trump when the political momentum was on the side of that happening (i.e. Biden's forst 100 days)? Plus many other instances, both historic and contemperaneous. Make no mistake, as venal and mendacious as the republicans are, their opposite numbers also have a significant amount to answer for.
They might well get back in next time because, well, we're in late-era neoliberal capitalism with global warming hitting ever-harder and stuff keeps going wrong. So the incumbent will be punished because things are going to shit.

That could be a pattern over the coming years around the world. Incumbents are repeatedly kicked out, blamed for the latest disaster as they continue to attempt to follow the same failing model. Trumpist economics will be a disaster, but then so will the Democrat neoliberal economics that follows it, then whatever replaces Trump, then the neolibs again, etc, etc.
Yep, and then that's us doomed to an ossifying of the kind of short-termism that 4-year electoral cycles tend to breed. In short, it's pretty fucked =/
tbh I started fearing the worst after I saw that appalling Lincoln Project thing about women voting against their husbands' wishes. Making this a women vs men thing was the ultimate in empty messaging. No it wasn't the Democrats doing it directly, but that was the LP's idea of doing something to help.

Harris had started off with a list of things she wanted to do. Not just women's reproductive rights, but also union rights, holdiay rights, health rights, various concrete things. They all seemed to disappear. Why?
Apprently, the messaging diluted and altered when Biden's team got directly involved in the Harris-Walz campaign...
 
I'm not swayed by buzz phrases like "liberal elites" and "identity politics". They may sound impressive but they mean little

I'm not swayed by buzz phrases like "liberal elites" and "identity politics". They may sound impressive but they mean little

OK, there's two different phrases there that I'm going to have to explain.

The first is "liberal elites". I used this when I was explaining the view that disenfranchised people who are receptive to far right rhetoric hold of wealthy lawyers and the like. This is me paraphrasing a MAGA worldview. I'll come back to that.

The second is "liberal identity politics". This is something I personally am critical of. This is me putting across something of my worldview.

So that's the first thing to clear up.

Next, as a libertarian communist, I use the word liberal in a particular way. I will reproduce a post I wrote a decade ago explaining what I mean by it:


If I call someone a liberal, I mean it in a specific sense. Not to mean that they belong to a capital L political party, nor, as those the American right do, to mean that they are somewhere to the left of wherever the speaker stands, nor do I mean that they are generous in some way.

Rather, I use it to mean that their position ignores the structural issues in the problem being discussed. I use it to mean that they are seeing the problem in terms of individual behaviour rather than social construction. I use it to mean they are missing some important systemic formation, such as class. Usually class.

For example, if someone is complaining of media bias but they are seeing that bias in terms of the individual behaviour of individual journalists, then their approach is liberal.

The liberal limits ideas to individual behaviour. The liberal thinks that in order to free the media from bias, all that is needed is for individuals to behave better, more morally, more fairly. While these aims may in themselves be laudable, they will have limited effect, as the structures will not have been tackled. The liberal's ideas therefore lack rigour. If I call you liberal, I am saying your analysis lacks rigour.

This limiting lack of rigour defines the liberal response to the ills of capitalism for a reason. Liberalism became a political expression of the capitalist class. It offers a lack of rigour because it doesn't want to overturn the privilege of the elite. It limits the debate to a discussion of individual morality, because that way change itself is limited. Liberalism offers individual guilt that change has not come fast enough, but it does not offer real change.

If I call you a liberal, I don't mean it as a compliment.



So that's what I mean by liberal.

An American who is receptive to far right rhetoric however will use it more like they would use "woke". It just means "more left than me".

But the phrase "liberal elite" means something else: it means privileged patricians who belong to a class perceived as being out of touch.

When they look at someone like Harris, they see someone who is wealthy, out of touch, who doesn't listen to them, who talks about things that have no meaning to them, who has skiing holidays in Aspen, and lemon squeezers designed by Phillipe Starke.

This is what they see looking at Harris. This is the image problem the Democrats have.

Put that to one side.

Now I'll explain a bit about what I mean when I say "liberal identity politics". I'm here using liberal the way I describe above. Blind to structure, specifically class, and focused on individualism and individual morality.

I use it in this phrase as a qualifier, because when I just say "identity politics" people are more likely to misunderstand me.

When I'm criticising "liberal identity politics" I'm criticising the idea that an unprivileged black person, say an Uber delivery cyclist, should feel a commonality of interests with someone who has a net worth of about $8 million (as Harris and her husband are said to) simply because they are both black.

It is not the case that Thatcher being prime minister was a good thing for all women. Nor that Patel or Braverman being Home Secretary was good for all British Asians. Nor is it a win for all women that Denise Coates has billions. And so on.

The opposing view is summarised by Fred Hampton:

"We got to face some facts. That the masses are poor, that the masses belong to what you call the lower class, and when I talk about the masses, I'm talking about the white masses, I'm talking about the black masses, and the brown masses, and the yellow masses, too. We've got to face the fact that some people say you fight fire best with fire, but we say you put fire out best with water.

We say you don't fight racism with racism. We're gonna fight racism with solidarity. We say you don't fight capitalism with no black capitalism; you fight capitalism with socialism."

It is not a win for working class black people that there are rich black people. The idea that it is a win is what I call "liberal identity politics". And that view, one cultivated and co-opted by neoliberalism, is one of the routes that ended up with Trump back in the Whitehouse.
 
I wouldn't over-estimate Clinton. He is superficially a skilled orator, but he got lucky in the 90s elections in the shape of a genuine third candidate to split the vote on the right with Perot. And he was an appalling president. He presided over many of the things that have got us to where we are now. Mass incarceration, deregulation, foreign interventions. He was awful.

Absolutely - That’s why I said originally. He got them over the line by some margin, even with the split vote.

However, Trump has amply proven that the electorate still need/heed their demagogues, so that’s what the Democrats need to provide. And an underlying layer of better governance, of course.
 
I mean I don't like Trump, but it was just some business nonsense, they're all at it. The word 'felon' doesn't carry some weight of its own beyond the court case. Screeching 34 x felon over and over again is just hysterical liberal shit. Would you not vote for someone you otherwise approved of just because of a court conviction?

Or being a rapist?
 
Can David Lammy survive as foreign sec? i mean, he's completely correct here but probably ill advised career wise...

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Relitigating all the various ways that the orange nightmare is horrible post facto to his victory seems a bit hollow and pointless tbh. He won even though a significant number of those marking the card for him knew how awful he was. The question is how to move forward from this and turn the tide. The answer I fear is probably years down the line and after a significant amount of suffering and harm happens both within and without the borders of the USA as its currently constituted... I hope that there is enough time available to do so, especially given that the right and far right have had a 45+year head-start on this and I fear we don't have the luxury of that sort of timescale...
 
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