Who will win the 2024 US election?

[littlebabyjesus]

Do you think that there is much difference between American people and British people?

When it comes to race, yes, I think there is a massive difference.

 

[belboid]

Still a lot left to be decided, but given that the GOP have gained one seat and were the incumbent majority, I wouldn't get your hopes up.

They were expected to flip the senate but there were strong hopes the house would flip too, which seems weird, but..,

The House and the Senate are the legislative branch, not part of the executive.

Yes, good point well made

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Reps have already taken the Senate. And they're on course for the House of Reps. +1 so far, so it will be close, but the Reps win.

Senate was tough for the Dems this time around as they were defending more than twice as many seats.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

When it comes to race, yes, I think there is a massive difference.

Just to flesh that out, my experience was more than 30 years ago now, but when I lived in the South in the US, I was initially shocked by the depth of the racial hatred, resentment, and fear I found among many white people there. Small towns and villages remained totally segregated both physically and socially.

It's really nothing like here.

 

[PTK]

I notice that Tulsi Gabard, who was a possible choice for Democratic Party candidate in 2020, joined the Republican Party and came out in support of Trump recently. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, as they say.

 

[Wilf]

is Labour racist and misogynistic? Or is it simply choosing the best person for the job?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That made me laugh more than it should have done. It's been that kind of a day.

 

[cesare]

That's how your recent posts have come across. Screechy.

I think "venting" is a better description.

 

[danny la rouge]

Why is everyone taking this so bloody personally.

Well, you’re quoting people then saying stuff. It’s reasonable for them to assume your statements are in response to their post you’ve just quoted.

People are generally depressed, scared and angry. It’s going to mean some stuff gets said. We can probably write off today to that.

I’m busy this evening but I’ll try to get back to you soon.

Best. X

 

[planetgeli]

I notice that Tulsi Gabard, who was a possible choice for Democratic Party candidate in 2020, joined the Republican Party and came out in support of Trump recently. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, as they say.

Trump was a Democrat once.

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/21/politics/donald-trump-election-democrat/index.html

 

[PTK]

Trump was a Democrat once.

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/21/politics/donald-trump-election-democrat/index.html

I know. Imagine if Tulsi Gabbard had received the nomination in 2020: she would have been running against Trump.

 

[Cid]

I notice that Tulsi Gabard, who was a possible choice for Democratic Party candidate in 2020, joined the Republican Party and came out in support of Trump recently. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, as they say.

Cult member Tusli Gabard.

Science of Identity Foundation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Rompipalle]

Wanting to be financially better off is not inexplicable to most people.

They won’t be better off under Trump. They’re just too far under his canopy of bullshit to realise this.

 

[Rompipalle]

Well, you’re quoting people then saying stuff. It’s reasonable for them to assume your statements are in response to their post you’ve just quoted.

People are generally depressed, scared and angry. It’s going to mean some stuff gets said. We can probably write off today to that.

I’m busy this evening but I’ll try to get back to you soon.

Best. X

Well, when someone quotes my post, I tend to respond to their post in turn, as is the usual manner in any iterative process. It is not accusatory or directed at them personally. Jeezus I don’t even know any of you people, let alone know your world views on any given subject.

What I dislike is the aggressive nature of the exchanges, as if people are simply spoiling for arguments with every post made.

Not once have I suggested that anyone on here is aligned with Trumpian ideology.

I hope that clears things up.

 

[ID47]

Just to flesh that out, my experience was more than 30 years ago now, but when I lived in the South in the US, I was initially shocked by the depth of the racial hatred, resentment, and fear I found among many white people there. Small towns and villages remained totally segregated both physically and socially.

It's really nothing like here.

Never been to the USA and have zero intention of ever visiting but through marriage have three brother in laws and their extended families there all the way from Pensacola to Buffalo. They just don't mix with White people not because they are racist but just because they simply have no concept of mixing outside their community. It's sad and very weird as it's the exact opposite with my other brother in law in the EU and my wife here in the UK.

Can't see a good future for such a nation.

 

[Cid]

Bernie is... annoyed (scuse poor formatting, c&p from Guardian):

Independent senator Sanders blames Democrats for election disaster​

Bernie Sanders, the independent senator and leading progressive voice in Congress, says Democrats’ failure to embrace policies that would help the average American led to the party’s terrible performance in yesterday’s election.

“It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic party which has abandoned working-class people would find that the working class has abandoned them. First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right,” said Sanders, who was re-elected to a fourth term representing Vermont yesterday.

Sanders caucuses with Democrats in the Senate and campaigned for Kamala Harris, but has broken with Joe Biden over his support for Israel, and encouraged him to adopt progressive economic policies.

In his statement, Sanders encouraged Democrats to learn lessons from a debacle that saw Donald Trump defeat Harris, and the GOP regain control of the Senate:

Today, despite strong opposition from a majority of Americans, we continue to spend billions funding the extremist Netanyahu government’s all out war against the Palestinian people which has led to the horrific humanitarian disaster of mass malnutrition and the starvation of thousands of children.

Will the big money interests and well-paid consultants who control the Democratic party learn any real lessons from this disastrous campaign? Will they understand the pain and political alienation that tens of millions of Americans are experiencing? Do they have any ideas as to how we can take on the increasingly powerful oligarchy which has so much economic and political power? Probably not.

In the coming weeks and months those of us concerned about grassroots democracy and economic justice need to have some very serious political discussions.

 

[danny la rouge]

Well, when someone quotes my post, I tend to respond to their post in turn, as is the usual manner in any iterative process. It is not accusatory or directed at them personally. Jeezus I don’t even know any of you people, let alone know your world views on any given subject.

What I dislike is the aggressive nature of the exchanges, as if people are simply spoiling for arguments with every post made.

Not once have I suggested that anyone on here is aligned with Trumpian ideology.

I hope that clears things up.

Hiya, I'm Danny. I'm an anarchist communist. Nice to meet you.

For me, this exchange seemed to begin when you posted a screen grab that started with the sentiment: "Black men voting against a black woman. Unbelievable."

I expressed disagreement with that. I know you didn't compose it. Nevertheless, I wish to note my disagreement, not least because I think it gets to the root of one of the threads that got us here. ("Here" being the re-election of at best a reactionary demagogue, and I would argue, an actual fascist).

Expecting black men to vote for a woman because she is black is literally racism. They voted against a black woman. Unbelievable.

If that was the Democratic strategy: hoping people vote their race, then that was an idiotic strategy. And racist.

We know from elections across Europe, in the UK, in the US, that disenfranchised people are listening to far right rhetoric. We know that. We've seen it.

Should they be? Of course not.

Will it come back to bite them? Of course it will.

But they're desperate, they're angry, they don't trust the liberal establishment, and they aren't in the mood to fall for "more of the same".

Of course we know Trump, Farage, Le Pen, Geert Wilders, et al, are not going to act in the interests of working class people. But there's no offering on the table that disenfranchised people are hearing.

So just repeating what people perceive as the lies of the liberal elite isn't going to cut it.

So what the Democrats have left is: "She's black. You're black. Vote for her".

You might say she's better qualified than Trump. I'd certainly agree she's more polished, less erratic, more lucid. There's a lot I disagree with her on. A lot. But though I'm an extra parliamentary communist, I'd have been tempted to vote for her against Trump in these circumstances. Not as an end, but just because he really is beyond the pale.

I think there's a couple of different points we're talking past each other on.

First, you're not getting the criticism of liberal identity politics. That's OK. Lots of people have a block with that. You'll see it on these boards over the years. But the issue isn't that Harris is a black woman. This issue is people thinking her being a black woman should be enough.

Second, understanding the causes of the rise of the far right isn't the same as thinking the rise of the far right is the correct response to those causes. It is not the correct response. It is, however, the response we are seeing.

If we are to fight it, we need to analyse it correctly.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Never been to the USA and have zero intention of ever visiting but through marriage have three brother in laws and their extended families there all the way from Pensacola to Buffalo. They just don't mix with White people not because they are racist but just because they simply have no concept of mixing outside their community. It's sad and very weird as it's the exact opposite with my other brother in law in the EU and my wife here in the UK.

Can't see a good future for such a nation.

I can't find the exact quote annoyingly, but Kurt Vonnegut Jnr once said something along the lines that one of the most remarkable facts about America is the lack of rancour and bitterness among black Americans given how they have been treated. That was my experience - I would make sure a black person knew I wasn't American as soon as I could, and that made a big difference in the way I was treated because it made a big difference in the attitudes that I would be assumed to have. They didn't automatically hate white people, but they knew full-well that many white people hated them. Me and some other immigrant Brits I was living with at the time made friends with a black neighbour and we were the first white people he'd ever hung out with - he introduced us to some of his friends and called us a 'different breed' to try to reassure them. I would normally be the only white person on the bus. That just wasn't something white Americans did.

My experience of white people in the Southern states was very different. There were exceptions, but as I said, there was both widespread hatred and widespread fear. And a complete lack of compunction about being openly racist around me.

 

[Rimbaud]

Questioning whether people reporting that they feel a level of hardship are really experiencing that level of hardship is to spectacularly miss the point.

If people feel they are experiencing hardship (even if that feeling has been exaggerated) they're more likely to vote for someone claiming to offer change. Why would they vote for continuation of the same?

And if you look at the voting split between college educated and non college educated voters, that tells its own story to some extent

View attachment 449986

Of course, some will say that simply proves that Trump voters are all stupid.

I wonder how much that simply relates to age though? Trump won a majority of the over 45s, an age group far less likely to have gone to university. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of how college graduates voted by age.

 

[brogdale]

Sanders succinctly nails it:

“It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic party which has abandoned working-class people would find that the working class has abandoned them."

 

[Rompipalle]

Hiya, I'm Danny. I'm an anarchist communist. Nice to meet you.

For me, this exchange seemed to begin when you posted a screen grab that started with the sentiment: "Black men voting against a black woman. Unbelievable."

I expressed disagreement with that. I know you didn't compose it. Nevertheless, I wish to note my disagreement, not least because I think it gets to the root of one of the threads that got us here. ("Here" being the re-election of at best a reactionary demagogue, and I would argue, an actual fascist).

Expecting black men to vote for a woman because she is black is literally racism. They voted against a black woman. Unbelievable.

If that was the Democratic strategy: hoping people vote their race, then that was an idiotic strategy. And racist.

We know from elections across Europe, in the UK, in the US, that disenfranchised people are listening to far right rhetoric. We know that. We've seen it.

Should they be? Of course not.

Will it come back to bite them? Of course it will.

But they're desperate, they're angry, they don't trust the liberal establishment, and they aren't in the mood to fall for "more of the same".

Of course we know Trump, Farage, Le Pen, Geert Wilders, et al, are not going to act in the interests of working class people. But there's no offering on the table that disenfranchised people are hearing.

So just repeating what people perceive as the lies of the liberal elite isn't going to cut it.

So what the Democrats have left is: "She's black. You're black. Vote for her".

You might say she's better qualified than Trump. I'd certainly agree she's more polished, less erratic, more lucid. There's a lot I disagree with her on. A lot. But though I'm an extra parliamentary communist, I'd have been tempted to vote for her against Trump in these circumstances. Not as an end, but just because he really is beyond the pale.

I think there's a couple of different points we're talking past each other on.

First, you're not getting the criticism of liberal identity politics. That's OK. Lots of people have a block with that. You'll see it on these boards over the years. But the issue isn't that Harris is a black woman. This issue is people thinking her being a black woman should be enough.

Second, understanding the causes of the rise of the far right isn't the same as thinking the rise of the far right is the correct response to those causes. It is not the correct response. It is, however, the response we are seeing.

If we are to fight it, we need to analyse it correctly.

You're right. I didn't compose it and whilst I agreed with some of it, they were not my words and I could not change them to perfectly reflect my own feelings. But I don't like being lectured to, just because I happen to find that some of the sentiments resonated with me and others.

I'm not swayed by buzz phrases like "liberal elites" and "identity politics". They may sound impressive but they mean little - particularly to the sorts of people who blindly support a waste of skin like Trump because he appeals to their more simplistic instincts.

I get it that people are tired of working their butts off and seeing little reward and seeing being done to improve their lives but do they seriously believe that a self-serving billionaire like Trump gives a flying one about their struggles, when he is more interested in taxing them more but taxing rich bastards very much less? He doesn't give a shit whether the working class populace have healthcare or not - because he does... and that's all that matters.

He's happy to see people struggling to buy the bare necessities for themselves and their families and yet he encourages the same people to fund his vanity politics and self-promotion, instead of paying for it himself. He spouts shite about God to people who are religious fanatics but he lives the most ungodly lifestyle imaginable. He wangs on about the need to protect the unborn child... but is perfectly content to have these same children shot up by a nutcase with an assault rifle, as soon as they are of school age.

That odious creature is a mass of contradictions and yet these clowns who turn up to hoot and holler at him are apparently too dense to see it. I can have no sympathy for them and for the calamitous mess he will create over the next 4 years. If they think things are bad now, they have a lot to anticipate. US

Oh, and JD Vance should be watching his back too. His days will be numbered. Democracy is hanging in the balance... and don't rule out the creation of a Trump dynasty in order to carry on the self-serving gravy train.

 

[krtek a houby]

I have not at any stage thought that you endorsed Trump.

I am just astonished that so many people in the US failed to see him for exactly what he is - or they did and just don't care - weirdly imagining that a 34x convicted felon is somehow a suitable person to lead their country.

They've just poured the contents of a metaphorical slurry pit all over their "great" democratic nation and rendered it a total dumpster fire. That's fine - their country, their choice.

Trump will do untold damage but frankly I no longer care. He's shit all over the United States' mattress and they'll all now just have to lie and wallow in it. I'm just sorry that some of the runny stuff will pour over the edge and onto the rest of the world.

They blew it. F*ck them.

I didn't get what I wanted - so everyone else can just suffer.

What a tantrum.

 

[danny la rouge]

You're right. I didn't compose it and whilst I agreed with some of it, they were not my words and I could not change them to perfectly reflect my own feelings. But I don't like being lectured to, just because I happen to find that some of the sentiments resonated with me and others.

Am I allowed to disagree with a sentiment?

 

[lazythursday]

You're right. I didn't compose it and whilst I agreed with some of it, they were not my words and I could not change them to perfectly reflect my own feelings. But I don't like being lectured to, just because I happen to find that some of the sentiments resonated with me and others.

I'm not swayed by buzz phrases like "liberal elites" and "identity politics". They may sound impressive but they mean little - particularly to the sorts of people who blindly support a waste of skin like Trump because he appeals to their more simplistic instincts.

I get it that people are tired of working their butts off and seeing little reward and seeing being done to improve their lives but do they seriously believe that a self-serving billionaire like Trump gives a flying one about their struggles, when he is more interested in taxing them more but taxing rich bastards very much less? He doesn't give a shit whether the working class populace have healthcare or not - because he does... and that's all that matters.

He's happy to see people struggling to buy the bare necessities for themselves and their families and yet he encourages the same people to fund his vanity politics and self-promotion, instead of paying for it himself. He spouts shite about God to people who are religious fanatics but he lives the most ungodly lifestyle imaginable. He wangs on about the need to protect the unborn child... but is perfectly content to have these same children shot up by a nutcase with an assault rifle, as soon as they are of school age.

That odious creature is a mass of contradictions and yet these clowns who turn up to hoot and holler at him are apparently too dense to see it. I can have no sympathy for them and for the calamitous mess he will create over the next 4 years. If they think things are bad now, they have a lot to anticipate. US

Oh, and JD Vance should be watching his back too. His days will be numbered. Democracy is hanging in the balance... and don't rule out the creation of a Trump dynasty in order to carry on the self-serving gravy train.

You just keep posting the same thing - Trump bad, the people who voted for him stupid. We all know what Trump is. But you seem unwilling to listen to or accept any analysis, any explanation of this calamity that goes beyond simply blaming his voters.

 

[Lord Camomile]

I get it that people are tired of working their butts off and seeing little reward and seeing being done to improve their lives but do they seriously believe that a self-serving billionaire like Trump gives a flying one about their struggles, when he is more interested in taxing them more but taxing rich bastards very much less?

Well, apparently they believe something enough to vote for him. Clearly something he did (or his team, or whoever) worked.

Again, I'm as perplexed as anyone about it, but it happened. I'd just hope someone with more nouse and ability than me is figuring out how, and why, and what can be done about it. Otherwise we're just going to continue standing there looking dumbfounded, like today, like in 2016, like with Brexit, while the world burns around us.

 

[krtek a houby]

Hiya, I'm Danny. I'm an anarchist communist. Nice to meet you.

For me, this exchange seemed to begin when you posted a screen grab that started with the sentiment: "Black men voting against a black woman. Unbelievable."

I expressed disagreement with that. I know you didn't compose it. Nevertheless, I wish to note my disagreement, not least because I think it gets to the root of one of the threads that got us here. ("Here" being the re-election of at best a reactionary demagogue, and I would argue, an actual fascist).

Expecting black men to vote for a woman because she is black is literally racism. They voted against a black woman. Unbelievable.

If that was the Democratic strategy: hoping people vote their race, then that was an idiotic strategy. And racist.

We know from elections across Europe, in the UK, in the US, that disenfranchised people are listening to far right rhetoric. We know that. We've seen it.

Should they be? Of course not.

Will it come back to bite them? Of course it will.

But they're desperate, they're angry, they don't trust the liberal establishment, and they aren't in the mood to fall for "more of the same".

Of course we know Trump, Farage, Le Pen, Geert Wilders, et al, are not going to act in the interests of working class people. But there's no offering on the table that disenfranchised people are hearing.

So just repeating what people perceive as the lies of the liberal elite isn't going to cut it.

So what the Democrats have left is: "She's black. You're black. Vote for her".

You might say she's better qualified than Trump. I'd certainly agree she's more polished, less erratic, more lucid. There's a lot I disagree with her on. A lot. But though I'm an extra parliamentary communist, I'd have been tempted to vote for her against Trump in these circumstances. Not as an end, but just because he really is beyond the pale.

I think there's a couple of different points we're talking past each other on.

First, you're not getting the criticism of liberal identity politics. That's OK. Lots of people have a block with that. You'll see it on these boards over the years. But the issue isn't that Harris is a black woman. This issue is people thinking her being a black woman should be enough.

Second, understanding the causes of the rise of the far right isn't the same as thinking the rise of the far right is the correct response to those causes. It is not the correct response. It is, however, the response we are seeing.

If we are to fight it, we need to analyse it correctly.

At this stage, would just like to say thank you for your patience, danny. It took me a long time to "get" identity politics, but when the penny dropped - it made sense.

It's terrifying what's happened, but hardly surprising. Totally get the frustrations we're seeing... feeling darkly lethargic and depressed tbh. But the fight must go on, despite the immense hurdles ahead.

The fear is in me, though. The fallout from this will not just be confined to the US.

 

[Rompipalle]

You just keep posting the same thing - Trump bad, the people who voted for him stupid. We all know what Trump is. But you seem unwilling to listen to or accept any analysis, any explanation of this calamity that goes beyond simply blaming his voters.

Who else can be held to blame for electing a liar, cheat, insurrectionist, conman, sex offender and convicted criminal to the highest political office in the United States, if not his voters?

Clearly there is no moral compass left in that country, so if they're not to be labelled as collectively stupid, then it surely points to them sharing the same appalling attitudes as he has. I'm not even interested in analysing why they voted for that thing, - the mere fact that they did tells me everything I need to know. To try to objectively analyse or provide reasons for it simply gives it credence.

Like I said already, they bloody deserve him and all the shite he will bring to their doors.

I'm done with it all now. I've had enough. Bugger the lot of them.

 

[Wilf]

Well, apparently they believe something enough to vote for him. Clearly something he did (or his team, or whoever) worked.

Again, I'm as perplexed as anyone about it, but it happened. I'd just hope someone with more nouse and ability than me is figuring out how, and why, and what can be done about it. Otherwise we're just going to continue standing there looking dumbfounded, like today, like in 2016, like with Brexit, while the world burns around us.

Yeah, when it came to the polls, I bounced around as much as anyone, thinking Trump would win a week ago and then seeing straws in the wind for Harris in the last 48 hours. Wrong! But in the medium term, in terms of the campaign, I thought Harris might have enough competence and coherence to become another Democrat who would just about hold onto enough poor or struggling voters to do the job. None of that is getting into the deeper history of neoliberalism and the sense of abandonment felt by working class voters, the substance of the problem. Just felt she might hold it together for a narrow win, while losing the senate.

As well as that deep seated problem and the further rise of populism - along with all that shit that Trump will do - the victory of lying is truly depressing (as discussed on the main Trump thread). Trump's own performance, nothing but lies, but the post truth echo chambers and Musk. It's hard to break through that. One of the things the Democrats and plenty of other 'centre lefts' need to do is just restore a presence in working class communities, need to actually be part of those communities rather than as they are now. Don't see a cat in hell's chance that will happen, or for that matter the likes of Labour will do over here.

 

[Hollis]

Who else can be held to blame for electing a liar, cheat, insurrectionist, conman, sex offender and convicted criminal to the highest political office in the United States, if not his voters?

Clearly there is no moral compass left in that country, so if they're not to be labelled as collectively stupid, then it surely points to them sharing the same appalling attitudes as he has. I'm not even interested in analysing why they voted for that thing, - the mere fact that they did tells me everything I need to know. To try to objectively analyse or provide reasons for it simply gives it credence.

Like I said already, they bloody deserve him and all the shite he will bring to their doors.

I'm done with it all now. I've had enough. Bugger the lot of them.

Along with liberal identity politics, liberal entitlement is another problem... also talking past people and demanding they fit their world view.

This guy sums it up.. not that I'm a particular fan of Aaron Bastani.

 

[vanya]

The Failure of the Democrats

Up until the votes were counted, things were looking positive for the Democrats. According to early voting, demographics that were predispos...

averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com

Trump trump horrible Trump
Nothing quite like him to give you the hump
Trumpety trump trump
Trumpety trump trump
Horrible horrible horrible Trump