Who will win the 2024 US election?

[Plumdaff]

Listening to It Could Happen Here podcast (yes, the title) pointing out that Trump's vote didn't increase significantly from 2020. This is about Democrats not engaging with their vote. Turns out courting Republican voters when there's a Republican to vote for doesn't work out.

Labour got extremely lucky this year. Will they learn this lesson for next time?

 

[Spandex]

Labour got extremely lucky this year. Will they learn this lesson for next time?

No

 

[pbsmooth]

 

[Lord Camomile]

Labour got extremely lucky this year. Will they learn this lesson for next time?

No

Asked and answered.

 

[Nylock]

View attachment 450026

WTF is this idiocy?

 

[pbsmooth]

WTF is this idiocy?

I thought it was a mildly amusing meme on the subject of 'Dems should do our own Jan 6th'. done by someone very much on the Dems side fwiw.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Can David Lammy survive as foreign sec? i mean, he's completely correct here but probably ill advised career wise...

He’ll be fine.

 

[Petcha]

He’ll be fine.

Of course. Trump isn't petty. Or vindictive. And Starmer's a strong, honest leader who will back his team.

 

[scifisam]

Worth reading for anyone who still can't grasp why so many people who aren't necessarily stupid racists voted for Trump

Why Kamala Harris lost: A flawed candidate or doomed campaign?​

Well, no. Not voting for Harris does not automatically equal voting for Trump.

But no, I'm outta here. Generally I keep away from politics on urban anyway. This sort of disingenuous bullshit is part of the problem.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Of course. Trump isn't petty. Or vindictive. And Starmer's a strong, honest leader who will back his team.

Trump doesn’t care, he has a Veep who’s said far worse. This really is a confected storm the Tories are trying to whip up. It’ll go nowhere.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Well, no. Not voting for Harris does not automatically equal voting for Trump.

But no, I'm outta here. Generally I keep away from politics on urban anyway. This sort of disingenuous bullshit is part of the problem.

Looks like about 10m didn’t vote over one issue: Gaza

 

[belboid]

I hope you at least mocked all the nasty nasty losers

Mocked? I had them barred from the pub.

 

[planetgeli]

Looks like about 10m didn’t vote over one issue: Gaza

Can you provide a source for this please?

 

[andysays]

Can you provide a source for this please?

Either one of their anonymous friends who works in politics told them, or else they just pulled it out of their arse.

I know which one I think it is...

 

[Plumdaff]

Can you provide a source for this please?

Harris is currently about 14 million votes down on Biden's 2020 total with three results pending (source; checking the BBC numbers)

Why those millions didn't vote; to be investigated, Gaza will be a reason, I think inflation and cost of living will be a bigger reason though (source; grocery prices in the US and my brain )

 

[andysays]

Well, no. Not voting for Harris does not automatically equal voting for Trump.

But no, I'm outta here. Generally I keep away from politics on urban anyway. This sort of disingenuous bullshit is part of the problem.

Genuinely baffled about what you mean by disingenuous bullshit

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Either one of their anonymous friends who works in politics told them, or else they just pulled it out of their arse.

I know which one I think it is...

This one came from a friend in the CIA.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

We know that significant numbers of people didn't vote or didn't vote for Labour because of Gaza. Probably cost them 3-4 percentage points overall. It would not be surprising at all if that pattern was repeated in the US.

 

[Wilf]

This one came from a friend in the CIA.

The Ramones?

 

[Pickman's model]

This one came from a friend in the CIA.

you can tell a lot about someone from the company they keep

 

[belboid]

We know that significant numbers of people didn't vote or didn't vote for Labour because of Gaza. Probably cost them 3-4 percentage points overall. It would not be surprising at all if that pattern was repeated in the US.

It undoubtedly was. Didn’t do Jill stein much good tho, which rather implies the majority of the 15m who voted for Biden but not Harris were more pissed off with the whole of the last four years, the failure to deliver improved standards of living.

Hopefully Labour will learn something from this. Hopefully.

 

[pbsmooth]

Exit polls suggested Latinos in Pennsylvania amounted to about 5% of the total vote. Trump garnered 42% of that vote, compared to 27% when he ran against Joe Biden in 2020.

Mr Negron, and other Trump supporters in the now majority-Latino city, listed other reasons that their community was drifting towards Trump, including social issues and a perception that their family values now align more with the Republican Party.


The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation.
"Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added. "A lot of us have woken up, in my opinion, from Democratic lies that things have been better. We realised things were better then."

'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump

As well as winning over Hispanic voters, Trump improved his position in some surprising corners.

www.bbc.co.uk

guessing this means some immigrants like the god stuff of Trump and aren't on board with the progressive policies they pin against the Dems in the culture wars.

I look forward to Trump dropping the price of food by 80%...

 

[Elpenor]

This one came from a friend in the CIA.

Codenamed Shallow Throat

 

[Petcha]

Does anybody outside the US on here think this is a good thing? Genuine question?

I've spent some time living/working in the US. On the coasts, which are obvs dem, and stayed as such, because, people are... not fucking idiots.

Also spent time down south with my ex-wife who is from south carolina and yes it's still fully black/white. I couldn't believe it when I was down there, seeing the confederate flag flying over the capitol building. Legally. What a bizarre fucking country. I love the south, don't get me wrong. But I was accepted as I appear white (I'm actually mixed race). They're lovely people, just fucking idiots. Sorry.... southerners... you are. It's so segregated, still. And anyone who has been there would tell you the same.

Fuck America. This doesn't just affect them, it affects us all.

 

[planetgeli]

We know that significant numbers of people didn't vote or didn't vote for Labour because of Gaza. Probably cost them 3-4 percentage points overall. It would not be surprising at all if that pattern was repeated in the US.

Well fwiw I don't think it's as significant as you. America is what, 5x larger? And far less interested in foreign affairs historically than even insular little UK.

It was the economy. Plus a whole bunch of people who were entirely comfortable with voting for a fascist. And swallowing easily digestible lies.

 

[pbsmooth]

It was the economy. Plus a whole bunch of people who were entirely comfortable with voting for a fascist. And swallowing easily digestible lies.

Seems fair to criticise Harris and team for not doing more to set out their plan for change and differentiate from Biden - but as you say, it is quite hard to argue with someone who is prepared to lie and has an entire media industry prepared to agree with him and not call him out. Trump can say a load of crap about coal and egg prices and then Fox and The Right on social media just agree with him.

 

[PR1Berske]

WTF is this idiocy?

Proof, were proof needed, that right wing satire is absolute codswallop.

 

[pbsmooth]

Proof, were proof needed, that right wing satire is absolute codswallop.

It was done by a Gen Z lefty account. Taking the piss out of itself if you like. I fear you’re just showing yourself as old…

 

[Wilf]

Dems undoubtedly lost significant Muslim/Arab/pro-Palestinian voters though, I suppose, they would have risked losing Jewish voters with a stance/policy more critical of Israel. In the entirely cynical world of electoral politics, there was probably a sweet spot in the middle that reduced the losses both ways. But in the world of common decency, they should have opposed the slaughter.

 

[Nylock]

I thought it was a mildly amusing meme on the subject of 'Dems should do our own Jan 6th'. done by someone very much on the Dems side fwiw.

Fair enough. Seems a little derisory, even if they are 'on the same side'...