USA 2024 Election Stats

[Dogsauce]

Major issue for the Dems; the cohort formerly known as "Generation left"...

View attachment 450109

AKA ‘the Rogan effect’.

 

[PTK]

‘It is a little analog’: how the Associated Press calls election winners in the US

AP’s David Scott talks about how the newsroom predicts who won, the ‘red mirage’ and one county’s whiteboard

www.theguardian.com

'As far as you know' isn't very far, is it.

"Officially" is the important word in the orginal question, to which I was responding. AP is not an official body.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Data is pre-election, so apols if it was already posted in the run-up.

 

[Yossarian]

The Republican anti-trans ad campaigns focusing on trans girls playing on youth teams spent $42 million for every trans girl on a youth team in the US

According to data from Ad Impact, the GOP spent roughly $215 million on network TV ads alone calling transgender people a threat to the American way of life

Gillian Branstetter, a spokesperson for the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) said the number of transgender athletes isn't comprehensive, but she's also certain it's a very small portion of the nation's population. Branstetter told Newsweek that Save Women's Sports, an organization advocating for banning transgender athletes from competing in girls' sports, identified only five transgender athletes competing on girls' teams in school sports for grades K through 12.

 

[ska invita]

Poorer voters flocked to Trump and other data points from the election​

FT analysis of this week's election results paint a dire picture for the Democrats

https://archive.ph/UVQQW#selection-1753.0-7725.63

After a deep-dive into the data, here are five takeaways.
(Headline summary)

Democratic support depends on high-income voters​

Immigration probably pushed voters to Trump​

Trump captured the suburbs and cities became less Democratic​

Hispanic-majority areas swung to Trump​

Low turnout among Democrats accentuated the swing towards Trump​

 

[ska invita]

 

[ska invita]

some really interesting stats in this suggesting a significant shift to the left "amongst democrats" (see article for details) whilst also collapsing as the party of the WC

Trump broke the Democrats’ thermostat

The American left was sent spinning in 2016 and is yet to recalibrate

www.ft.com

Some real positives aside from that IMO in regards the possibility to move left but Im too lazy to post comment properly at the mo

 

[redsquirrel]

some really interesting stats in this suggesting a significant shift to the left "amongst democrats" (see article for details) whilst also collapsing as the party of the WC

...

Some real positives aside from that IMO in regards the possibility to move left but Im too lazy to post comment properly at the mo

I'd like to see some error bars on those plots, and there are some questions there (how is the 'median' voter being defined?) but an interesting piece

 

[hitmouse]

If this is accurate:

In Dearborn, Rashida Tlaib Did Nearly Twice as Well as Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris wouldn’t distance herself from the Biden’s support of Israel’s war on Gaza. Rashida Tlaib railed against it — and won the Michigan city.

theintercept.com

"Trump claimed 43 percent of the vote in Dearborn, Michigan, to Kamala Harris’s 36 percent. Jill Stein claimed 15 percent of the vote in the city, where the Green Party had notched less than 1 percent in 2020.

Trump’s margin of victory in Dearborn represents a massive reversal from the 2020 election, when Joe Biden’s won 69 percent to Trump’s 30...

Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a progressive Palestinian American, won 62 percent of the vote in Dearborn compared to Republican candidate James Hooper’s 30 percent. She was easily reelected to a fourth term."

Obviously, Dearborn isn't the whole country, but still.

 

[The39thStep]

some really interesting stats in this suggesting a significant shift to the left "amongst democrats" (see article for details) whilst also collapsing as the party of the WC
View attachment 451290

Trump broke the Democrats’ thermostat

The American left was sent spinning in 2016 and is yet to recalibrate

www.ft.com

Some real positives aside from that IMO in regards the possibility to move left but Im too lazy to post comment properly at the mo

A left without the working class . Ah well , so it goes.

 

[pbsmooth]

some really interesting stats in this suggesting a significant shift to the left "amongst democrats" (see article for details) whilst also collapsing as the party of the WC
View attachment 451290

Trump broke the Democrats’ thermostat

The American left was sent spinning in 2016 and is yet to recalibrate

www.ft.com

Some real positives aside from that IMO in regards the possibility to move left but Im too lazy to post comment properly at the mo

that's one way of looking at it... or, as the article says, the shift is out of line with where most people are. and that isn't necessarily good. certainly not good if you want to win an election.

but it's also kind of the whole 'LibsOfTikTok' way of doing social media: convince people that the opposition - democrats here - hold all these crazy extreme views and that 'hard left' positions are the de facto position of the whole party.

 

[ska invita]

"From 2020 to 2024, Democrats saw a staggering dropoff in support at the presidential level, with some 19 million people who voted for Joe Biden staying home (or not mailing in their ballots) in 2024. Now, a new survey conducted by YouGov suggests Biden’s support for Israel’s unrelenting assault on Gaza played a surprisingly large role in the choice of those previous Biden supporters not to vote. (Read the full poll here.)

The top reason those non-voters cited, above the economy at 24 percent and immigration at 11 percent, was Gaza: a full 29 percent cited the ongoing onslaught as the top reason they didn’t cast a vote in 2024.2

Kamala Harris Paid the Price for Not Breaking With Biden on Gaza, New Poll Shows

Twenty-nine percent of non-voters who supported Biden in 2020 said U.S. support for the genocide was the top reason they sat the 2024 election, according to a survey by YouGov.

www.dropsitenews.com

 

[hitmouse]

Was just looking for this thread to post that but see you've beat me to it. Actual data is here:

IMEU Policy Project Post-Election Polling Shows Gaza Cost Harris Votes — IMEU Policy Project

www.imeupolicyproject.org

Think that dropsitenews article makes quite a cock-up by describing it as a poll of non-voters when actually it was a poll of Biden 2020 voters who voted for someone other than Harris, but this read like good levelheaded analysis to me:

Before firmly demonstrating that Gaza cost Democrats the election, it’s important to keep a handful of caveats in mind. Even if October 7 and the resulting genocide had never happened, it’s fair to assume some number of those non-voters still would not have voted, and would have cited a different top reason for not voting. Citing a top reason for not voting is far different than it being the only reason not to vote.

And because the turnout drop off was smaller in swing states, Gaza may not have been decisive on its own. Whenever surveys confirm views we already hold, or tell us things we want to be true, it’s worth approaching their findings with increased skepticism. Still, even the most biased poll can only manufacture so much of a response. Even if the true numbers aren’t as stark as this survey found, it points in a clear direction: Biden’s ruthless support for Israel’s genocide, and the refusal of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris to break with him, hurt her among voters who stayed home.

A previous survey, taken during the election by YouGov and also sponsored by Institute for Middle East Understanding Policy Project, found strong evidence that Harris would be significantly boosted by breaking with Biden on Gaza and applying real pressure on Israel. But Harris chose not to do so.

Even more glaring now in light of the ceasefire.

 

[The39thStep]

Was just looking for this thread to post that but see you've beat me to it. Actual data is here:

IMEU Policy Project Post-Election Polling Shows Gaza Cost Harris Votes — IMEU Policy Project

www.imeupolicyproject.org

Think that dropsitenews article makes quite a cock-up by describing it as a poll of non-voters when actually it was a poll of Biden 2020 voters who voted for someone other than Harris, but this read like good levelheaded analysis to me:

Even more glaring now in light of the ceasefire.

Now that the scale of Democrat's role in prolonging the genocide is beginning to publicly unfold it makes it even more unsettling that some posters on here argued that those concerned about the genocide Americans should still have voted for Harris.