Who will win the 2024 US election?

[Protag]

Why is this guy so fucking stupid:

 

[Rompipalle]

I’m sorry if you think I’ve been supporting a vote for Trump. I haven’t.

One thing that a black man voting for Trump probably shares with him is that they’re both reactionary.

He may be voting Trump at least partly for the misogyny he approves of in Trump. He won’t, therefore, want a woman as president. Especially not a privileged one. And articulate? I’m pretty sure he won’t like that at all.

How did we get here? One of the routes was, I’m sorry to say, liberal identity politics.

I have not at any stage thought that you endorsed Trump.

I am just astonished that so many people in the US failed to see him for exactly what he is - or they did and just don't care - weirdly imagining that a 34x convicted felon is somehow a suitable person to lead their country.

They've just poured the contents of a metaphorical slurry pit all over their "great" democratic nation and rendered it a total dumpster fire. That's fine - their country, their choice.

Trump will do untold damage but frankly I no longer care. He's shit all over the United States' mattress and they'll all now just have to lie and wallow in it. I'm just sorry that some of the runny stuff will pour over the edge and onto the rest of the world.

They blew it. F*ck them.

 

[Wilf]

So, there's absolutely no valid reason to vote for him if people want change, is there?

He's a self-serving narcissist who will do nothing to benefit any group - whether they are grouped by by gender, race, religion or any combination of these (or other) factors. He is not a man of the people; he is just yet another rich, white bloke, like all the previous US Presidents have been - with one highly notable exception.

To my mind, that's just retaining the status quo - something that many appear to believe is what is being rejected in voting for him. Actual change would have been the election of a strong, educated woman from a minority ethnic background.

Apart from it actually being an educated minority woman in the White House, what would the actual change be? How would American be different than it is now?

 

[andysays]

We need to take these things with a very large pinch of salt as it is relaying on people self-reporting their "level of hardship" and knowing the cause of it.

Questioning whether people reporting that they feel a level of hardship are really experiencing that level of hardship is to spectacularly miss the point.

If people feel they are experiencing hardship (even if that feeling has been exaggerated) they're more likely to vote for someone claiming to offer change. Why would they vote for continuation of the same?

And if you look at the voting split between college educated and non college educated voters, that tells its own story to some extent



Of course, some will say that simply proves that Trump voters are all stupid.

 

[Wilf]

I am just astonished that so many people in the US failed to see him for exactly what he is - or they did and just don't care - weirdly imagining that a 34x convicted felon is somehow a suitable person to lead their country.

Do you not have any thoughts on the circumstances that might have lead to that? Sometimes democracies do see people voting for regimes that are against what observers - you and me in this moment - might think of as their material best interests.

 

[Idris2002]

....the rest of the century is looking a lot worse

I'm sorry I never had kids . . . but I tell myself that it's for the best (telling myself that doesn't help, though!)

 

[Idris2002]

Looking at Elon's Bollocks Machine, the hardcore Dems are already saying that something smells fishy about this whole business. Links to a man on a grassy knoll can only be a matter of time.

 

[danny la rouge]

Trump will do untold damage but frankly I no longer care.

He will, but I do care. And I care that his climate change denial alone will have serious effects on the rest of us.

To say nothing of his romanticism of violence, his promotion of a particular view of masculinity (all that weird stuff about a dead golfer having a big dick?), and his outlandish comments about what should happen to Democrat voters. That shit will affect us. No doubt about it.

 

[Hollis]

Interesting shift in vote patterns by income..

 

[cesare]

Carter

Didn't start any wars. He did preside over a period in which the US was training death squads in Latin America, though.

Trump didn't start any wars either, or did he?

 

[emanymton]

Questioning whether people reporting that they feel a level of hardship are really experiencing that level of hardship is to spectacularly miss the point.

If people feel they are experiencing hardship (even if that feeling has been exaggerated) they're more likely to vote for someone claiming to offer change. Why would they vote for continuation of the same?

And if you look at the voting split between college educated and non college educated voters, that tells its own story to some extent

View attachment 449986

Of course, some will say that simply proves that Trump voters are all stupid.

Well the post I was replying to said "I very much doubt that's upper-middle class America". But it absolutely can be as hardship is subjective and relative.

For some people hardship is not being able to feed their kids for others it is having a cheaper new car this year. People self reporting their level of hardship tells us nothing about their actual economic circumstances, which the post I was replying to made a direct reference to.

 

[cesare]

Looking at Elon's Bollocks Machine, the hardcore Dems are already saying that something smells fishy about this whole business. Links to a man on a grassy knoll can only be a matter of time.

Maybe it's their turn for an insurrection

 

[Rompipalle]

Apart from it actually being an educated minority woman in the White House, what would the actual change be? How would American be different than it is now?

Well, that would depend on what she did when she got there.

As it is, we'll never know that. It's just going to be Round 2 of the Donald Trump show.

Like I say, I no longer care.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

How did we get here? One of the routes was, I’m sorry to say, liberal identity politics

Absolutely, yes.

Plus it's also one of the major explanations for some of the disorientation that some people are now experiencing given the outturn data and some of the realignment.

 

[Rompipalle]

He will, but I do care. And I care that his climate change denial alone will have serious effects on the rest of us.

To say nothing of his romanticism of violence, his promotion of a particular view of masculinity (all that weird stuff about a dead golfer having a big dick?), and his outlandish comments about what should happen to Democrat voters. That shit will affect us. No doubt about it.

Well, as there's nothing any of us here can do about it, I'm not prepared to waste time or stress myself out even thinking about it.

I despise that foul, rancid sack of shit with every ounce of my being but he's won now... and there's f*ck all any of us can do about it.

I don't generally wish slow painful death on anyone but in this isolated case, I'd consider making an exception. He deserves it. He's not even worth wasting a bullet on, as it would just make him a martyr... and he would love the idea of that.

 

[andysays]

Well the post I was replying to said "I very much doubt that's upper-middle class America". But it absolutely can be as hardship is subjective and relative.

For some people hardship is not being able to feed their kids for others it is having a cheaper new car this year. People self reporting their level of hardship tells us nothing about their actual economic circumstances, which the post I was replying to made a direct reference to.

I very much doubt it's all upper middle class America too, and while I agree that hardship is subjective and relative, people are largely motivated by their feelings of hardship, whether or not that hardship meets some objective standard.

 

[andysays]

Apart from it actually being an educated minority woman in the White House, what would the actual change be? How would American be different than it is now?

Maybe it's worth asking what was the actual change from eight years of having an educated minority man in the White House?

Is America significantly different now that it would have been if John McCain had won in 2008?

 

[Leighsw2]

Interesting shift in vote patterns by income..

View attachment 449988

Yes, very interesting. See also this for the UK comparison.....

 

[Protag]

Who needs Aristotle when you have Bill Hicks. Simples

 

[Wilf]

Well, that would depend on what she did when she got there.

As it is, we'll never know that. It's just going to be Round 2 of the Donald Trump show.

Like I say, I no longer care.

To be fair, I suspect you do care, as do the vast majority of people on here. A Trump presidency will be 'worse' than a Harris presidency, certainly, but I'd find nothing to rejoice about with Harris as President. She's part of the problem, the people who have brought us to this point over several decades. And understanding that is at the heart of ever moving on from this shitshow. Not blaming the media, Musk and the rest - though they are part of the story - or calling the voters thick. People decide their vote on a variety of levels, very much including their experiences of life under successive neo-liberal regimes. It's those experiences (and causes thereof) that are the issue.

 

[Leighsw2]

Questioning whether people reporting that they feel a level of hardship are really experiencing that level of hardship is to spectacularly miss the point.

If people feel they are experiencing hardship (even if that feeling has been exaggerated) they're more likely to vote for someone claiming to offer change. Why would they vote for continuation of the same?

And if you look at the voting split between college educated and non college educated voters, that tells its own story to some extent

View attachment 449986

Of course, some will say that simply proves that Trump voters are all stupid.

Quite agree. Can't really understand why so many liberals have ended up lecturing people who can scarcely afford to pay the rent or feed the kids that they're making it up and don't really understand that the economy is fine because GDP is rising. However, this stuff is absolutely grist to the mill for the Trumps and Farages of this world.

 

[Ax^]

To be fair, I suspect you do care, as do the vast majority of people on here. A Trump presidency will be 'worse' than a Harris presidency, certainly, but I'd find nothing to rejoice about with Harris as President. She's part of the problem, the people who have brought us to this point over several decades. And understanding that is at the heart of ever moving on from this shitshow. Not blaming the media, Musk and the rest - though they are part of the story - or calling the voters thick. People decide their vote on a variety of levels, very much including their experiences of life under successive neo-liberal regimes. It's those experiences (and causes thereof) that are the issue.

hmm i don't think most voter thought as much about life under successive neo-liberal regimes as otherwise vote for Business man who is just Neo-Liberalism without the sugar coating and lies

the vote for Trump as they have less money in their pocket and that the main concern.. the Economy was voted for .. not Democracy..

they take a fucking Nazi prick as long as they got money in the back pocket.. people are that shit


Edit to add ** happy thoughts Ax^ Happy Thoughts**

 

[planetgeli]

Imagine a boot stamping on a human face...forever

 

[Rompipalle]

To be fair, I suspect you do care, as do the vast majority of people on here. A Trump presidency will be 'worse' than a Harris presidency, certainly, but I'd find nothing to rejoice about with Harris as President. She's part of the problem, the people who have brought us to this point over several decades. And understanding that is at the heart of ever moving on from this shitshow. Not blaming the media, Musk and the rest - though they are part of the story - or calling the voters thick. People decide their vote on a variety of levels, very much including their experiences of life under successive neo-liberal regimes. It's those experiences (and causes thereof) that are the issue.

Right then - what is the answer? If the idea of a woman - or indeed a black woman - as President is unpalatable due to this notion of identity politics being to blame - for what exactly I am not sure.... then what is the solution?

I can't really see that an endless succession of ageing, wealthy, right-wing white men occupying the White House is truly the answer and yet this is what is placed there almost every time.

Why should there not be a woman, or a Muslim, or a Jew, or a Hispanic, or a trans-man as President?

 

[weltweit]

Kinell Trump wins .. OMFG - American voters?

 

[maomao]

If the idea of a woman - or indeed a black woman - as President is unpalatable due to this notion of identity politics being to blame - for what exactly I am not sure.... then what is the solution?

No-one has suggested that there's anything at all unpalatable in a black woman being president.

 

[Spymaster]

Why should there not be a woman, or a Muslim, or a Jew, or a Hispanic, or a trans-man as President?

You're not listening to what people are telling you.

Nobody is saying that there should not be any of those.

 

[Spymaster]

Kinell Trump wins .. OMFG - American voters?

Have you just found out?

 

[Leighsw2]

I agree with Aaron Bastani here (not something I always do!) This was pretty much the first thing I heard when I turned on TV this morning and I thought this was a hell of a lot more cogent explanation for Trump's victory than anything I've heard from liberal commentators.

 

[danny la rouge]

Right then - what is the answer? If the idea of a woman - or indeed a black woman - as President is unpalatable due to this notion of identity politics being to blame - for what exactly I am not sure.... then what is the solution?

To blame for the division of society into a plurality of competing identities, with these identities all being cross class alliances. So that black people and women are supposed to cheer Kemi Badenoch’s place at the head of the Tory party. Even if they’re unemployed, a cleaner, or a gig economy delivery person.

Why should there not be a woman, or a Muslim, or a Jew, or a Hispanic, or a trans-man as President?

No reason. But I wouldn’t vote for a reactionary trans man just out of trans solidarity. That’s the point.