Who will win the 2024 US election?

[Yuwipi Woman]

All my love and solidarity to petee, Yuwipi Woman and other friends in the USA. Stay strong for the next four difficult years.

I can't see much hope for the US at this point. The Republicans can do pretty much what they want. They have a majority in the Senate, the House, governorships, and the Supreme Court. What opposition is left will have a difficult time of it. They can enact Project 2025 in full if they want. The first thing they will do is to repeal Obamacare. Then, they'll impose a nationwide abortion ban. They'll go after migrants. Before they separated families. What they have planned will make that look humane. After they do that, they'll go after Social Security, Medicare, etc. I know its selfish to focus on myself, but I suspect that I'll be without health insurance about a year from now. I'm nearing Social Security age, and I'll probably have to find a way to keep working regardless of what happens with my health if they dismantle Social Security. The only comfort I have is that millions of people will be in the same boat and many of them will have voted for it.

 

[andysays]

I don't see how anyone can say for certain today how particular "ethnic" groups voted in the US Presidential election. There was a Republican woman on Radio 4 this morning saying that in one place a certain percentage of Hispanics [edit to correct typo] voted for Trump. She cannot possibly know that.

Exit polls

 

[Rompipalle]

I mean, I think you’re missing a very important part of the picture if you say that. It’s a part that I’ve long argued liberal identity politics misses.

Exactly what do you imagine that Trump and your average working/middle-class black American man have in common with each other?

 

[Riklet]

It's a pretty simple explanation isn't it, as us socialists should know. Biden has been awful for the working class (perceived and arguably too in reality) and people dont see their interests aligning with his economic strategy. And Harris hasn't represented any kind of change, just continuity. Corporations getting the money, war on multiple fronts and environmental bullshit in the form of electric cars and green investment aimed at favouring the rich.

And Trump knew overall he just had to squeek it in about 8 states and he would win it. We can use identity politics to analyse this as much as we want but as ever it's class interests that make the biggest difference.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Exactly what do you imagine that Trump and your average working/middle-class black American man have in common with each other?

Neither has been running the country these past four years..?

 

[PTK]

It's a pretty simple explanation isn't it, as us socialists should know. Biden has been awful for the working class (perceived and arguably too in reality) and people dont see their interests aligning with his economic strategy. And Harris hasn't represented any kind of change, just continuity. Corporations getting the money, war on multiple fronts and environmental bullshit in the form of electric cars and green investment aimed at favouring the rich.

And Trump knew overall he just had to squeek it in about 8 states and he would win it. We can use identity politics to analyse this as much as we want but as ever it's class interests that make the biggest difference.

What has Biden done that was so bad?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Every Trump rally, every single one he asked, "Do you feel better or worse off than two years ago?" - He picked 2 years ago as that's when Covid ended and prices all over the world have risen since then.

 

[Rompipalle]

Neither has been running the country these past four years..?

It was being run along far better lines than the previous 4 years, that's for sure.

 

[Rompipalle]

It's a pretty simple explanation isn't it, as us socialists should know. Biden has been awful for the working class (perceived and arguably too in reality) and people dont see their interests aligning with his economic strategy. And Harris hasn't represented any kind of change, just continuity. Corporations getting the money, war on multiple fronts and environmental bullshit in the form of electric cars and green investment aimed at favouring the rich.

And Trump knew overall he just had to squeek it in about 8 states and he would win it. We can use identity politics to analyse this as much as we want but as ever it's class interests that make the biggest difference.

Trump will do nothing for the working class in the USA - just demand that they pay more and get less.

 

[Rob Ray]

What has Biden done that was so bad?

It's more what he/Harris haven't done. A slightly better GDP and slowed inflation after a big jump is not the same thing as normal people feeling economically better off, and they have zero answers to the ongoing expansion of rentier/automated capitalism. Trump doesn't either of course, but he pretends to have some (curb migration, roll back red tape) and has the (rather stupid) historic conceit that Republicans are "better with the economy" to lean on.

 

[Rompipalle]

 

[tim]

What has Biden done that was so bad?

What has Biden done?

 

[Protag]

Owen Jones' analysis isn't too bad:

I’ve been on the road speaking to the US right. Trump’s victory was not a surprise | Owen Jones

The voters I spent time with were energised by the president-elect’s messages. By contrast, Harris had no clear vision and no shared rage at the state of the country, says Guardian columnist Owen Jones

www.theguardian.com

And even if you are a Democrat "believer", surely a better candidate than Harris can be found. Otherwise the party is screwed.

 

[Ax^]

oh fuck off Owen

 

[danny la rouge]

Exactly what do you imagine that Trump and your average working/middle-class black American man have in common with each other?

Why are you asking? That’s not something I’m arguing.

 

[Protag]

Norman Finkelstein's analysis is deadly