Who will win the 2024 US election?

[Yuwipi Woman]

All my love and solidarity to petee, Yuwipi Woman and other friends in the USA. Stay strong for the next four difficult years.

I can't see much hope for the US at this point. The Republicans can do pretty much what they want. They have a majority in the Senate, the House, governorships, and the Supreme Court. What opposition is left will have a difficult time of it. They can enact Project 2025 in full if they want. The first thing they will do is to repeal Obamacare. Then, they'll impose a nationwide abortion ban. They'll go after migrants. Before they separated families. What they have planned will make that look humane. After they do that, they'll go after Social Security, Medicare, etc. I know its selfish to focus on myself, but I suspect that I'll be without health insurance about a year from now. I'm nearing Social Security age, and I'll probably have to find a way to keep working regardless of what happens with my health if they dismantle Social Security. The only comfort I have is that millions of people will be in the same boat and many of them will have voted for it.

 

[andysays]

I don't see how anyone can say for certain today how particular "ethnic" groups voted in the US Presidential election. There was a Republican woman on Radio 4 this morning saying that in one place a certain percentage of Hispanics [edit to correct typo] voted for Trump. She cannot possibly know that.

Exit polls

 

[Rompipalle]

I mean, I think you’re missing a very important part of the picture if you say that. It’s a part that I’ve long argued liberal identity politics misses.

Exactly what do you imagine that Trump and your average working/middle-class black American man have in common with each other?

 

[Riklet]

It's a pretty simple explanation isn't it, as us socialists should know. Biden has been awful for the working class (perceived and arguably too in reality) and people dont see their interests aligning with his economic strategy. And Harris hasn't represented any kind of change, just continuity. Corporations getting the money, war on multiple fronts and environmental bullshit in the form of electric cars and green investment aimed at favouring the rich.

And Trump knew overall he just had to squeek it in about 8 states and he would win it. We can use identity politics to analyse this as much as we want but as ever it's class interests that make the biggest difference.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Exactly what do you imagine that Trump and your average working/middle-class black American man have in common with each other?

Neither has been running the country these past four years..?

 

[PTK]

It's a pretty simple explanation isn't it, as us socialists should know. Biden has been awful for the working class (perceived and arguably too in reality) and people dont see their interests aligning with his economic strategy. And Harris hasn't represented any kind of change, just continuity. Corporations getting the money, war on multiple fronts and environmental bullshit in the form of electric cars and green investment aimed at favouring the rich.

And Trump knew overall he just had to squeek it in about 8 states and he would win it. We can use identity politics to analyse this as much as we want but as ever it's class interests that make the biggest difference.

What has Biden done that was so bad?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Every Trump rally, every single one he asked, "Do you feel better or worse off than two years ago?" - He picked 2 years ago as that's when Covid ended and prices all over the world have risen since then.

 

[Rompipalle]

Neither has been running the country these past four years..?

It was being run along far better lines than the previous 4 years, that's for sure.

 

[Rompipalle]

It's a pretty simple explanation isn't it, as us socialists should know. Biden has been awful for the working class (perceived and arguably too in reality) and people dont see their interests aligning with his economic strategy. And Harris hasn't represented any kind of change, just continuity. Corporations getting the money, war on multiple fronts and environmental bullshit in the form of electric cars and green investment aimed at favouring the rich.

And Trump knew overall he just had to squeek it in about 8 states and he would win it. We can use identity politics to analyse this as much as we want but as ever it's class interests that make the biggest difference.

Trump will do nothing for the working class in the USA - just demand that they pay more and get less.

 

[Rob Ray]

What has Biden done that was so bad?

It's more what he/Harris haven't done. A slightly better GDP and slowed inflation after a big jump is not the same thing as normal people feeling economically better off, and they have zero answers to the ongoing expansion of rentier/automated capitalism. Trump doesn't either of course, but he pretends to have some (curb migration, roll back red tape) and has the (rather stupid) historic conceit that Republicans are "better with the economy" to lean on.

 

[Rompipalle]

 

[tim]

What has Biden done that was so bad?

What has Biden done?

 

[Protag]

Owen Jones' analysis isn't too bad:

I’ve been on the road speaking to the US right. Trump’s victory was not a surprise | Owen Jones

The voters I spent time with were energised by the president-elect’s messages. By contrast, Harris had no clear vision and no shared rage at the state of the country, says Guardian columnist Owen Jones

www.theguardian.com

And even if you are a Democrat "believer", surely a better candidate than Harris can be found. Otherwise the party is screwed.

 

[Ax^]

oh fuck off Owen

 

[danny la rouge]

Exactly what do you imagine that Trump and your average working/middle-class black American man have in common with each other?

Why are you asking? That’s not something I’m arguing.

 

[Protag]

Norman Finkelstein's analysis is deadly

 

[Idris2002]

A last bit of depression before I abandon this thread for a while: the Democrats lost the fucking popular vote.

And it served them right.

 

[krtek a houby]

Exactly what do you imagine that Trump and your average working/middle-class black American man have in common with each other?

At a guess, probably a shared dislike of patronising liberals who think POC should only vote for liberal approved parties?

 

[Rompipalle]

Why are you asking? That’s not something I’m arguing.

So, there's absolutely no valid reason to vote for him if people want change, is there?

He's a self-serving narcissist who will do nothing to benefit any group - whether they are grouped by by gender, race, religion or any combination of these (or other) factors. He is not a man of the people; he is just yet another rich, white bloke, like all the previous US Presidents have been - with one highly notable exception.

To my mind, that's just retaining the status quo - something that many appear to believe is what is being rejected in voting for him. Actual change would have been the election of a strong, educated woman from a minority ethnic background.

 

[krtek a houby]

So, there's absolutely no valid reason to vote for him if people want change, is there?

He's a self-serving narcissist who will do nothing to benefit any group - whether they are grouped by by gender, race, religion or any combination of these (or other) factors. He is not a man of the people; he is just yet another rich, white bloke, like all the previous US Presidents have been - with one highly notable exception.

To my mind, that's just retaining the status quo - something that many appear to believe is what is being rejected in voting for him. Actual change would have been the election of a strong, educated woman from a minority ethnic background.

Harris is the status quo, ffs

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Actual change would have been the election of a strong, educated woman from a minority ethnic background.

Let's all get behind Kemi for the next election!!!

Not meaning to single you out particularly, but this kind of empty identity politics is part of the problem, not the solution.

 

[Rompipalle]

Let's all get behind Kemi for the next election!!!

Not meaning to single you out particularly, but this kind of empty identity politics is part of the problem, not the solution.

So, should we all just be expected to only ever vote for rich white men, in order not to be accused of engaging in "identity politics". Kamala Harris herself chose not to focus on her sex or her ethnicity during her campaign, but it's very apparent that Trump and the electorate very much did.

Kamala Harris was always a better and more capable candidate than Trump - regardless of her sex or ethnicity - but the people of the US just did what they always do and pretended that they wanted change.

In a way though they have voted for change - for the very first time, they've decided to elect an obnoxious, corrupt, loathsome, convicted criminal to lead their country... so there's that, I suppose.

Kemi Badenoch is just a terrible person altogether. It has bugger all to do with her sex or ethnicity.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It has bugger all to do with her sex or ethnicity.

Exactly this. About every candidate ever. What do they stand for, which interests will they serve, in whose pocket are they? These are the relevant questions about any candidate.

Harris being elected didn't represent positive change in and of itself. I'd have thought we in Britain would understand that better than most. This country first elected a strong, capable, highly educated woman 45 years ago.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

So, should we all just be expected to only ever vote for rich white men, in order not to be accused of engaging in "identity politics". Kamala Harris herself chose not to focus on her sex or her ethnicity during her campaign, but it's very apparent that Trump and the electorate very much did.

This is ridiculous. Nobody has said that or anything remotely like it.

Kamala Harris was always a better and more capable candidate than Trump - regardless of her sex or ethnicity - but the people of the US just did what they always do and pretended that they wanted change.

I felt both candidates were awful. Neither offered a coherent programme for adressing the most pressing issues for millions of voters: how to make ends meet, or a programme that would reverse decline. As such it came down to change v the status quo in many voters minds.

In a way though they have voted for change - for the very first time, they've decided to elect an obnoxious, corrupt, loathsome, convicted criminal to lead their country... so there's that, I suppose.

Kemi Badenoch is just a terrible person altogether. It has bugger all to do with her sex or ethnicity.

if you mean Trump, they have voted for him twice. Then there is Bush (Sr and Jr), and Reagan, and Nixon....the list goes on.

 

[Leighsw2]

In an earlier CNN exit poll, 75% of respondents (nationally) said they had suffered 'severe' or 'moderate' hardship as a consequence of inflation - there's the Democrat's problem right there.

I posted this at 12.28am last night - as soon as I saw this poll, I thought the game was up for the Democrats. Here's some more detail, it's even more damning for the Dems.



It certainly shows a correlation between experiencing hardship and voting Trump and I very much doubt that's upper-middle class America.

 

[emanymton]

I posted this at 12.28am last night - as soon as I saw this poll, I thought the game was up for the Democrats. Here's some more detail, it's even more damning for the Dems.

View attachment 449983

It certainly shows a correlation between experiencing hardship and voting Trump and I very much doubt that's upper-middle class America.

We need to take these things with a very large pinch of salt as it is relaying on people self-reporting their "level of hardship" and knowing the cause of it.

 

[cesare]

Has the US ever had a decent President ( yes, I know, a matter of degree)?

 

[Rompipalle]

This is ridiculous. Nobody has said that or anything remotely like it.



I felt both candidates were awful. Neither offered a coherent programme for adressing the most pressing issues for millions of voters: how to make ends meet, or a programme that would reverse decline. As such it came down to change v the status quo in many voters minds.



if you mean Trump, they have voted for him twice. Then there is Bush (Sr and Jr), and Reagan, and Nixon....the list goes on.

So they don't want change at all then. They just want more of the same every time.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Has the US ever had a decent President ( yes, I know, a matter of degree)?

Carter?

Didn't start any wars. He did preside over a period in which the US was training death squads in Latin America, though.

 

[danny la rouge]

So, there's absolutely no valid reason to vote for him if people want change, is there?

He's a self-serving narcissist who will do nothing to benefit any group - whether they are grouped by by gender, race, religion or any combination of these (or other) factors. He is not a man of the people; he is just yet another rich, white bloke, like all the previous US Presidents have been - with one highly notable exception.

To my mind, that's just retaining the status quo - something that many appear to believe is what is being rejected in voting for him. Actual change would have been the election of a strong, educated woman from a minority ethnic background.

I’m sorry if you think I’ve been supporting a vote for Trump. I haven’t.

One thing that a black man voting for Trump probably shares with him is that they’re both reactionary.

He may be voting Trump at least partly for the misogyny he approves of in Trump. He won’t, therefore, want a woman as president. Especially not a privileged one. And articulate? I’m pretty sure he won’t like that at all.

How did we get here? One of the routes was, I’m sorry to say, liberal identity politics.