Who will win the 2024 US election?
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I have
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
HTF did I miss that? (Any comments referencing anno domini will be met with a vituperative barrage.
).
Yossarian
⏭️
Some of the betting activity sounds a bit sketchy
Over all, Polymarket has accumulated more than two billion dollars of bets on the election, in part because, beginning around June, an account called Fredi9999 began plowing money into the Trump side. In August and September, several other accounts seemingly connected to Fredi9999 joined in, eventually amassing more than forty-three million dollars in pro-Trump and pro-Republican bets, according to Bloomberg, and driving the swell in Trump’s price.
The Trump bump on Polymarket, in turn, has become a point of discussion in the election itself. Outlets including Bloomberg and the Financial Times have habitually cited Polymarket numbers along with polling results in their analyses of which way the election is heading. On October 6th, Elon Musk posted on X that Polymarket is “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” Trump name-checked the platform during a rally speech in Michigan, on October 18th, saying, of his percentage there, “I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means we’re doing pretty well.” For those whose job it is to study the election, the question is whether the enthusiasm of a relatively small number of crypto-savvy bettors—Polymarket has roughly a hundred and fifty thousand active accounts as of October—is actually in any way indicative of reality, or whether the bets might constitute a form of manipulation, astroturfing momentum for Trump.
Over all, Polymarket has accumulated more than two billion dollars of bets on the election, in part because, beginning around June, an account called Fredi9999 began plowing money into the Trump side. In August and September, several other accounts seemingly connected to Fredi9999 joined in, eventually amassing more than forty-three million dollars in pro-Trump and pro-Republican bets, according to Bloomberg, and driving the swell in Trump’s price.
The Trump bump on Polymarket, in turn, has become a point of discussion in the election itself. Outlets including Bloomberg and the Financial Times have habitually cited Polymarket numbers along with polling results in their analyses of which way the election is heading. On October 6th, Elon Musk posted on X that Polymarket is “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” Trump name-checked the platform during a rally speech in Michigan, on October 18th, saying, of his percentage there, “I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means we’re doing pretty well.” For those whose job it is to study the election, the question is whether the enthusiasm of a relatively small number of crypto-savvy bettors—Polymarket has roughly a hundred and fifty thousand active accounts as of October—is actually in any way indicative of reality, or whether the bets might constitute a form of manipulation, astroturfing momentum for Trump.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I think we've been looking at different polls then. I'm too lazy to dredge them up, but the usual mix is something like 'X is ahead in one of the 7 swing states, Y in 2, the rest too close to call', rinse and repeat. Pretty much all of them in too close to call/margin for error territory.
Actually, go on, here's the BBC tracker showing Trump in a fairly strong position:
US election polls tracker 2024: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?
An in-depth look at the polls and what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the White House.
www.bbc.co.uk
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
yeah - all betting tells you is what people are betting on - the bookies base thier odds on that rather than some insight into the campaigns. So- whilst it can prove an accurate guide - it is also prey to other factors that could skew the odds. THink remain were favourites to win the brexit referendum? So its definintely not an infallibel guide.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
I think we've been looking at different polls then. I'm too lazy to dredge them up, but the usual mix is something like 'X is ahead in one of the 7 swing states, Y in 2, the rest too close to call', rinse and repeat. Pretty much all of them in too close to call/margin for error territory.
Actually, go on, here's the BBC tracker showing Trump in a fairly strong position:
US election polls tracker 2024: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?
An in-depth look at the polls and what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the White House.www.bbc.co.uk
Im at the stage of hoping their is some subterreanean stuff going on that is not being picked up by the polls. Becasue surely there cant be that many voters who are happy to vote for that sack of shit? Surely ....
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...0.o7GdF4j08UnetI5E9jZXH4Fv9TJcRn3Jga1qmfaByMQ
That'll help his terrible ratings among women.
That'll help his terrible ratings among women.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yes, we've got to a point where Trump's supporters think that accusations against him are, by definition, wrong. Or are things that fall into a empty storage box in the brain rather than sitting on a balance sheet of reasons for and against voting Trump. And there are decades of mistrust and feeling abandoned by elites - the media, politicians, business - that have created this situation.
'How could it be possible to elect a rapist, lying, absurdity like Trump? What conditions would you need in place for this to happen?' Well, these circumstances.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Elites like business and politicians? Trump's both of those. And he has or had some media things too...
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Absolutely. That's the sickener in all this, he's the absolute embodiment of everything people should hate.
Yossarian
⏭️
Apparently this Polymarket platform lets people cash out before the election, maybe there's some money to be made from optimistic Trump supporters
"Let's take the hypothetical assumption that it is a genuine plan to manipulate the market, right?" Krishnamurty said. "You cash out if you want. So there's really no risk."
"One thing is that Polymarket, it's not a bet for an outcome. You don't have to wait until election night, so you can add or move the money whenever you want based on the price increase," he said.
Yossarian
⏭️
Holy shit - before Carlson shared his fantasies, I didn't think it could get much worse than Elon Musk's "skipping around like a dipshit"
"Dad is pissed. … And when dad gets home, you know what he says? ‘You’ve been a bad girl. You’ve been a bad little girl, and you’re getting a vigorous spanking right now.’ And no, it’s not going to hurt me more than it hurts you,’” Tucker added. “‘No, it’s not. I’m not going to lie. It’s going to hurt you a lot more than it hurts me. And you earned this. You’re getting a vigorous spanking because you’ve been a bad girl, and it has to be this way."
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
He'll get a post in the new Trump administration
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
From the graun
Carlson certainly isn’t the only one airing chauvinistic fantasies. In August, for example, the Fox News host Jesse Watters declared that, if elected, Harris was “going to get paralyzed in the situation room while the generals have their way with her” – a comment so disgusting that even Watters’ co-hosts asked him to take it back.
Carlson certainly isn’t the only one airing chauvinistic fantasies. In August, for example, the Fox News host Jesse Watters declared that, if elected, Harris was “going to get paralyzed in the situation room while the generals have their way with her” – a comment so disgusting that even Watters’ co-hosts asked him to take it back.
Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
I'm afraid that misogyny will win out. I watched a program on MSNBC where they interviewed minority voters who were planning on voting for Trump. The basic theme was that "he's tough and manly" and they don't think Harris is tough (aka "manly") enough. They think Trump will help with financial situation because "he's a business guy." I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but the percent who will never vote for a woman is too high to overcome with all of the other obstacles such as the electoral college breakdown. I'm afraid I will never see a female president in my lifetime.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Is the US so different from other places, though? Lots of sexist, misogynistic societies have elected female leaders (not always nice ones). Pakistan, India, Bangladesh. In Europe, while female leaders are in a minority, they're nothing unusual. Latin American countries like Argentina, Chile and Brazil are all very sexist places and have all had female presidents.
tbh I thought the US was probably too racist to elect a black president. I was wrong about that.
Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
All those things are true, and I sincerely hope I'm wrong. Even if she wins, it'll be four years of the vilest misogyny you've ever seen, assuming we can avoid the political violence that is likely.
Monte
You can't say lavatory without saying tory.
Most of the shite he's done hasn't come to court yet.
lazythursday
Averagely-Known Member
Given this it's hard not to conclude that if Harris wins it's just delaying the inevitable. There doesn't seem to be much indication of a likely Republican swing to the centre. Nor does there seem to be any movement in US politics to address the causes of this political breakdown or the glaring flaws in the constitution.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Aye, direction of travel is obvious - a Harris win is only delaying the inevitable. I mean its four fewer years of living in a fascist shit hole than otherwise, which is great for those living there, but the end result is the same.
LakieLady
Well-Known Member
That's my fear. And I agree that if Trump wins, he won't serve out his full term. He might just get all his pardoning of himself done and then step down on health grounds or something.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Le Pen and Melloni ( along with Von De Leyen) are very prominent women leaders in the EU
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
But Trump might fuck it all up again and damage the brand, whereas a more competent leader in four years might not.
Partly depends whether ‘the markets’ have already priced-in a Trump victory or whether his election will cause a crash in stocks/value of dollar and trigger some kind of crisis. I would think they’ve already made plans.
Once in power it’s hard to shift these authoritarians due to media control and stifling of dissent, just like how Orban/Erdogan/Modi/Putin just fucking persist in power no matter what. I mean Trump tried this the first time round but he’d done such a wretched job with Covid etc. that it wasn’t enough. I guess a bit of cognitive and physical decline will likely limit his forever rule.
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