Who will win the 2024 US election?
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frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I still think that Harris will scrape it. Part of what made the 2016 election for trump is how arrogant Hillary was and how they just took everything for granted. To the extent of printing magazines celebrating the first female president ffs on the night of the election. I remember telling people I thought Trump would win and being laughed at. This time everyone assumes Trump is going to win but a lot of people have very good reasons to be pissed off with his politics. Remember that in 2016 parts of his campaign were actually really funny (Lyin' Ted etc) and the horrors of a Trump Presidency hadn't actually happened yet.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Part of Trump's appeal in 2016 was that he wasn't really a 'traditional republican' and kind of almost an 'anti political' anti insider type figure that people disengaged from politics can get behind. He gave money to the Democrats and never really said very much on social issues before. His whole appeal was the insults against other Republicans amd the fact he could credibly be seen on social issues to be less extreme than the Republican religious right etc. While he still can be seen as anti political by some, nobody can really deny that he is a Republican now.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Haven't voted as it's too close. I suspect Harris is just about ahead at the moment, inches ahead, nothing more. However what really worries me is that it's all out there in terms of Trump being a narcissist, absurdist, rapist, entirely bent on a revenge mission if he wins. And with all that out there, he's still neck and neck. Some of that might stop traditional Republicans voting for him, but there's not much sign of that. But who knows, anything from a clear Harris win through to a Trump win with added voter manipulation, legal challenges and the rest. Fucking awful for people who live in the USA, but a grim watch over here too.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I'm not as confident on Harris winning as I'd like to be but I think the Roe vs Wade thing is gonna impact a lot of people's votes. Even many Republican voters didn't want it to happen and it's a fact that people are dying because of it. It's a fringe concern of the US religious right, whereas before Trump credibly claimed that he could distance himself from those people. Although he talked about 'building the wall' etc, his appeal was actually as much against the traditional types of Republicans as it was against democrats.
bcuster
Well-Known Member
Still maintaining sizeable lead
www.yahoo.com
Harris leads Trump by 4 points in new tracking survey
Vice President Harris leads her opponent, former President Trump, by 4 points in a new tracking survey that was released on Tuesday. Harris holds a 4-point lead over Trump, 50 percent to 46 percent, among likely voters with less than two weeks before Election Day, according to Morning Consult’s...
scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
Exactly my prediction. I might even put money on it.
scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
Well thank God they never get it wrong then, eh?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I can’t call it . I just wish that Harris had attempted to connect with the public sentiment around the excessive nature of Israel’s response.
scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
They do get it wrong, a lot, especially when it comes to right wing candidates.
I'm not saying I'm right and you're wrong though. It's not like any of us can know until after the election, so there's no point acting as if our opinions are anything more than that.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The issue is that many US pollsters failed to accurately predict the actual strength of the Trump vote in both 2016 & 2020. Unless they've made successful methodological adjustments, there has to be a real chance that they're similarly under-cooking the Trump numbers again.
bcuster
Well-Known Member
all the pollsters must be making the same methodological errors. the numbers are nearly identical. trump behind by 5 or more points...
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
There are two things which worry me about US elections.
Firstly, the opinion polls seem to be moving quite weirdly and the result seems to depend on a handful of States, which brings me to my other worry ...
Secondly, the absurdity of the Electoral College in the modern world.
I would love to see Harris walk it, both in the popular vote and at the EC
However, I think it will be very close indeed. I would prefer Harris to win.
Trump is already saying that if he loses, it will be because it's been rigged [same as last time]
If the orange turd does fix it for him to win [voters being de-registered etc] then the rest of the world will have an even bigger real problem than whatv will go in inside the States themselves [had a foretaste of that prospect with the overturning of Roe v Wade and the info in "project 2025"] ...
Firstly, the opinion polls seem to be moving quite weirdly and the result seems to depend on a handful of States, which brings me to my other worry ...
Secondly, the absurdity of the Electoral College in the modern world.
I would love to see Harris walk it, both in the popular vote and at the EC
However, I think it will be very close indeed. I would prefer Harris to win.
Trump is already saying that if he loses, it will be because it's been rigged [same as last time]
If the orange turd does fix it for him to win [voters being de-registered etc] then the rest of the world will have an even bigger real problem than whatv will go in inside the States themselves [had a foretaste of that prospect with the overturning of Roe v Wade and the info in "project 2025"] ...
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
If it does all still depend on those undecided voters then I think Trump will win, I mean if at this stage you claim to still not get that Trump is a complete pile of shit that shouldnt even be considered then you are probably fucked in the head enough to vote for him.
petee
no gods, no malarkey
don't know about every state, but you're right, it is a state by state thing. here in nys, the greens won't have a line. the working families party will, and harris is their nominee.
a bit sad, when i were a lad there might be a dozen candidates, inc. CPUSA, SPUSA, SWP (trots), SLP (deleonists), liberal (rightwing leftists), local single issue parties, etc.
e2a, 3rd party candidates debate Free & Equal Elections Foundation Debate
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Humberto
Relax
I worry that good posters will rightly think fuck him, but then also fuck this.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Polls don't predict the winner they are an attempt to predict the vote each candidate would get at a particular point in time.
There are models that use polls (as well as other data) to predict the chances of different scenarios, but they are a different thing.
That is not true - poll trackers have the average lead of Harris within the margin of error.
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Harris | Trump | Others/Undecided | Margin |
| Race to the WH, | through October 23, 2024 | October 23 2024 | 49.7% | 47.1% | 3.2% | Harris +2.6% |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through October 23, 2024 | October 23, 2024 | 48.7% | 47.8% | 3.5% | Harris +0.9% |
| 270toWin | through October 23, 2024 | October 23, 2024 | 48.9% | 47.5% | 3.6% | Harris +1.4% |
| 538 | through October 22, 2024 | October 23, 2024 | 48.1% | 46.3% | 5.6% | Harris +1.8% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 22, 2024 | October 23, 2024 | 48.7% | 47.1% | 4.2% | Harris +1.6% |
| Average | 48.8% | 47.2% | 4.0% | Harris +1.6% |
This is a pretty good summary of the state of play and also provide a response to the claims that the Republicans are fixing the polls
andysays
Love and solidarity
Still maintaining sizeable lead
Harris leads Trump by 4 points in new tracking survey
Vice President Harris leads her opponent, former President Trump, by 4 points in a new tracking survey that was released on Tuesday. Harris holds a 4-point lead over Trump, 50 percent to 46 percent, among likely voters with less than two weeks before Election Day, according to Morning Consult’s...
That report focuses on a national poll, in which Harris does indeed have a 4 point lead.
But as we know, the winner isn't calculated on the basis of who gets the majority of the votes nationally. The result is likely to be far closer than that poll suggests.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Hmmm, some thoughts have just read as to why Trump's supporters support him so loyally. Fairly sobering...
This election is not about hate from the Trump supporters, it is not necessarily about intolerance, it is about one thing and one thing only no matter how they dress it up. It’s not inflation everyone knows is down, it is not about the economy, they also know it is pretty good. I could go on but it is about one thing that Trump is brilliant at, FEAR.
Every single group that Trump appeals to has one thing front and center on their minds, FEAR.
They’re coming to get us whoever they are we have to stop this and only Trump can do it.
At the height of the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt became President and famously said, all we have to fear is fear itself.
Today in a time of plenty, when everyone who wants a job has a job and inflation is licked, the economy is roaring, the US is once again at it’s apex. When US allies are looking more and more to the US leadership, when the US dominates AI and other technologies, when US companies especially in tech dominate the world. When the US is still the preferred destination for almost all immigrants who come and work hard to make money and be a part of their new land.
The answer by Trump, is fear fear fear. Everything is fall apart, the country is being ruined or ‘frankly it’s already ruined’ as his mantra.
His supporters lap it up, they see a tough guy fighting for them. Someone who cares about them, they don’t see a charlatan who is ripping them off. They don’t care, they want Trump, we want Trump he makes them feel good. He makes them fear less, he makes them, well feel so good they want to be grabbed by the ‘p….sy’.
They want him, they need him, they will spend their last dollars if necessary for him to get reelected as they fear the most is;
A BLACK INDIAN WOMAN RUNNING THE COUNTRY WITH A JEW AS HER HUSBAND NO LESS.
Heart attack time for Trump supporters as Harris will make all of this worse.
So they want to believe what he says, they want to think Harris is some kind of weirdo who slept her way to the top. They want him to work the fryer at McDonalds to show somehow that he can do anything Harris can but better.
Trump is not conning them, he is their hero.
This election is not about hate from the Trump supporters, it is not necessarily about intolerance, it is about one thing and one thing only no matter how they dress it up. It’s not inflation everyone knows is down, it is not about the economy, they also know it is pretty good. I could go on but it is about one thing that Trump is brilliant at, FEAR.
Every single group that Trump appeals to has one thing front and center on their minds, FEAR.
- For young men, a big target group, fear of being left behind in an economy where they cannot compete and they cannot find jobs for their diminishing or non-existent skills.
- Fear that there will be not just no high paying labor jobs as they are all be ‘taken by immigrants’, but no pensions.
- Of course fear that somehow the Democrats will take away Social Security.
- Fear and hope that somehow Trump can bring back high paying jobs which disappeared decades ago.
- Fear that they cannot compete against immigrants especially if the immigrants are getting something for free as Trump is always lying about nights in 5 star hotels.
- Fear of the homeless, fear that they may become homeless.
- Fear that roving gangs are coming to get them.
- Fear that they will have their guns taken away from them.
- Fear that the government will take them away for something they haven’t done and lock them up.
- Fear that women have passed them by and have emasculated them to where they are no longer a man.
- Fear of a loss of control in their lives.
- Fear that their kids and grandkids are being ‘groomed’ and will be trained to be gay or worse yet, transgender.
- Fear that CRT and other black curriculums will force their children to learn the wrong history and a big one;
- Fear of losing their culture to groups that have no right to be in America.
- Fear of Muslims, of gangs, of violence, of going into the cities where they will be murdered randomly and they might not get their guns out in time to ‘stand their ground’.
- Fear that their daughters will get pregnant and partner with a black/latino tough kid who they will have to fear for their daughter and for themselves.
- Fear that they will be ‘replaced’ with the GREAT REPLACEMENT THEORY which to them is not a theory it is a reality.
- Fear of being overwhelmed by people of color, any color other than white.
- Fear by young black men that just when they were getting a chance, the Democrats are giving everything to everyone but them, even Black women are getting more.
- Fear by Latinos, especially but not exclusively in Florida (Cuban) that too many immigrants will come in and they will lose out on opportunities.
- Fear that their neighborhood is going down due to changes and illegal immigrants.
- Fear that the US has become weak and only Trump can save it. Fear that Biden has given everything away and Harris is worse.
- Fear that they are being hated on just for being Christian. Fear that their type of Christianity will be taken away.
- Fear that god will not be allowed in schools.
- Fear that the gas price will just keep going up until they can’t fill the tank any more.
They’re coming to get us whoever they are we have to stop this and only Trump can do it.
At the height of the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt became President and famously said, all we have to fear is fear itself.
Today in a time of plenty, when everyone who wants a job has a job and inflation is licked, the economy is roaring, the US is once again at it’s apex. When US allies are looking more and more to the US leadership, when the US dominates AI and other technologies, when US companies especially in tech dominate the world. When the US is still the preferred destination for almost all immigrants who come and work hard to make money and be a part of their new land.
The answer by Trump, is fear fear fear. Everything is fall apart, the country is being ruined or ‘frankly it’s already ruined’ as his mantra.
His supporters lap it up, they see a tough guy fighting for them. Someone who cares about them, they don’t see a charlatan who is ripping them off. They don’t care, they want Trump, we want Trump he makes them feel good. He makes them fear less, he makes them, well feel so good they want to be grabbed by the ‘p….sy’.
They want him, they need him, they will spend their last dollars if necessary for him to get reelected as they fear the most is;
A BLACK INDIAN WOMAN RUNNING THE COUNTRY WITH A JEW AS HER HUSBAND NO LESS.
Heart attack time for Trump supporters as Harris will make all of this worse.
So they want to believe what he says, they want to think Harris is some kind of weirdo who slept her way to the top. They want him to work the fryer at McDonalds to show somehow that he can do anything Harris can but better.
Trump is not conning them, he is their hero.
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
The bookies have it at Trump 7/10, Harris 7/5.
If I have this right (I'm not a bettor) then they think Trump will win.
If I have this right (I'm not a bettor) then they think Trump will win.
andysays
Love and solidarity
I think, unfortunately, that this is more or less correct. A lot of these fears are irrational, but fear often is irrational, and can't be countered simply by rational argument.
One of the big questions (probably outside the scope of this thread, TBH) is why are so many people susceptible to these sort of fears (and of course it's not just people in the US)?
What are the conditions in many people's actual lived experience which leads some of them to being vulnerable to having these fears stoked up by Trump, Farage and other far-right populists?
How can these fears be countered and how can people's life experiences be altered so that they are no longer so vulnerable to far-right populists spreading fear of "the other"?
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Harris campaign sounding increasingly desperate. 
The stuff about fear is defeinitely in the mix - my sense is there is a two fold reason for trumps bewildering popularity
1. A persiatnt socail economic maliase rooted in the faliure of neo-liberalism to improve wages, housing, services (and the lack of alternatives) has laid the ground for -
2. An increasinlgy alienated and isolated society more and more susceptable to fear based narratives and conspiracy theories and - the factor that is pushing this over the line - these being hugely amplifed and embedded by socail media.
So - no matter how outrageous, depraved or demented Trump's behaviour - those invested in the Fear/conspiracy narrative automattically dismiss it as "false news" or excuse it and have an entire online info-sphere to reinforce their views.
I think its a hugely dangerous situation which has been increasingly apparent for years - but which has been marginalised or dismissed under the mistaken assumption that "normal" political laws and reality would "naturally" reassert themselves. (see also - people welcoming the rise of ReFuk and the Tory party drifting in ever more trumpian waters cos it "good for labour") . And this now may be about to give control of the most powerful nation on the planet to a bunch of autocratic, facsistic grifters, gangsters and far right ideolouges with a demented, unstable and easliy manipulated angry man baby at the helm.
The stuff about fear is defeinitely in the mix - my sense is there is a two fold reason for trumps bewildering popularity
1. A persiatnt socail economic maliase rooted in the faliure of neo-liberalism to improve wages, housing, services (and the lack of alternatives) has laid the ground for -
2. An increasinlgy alienated and isolated society more and more susceptable to fear based narratives and conspiracy theories and - the factor that is pushing this over the line - these being hugely amplifed and embedded by socail media.
So - no matter how outrageous, depraved or demented Trump's behaviour - those invested in the Fear/conspiracy narrative automattically dismiss it as "false news" or excuse it and have an entire online info-sphere to reinforce their views.
I think its a hugely dangerous situation which has been increasingly apparent for years - but which has been marginalised or dismissed under the mistaken assumption that "normal" political laws and reality would "naturally" reassert themselves. (see also - people welcoming the rise of ReFuk and the Tory party drifting in ever more trumpian waters cos it "good for labour") . And this now may be about to give control of the most powerful nation on the planet to a bunch of autocratic, facsistic grifters, gangsters and far right ideolouges with a demented, unstable and easliy manipulated angry man baby at the helm.
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
it means more money has gone on trump so the odds have changed to reflect their usual desire to pay out as little as they can
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
Could someone tell me if I'm right about the bookies expecting it to be Trump please?
Post #86.
Post #86.
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