Who will win the 2024 US election?
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frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I still think that Harris will scrape it. Part of what made the 2016 election for trump is how arrogant Hillary was and how they just took everything for granted. To the extent of printing magazines celebrating the first female president ffs on the night of the election. I remember telling people I thought Trump would win and being laughed at. This time everyone assumes Trump is going to win but a lot of people have very good reasons to be pissed off with his politics. Remember that in 2016 parts of his campaign were actually really funny (Lyin' Ted etc) and the horrors of a Trump Presidency hadn't actually happened yet.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Part of Trump's appeal in 2016 was that he wasn't really a 'traditional republican' and kind of almost an 'anti political' anti insider type figure that people disengaged from politics can get behind. He gave money to the Democrats and never really said very much on social issues before. His whole appeal was the insults against other Republicans amd the fact he could credibly be seen on social issues to be less extreme than the Republican religious right etc. While he still can be seen as anti political by some, nobody can really deny that he is a Republican now.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Haven't voted as it's too close. I suspect Harris is just about ahead at the moment, inches ahead, nothing more. However what really worries me is that it's all out there in terms of Trump being a narcissist, absurdist, rapist, entirely bent on a revenge mission if he wins. And with all that out there, he's still neck and neck. Some of that might stop traditional Republicans voting for him, but there's not much sign of that. But who knows, anything from a clear Harris win through to a Trump win with added voter manipulation, legal challenges and the rest. Fucking awful for people who live in the USA, but a grim watch over here too.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I'm not as confident on Harris winning as I'd like to be but I think the Roe vs Wade thing is gonna impact a lot of people's votes. Even many Republican voters didn't want it to happen and it's a fact that people are dying because of it. It's a fringe concern of the US religious right, whereas before Trump credibly claimed that he could distance himself from those people. Although he talked about 'building the wall' etc, his appeal was actually as much against the traditional types of Republicans as it was against democrats.
bcuster
Well-Known Member
Still maintaining sizeable lead
www.yahoo.com
Harris leads Trump by 4 points in new tracking survey
Vice President Harris leads her opponent, former President Trump, by 4 points in a new tracking survey that was released on Tuesday. Harris holds a 4-point lead over Trump, 50 percent to 46 percent, among likely voters with less than two weeks before Election Day, according to Morning Consult’s...
scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
Exactly my prediction. I might even put money on it.
scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
Well thank God they never get it wrong then, eh?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I can’t call it . I just wish that Harris had attempted to connect with the public sentiment around the excessive nature of Israel’s response.
scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
They do get it wrong, a lot, especially when it comes to right wing candidates.
I'm not saying I'm right and you're wrong though. It's not like any of us can know until after the election, so there's no point acting as if our opinions are anything more than that.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The issue is that many US pollsters failed to accurately predict the actual strength of the Trump vote in both 2016 & 2020. Unless they've made successful methodological adjustments, there has to be a real chance that they're similarly under-cooking the Trump numbers again.
bcuster
Well-Known Member
all the pollsters must be making the same methodological errors. the numbers are nearly identical. trump behind by 5 or more points...
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
There are two things which worry me about US elections.
Firstly, the opinion polls seem to be moving quite weirdly and the result seems to depend on a handful of States, which brings me to my other worry ...
Secondly, the absurdity of the Electoral College in the modern world.
I would love to see Harris walk it, both in the popular vote and at the EC
However, I think it will be very close indeed. I would prefer Harris to win.
Trump is already saying that if he loses, it will be because it's been rigged [same as last time]
If the orange turd does fix it for him to win [voters being de-registered etc] then the rest of the world will have an even bigger real problem than whatv will go in inside the States themselves [had a foretaste of that prospect with the overturning of Roe v Wade and the info in "project 2025"] ...
Firstly, the opinion polls seem to be moving quite weirdly and the result seems to depend on a handful of States, which brings me to my other worry ...
Secondly, the absurdity of the Electoral College in the modern world.
I would love to see Harris walk it, both in the popular vote and at the EC
However, I think it will be very close indeed. I would prefer Harris to win.
Trump is already saying that if he loses, it will be because it's been rigged [same as last time]
If the orange turd does fix it for him to win [voters being de-registered etc] then the rest of the world will have an even bigger real problem than whatv will go in inside the States themselves [had a foretaste of that prospect with the overturning of Roe v Wade and the info in "project 2025"] ...
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
If it does all still depend on those undecided voters then I think Trump will win, I mean if at this stage you claim to still not get that Trump is a complete pile of shit that shouldnt even be considered then you are probably fucked in the head enough to vote for him.
petee
no gods, no malarkey
don't know about every state, but you're right, it is a state by state thing. here in nys, the greens won't have a line. the working families party will, and harris is their nominee.
a bit sad, when i were a lad there might be a dozen candidates, inc. CPUSA, SPUSA, SWP (trots), SLP (deleonists), liberal (rightwing leftists), local single issue parties, etc.
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