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Who will win the 2024 US election?

Who will win?


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At least now there is a real choice. Who could have voted for either Biden or Trump?

I dare say Biden is a decent enough bloke, but the decline in both his physical and mental capacity was becoming very obvious. Given his age, little wonder.
 
At least now there is a real choice. Who could have voted for either Biden or Trump?

I dare say Biden is a decent enough bloke, but the decline in both his physical and mental capacity was becoming very obvious. Given his age, little wonder.

compared to trump?


at an age yourself sass would you say trump is in prime condition physically and mentally :hmm:
 
It goes on too long.

I am past caring who wins.

I just want the endless partisan reporting and obsessive news cycle to stop!
 
Like most people, I'm at the level of just viewing the polls and reading the news stories. But even at that level of 'analysis', there's a direction of travel towards a Trump win. There will be, pretty much as always, 'something' going on under the radar that the polls are not picking up, something in a particular state or in terms of turnout (overall or amongst specific groups). But the existence of that 'something' won't necessarily help Harris, could just as much benefit Trump. And similarly, you just don't get the sense that the Harris strategy is working, focusing on the 'threat to democracy'. It might firm up the people who were already voting for her, people deeply hostile to Trump, but that may not be enough. Ironically, if she does lose, Trump will be that threat to democracy.
 
I think it'll be harris -usual dot based caveats apply to my thinking- but it shouldn't be this close and if it materialises as this close the election denials will be endless.

on pure selfish grounds the dems winning with harris gets me 70 quid so that may also be clouding my prognosticatory powers
 
Again, Trump is working really hard (with Musk’s PAC heavily involved) in getting out the vote and reaching people who don’t normally bother voting. Like Brexit, this is the sort of thing polling models may well be missing. I’m just hoping it’s balanced by voters motivated by abortion restrictions etc. as with the mid terms.
 
Is Trump genuinely a threat to democracy?
Yes. And we can see that already: the Supreme Court ruling on immunity (with counter opinions that pointed out it made the role of president closer to that of monarch); his hand picked judge ruling on his own Florida-based court case; Republican courts throwing millions off the electoral register; his desire to 'be a dictator on day one', including demolishing the Department of Education and gutting the Justice Dept; his statements to Christians that 'this will be the last election you'll vote in", and the other day when talking of 'his little secret ' with Speaker Johnson which could mean the election results being discarded.

He's a threat to women, the transgender community, the environment, the global economy, and to democrats (small and capital "d"). Of course he's a threat to democracy.
 
There's a difference between what he/they say and what they'll actually do. I'm sure they'll pass some horrific legislation. But are we looking at either a military coup or populist putch with any chance of success in reality?
 
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