Who will win the 2024 US election?

[bcuster]

Looks like Trump has even less support from the youngsters than perhaps he had thought

Half of Gen Z voters say they’ve lied about their votes: Survey​

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4961700-gen-z-voters-lie-candidates-poll/

The intense polarization this election cycle might result in some staying quiet or lying on the topic of their political beliefs when around friends and family.

 

[Wilf]

Looks like Trump has even less support from the youngsters than perhaps he had thought

Half of Gen Z voters say they’ve lied about their votes: Survey​

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4961700-gen-z-voters-lie-candidates-poll/

The intense polarization this election cycle might result in some staying quiet or lying on the topic of their political beliefs when around friends and family.

Why does that harm Trump? Those lying about their vote probably will be voting for one candidate more than the other, but the story doesn't say it benefits Harris. I'd have thought that, if anything, these would be shy Trump voters.

 

[bcuster]

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Georgia, North Carolina Still Razor-Thin—And Pennsylvania’s A Tie (Updated)

There's no clear leader in the seven swing states likely to decide the election.

www.forbes.com

Wisconsin: Harris is up 50%-47% over Trump in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in the CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% in a Marquette poll, in an Emerson survey and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is up 0.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

 

[bcuster]

Why does that harm Trump? Those lying about their vote probably will be voting for one candidate more than the other, but the story doesn't say it benefits Harris. I'd have thought that, if anything, these would be shy Trump voters.

I'd think it'd be the other way around. Gen Z lying to their more conservative parents

 

[Sasaferrato]

Looks like Trump has even less support from the youngsters than perhaps he had thought

Half of Gen Z voters say they’ve lied about their votes: Survey​

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4961700-gen-z-voters-lie-candidates-poll/

The intense polarization this election cycle might result in some staying quiet or lying on the topic of their political beliefs when around friends and family.

Who the fuck are Gen Z? What happened to age brackets?

 

[bcuster]

Who the fuck are Gen Z? What happened to age brackets?

Young people late 20's 30ish

 

[ID47]

Fentanyl patches and ketamine handed out like smarties in the White House? OK, he's having mini strokes, he's shitting himself, he struggles to talk and to walk but that amount of drugs! It's right at the end of the video btw.

 

[scifisam]

Young people late 20's 30ish

30ish is a couple of years out - 28 is the usual boundary. And yes it's stupid, of course, but 1996/7 is the usual start point, so they're not 30ish.

 

[Wilf]

I'd think it'd be the other way around. Gen Z lying to their more conservative parents

Anyway, it doesn't really affect the likely standing of the candidates. They are admitting to lying to someone close, not the pollsters.

 

[Sue]

It's so mad that Trump can run for president again.

And that it's so close. I mean

 

[breadandcircuse]

Fentanyl patches and ketamine handed out like smarties in the White House? OK, he's having mini strokes, he's shitting himself, he struggles to talk and to walk but that amount of drugs! It's right at the end of the video btw.

It was reported some time ago, with the evidence, that Jackson was handing out drugs like smarties, to not only the thing, but many in his administration. I can't remember the amounts off the top of my head, but it was way more than ever prescribed previously. To be fair, you'd have to be off your tits to be working for that bastard anyway.

 

[Wilf]

Fentanyl patches and ketamine handed out like smarties in the White House? OK, he's having mini strokes, he's shitting himself, he struggles to talk and to walk but that amount of drugs! It's right at the end of the video btw.

Pointless stuff from the Dems, just an attempt to build an equivalent narrative to that around Biden. Trump may well be showing signs of aging, but this kind of stuff is just desperate.

 

[krtek a houby]

Who the fuck are Gen Z? What happened to age brackets?

You're the Silent Generation or possibly the Greatest Generation or maybe even the Lost Generation...

 

[_Russ_]

Which one is the 'none of this is my fault' Generation?

 

[krtek a houby]

Which one is the 'none of this is my fault' Generation?

The Russ Generation

 

[SpookyFrank]

You're the Silent Generation or possibly the Greatest Generation or maybe even the Lost Generation...

I think we can safely rule out 'greatest' tbh.

 

[Wilf]

Anyway, if the polls are anything like correct, whoever emerges ahead on Tuesday, this is going to end up in the courts. Perhaps the Supreme Court - I'm trying to remember whether the hanging Chad case ever went beyond the Florida courts? Probably end up on the streets too if Trump loses.

 

[kebabking]

Anyway, if the polls are anything like correct, whoever emerges ahead on Tuesday, this is going to end up in the courts. Perhaps the Supreme Court - I'm trying to remember whether the hanging Chad case ever went beyond the Florida courts? Probably end up on the streets too if Trump loses.

Somalia with nukes.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Basically, the Dems have to pull off a landslide, winning both electoral college and popular vote to have a chance of spiking Trump’s guns. Anything less and MAGAts will claim the election is “stolen” - and has been said already, they have spent the last four years getting hand-picked Republicans into position in the likely key states to challenge results that do not favour Trump. Any challenge-able result means MAGA move to create chaos, leading to the pivot point where state forces (army, cops) are faced with the choice of which claim of legitimacy they back.

It is not like they have not been telegraphing their intentions…

We are surely past the point where we expect elections where the global new right/tech oligarchs are involved to be conducted in a civil fashion. Where we expect rationalism or openness to alternative viewpoints on the behalf of the conspira-zombie armies they have purposely been fashioning. The world is going to shit - the oligarchs have decided that their best chance of survival is to propagate fascist regimes. The US is just the biggest prize now they have Hungary, India, Italy, Turkey etc etc

The pressing need for those of us in Britain is/will be to build solidarity and resistance.

 

[LakieLady]

I was reading about some recent polls earlier and have switched from thinking that it's too close to call to feeling ever so slightly optimistic about a Harris win.

 

[PR1Berske]

Who the fuck are Gen Z? What happened to age brackets?

Age brackets are so boomer

 

[The39thStep]

Ladies and Gentlemen, the European Greens

 

[Kaka Tim]

Basically, the Dems have to pull off a landslide, winning both electoral college and popular vote to have a chance of spiking Trump’s guns. Anything less and MAGAts will claim the election is “stolen” - and has been said already, they have spent the last four years getting hand-picked Republicans into position in the likely key states to challenge results that do not favour Trump. Any challenge-able result means MAGA move to create chaos, leading to the pivot point where state forces (army, cops) are faced with the choice of which claim of legitimacy they back.

It is not like they have not been telegraphing their intentions…

We are surely past the point where we expect elections where the global new right/tech oligarchs are involved to be conducted in a civil fashion. Where we expect rationalism or openness to alternative viewpoints on the behalf of the conspira-zombie armies they have purposely been fashioning. The world is going to shit - the oligarchs have decided that their best chance of survival is to propagate fascist regimes. The US is just the biggest prize now they have Hungary, India, Italy, Turkey etc etc

The pressing need for those of us in Britain is/will be to build solidarity and resistance.

THey will create shit if Harris wins whatever the margin of victory. It wont stop Harris becoming president - but will will provoke a lot of aggro. Their legal challenges will get chucked out exactly like last time. I cant see any sort of process where Trump can install himself in the whitehouse other than by actaully winning the election. THe armed forces swear loyalty to the president (i.e. Joe Biden) and the constiution - whilst some of them - and more so the cops - may be pro-trump, they arent going to rebel and launch military coup.

 

[bcuster]

• 48.9 percent to 48.4 percent
  • An AtlasIntel poll of 1,665 likely voters in North Carolina showed Harris with a 0.5-point lead over Trump, 48.9 percent to 48.4 percent, in a head-to-head race.
  www.newsweek.com › kamala-harris-polls-north-carolina-election-1977197
  New polls show Kamala Harris' chances of winning North Carolina

 

[pbsmooth]

You have to remember polls are commissioned and paid for by someone and not always with honest intentions.

 

[Hollis]

I was reading about some recent polls earlier and have switched from thinking that it's too close to call to feeling ever so slightly optimistic about a Harris win.

I think Democrats have been ahead in the postal votes in the last 2 elections - it's a matter of how far ahead they are.. my undestanding is they're not as far ahead as Biden was at this stage.. But there is an element of apples and oranges as Trump didn't encourage postal votes last election and has at this one.

 

[krtek a houby]

Ladies and Gentlemen, the European Greens

View attachment 449334

Saw Stein and Butch Ware in an interview recently about anti-zionism. Quite eloquent, compared to the mainstream parties.

(Disclaimer - knows very like about the US Greens, probably as disappointing as the UK lot)

 

[The39thStep]

Saw Stein and Butch Ware in an interview recently about anti-zionism. Quite eloquent, compared to the mainstream parties.

(Disclaimer - knows very like about the US Greens, probably as disappointing as the UK lot)

I don't know much about them either tbh. They get very little coverage in the press. However, looking at that Euro green list and there are several parties on there whose policies on the genocide range from whataboutery to outright support for Israel. The German Greens must be one of the most bloodthirsty parties in government in Europe.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Fentanyl patches and ketamine handed out like smarties in the White House? OK, he's having mini strokes, he's shitting himself, he struggles to talk and to walk but that amount of drugs! It's right at the end of the video btw.

I had to give up on that when the presenter solemnly states that Trump is defecating. He's not. He's trumping. Big horrible smelly ones judging by the reactions. I agree with Wilf that it's a bit desperate, especially as loads of it is from years ago, so whatever the problem is, it's not new.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

THey will create shit if Harris wins whatever the margin of victory. It wont stop Harris becoming president - but will will provoke a lot of aggro. Their legal challenges will get chucked out exactly like last time. I cant see any sort of process where Trump can install himself in the whitehouse other than by actaully winning the election. THe armed forces swear loyalty to the president (i.e. Joe Biden) and the constiution - whilst some of them - and more so the cops - may be pro-trump, they arent going to rebel and launch military coup.

Well, that is the hope…
The hope of MAGA though, in the disputed election scenario, probably rests on the states rights agenda and interpretation of the constitution. Hence, red states declaring that they believe that Trump won and calling on those state forces that are under the control of individual states with republican administrations to act accordingly against “tyrannical” federal interference. At that point you have a constitutional crisis, with the federal government confronting the very question of using military force internally that has outraged their half of America when hypothesised by Trump himself (as a way he would deal with opponents) during the election campaign.