Who will win the 2024 US election?
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littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I think that's a highly unlikely scenario.
I can see Trump losing and being left with little more than impotent rage.
The Lincoln Project is a liberal Republican Party PAC that opposes Donald Trump
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Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I see they are trying to revive Trump's Epstein links this weekend Jeffrey Epstein showed photos of Trump with topless young women, author claims
A sign of how far things have gone that these further details in the story, which are all a bit second hand anyway, won't even flicker the needle.
A sign of how far things have gone that these further details in the story, which are all a bit second hand anyway, won't even flicker the needle.
spring-peeper
Well-Known Member
I see they are trying to revive Trump's Epstein links this weekend Jeffrey Epstein showed photos of Trump with topless young women, author claims
A sign of how far things have gone that these further details in the story, which are all a bit second hand anyway, won't even flicker the needle.
powerful!!!
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
My bet is Harris. Trumps polling is over priced. And the Democrats are better at early voting and postal voting.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Jesus
www.newsweek.com
How Mormons could be Kamala Harris' secret weapon in Arizona
Some members of the Church of Latter-Day Saints are growing uncomfortable with the way the GOP talks about immigrants.
www.newsweek.com
Jesus
How Mormons could be Kamala Harris' secret weapon in Arizona
Some members of the Church of Latter-Day Saints are growing uncomfortable with the way the GOP talks about immigrants.
My brother-in-law lives in the US and is a Mormon convert of Asian descent who married into a Mormon family who are very conservative as you would expect.
I never discuss politics with them for obvious reasons but I heard via my wife that their (very large) extended family are mostly no longer voting for Trump although they did the previous two elections but are voting for some third candidate instead.
That piece of information made me feel Harris will win, that article is the first verification I've seen of my anecdote being part of a larger trend.
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King Biscuit Time
Well-Known Member
Harris still way underpriced. I came into a couple hundred quid this week and I'd be happy to risk it on Harris and stand to get back 500 at current odds.
The only thing stopping me doing do is that if Trump wins, I'm gonna need that money and more besides to cheer me up.
The only thing stopping me doing do is that if Trump wins, I'm gonna need that money and more besides to cheer me up.
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Skinny Ethel
Well-Known Member
Do not gamble if you cannot afford to lose it.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Guardian piece on 'herding' amongst the pollsters, creating the impression that it is neck and neck. No evidence for it, but strong suggestions they are finding wider margins in their data but are then 'flattening' the actual poll results to avoid getting it wildly wrong. Pretty cowardly if true - you only had one job to do - but might explain why the results have been so 'improbably' consistent.
www.theguardian.com
Dead-heat poll results are astonishing – and improbable, these experts say
It’s possible the tied race reflects not the sentiments of the voters, but rather risk-averse decision-making by pollsters
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Not a prediction however this , rather long but very readable, blog by economist Michael Roberts explains exactly why working class voters don’t see much benefit from the economy under the Democrats .
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
The US presidential election: part one – the economy
I am doing two posts before the US presidential election on Tuesday. The first is on the state of the US economy; and the second will be on the respective economic policies of the two main ca…
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Can you contextualise that for us?
We know Biden won big among postal voters last time out. How does this compare to that? We also know Trump is now saying that it's ok to vote postally, so how has that affected Republican early voting?
Same kind of question re the second stat. What was the split in men/women for early voting in the last election?
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
The Dems have a very capable GOTV operation so not sure anything Trump says will matter much without a comparable one…
breadandcircuse
Well-Known Member
Lovely!
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I suspect that if a more unlikely result comes out as true then the second explanation the authors give will be correct rather than the first oneGuardian piece on 'herding' amongst the pollsters, creating the impression that it is neck and neck. No evidence for it, but strong suggestions they are finding wider margins in their data but are then 'flattening' the actual poll results to avoid getting it wildly wrong. Pretty cowardly if true - you only had one job to do - but might explain why the results have been so 'improbably' consistent.
Dead-heat poll results are astonishing – and improbable, these experts say
It’s possible the tied race reflects not the sentiments of the voters, but rather risk-averse decision-making by pollsters
But I don;t actually think it is that improbable that the shares of the vote will be quite close - it was in 2016, it was in 2020, it has been in other elections. Why would Harris win by a much larger margin than Biden? For good or ill people know what Trump is and what Harris and the Democrats are.
(Which does not mean that the correction factors polling companies may be using are correct).
Yossarian
⏭️
Not sure how accurate this analyst's track record of predictions is, but he argues that pollsters who underestimated Trump's support in 2016 and 2020 may have overcorrected and are now underestimating Harris' support among groups like Nikki Haley voters
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Well - cos trump is even more extreme and demented and has declined physically - and is now a convicted felon - whereas Harris is considerably younger than biden and trump. Plus Roe vs Wade got overturned since the last election. All reasons that Harris might beat Trump convincingly. Not saying she will -but all stuff that could have a significent impact (especially the abortion stuff - as we've already seen in the midterms)
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
You could argue that this was already baked in in the 2020 and 2016 elections - both Biden and Clinton won convincingly with women, Trump won with men in both elections.
We're all in the dark really. Pollsters are flailing, finding their historical precedents to be poor predictors but with little to base corrections on.
I think we can say a few things with confidence. Harris will win comfortably among women, as Clinton and Biden did. Harris will win the popular vote, as Clinton and Biden did, probably quite comfortably.
But could Trump fluke a victory like he did in 2016? The idea should be ridiculous and outlandishly unlikely, but it isn't quite.
If I were a pollster, I'd be tempted to throw out some numbers without trying to correct, particularly if they're predicting a big Harris victory. I do think that's possible - the possible range is between a big Harris victory and a Trump fluke win. If nobody else is predicting that and you are and you're right, you've made your name. Got to be worth a punt.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
That's certainly true, though Trump has been almost deliberately undermining his position with women over the last few days. And I doubt that coming out with misogynistic shit necessarily brings on board an equivalent number of male bigots. No idea what the result will be and I don't think the 'Trump has cognitive decline' stuff is either helpful or necessarily true. However he does seem to have lost the instinctive touch he had that allowed him to make his pitch in 2016.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
See ya Wednesday.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
The abortion stuff is new though. As is Harris being significantly younger.
ohmyliver
poppin' like a cork
That Selzer poll is out. Most accurate poll in the US apparently.
It has Harris up +3 in Iowa
going by that Bahnhof Strasse I think you might be underselling Harris
It has Harris up +3 in Iowa
going by that Bahnhof Strasse I think you might be underselling Harris
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
What did it say in the 2016 election?
I think Harris will win but the polls were mostly wrong then.
ohmyliver
poppin' like a cork
It had Trump at +7, Trump won by +9
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Like LBJ I think all the stuff is baked in already. And the Democrats did less well in the 2022 midterms than 2018.
In 2020 the Democrats had the advantage of Trump's terrible handling of Covid (and general presidential actions) very much at the front of voters minds, Biden offering something new, and no hot conflict in Palestine causing them headaches with some of their base.
ohmyliver
poppin' like a cork
The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.
Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.
Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.
eu.desmoinesregister.com
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.
Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.
Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”
eu.desmoinesregister.com
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