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Who will win the 2024 US election?

Who will win?

  • Total voters
    147
this is her polls since 2012
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)
 
I'm certainly edging towards Harris now, with all these straws in the wind about even more women voters going for her. If that's how it goes, part of his defeat will be down to Trump's idiocy and lack of political strategy in the last couple of weeks.
 
In all the discussion and reporting of this on BBC Radio 4, the majority of which is not of worth, there is no mention of elections to Congress. All seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, and one third of Senate seats, on the same day as the Presisential election.
Does anyone have any information about how those elections are expected to go?
 
We have a lot of Mormons in New Zealand and they tend to vote Labour here in quite high numbers, and we have quite a few Mormon union leaders, organisers and reps as well.
Rimbaud said:
My brother-in-law lives in the US and is a Mormon convert of Asian descent who married into a Mormon family who are very conservative as you would expect.

I never discuss politics with them for obvious reasons but I heard via my wife that their (very large) extended family are mostly no longer voting for Trump although they did the previous two elections but are voting for some third candidate instead.

That piece of information made me feel Harris will win, that article is the first verification I've seen of my anecdote being part of a larger trend.
Click to expand...
 
ohmyliver said:
The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.

Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.

Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.


eu.desmoinesregister.com

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”
eu.desmoinesregister.com eu.desmoinesregister.com
Click to expand...
As Iowa goes, so goeth the nation
 
PTK said:
In all the discussion and reporting of this on BBC Radio 4, the majority of which is not of worth, there is no mention of elections to Congress. All seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, and one third of Senate seats, on the same day as the Presisential election.
Does anyone have any information about how those elections are expected to go?
Click to expand...
It's a difficult round for the Dems in the Senate. They have more than twice as many sitting senators as the Republicans up for election this year. Recent polls suggest the Republicans are likely to regain control.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
It's a difficult round for the Dems in the Senate. They have more than twice as many sitting senators as the Republicans up for election this year. Recent polls suggest the Republicans are likely to regain control.
Click to expand...
If they do regain control then the dems winning the presidency and house will have been a waste of time as they'll do to her what mcconnell did to Obama when the republicans last regained the senate. Her legislative agenda will be dead on arrival and only shit the republicans approve of will get passed. It will be a total shitshow which the republicans will fully capitalise on come the 2026 midterms. The only way Harris gets to enact any of the stuff that she is pledging is if the dems win all 3 this time around and steamroll it through before 2026...
 
Iowa poll is very encouraging... hopefully we're going to see a Brexit style surprise in reverse..

Betting odds are narrowing again now.
 
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redsquirrel said:
I suspect that if a more unlikely result comes out as true then the second explanation the authors give will be correct rather than the first one

But I don;t actually think it is that improbable that the shares of the vote will be quite close - it was in 2016, it was in 2020, it has been in other elections. Why would Harris win by a much larger margin than Biden? For good or ill people know what Trump is and what Harris and the Democrats are.
(Which does not mean that the correction factors polling companies may be using are correct).
Click to expand...

I don't think the article is about what the actual result will be, though, it's just about the polls. It's just really unlikely that, every single time in such a massive number of polls, they get the same result. Sheer chance should mean that, now and then, the respondents happen to be more on one side than the other.
 
Nylock said:
If they do regain control then the dems winning the presidency and house will have been a waste of time as they'll do to her what mcconnell did to Obama when the republicans last regained the senate. Her legislative agenda will be dead on arrival and only shit the republicans approve of will get passed. It will be a total shitshow which the republicans will fully capitalise on come the 2026 midterms. The only way Harris gets to enact any of the stuff that she is pledging is if the dems win all 3 this time around and steamroll it through before 2026...
Click to expand...
Yep and it's not very likely that the post-Trump Republican Party will 'return to the centre'.
 
the final pre-election polls in 2020 had trump 1.5-2% ahead. He won by 8%. Sadly, I don’t think a lead within the margin of error will be enough.
 
belboid said:
the final pre-election polls in 2020 had trump 1.5-2% ahead. He won by 8%. Sadly, I don’t think a lead within the margin of error will be enough.
Click to expand...

I'll be surprised if Iowa ends up going to Harris, but Selzer called it right in 2020 and in previous years

chrome-capture-2024-11-3 (1).png


Iowa introduced a 6-week abortion ban in July and polls in September found most voters are against it

A majority of Iowans oppose the state’s new “fetal heartbeat” law, which bans most abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

The poll found that 59% of Iowans — including 69% of women — disapprove of the new restrictions. It found 37% of Iowans favor the new law, and 5% are not sure.

www.desmoinesregister.com

Iowa Poll: Most Iowans oppose state's 6-week abortion ban law now in effect

Most Iowans oppose the state’s 6-week abortion ban, results show in the first Iowa Poll since the state Supreme Court ruled the law could be enforced
www.desmoinesregister.com www.desmoinesregister.com
 
Rimbaud said:
My brother-in-law lives in the US and is a Mormon convert of Asian descent who married into a Mormon family who are very conservative as you would expect.

I never discuss politics with them for obvious reasons but I heard via my wife that their (very large) extended family are mostly no longer voting for Trump although they did the previous two elections but are voting for some third candidate instead.

That piece of information made me feel Harris will win, that article is the first verification I've seen of my anecdote being part of a larger trend.
Click to expand...

have they mentioned this guy? he ran because he thought trump was depraved.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Evan McMullin - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
Apparently there has been a surge of Republican voters registration, so unless they are registering to keep Trump out, my bet is on Trump. Fucking hell. I hate that man. He's the embodiment of all the bad character traits. So depressing.
 
I´ve been following the betting odds. At the weekend, Harris was 36% and Trump 64%. This morning it has narrowed to 45-55, which suggests some kind of impetus on the Harris side.

Michael Moore, who unpopularly but correctly predicted a Trump victory in 2016, predicts a Harris victory in 2024. I hope he´s right.
 
these pollsters are complete bollocks, aren't they? I'm finding myself being very annoyed by the existence of Nate Silver. seems to have elevated asking a load of random people every day to some sort of mystical status, while at the same time saying, in a hundred different ways, that you can never really know. and yet here you are seemingly making a good living out of sharing polls...
 
Wilf said:
I'm certainly edging towards Harris now, with all these straws in the wind about even more women voters going for her. If that's how it goes, part of his defeat will be down to Trump's idiocy and lack of political strategy in the last couple of weeks.
Click to expand...

Me too. The support from women, especially reports about her support among older women, has shifted me from "too close to call" to "Harris has a chance". Still only a chance, but I'd put it around 55/45, maybe even 60/40.

As a group, older women tend to have higher than average turnout at elections (although that may only be a UK thing).
 
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