Who does Urban think (not hope) will win the November US Presidential Election? (The Poll)

[Donald H]

I think he'll definitely try. The question I guess is whether he can get the backing to pull it off if he tries to overturn it. America is so fucked it's tempting to think he would but then he's already been slapped down by the Republicans in Congress when he floated the idea of delaying and they're exactly the sort of people he'd need onside. However mad they are trying to throw out election results would be a big step for them.

Wise words Monkeyg! Now we're getting some real substance added into this question.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I can't include you in my conversations if you're going to be silly. Maybe you would like to reconsider?

Although that offer sounds "tempting" and your company would undoubtedly be highly "entertaining", I'm quite happy if you leave me out of your "conversations."

 

[Donald H]

Except we all know he'll pull that stunt, and it will be irrelevant;: the rule of law still applies. $Everyonw expects him to go down that road.

Except there is no reason for them to go down that road, and SCOTUS justices hate being dragged into the electoral processes, as arbiters. Conservative justices are above all insistent that they are there solely to judge on points oif law and consitution - and they have already given Trfump two bloody noses, on precisely those grounds, in the past year.

except we don't know any such thing, simply ecausze policing in the USA is hugely decentralised, so almost impossible to nationally co-ordinate in that manner


No.
They are unsupported by evidence, political context, precedent, historical context, logic oranything even slightly ap[roaching sense. By anything in fact, opther than gut anti-American bile, and paranoia.

Thank you for your opinion and your contribution to adding some life to this thread. Only please slow down a bit with your typing so your message isn't lost in garbled rhetoric.

 

[8ball]

There's not much evidence of 'shy' Trump voters (1, 2, 3) , and that effect should be accounted for in the polls.

Of course polls can be wrong but Biden's lead (at the moment) is very large, the polls would be seriously out for him not to have a very considerable lead over Trump at present.

Fair enough. I know I'd be embarassed to admit to it.

 

[Donald H]

Although that offer sounds "tempting" and your company would undoubtedly be highly "entertaining", I'm quite happy if you leave me out of your "conversations."

Your behaviour will be the deciding factor dear.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Oh god. Who is this???

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Your behaviour will be the deciding factor dear.

 

[8ball]

Your behaviour will be the deciding factor dear.

I think your behaviour may be the deciding factor over something or other if you carry on like this.

 

[bimble]

Your behaviour will be the deciding factor dear.

You’ve let yourself down, the absurd condescension and bluster was comical but calling women dear is not the way to keep a tidy classroom here.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Your behaviour will be the deciding factor dear.

Dear?

You condescending twat.

 

[scifisam]

I can't believe people* are voting option 1, that Trump will win the popular vote, when he lost it last time by about 3 million.

OK, there's some doubt about the electoral college outcome, but I can't see there's anyway he'll win the popular vote.

* With the exception of Marty1, who seems so far up Trump's arse, that I expect him to crawl out of his mouth when the results are declared.

Like killerB said - it's a pessimistic prediction, not what anyone except a couple of people hope will happen. I think it's possible he could win the popular vote, but I wouldn't be surprised if he lost it again, either.

Bush's polling was better than Trump's, but he had fewer "shy" voters than Trump will. The very vocal rabid fanbase are not the only ones who like Trump. Kamala Harris should, theoretically, gain extra votes from non-whites (she's unlikely to gain many extra votes from women) but in some communities there is a ridiculous level of fear of black people having power.

 

[frogwoman]

A lot of people don't like Harris because of her record as a prosecutor tho tbf

 

[Streathamite]

Thank you for your opinion and your contribution to adding some life to this thread. Only please slow down a bit with your typing so your message isn't lost in garbled rhetoric.

And thank you for completely, totally and utterly failing to engage, in any way, with the - perfect;ly comprehensible - substance of what I said.

 

[Donald H]

You’ve let yourself down, the absurd condescension and bluster was comical but calling women dear is not the way to keep a tidy classroom here.

Good point! It's not my typical nature to do that but the situation called for an insult in return. And her latest 'FU' embroidery has settled the question for me now.

 

[redsquirrel]

There'll be a lot of people who hate Trump but also like Biden, so will vote for a third candidate, like they did last time.

So Trump's vote won't be split, but Biden's will. I wouldn't be surprised if he increased his vote share.

The enthusiasm/shy voter stuff has been dealt with already. The most popular 3rd party candidate last time was the Libertarian. 3rd party votes were mostly irrelevant but if anything the support (at least on the national level) was taken from Trump not Clinton.

People seem to have forgotten what the Dubya presidency was like. Loads of people were predicting he didn't have a hope of a second term, but he won reasonably securely.

Did they? Who?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Good point! It's not my typical nature to do that but the situation called for an insult in return. And her latest 'FU' embroidery has settled the question for me now.

Ah cool. If we all tell you to fuck off, will you put us all on ignore?

Fuck off.

 

[Donald H]

And thank you for completely, totally and utterly failing to engage, in any way, with the - perfect;ly comprehensible - substance of what I said.

You're not getting yourself unowned Streath, you're just making matters worse.

 

[campanula]

I honestly don't have a clue. I loathe Biden and Harris almost as much as Trump but a gentle querying on Ravelry (senile sex-pest capitalist arse-licker) almost got me banned so, at least amongst US knitters, it really is anyone but Trump. I am sure that there is still a sizeable portion of those who are keen to stomp on a liberal while being sneakily evasive regarding the outcome of their ballots. I have been afflicted with a sense of ennui and unreality myself, being unable to summon any enthusiasm for the whole electoral charade (although some of that is a deflection from despair given 4+ years of Tory filth). The class struggle is not being fought in parliament nor the 3 branches of the federal US govt....but in the streets, homes and workplaces of ordinary people.

 

[scifisam]

The enthusiasm/shy voter stuff has been dealt with already. The most popular 3rd party candidate last time was the Libertarian. 3rd party votes were mostly irrelevant but if anything the support (at least on the national level) was taken from Trump not Clinton.

Did they? Who?

Do you seriously expect me to name names from 2004?

"Dealt with already." Right, that's put me in my place, apologies for daring to post.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Good point! It's not my typical nature to do that but the situation called for an insult in return. And her latest 'FU' embroidery has settled the question for me now.

Promise?

 

[redsquirrel]

Do you seriously expect me to name names from 2004?

"Dealt with already." Right, that's put me in my place, apologies for daring to post.

Post stuff, but if you are going to make claims that are not only not supported by the evidence but where there is considerable evidence in the opposite direction then don't expect people not to pick you up on it.

The irony is that you're doing the exact type of thing that Trump (and Johnson) get criticised for, posting reckons as facts. I mean LBJ is right in 2004 the polling was for a close election with Bush slightly favoured - which was pretty much the result.

 

[Streathamite]

You're not getting yourself unowned Streath, you're just making matters worse.

You diddn't 'own me' at all.
You completely cowarded out of engaging with the argument of my posts, precisely because you knew you had zero counter-argument that wouldn't get laughed right out of court.
So instead you decided to bottele it, by picking holes on spelling and punctuation - a total white flag response.
Oh fuck it, you're going on ignore. You're too much of a complete arsehole, and an absolute fucking idiot, to bother with. In all your posts there has not been one thing worth reading

 

[AmateurAgitator]

I voted no fucking idea because really anything can happen and I think chaos will ensue whatever happens.

 

[killer b]

Post stuff, but if you are going to make claims that are not only not supported by the evidence but where there is considerable evidence in the opposite direction then don't expect people not to pick you up on it.

The irony is that you're doing the exact type of thing that Trump (and Johnson) get criticised for, posting reckons as facts. I mean LBJ is right in 2004 the polling was for a close election with Bush slightly favoured - which was pretty much the result.

mostly leaning towards Bush winning.

https://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/who-do-you-honestly-believe-will-win-the-next-us-presidential-election.11586/

 

[redsquirrel]

mostly leaning towards Bush winning.

https://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/who-do-you-honestly-believe-will-win-the-next-us-presidential-election.11586/

Ta

 

[Smokeandsteam]

On what hard evidence do you base that assumption? Given, after all, that he was elected senator six times, vice-preesident twice, and that - above all - all then most importnat polls are running his way?

The evidence is as follows:

1. Candidates who run from the centre don’t win anymore. Reports of the demise of populism are mainly the stuff of liberal fantasy. Does the pandemic scare people back to flaccid neo-liberalism? We’ll see
2. Biden’s appeal is essentially the same as Clinton’s. Both are insiders, both are establishment pols. Both reject change and present themselves as better managers of a system that voters have had enough of
3. The Dems will want to keep Biden covered up for sure. But as some point he’ll need to subject to public scrutiny. Let’s be honest here - he’s not a well man. To put it mildly. The right and media are going to savage him and highlight his gaffes and frailness endlessly.
4. The dem bounce looks over. Have a look at the latest polling especially in the states where the poster I was replying to was predicting a Biden walkover. The lead is less than firm. I’d argue that his two VP wins were more explainable by his running mate by the way.

At this point calling the result is for guessers and clairvoyants. But, this idea of a Biden landslide (which is what I was replying to), is a nonsense.

 

[AmateurAgitator]

Does anyone think that this could all slide into civil war? I'm not sure myself but chaos will occur I reckon.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

1. Candidates who run from the centre don’t win anymore. Reports of the demise of populism are mainly the stuff of liberal fantasy. Does the pandemic scare people back to flaccid neo-liberalism? We’ll see

Er. There are tons of examples of centrists winning around the world. In the US, Obama won twice as a 'centrist'. In the rest of the world, well, where to start? Macron. Merkel. Both essentially centrists.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

At this point calling the result is for guessers and clairvoyants. But, this idea of a Biden landslide (which is what I was replying to), is a nonsense.

It's not nonsense. It's what would happen if today's polls were replicated in the actual vote. Of course, they probably won't be, but that doesn't make it nonsense.

I would say the plausible range of results right now ranges from a big Biden win to a wafer-thin, popular-vote-losing, probably dodgy Trump win.

 

[redsquirrel]

Does anyone think that this could all slide into civil war? I'm not sure myself but chaos will occur I reckon.

Proper civil war no chance. Some disorder and groups fighting possibly, depending on how close the result is.

I would say the plausible range of results right now ranges from a big Biden win to a wafer-thin, popular-vote-losing, probably dodgy Trump win.

Yep, I'd concur with that.