Who does Urban think (not hope) will win the November US Presidential Election? (The Poll)

[Streathamite]

No, that's true. And Biden's opponent is Trump. I was just addressing the question of whether it was difficult to actively dislike Biden. Biden's politics are horrible. If it was my call, I'd say Biden's main asset is being Not Trump. But what do I know? I mean, who looks at Trump and thinks "safe pair of perfectly normal-sized hands"? Apparently millions.

That's why I voted No Fucking Idea in the poll.

Ok, fair point. You're a radical leftist, ditto me. I loathe his centrist politics - he's basically yer standard issue Old Tyme Democrat streetpol hack (think: richard daley). Agree with you that his main plus is he ain't the Orange caudillo

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Conventional wisdom would put Trump in deep trouble. The FT has a state result thing you can play around with. I just had a little go. It does look like most or all of the 'rust belt' will return to the Dems. On latest polls, it's hard to see anything other than a big Biden win. When messing with the results, I found it pretty much impossible to get Trump over the line without Florida. Biden can win without Florida, don't think Trump can. That's about as much as I can say.

Biden vs Trump: US presidential election poll tracker

* just a bit of fun *

Biden will almost certainly win the popular vote, with huge majorities in places like California. But as we know, that isn't enough. Add in dirty tricks, and who knows? It doesn't look good for Trump in Florida atm, but Republican governors have been known to help out their presidential candidates before...

 

[Yossarian]

What's your point?

Adding more reasons why people can easily dislike Biden, should probably have quoted Streathamite's post instead of yours.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

What's your point?

Maybe to do with turning out the vote? That's surely going to be crucial. Those who like Trump are probably beyond hope. Those who hate both to such a degree that they don't vote could harm Biden's chances.

In campaigns now, the likes of Cambridge Analytica put as much effort into persuading opposition supporters not to vote as they do into persuading their supporters to turn out.

 

[chilango]

Having seen the degree to which soi dissant centrists will contort themselves defending Johnson "because Corbyn" despite everything I'm pretty certain Trump will win one or the other. If he wants it.

 

[Streathamite]

Biden wins popular vote, winner of EC never determined after court orders halt the counting of postal ballots in battleground states 14 days after Election Day, Trump declared winner after Supreme Court backs the administration's challenges to the voting system.

Actually, the courts intervening to that extent is unlikely - either Federal lower courts, or SCOTUS. They hate being dragged into the electoral process, which is what they saw Gore as trying to do to them in 2000

 

[Flavour]

you lot are forgetting how horribly trump has handled coronavirus. there's nearly 200,000 dead in the US. tens of millions unemployed. it's entirely possible he'd have won without covid but honestly i can't see him retaining even 80% of the votes he got last time.

 

[Streathamite]

Having seen the degree to which soi dissant centrists will contort themselves defending Johnson "because Corbyn" despite everything I'm pretty certain Trump will win one or the other. If he wants it.

I don't think comparing the US like-for-like to the UK really works here

 

[Cloo]

He'll use plenty of dirty tricks to block votes for his opponents in swing states (especially from underprivileged voters), though he might not even need to do that in order to win, then win by cheating, then still claim the other side cheated but he still won because he's so amazing.

Sadly there are plenty in America who see his continued abuse (verbal or literal) and derision towards people they don't like - black people, immigrants, women, liberals etc - as political victory, even though he has done fuck all to actually help aforesaid haters, and will vote for him because they enjoy having a president who 'sticks it' to their 'enemies'

 

[Idris2002]

If Trump loses, I think one outcome is that he causes just enough trouble for Biden (or his handlers) to grant him a Jerry Ford style pardon, in return for handing back the keys to the White House Trumpenbunker.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

you lot are forgetting how horribly trump has handled coronavirus. there's nearly 200,000 dead in the US. tens of millions unemployed. it's entirely possible he'd have won without covid but honestly i can't see him retaining even 80% of the votes he got last time.

He could be wiped out. He could conceivably lose both Florida and Texas the way things are going. But knowing that he knows that, all we can really be sure of is that Trump will go nasty, as nasty as he can. That's why I think we're still in 'Who knows' territory. The credibility of the US electoral system will be on the line.

 

[Streathamite]

Having seen the degree to which soi dissant centrists will contort themselves defending Johnson "because Corbyn" despite everything I'm pretty certain Trump will win one or the other. If he wants it.

also, portraying Biden as a marxist bogeyman won't work, which is why they're trying plan B: trying to paint him as the prisoner of crazed far left zealots. Don't think that will work, either.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I still think Trump will win. If you look at the polls, he's closing it up a little bit with Biden and there's still plenty of time before the election.

Even if Trump loses, he'll be on OAN making as much trouble for his successor as he possibly can. He'll be a burden to the country for the rest of his life, and possibly his children's lives.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Biden will win and it will be a landslide victory.

Specifically I think the Dems will take michigan, ohio, pennsylvania, florida and north carolina

That is one scenario that won’t be happening.

Biden is close to unelectable. The polarising ‘culture war’ will continue to drive support to Trump- which already appears to be trickling through in some of the ‘rust belt’ states you think Biden will stroll home in. If the pandemic is perceived to be under control, and is simultaneously popularly held to be the cause of the economic downturn, then all bets are off

 

[maomao]

Pity about the million casualties they'll take once they move in that "direction", mind.

Dunno about a million. I'm thinking more of widespread strikes, civil disobedience and attempts by some states to seccede. Probably less casualties than if Trump loses by a nose and the three percenters start shooting people.

If Trump wins easily and takes it as a mandate on his handling of Covid then they could lose a million from Covid by the end of next year anyway.

 

[chilango]

I don't think comparing the US like-for-like to the UK really works here

Sure.

...it just feeds my pessimism!

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

also, portraying Biden as a marxist bogeyman won't work, which is why they're trying plan B: trying to paint him as the prisoner of crazed far left zealots. Don't think that will work, either.

Unfortunately, I don't think his hardcore supporters really care what the word "Marxism" means. For them its just a catch-all for anything they don't happen to like at the moment.

 

[Pickman's model]

Biden strikes me as a much weaker candidate than Hillary Clinton, perhaps because I hear too much Trump propaganda about him, so I'm really not convinced that he will be able to win a majority in the Electoral College, even if he wins the popular vote. I'm also fairly convinced that at least some of the Republican voter suppression plots will succeed, giving Trump a significant advantage.


Do you share my pessimism(Marty1 are you creaming yourself at the mere thought of it)? Also, will the Democrats be as accepting as they were last time, if he wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college? If it all starts going tits up would the military step in?

i can't vote in your poll as i think both trump and biden will claim the popular vote. there will be legal shenanigans as both candidates go to court about the electoral college, which will be tied. this will lead to chaos, followed by an attempted coup d'etat, leading to further chaos followed by a provisional revolutionary government. but you only allow three options in your poll.

 

[scifisam]

I'm fairly certain Trump will win the electoral college; the popular vote could go either way, but he's in with a string chance there too.

His supporters are rabid and there really is nothing he could do to make them not vote for him - and there are lots of them. They are also much more likely to make the effort to go and vote, and help others go and vote (drive elderly relatives there, that sort of thing) because of their belief in him. Then there are those who vote republican come what may, and those who don't like Trump but like Pence (not many, but there are some religious types who do) and conspiraloons who don't actually like a lot of Trump's policies, but have bought into the various Qanon type theories.

It doesn't really matter that the economy's fucked, the virus isn't under control in any meaningful way, or anything you might expect people to give as a logical reason for not voting Trump. A lot of the time people don't actually vote for logical reasons - hence working class people voting for parties that hate them.

On the democrat side, Biden's support is a lot weaker. I mean, it's reasonably good in a normal year, but he doesn't have as many of the same insanely worshipful fans. And some people believe he's a paedophile sex offender - but, weirdly, don't generally seem to care that Trump definitely is a sex offender. Then there are those who hate Kamala Harris, for being a woman or black or Asian. Women don't necessarily vote preferentially for women. Plus some people believe Biden "stole" the nomination from Sanders.

There'll be a lot of people who hate Trump but also like Biden, so will vote for a third candidate, like they did last time.

So Trump's vote won't be split, but Biden's will. I wouldn't be surprised if he increased his vote share.

People seem to have forgotten what the Dubya presidency was like. Loads of people were predicting he didn't have a hope of a second term, but he won reasonably securely.

 

[Streathamite]

Unfortunately, I don't think his hardcore supporters really care what the word "Marxism" means. For them its just a catch-all for anything they don't happen to like at the moment.

sure, agreed, but a) his hardcore supporters - the Trump cultists - were never, ever gonna vote for anyone other than Trump under any circumstances, and b) there's not enough of them to win the election all on their ownsome. That's down to the non-hardcore volters in the swing states, and it's down to how disenchanted they are with Trump0 after this dreadful year.

 

[krtek a houby]

Trump will win again, build the mile high wall and ally himself with man eating alien crocodiles to keep the dissenting masses in line. The judges will back him up, otherwise he'll have them pickled and replaced with a fish.

 

[UrbaneFox]

If the orange twat loses (hopefully) it'd be interesting to see if he turns up at the handover in January, or whether he'll just go off on one in his senile petulant way.

No, if Trump loses he's going to jail.
He's going to put up a very dirty fight. He may even try to escape the US when the big count is underway. It will be better than OJ Simpson's escape.

 

[tim]

No, if Trump loses he's going to jail.
He's going to put up a very dirty fight. He may even try to escape the US when the big count is underway. It will be better than OJ Simpson's escape.

He certainly won't go to jail, whatever he is convicted of Biden will pardon him, because Biden is part of the establishment and also because he won't want to set a precedent for any vengeful republicans that might follow him.

 

[tim]

No, if Trump loses he's going to jail.
He's going to put up a very dirty fight. He may even try to escape the US when the big count is underway. It will be better than OJ Simpson's escape.

He won't have to escape while the count is on as he will still be President and in a position to react. He won't leave office until the 20th of January which gives him plenty of time to dig in.

 

[izz]

I think Trump will win because although there are definitely limits to human intelligence there are no such limits to human stupidity, and there are enough people in the US, I believe, who take his word as gospel and his word is that if he isn't re-elected it'll be Armageddon.

 

[PTK]

There will be a loser and a winner, and the bookies will be happy.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Trump will win again, build the mile high wall and ally himself with man eating alien crocodiles to keep the dissenting masses in line. The judges will back him up, otherwise he'll have them pickled and replaced with a fish.

If Trump wins, I might be investing heavily in high walls and man eating alien crocodiles myself.

 

[krtek a houby]

There will be a loser and a winner, and the bookies will be happy.

No matter who gets in, as ever, the people will lose.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think Trump will win because although there are definitely limits to human intelligence there are no such limits to human stupidity, and there are enough people in the US, I believe, who take his word as gospel and his word is that if he isn't re-elected it'll be Armageddon.

many of his voters are relying on his re-election to hasten armageddon

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm fairly certain Trump will win the electoral college; the popular vote could go either way, but he's in with a string chance there too.

His supporters are rabid and there really is nothing he could do to make them not vote for him - and there are lots of them. They are also much more likely to make the effort to go and vote, and help others go and vote (drive elderly relatives there, that sort of thing) because of their belief in him. Then there are those who vote republican come what may, and those who don't like Trump but like Pence (not many, but there are some religious types who do) and conspiraloons who don't actually like a lot of Trump's policies, but have bought into the various Qanon type theories.

It doesn't really matter that the economy's fucked, the virus isn't under control in any meaningful way, or anything you might expect people to give as a logical reason for not voting Trump. A lot of the time people don't actually vote for logical reasons - hence working class people voting for parties that hate them.

On the democrat side, Biden's support is a lot weaker. I mean, it's reasonably good in a normal year, but he doesn't have as many of the same insanely worshipful fans. And some people believe he's a paedophile sex offender - but, weirdly, don't generally seem to care that Trump definitely is a sex offender. Then there are those who hate Kamala Harris, for being a woman or black or Asian. Women don't necessarily vote preferentially for women. Plus some people believe Biden "stole" the nomination from Sanders.

There'll be a lot of people who hate Trump but also like Biden, so will vote for a third candidate, like they did last time.

So Trump's vote won't be split, but Biden's will. I wouldn't be surprised if he increased his vote share.

People seem to have forgotten what the Dubya presidency was like. Loads of people were predicting he didn't have a hope of a second term, but he won reasonably securely.

Looking at polling for that election, Bush was ahead in the polls by the start of September. So Trump is a very long way behind him at the moment. Bush also enjoyed some 'rally behind the flag' effect from his disastrous wars and 'war on terror'. Even handled badly, a national crisis can be a positive for a leader. That's where Trump has potentially fucked it. Even with bad death numbers, he could have come out of this Covid-19 year with an enhanced reputation among enough people. Boris Johnson was more popular than ever as a thousand people a day were dying of C-19 here. Makes you despair really.