Who does Urban think (not hope) will win the November US Presidential Election? (The Poll)

[Streathamite]

so's mine, my dude.

well yes, OK, I don't doubt that, but I thought it worth backing up why I think it will be close, but Biden's

 

[ohmyliver]

I think it's likely that it's going to be a convincing victory for Biden. Likely, not certain.

I also think that if there's any way for Trump to claim the result is invalid, he'll take it.

 

[Streathamite]

FWIW though, I found this article by Richard Seymour a couple of months ago pretty convincing (C&P'd cause it's a paid for article on his patreon)

Th\at's a pretty good article, hard to disagree with much of what he says

 

[killer b]

well yes, OK, I don't doubt that, but I thought it worth backing up why I think it will be close, but Biden's

right, but right here:

Right now, in terms of opinion polls, he is ahead in texas (once inconceivable for any Democrat whose initaials weren't LBJ), ahead in Arizona and florida, and in a very comfortable, even commanding lead in Michigan, pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

you're backing up my point, not yours.

 

[skyscraper101]

Biden FTW

(famous last words)

Notwithstanding that it's usually tougher to go up against the incumbent, but he hasn't attracted nearly as much flack as Clinton did, and she still won 2% more of the popular vote in 2016. Add to that the Russian meddling won't be nearly as effective this time round, and Trump won't be able to as convincingly make any of those outlandish promises like his Mexico wall or locking up Clinton. Even his most ardent fans have to accept he never had nor ever will the goods to deliver on that.

 

[Donald H]

Too bad that Americans weren't first disqualified from voting in this poll. There can't be much objectivity in their choices.

 

[Yossarian]

I didn't know there were as many as 64 reasonably possible combinations that could lead to an electoral college tie - apparently if that happens, the president is chosen by the House, but the vote goes by state delegation, not by representative. With the Republicans in the majority of 26 state delegations, that would give Trump a narrow victory.

Electoral College Tie Combinations - 270toWin

Find combinations of states that will lead to a 269-269 electoral college tie in the 2024 presidential election.

www.270towin.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

Too bad that Americans weren't first disqualified from voting in this poll. There can't be much objectivity in their choices.

Oh Christ, here we go.

 

[Streathamite]

Too bad that Americans weren't first disqualified from voting in this poll. There can't be much objectivity in their choices.

Oh great, you've showed up and this thread is now officially fucked.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Too bad that Americans weren't first disqualified from voting in this poll. There can't be much objectivity in their choices.

 

[maomao]

Too bad that Americans weren't first disqualified from voting in this poll. There can't be much objectivity in their choices.

Why? What country are you from?

 

[redsquirrel]

I really can't see how people are predicting Biden will lose the popular vote. He's not just polling more ahead of Trump than Clinton ever did his polling is really strong in historical terms (1, 2). In addition, where is Trump going to pick up voters? He's pretty much maxed out his vote, whereas there is plenty of strong evidence - 2018 midterms, polling - that people who were unwilling to vote for Clinton in 2016 are willing to vote Biden (or against Trump) in 2020.

Now things can change between now and November and it's very possible that Biden will not win the popular vote by 8% but I think it's looking very good that he will win it by more than Clinton did. And if that is the case it does become very hard to Trump to win the EC. And some key states are moving towards the Democrats.

So I predict that Biden will win the popular vote and he will win it by more than Clinton and that he will probably become president.

 

[frogwoman]

I have a feeling that Biden will narrowly win the EC and the popular vote but trump won't accept the result.

 

[Donald H]

Oh great, you've showed up and this thread is now officially fucked.

The poll provided by the OP was carelessly presented in that it failed to provide other more likely options. Most of all, the choice of choosing the possibility of Trump losing and then declaring victory.

We already know the Scotus will choose the winner based on it's biased politics and we should know by now that the police will likely become the agents of the fascist dictator that proclaims himself to be the winner.

These are just a couple of my considerations when I chose Trump as being the winner.

Do you think they are valid Streath?

 

[spring-peeper]

The poll provided by the OP was carelessly presented in that it failed to provide other more likely options. Most of all, the choice of choosing the possibility of Trump losing and then declaring victory.

We already know the Scotus will choose the winner based on it's biased politics and we should know by now that the police will likely become the agents of the fascist dictator that proclaims himself to be the winner.

These are just a couple of my considerations when I chose Trump as being the winner.

Do you think they are valid Streath?

If you do not like the poll, set one up yourself.

 

[Donald H]

View attachment 228089

I can't include you in my conversations if you're going to be silly. Maybe you would like to reconsider?

 

[redsquirrel]

Are those people that believe Biden will lose the popular basing this on there being a big shift in movement to Trump between now and November or that the polling data is (very) wrong?

If the former I agree it is possible (though IMO unlikely), if the latter then what's the justification for that belief? For all the 'the polls got it wrong in 2016' the fact is that US national polling is really rather good (state polling can be more iffy).

 

[8ball]

Are those people that believe Biden will lose the popular basing this on there being a big shift in movement to Trump between now and November or that the polling data is (very) wrong?

If the former I agree it is possible (though IMO unlikely), if the latter then what's the justification for that belief?

I think people being embarassed to say they are voting for Trump is at least as plausible as a late swing.

 

[killer b]

Are those people that believe Biden will lose the popular basing this on there being a big shift in movement to Trump between now and November or that the polling data is (very) wrong?

It's mostly based on pessimistic reckons.

 

[PursuedByBears]

I can't include you in my conversations if you're going to be silly. Maybe you would like to reconsider?

You might want to remove that pole from your arse if you want to stick around here.

 

[killer b]

You might want to remove that pole from your arse if you want to stick around here.

come now. a pole in the arse is practically a condition of membership.

 

[redsquirrel]

I think people being embarassed to say they are voting for Trump is at least as plausible as a late swing.

There's not much evidence of 'shy' Trump voters (1, 2, 3) , and that effect should be accounted for in the polls.

Of course polls can be wrong but Biden's lead (at the moment) is very large, the polls would be seriously out for him not to have a very considerable lead over Trump at present.

 

[frogwoman]

There's plenty of people who won't be able to bring themselves to vote for either.

 

[frogwoman]

I still think Biden will win the popular vote but Trump is going to try to hold onto power. Although he probably won't succeed

 

[redsquirrel]

It's mostly based on pessimistic reckons.

Yeah, well that's it isn't it (paging kabbes for his favourite sketch).

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

A clothespeg election victory to Biden would be a good result - a la Chirac over Le Pen. Don't know how much that could take off in the US?

Well I doubt it would happen in such a clear cut way, but then it doesn't really need to. A relatively small number in a few states would do it.

 

[Argonia]

I've got an awful feeling that Trump is going to win this. It's an awful feeling.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I think it's likely that it's going to be a convincing victory for Biden. Likely, not certain.

I also think that if there's any way for Trump to claim the result is invalid, he'll take it.

I think he'll definitely try. The question I guess is whether he can get the backing to pull it off if he tries to overturn it. America is so fucked it's tempting to think he would but then he's already been slapped down by the Republicans in Congress when he floated the idea of delaying and they're exactly the sort of people he'd need onside. However mad they are trying to throw out election results would be a big step for them.

 

[Donald H]

If you do not like the poll, set one up yourself.

No, this one fills the requirements and I can make people aware of the inadequacies, as I've already started to do. Thank you for your return to civility and so let's see if we can keep it that way. My opinions are really no reason for being spammed on this board.
We Canadians carry a lot of weight in our opinions. Probably at least as much as any other country in the world.
We will always have to pay a price for our opinions when they contrast social conscience with political or military aggression.

 

[Streathamite]

The poll provided by the OP was carelessly presented in that it failed to provide other more likely options. Most of all, the choice of choosing the possibility of Trump losing and then declaring victory.

Except we all know he'll pull that stunt, and it will be irrelevant;: the rule of law still applies. Everyone expects him to go down that road.

We already know the Scotus will choose the winner based on it's biased politics

Except there is no reason for them to go down that road, and SCOTUS justices hate being dragged into the electoral processes, as arbiters. Conservative justices are above all insistent that they are there solely to judge on points of law and consitution - and they have already given Trump two bloody noses, on precisely those grounds, in the past year.

and we should know by now that the police will likely become the agents of the fascist dictator that proclaims himself to be the winner.

except we don't know any such thing, simply ecausze policing in the USA is hugely decentralised, so almost impossible to nationally co-ordinate in that manner

These are just a couple of my considerations when I chose Trump as being the winner.

Do you think they are valid Streath?

No.
They are unsupported by evidence, political context, precedent, historical context, logic or anything even slightly aproaching sense. By anything in fact, other than gut anti-American bile, and paranoia.