Who does Urban think (not hope) will win the November US Presidential Election? (The Poll)

[Smokeandsteam]

Er. There are tons of examples of centrists winning around the world. In the US, Obama won twice as a 'centrist'. In the rest of the world, well, where to start? Macron. Merkel. Both essentially centrists.

A truly centrist era

 

[Smokeandsteam]

It's not nonsense. It's what would happen if today's polls were replicated in the actual vote. Of course, they probably won't be, but that doesn't make it nonsense.

Thanks for that

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Trump isn’t going to “win”, but he will still be in the White House this time next year.

 

[Streathamite]

The evidence is as follows:

1. Candidates who run from the centre don’t win anymore. Reports of the demise of populism are mainly the stuff of liberal fantasy. Does the pandemic scare people back to flaccid neo-liberalism? We’ll see
2. Biden’s appeal is essentially the same as Clinton’s. Both are insiders, both are establishment pols. Both reject change and present themselves as better managers of a system that voters have had enough of
3. The Dems will want to keep Biden covered up for sure. But as some point he’ll need to subject to public scrutiny. Let’s be honest here - he’s not a well man. To put it mildly. The right and media are going to savage him and highlight his gaffes and frailness endlessly.
4. The dem bounce looks over. Have a look at the latest polling especially in the states where the poster I was replying to was predicting a Biden walkover. The lead is less than firm. I’d argue that his two VP wins were more explainable by his running mate by the way.

At this point calling the result is for guessers and clairvoyants. But, this idea of a Biden landslide (which is what I was replying to), is a nonsense.

Sure, and I never thought a landslide was even slightly possible, for my p;art. I agree Biden's a pisspoor candidate, whose two pluses are
a) he's not Hillary (believe it or not, she carried huge baggage, and a massive anti-vote, encompassing everyone from berniebros so enraged by the DNC stitch-up they refused to vote for her, to people who bou8ght trump's populist BS)
and
b) he's not Trump.
having said that, his public appearances and his remote ones hyave both been nowhere near as bad as I expected. And his polls in the states that count are holding up.
so what i was really querying it, is why is he 'close to unelectable'? I don't see 'unelectable' explained here?
e2a: I don't see 'un electab;le' explained or substantiated in your reply to me

 

[8ball]

Trump isn’t going to “win”, but he will still be in the White House this time next year.

How do you see this panning out?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

A truly centrist era

What?

Sorry, you've lost me. Simple point is that 'centrists' can and do win, both in the US and elsewhere. And populists like Trump can and do win as well.

How about you reply to what people say rather than some rubbish you think they think?

 

[weltweit]

I think Biden should win, because Trump has made a meal of his turn, but I wonder about Biden and how well he will come across in the coming campaign. I won't have time to follow it in detail but it will be interesting to see how the campaigns work out.

 

[Ax^]

You're not getting yourself unowned Streath, you're just making matters worse.

got a suggestion for an avvi for you sir

 

[Cloo]

I think scifisam is spot on

Does anyone think that this could all slide into civil war? I'm not sure myself but chaos will occur I reckon.

I said the moment Trump was elected that he was likely to be the first POTUS of the moden era to order troops to fire on his own citizens - he hasn't quite got there yet, but if he does that could be the tinderbox moment. Though with the militias on the side of the oppressive government

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

How do you see this panning out?

A mix of lawyers, chaos and guns.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

What?

Sorry, you've lost me. Simple point is that 'centrists' can and do win, both in the US and elsewhere. And populists like Trump can and do win as well.

How about you reply to what people say rather than some rubbish you think they think?

How about you write something worth replying to?

Sure, and I never thought a landslide was even slightly possible, for my p;art. I agree Biden's a pisspoor candidate, whose two pluses are
a) he's not Hillary (believe it or not, she carried huge baggage, and a massive anti-vote, encompassing everyone from berniebros so enraged by the DNC stitch-up they refused to vote for her, to people who bou8ght trump's populist BS)
and
b) he's not Trump.
having said that, his public appearances and his remote ones hyave both been nowhere near as bad as I expected. And his polls in the states that count are holding up.
so what i was really querying it, is why is he 'close to unelectable'? I don't see 'unelectable' explained here?
e2a: I don't see 'un electab;le' explained or substantiated in your reply to me

Fair point re Clinton. I’ll reply properly to the rest of this tomorrow. Because, other than the fact that he’s not ACTUALLY Clinton, he is Clinton in every other way. The politics, the machine approach, the third way, the section of the elite he represents, the assumptions that have been tested and lost. But I’ll reply properly tomorrow

 

[magneze]

Perhaps not civil war but in the event of a disputed result could states align with whichever president they wanted? So, both win but everyone actually loses.

 

[scifisam]

Post stuff, but if you are going to make claims that are not only not supported by the evidence but where there is considerable evidence in the opposite direction then don't expect people not to pick you up on it.

The irony is that you're doing the exact type of thing that Trump (and Johnson) get criticised for, posting reckons as facts. I mean LBJ is right in 2004 the polling was for a close election with Bush slightly favoured - which was pretty much the result.

No, I was posting my opinions, not claiming them as facts at all. That's much closer to what you're doing with your lovely patronising phrases such as "it's already been dealt with." But I won't be so insulting as to compare you to Trump or Johnson.

And in the post you were quoting I acknowledged that Bush was polling much better than Trump is, so I don't know why you feel the need to explain that to me.

I'm speculating, same as everyone else. Kinda thought that was the point of the thread. If the debate is over and done with and Biden is definitely going to win, maybe we should just close the thread now.

 

[redsquirrel]

No, I was posting my opinions, not claiming them as facts at all.

Hang on, none of the claims you made in post 49 were prefaced with 'I think' or 'in my view' you said

His supporters are rabid and there really is nothing he could do to make them not vote for him - and there are lots of them. They are also much more likely to make the effort to go and vote, and help others go and vote (drive elderly relatives there, that sort of thing) because of their belief in him.

On the democrat side, Biden's support is a lot weaker. I mean, it's reasonably good in a normal year, but he doesn't have as many of the same insanely worshipful fans.

So Trump's vote won't be split, but Biden's will.

People seem to have forgotten what the Dubya presidency was like. Loads of people were predicting he didn't have a hope of a second term, but he won reasonably securely.

Those are not phrased as speculation but as facts. If you're saying that they are just your views fine, and there's no problem with posting speculation or views but most of those claims are either not accurate or dubious.

 

[killer b]

Hang on, none of the claims you made in post 49 were prefaced with 'I think' or 'in my view' you said

Ah come on man, everything everyone posts here is in their opinion. Give over with that.

 

[Marty1]

Biden strikes me as a much weaker candidate than Hillary Clinton, perhaps because I hear too much Trump propaganda about him, so I'm really not convinced that he will be able to win a majority in the Electoral College, even if he wins the popular vote. I'm also fairly convinced that at least some of the Republican voter suppression plots will succeed, giving Trump a significant advantage.


Do you share my pessimism(Marty1 are you creaming yourself at the mere thought of it)? Also, will the Democrats be as accepting as they were last time, if he wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college? If it all starts going tits up would the military step in?

TheTransition Integrity Project group have already war-gamed the possible scenarios out and if they prove to be correct - it isn’t going to be pretty.

“All of our scenarios ended in both street-level violence and political impasse,” said Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown law professor

A bipartisan group secretly gathered to game out a contested Trump-Biden election. It wasn’t pretty - The Boston Globe

The group explored this scenario: What if President Trump refuses to concede a loss, as he publicly hinted recently he might do? How far could he go to preserve his power?

www.google.com

Voting by mail is likely going to delay an accurate result which could cause chaos if both parties start claiming premature victory.

Biden has the liberal msm on his side, Trump has the advantage of being the incumbent and perhaps a silent majority of voters including jumping ship dem voters who want someone in who is more law and order based due to the regional conflicts that have flared up and are ongoing

 

[Humberto]

I don't see why centrists can't win. It could be that people will cheer and clamour for a return to the old 'business as usual' this time around simply because Trump will have hurt and betrayed so many.

 

[Streathamite]

, other than the fact that he’s not ACTUALLY Clinton, he is Clinton in every other way. The politics, the machine approach, the third way, the section of the elite he represents, the assumptions that have been tested and lost. But I’ll reply properly tomorrow

OK, I really haven't explained myself properly here. I agree entirely that he represents exactly the same things as HRC, that politically he's coming from an almost identical place on the spectrum.
I didn't mean that: I meant the personal differences, the people they are, how they come across, how various different groups of people perceive them. And unfortunately, in a Presidential election, that affects the result (which is also why Al gore lost to a Republican who was vastly intellectually his inferior; Gore came across as a total jerk).

The problem with HRC, is that a huge range of people dislike her personally. This is partly plain and simple sexism. There's a certain type of, umm, robustly traditional American (mostly, but not solely men), who take a look at HRC, and they see; smug, selfconfident lady lawyer from the big bad sinful city to the North, who's smarter than them, better educated than them, better groomed than them, wealthier than them, more articulate than them, more successful than them, and who knows it, and who absolutely refuses to conform to traditional wife-and-mom stereotypes...and their heads simply explode. I have witnessed this personally, in Southern states in the 1990s, and at various places Staeteside, at various times ever since.

But it's also that she comes across badly. t first saw this in 1992, when I was visiting friends in Virginia, and she was on the telly. My friend's mom says "she's too damn full of herself". She's smart, and knows it, it comes across as smug as hell, arrogant even, and unempathwetic She fails the likeability test, big time. In American politics that matters. It's probably why her husband pulled of the election shock win of practically all time, why Reagan won two landslides, and it helped JFK win.

 

[Streathamite]

I think scifisam is sports

I said the moment Trump was elected that he was likely to be the first POTUS of the moden era to order troops to fire on his own citizens - he hasn't quite got there yet, but if he does that could be the tinderbox moment. Though with the militias on the side of the oppressive government

He came bloody close at Lafayette Park.

 

[Marty1]

Biden will win and it will be a landslide victory.

Specifically I think the Dems will take michigan, ohio, pennsylvania, florida and north carolina

Pennsylvania?

Didn’t that state loose around 50k + jobs under Obama and Biden.

Trump brought those jobs back in steel, oil and gas etc industries. If Biden wins and implements the green new deal - all those jobs are gone.

 

[Flavour]

Pennsylvania?

Didn’t that state loose around 50k + jobs under Obama and Biden.

Trump brought those jobs back in steel, oil and gas etc industries. If Biden wins and implements the green new deal - all those jobs are gone.

Fuck off back to your alt-right cave you pig-headed fascist cunt

 

[Streathamite]

OK, I really haven't explained myself properly here. I agree entirely that he represents exactly the same things as HRC, that politically he's coming from an almost identical place on the spectrum.
I didn't mean that: I meant the personal differences, the people they are, how they come across, how various different groups of people perceive them. And unfortunately, in a Presidential election, that affects the result (which is also why Al gore lost to a Republican who was vastly intellectually his inferior; Gore came across as a total jerk).

The problem with HRC, is that a huge range of people dislike her personally. This is partly plain and simple sexism. There's a certain type of, umm, robustly traditional American (mostly, but not solely men), who take a look at HRC, and they see; smug, selfconfident lady lawyer from the big bad sinful city to the North, who's smarter than them, better educated than them, better groomed than them, wealthier than them, more articulate than them, more successful than them, and who knows it, and who absolutely refuses to conform to traditional wife-and-mom stereotypes...and their heads simply explode. I have witnessed this personally, in Southern states in the 1990s, and at various places Staeteside, at various times ever since.

But it's also that she comes across badly. t first saw this in 1992, when I was visiting friends in Virginia, and she was on the telly. My friend's mom says "she's too damn full of herself". She's smart, and knows it, it comes across as smug as hell, arrogant even, and unempathwetic She fails the likeability test, big time. In American politics that matters. It's probably why her husband pulled of the election shock win of practically all time, why Reagan won two landslides, and it helped JFK win.

Also, we need to add in sanders supporters, last time. They were (justifiably) furious at the antics of the DNC, so much so that many of them either 'wrote in' Bernie, or abstained. In an election as tight as that, it makes a big difference

 

[Marty1]

Also, we need to add in sanders supporters, last time. They were (justifiably) furious at the antics of the DNC, so much so that many of them either 'wrote in' Bernie, or abstained. In an election as tiht as that, it makes a big difference

I wonder how many Bernie bros quietly voted for Trump?

 

[Streathamite]

Pennsylvania?

Didn’t that state loose around 50k + jobs under Obama and Biden.

Trump brought those jobs back in steel, oil and gas etc industries. If Biden wins and implements the green new deal - all those jobs are gone.

err, now have a look at the polls in Pennsylvanbia, doofus.
And Trump only started to bring back a small amount of those jobs. it was a small improvement, now almost totally wiped out by the COVID receassion
And if you knew anything about the Green New Deal - which you most assuredly do not. - you would know it addresses that, by retraining and new green jobs.
Idiocy as ever. Doh!

 

[frogwoman]

I think some of the Bernie supporters just won't vote.

 

[scifisam]

Hang on, none of the claims you made in post 49 were prefaced with 'I think' or 'in my view' you said




Those are not phrased as speculation but as facts. If you're saying that they are just your views fine, and there's no problem with posting speculation or views but most of those claims are either not accurate or dubious.

The thread title is about what you "think" will happen, so I didn't think it was necessary to add that to every phrase I used.

Other people have stated their opinions in a very definitive way. "Biden will win and it will be a landslide victory." "Trump wins EC, Biden gets an even bigger majority in the PV." "Biden wins popular vote." "Biden will almost certainly win the popular vote." "I'm pretty certain Trump will win one or the other." (There are plenty more but I'm not going to go through the whole thread and am not going to do the whole eyeball-straining multiquote thing).

No "I think" or anything similar added to any of them (and it doesn't need to be), but it was only me you challenged.


(Also, when I mentioned people saying Bush would lose, I wasn't talking about Urban; I wasn't on here in 2004. There is, bizarrely, a world outside Urban - but I still can't remember the specific names of people I knew who were saying Bush would lose. Sorry).

 

[Streathamite]

I think some of the Bernie supporters just won't vote.

Sure, but much less so than last time, simply because a) Biden was seen to win the nomination fair and square i.e. b) no complete, blatant stittch up from DNC HQ (or none that wikileaks has managed to expose, yet) and b) Bernie's absolutely storming round everywhere for Biden/Harris. in fact, he's fast becoming their biggest campaigning asset

 

[scifisam]

DP

 

[isvicthere?]

Given that...

a) the norm is for incumbent US presidents to win
b) the electoral college system favours the GOP (e.g. in 2016 where Clinton convincingly won the popular vote)
c) "democracy" is now (even more than ever) a busted flush, controlled by morally dubious, but spectacularly effective, exploiters of data (see also: brexit, where the leave side were convicted of electoral fraud, but nothing was done so they still "won")..

I would despairingly predict that the spectacularly unfit present incumbent will "win" again.

 

[ska invita]

....also watch Biden Crash And Burn in the TV debates. His poll lead is there to lose