farmerbarleymow
I'm Petee's spirit animal
Because he knows he is going to lose. Good riddance to the disgusting orange cunt.
Who does Urban think (not hope) will win the November US Presidential Election? (The Poll)
- Thread starter tim
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Maybe he will lose votes after his dance moves?
Anyway, Biden isn’t counting his chickens quite yet.
Biden says Trump can win because of 'how he plays'
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden says President Donald Trump can still win the 2020 election because delegitimizing the race's outcome is "how he plays."
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
And you would seriously expect Biden - or any candidate in hhis position - to say anything different to that?Maybe he will lose votes after his dance moves?
Anyway, Biden isn’t counting his chickens quite yet.
Biden says Trump can win because of 'how he plays'
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden says President Donald Trump can still win the 2020 election because delegitimizing the race's outcome is "how he plays."edition.cnn.com
You really are being incredibly dishonest here.
keybored
Well done. You remember cat good.
Looks like the tide has turned! MAKE OF THAT WHAT YOU WILL!
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
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Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
May well be that the us us heading for a huge increased turn out, and i seriously doubt that is being driven by enthusiasm for trump or fear of biden. Last time the trump campaign exploit clintons unpopularity so that voters stayed home. This opposite is happening this time round, also driven by the blatant attempts to supress the vote.
Could be wrong, but it all points to a vast, anti trump tsunami.
Many many reasons to vote against him as opposed to 2016 and nothing in the pro column unless you are a maga fash fuckwit.
Some one made the comparison with the chirac vs le pen contest in France in 2002ish. The slogan doing the rounds was "vote for the crook, not the nazi". The crook, chirac, won by a landslide.
Eta. Although biden forgetting who he is running against may have damaged his popularity amongst voters who like their president not to suffer from short term memory loss
Could be wrong, but it all points to a vast, anti trump tsunami.
Many many reasons to vote against him as opposed to 2016 and nothing in the pro column unless you are a maga fash fuckwit.
Some one made the comparison with the chirac vs le pen contest in France in 2002ish. The slogan doing the rounds was "vote for the crook, not the nazi". The crook, chirac, won by a landslide.
Eta. Although biden forgetting who he is running against may have damaged his popularity amongst voters who like their president not to suffer from short term memory loss
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Raheem
Well-Known Member
His heart's not in it, though. He's not even doing the proper dance.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Just don’t get fucking complacent, although turnout figures suggest this isn’t happening.
One of my worries is Trump motivating those who don’t normally vote, getting these people out. I’m sure that’s happening, something we’ve seen with previous victories for the right (Brexit, UK elections). They’re very good at manipulating stuff like Facebook to drive those voters out, something anybody other than the targets won’t see. Models may not pick this up sufficiently. My gut feeling is Florida will stay Trump as they’re doing a lot of this here, tapping into anti-socialist sentiment amongst Cubans and exiles from South America who have fled failed regimes. Could be other states in the bag too, we’re just not seeing it, and good polling figures spun by CNN etc aren’t reassuring enough. I want them crushed, but similar things were predicted in the mid terms and it didn’t go as well as it could.
One of my worries is Trump motivating those who don’t normally vote, getting these people out. I’m sure that’s happening, something we’ve seen with previous victories for the right (Brexit, UK elections). They’re very good at manipulating stuff like Facebook to drive those voters out, something anybody other than the targets won’t see. Models may not pick this up sufficiently. My gut feeling is Florida will stay Trump as they’re doing a lot of this here, tapping into anti-socialist sentiment amongst Cubans and exiles from South America who have fled failed regimes. Could be other states in the bag too, we’re just not seeing it, and good polling figures spun by CNN etc aren’t reassuring enough. I want them crushed, but similar things were predicted in the mid terms and it didn’t go as well as it could.
ruffneck23
front left
I think he will win, I don't want him to but I cant shake the feeling...
However part of me is more worried about what happens if he loses.
However part of me is more worried about what happens if he loses.
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Trump reckons if he wins Pennsylvania he wins the election.
He’s just completed a series of rallies in Martinsburg, Lititz and Allentown.
No incumbent President is winning on approval ratings of -10 against the background of 250,000 dead Americans and massively increased turnout under these circs is not an indicator of enthusiasm to vote for himMay well be that the us us heading for a huge increased turn out, and i seriously doubt that is being driven by enthusiasm for trump or fear of biden. Last time the trump campaign exploit clintons unpopularity so that voters stayed home. This opposite is happening this time round, also driven by the blatant attempts to supress the vote.
Could be wrong, but it all points to a vast, anti trump tsunami.
Many many reasons to vote against him as opposed to 2016 and nothing in the pro column unless you are a maga fash fuckwit.
Some one made the comparison with the chirac vs le pen contest in France in 2002ish. The slogan doing the rounds was "vote for the crook, not the nazi". The crook, chirac, won by a landslide.
Eta. Although biden forgetting who he is running against may have damaged his popularity amongst voters who like their president not to suffer from short term memory loss
It's that simple, it really is
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
Does anyone know which way to the void? Marty1 needs to do some shouting.
Trump reckons he's a very stable genius and they've turned the Covid corner.
Texas is a toss of a coin. Texas.
Trump reckons he's a very stable genius and they've turned the Covid corner.
Texas is a toss of a coin. Texas.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I think worries about what happens when he loses are overstated tbh. A very few loons may take to the streets, but they will be mostly ignored - think the pitiful 'Jarrow March for Brexit', but with a few added guns. All Trump's bravado and bullying and everything will go as soon as it's clear he's lost. His words won't matter any more, and everyone will know that. My prediction: the idiot will exit power with barely a whimper, particularly if the Republicans also lose the Senate.
Those people love having influence through fear and we'd do really well not to give it any more room than is really necessary tbh
If Trump loses Texas he’s lost the election for sure.
Tbh, I’d be surprised if he did and more inclined to think the polling isn’t accurate to suggest a coin toss.
But not long now before we find out for sure.
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
Personally I also think Texas will stay Republican, but there are a dozen currently red states more precarious than Texas.
A Trump line parroted word for word. On what basis other than pure wishful thinking do you think polling (and by that I mean every single poll) isn't accurate?
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
I make of it that you're a buffoon.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I'll be surprised if Trump loses Texas, but there's lots of early voting in Democratic-leaning areas, so it's possible.
edition.cnn.com
Analysis: Why the GOP hold on Texas is loosening
The record surge of early voting in Texas' rapidly growing cities and inner suburbs, which on Friday helped power the state past its total votes cast during the entire 2016 election, likely marks the end of unchallenged Republican dominance in America's second largest state -- a seismic shift in...
This is wrong btw
strung out
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Still a 30% chance for Biden if he loses Pennsylvania - various other combinations of very plausible scenarios that could see him win in that eventuality.
Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?
Michigan and Wisconsin have been the focus of a lot of attention from nervous Democrats for the past four years, in part because Hillary Clinton spent relativel…
I just checked my workingStill a 30% chance for Biden if he loses Pennsylvania - various other combinations of very plausible scenarios that could see him win in that eventuality.
Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?
Michigan and Wisconsin have been the focus of a lot of attention from nervous Democrats for the past four years, in part because Hillary Clinton spent relativel…fivethirtyeight.com
Given spending/tactical decisions by the GOP and current polling averages, it seems reasonable to assume that even they agree that MI & WI have been lost
I've given Trump Ohio (if he wins PA he def wins OH), Maine 2nd district & Iowa despite the latter two being toss ups in all honesty
NE second district goes to Biden - polling, flight of suburban voters from Trump and spending decisions would seem to agree with this
AZ goes to Biden - completely different state/region to PA so not connected in any way to the loss there. Seems likely given Trump's slating of John McCain, his widow's endorsement of Biden and again those suburbanites running from Trump. Also further rise in Latino % of state.
I've got Biden at 270 without even allocating a winner of FL, NC, TX or GA, all of which are toss ups at this stage
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
I think you are absolutely correct. This election is all about Trump. he's blocking out pretty much Biden, every other subject, every policy issue.
Normally, this would be a great thing for the incumbent, and a terible thing for the challenger, as the incumbent would be the one making all the running, aand he would get to set and frame the debate.
Here, it works the other way round. It's working completely against Trump. Instead of being 'the Trump election', it's fast becoming the 'for God's sake, get Trump out!' election.
It really won't matter at this stage. Besides which, everyone's inured to Joe's occasional verbal missteps, and the legacies of his stammering problem. By now, they seem almost endearing.Eta. Although biden forgetting who he is running against may have damaged his popularity amongst voters who like their president not to suffer from short term memory loss
What's mattered is that he has seemed calm, dignified, thoughtful and even statesmanlike. In stark contrast to You Know Who
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
But there is zero evidence that this is happening. All the evidence, and any logical interpretation of how people are likely to behave points to trump losing. Last time he attracted support from people who wanted to throw rocks at Washington and Clintons lack of appeal supressed the dem vote just enough in key states.
None of that is a factor now.
But hes been in power for 4 years and generated huge amounts of ill will and proved himself to many Americans to be completely unsuitable in a time of national crisis.
There is big motivation to vote him out, and very little to vote for him.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
I go with all of this, except that I think Trump will lose Maine 2nd district, simply because the sheer depth of loathing for Trump in Maine has to be witnessed to be believed. Plus, I think Biden willl win NC, simply because the polls look too damn solid. But even if he doesn't, and loses Pennsylvania, I have him on 271.
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StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
For Trump to win, the polls have to be very wrong, but they also have to be very wrong in a very specific way. It happened last time, of course, but really it was a bit of a fluke. He has to hope to repeat that fluke from considerably further behind and with no sign of a late revival. That they are pinning their hopes on taking a state that currently polls Trump five points behind tells its own story.
strung out
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I think the only reason that polling could be off to such a huge degree as to hand Trump a win, is if something about the vast increase in early voting due to Covid, and the effect that has on confirmed/likely/undecided voters, leads to a hiccup in the way they calculate likelihood of eventual support on polling day. I'm not saying that's what I think is happening, and it could easily have an effect in the opposite direction favouring Biden, I just wonder whether the huge changes in voting methods this year will throw things out of whack.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
This is a key point. last time, he could campaign as the insurgent, the People's Champion running against the corrupt Washington Elite. He can't do that this time, simply because if he tried to, people will turn round and say, "well, OK, but what have you been doing for the past 4 years?" He has to run on his record. And right now, that record pretty much stinks.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
The polls weren't really that far wrong last time - there just weren't enough of them. The national polls came within a 15age point of calling it right. However - and as JTG pointed earlier upthread - out in the last week or so of the campaign, there were no statewide polls for either Michigan or Wisconsin. Everyone simply assumed Hillary would walk them. In the event, trump squeaked home there, and in PA - and became President.
Everyone simply took their eye of the ball.
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