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Who does Urban think (not hope) will win the November US Presidential Election? (The Poll)

Who will win the popular vote and who will get a majority in the electoral college?

  • Trump will win the popular vote

    Votes: 20 9.2%

  • Biden will win the popular vote

    Votes: 96 44.2%

  • Trump will win a majority in the Electoral College

    Votes: 49 22.6%

  • Biden will win a majority in the Electoral College

    Votes: 70 32.3%

  • It will be 269 to 269 in the electoral college

    Votes: 1 0.5%

  • Chaos followed by a coup d'etat

    Votes: 23 10.6%

  • Chaos followed by provisional revolutionary government

    Votes: 9 4.1%

  • No fucking idea

    Votes: 73 33.6%
  • Total voters
    217
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I was discussing this with two American colleagues the other day. Both can and will vote but are from very, very non-Trump areas (one's registered in NY, the other in Chicago) so don't expect their votes to count for much. (They haven't said they're voting Biden but they're definitely not voting Trump. No idea if anyone else -- like Nader -- is even standing but suspect they'd be voting tactically anyway.)
 
beesonthewhatnow said:
Fairly sure there was no way Trump was going to win back in 2016 too.
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Out of curiosity I looked back at the thread on here for it. It is true that most posters (me included) thought Clinton would win. However, it was a lot tighter and there was a lot less certainty - Clinton's lead in the polls was nowhere near Biden's right now, and as election day approached, there were signs of things tightening. Plus various posters put up credible sources saying correctly that it was neck and neck.

There is still no sign of anything tightening up, and no credible sources are making the argument that the polls are wrong and we're in for a shock. At worst, Biden falls over the line.
 
Streathamite said:
no - more like 35-40% of projected turnout. 2016 had a very low turnout. 2020 looks like having a very high turnout (for America)
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I literally said 'of eligible voters' because that's what I meant rather than 'of people who actually voted'. It's possible but still unlikely that more people will vote for Biden than don't vote but more people have not voted than voted for the winner in every US election in my lifetime. It's worth remembering.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Out of curiosity I looked back at the thread on here for it. It is true that most posters (me included) thought Clinton would win. However, it was a lot tighter and there was a lot less certainty - Clinton's lead in the polls was nowhere near Biden's right now, and as election day approached, there were signs of things tightening. Plus various posters put up credible sources saying correctly that it was neck and neck.

There is still no sign of anything tightening up, and no credible sources are making the argument that the polls are wrong and we're in for a shock. At worst, Biden falls over the line.
Click to expand...
Correct
 
maomao said:
I literally said 'of eligible voters' because that's what I meant rather than 'of people who actually voted'. It's possible but still unlikely that more people will vote for Biden than don't vote but more people have not voted than voted for the winner in every US election in my lifetime. It's worth remembering.
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fair enough. The reason why I was unsure of whether you really meant that is because the total US electorate is c. 255 million-260 million. I really don't think 78 million will vote for Trump
 
Streathamite said:
fair enough. The reason why I was unsure of whether you really meant that is because the total US electorate is c. 255 million-260 million. I really don't think 78 million will vote for Trump
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It's about 233 million and 30% was a ballpark figure. Maybe 25% then. That sounds about right for the proportion of people who are either really stupid or racist pieces of shit.
 
maomao said:
I literally said 'of eligible voters' because that's what I meant rather than 'of people who actually voted'. It's possible but still unlikely that more people will vote for Biden than don't vote but more people have not voted than voted for the winner in every US election in my lifetime. It's worth remembering.
Click to expand...
The US system is similar to ours in that regard. We end up being governed by people who were voted for by, at best, a quarter of the electorate.
 
Streathamite said:
no, I think it's quite a bit more than that. In 2016 it was 250 mil. I totally get the other points you're making, thhough - I reckon Trump will get c. 59-61 mil
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I actually worked it out from the 2016 turnout figures last night (I got 233 million and rounded down) so it was a little out of date but not that far out. USA Today gives the figure as 'nearly 240 million' in an article four days ago. Remember there are a lot of states where felons can't vote. That knocks about 5 and a half million off the figure. Then there's another 2.3 million actually in prison who can't vote. I'm sure there are other disenfranchised groups too.
 
maomao said:
I actually worked it out from the 2016 turnout figures last night (I got 233 million and rounded down) so it was a little out of date but not that far out. USA Today gives the figure as 'nearly 240 million' in an article four days ago. Remember there are a lot of states where felons can't vote. That knocks about 5 and a half million off the figure. Then there's another 2.3 million actually in prison who can't vote. I'm sure there are other disenfranchised groups too.
Click to expand...
Several million undocumented immigrants.
 
maomao said:
I actually worked it out from the 2016 turnout figures last night (I got 233 million and rounded down) so it was a little out of date but not that far out. USA Today gives the figure as 'nearly 240 million' in an article four days ago. Remember there are a lot of states where felons can't vote. That knocks about 5 and a half million off the figure. Then there's another 2.3 million actually in prison who can't vote. I'm sure there are other disenfranchised groups too.
Click to expand...
Ahh yes, OK, see your point.
 
maomao said:
I actually worked it out from the 2016 turnout figures last night (I got 233 million and rounded down) so it was a little out of date but not that far out. USA Today gives the figure as 'nearly 240 million' in an article four days ago. Remember there are a lot of states where felons can't vote. That knocks about 5 and a half million off the figure. Then there's another 2.3 million actually in prison who can't vote. I'm sure there are other disenfranchised groups too.
Click to expand...
i thought you might find this interesting https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/index.html?appid=4f72ccefe3444314830c821b7d42c723
1603705610025.png
it's got loads of maps and graphics and that
 
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