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Who does Urban think (not hope) will win the November US Presidential Election? (The Poll)

Who will win the popular vote and who will get a majority in the electoral college?


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Of course he does. Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun, and his supporters are better armed than Biden's
Sure, but that's not going to happen. America is an incredibly legalistic country, and he'll be drowning in lawsuits the moment he tried that. The President's powers are very carefully constrained - by design
 
Sure, but that's not going to happen. America is an incredibly legalistic country, and he'll be drowning in lawsuits the moment he tried that. The President's powers are very carefully constrained - by design
That’s all true, they talked a lot about avoiding tyranny and never having another king at the start, but if it really came to it, if, it would always come down to force and who has the overwhelming violence on their side wouldn’t it, I suppose this means the military, in that country as in most.
“The tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants”, I like that.
 
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That’s all true, they talked a lot about avoiding tyranny and never having another king at the start, but if it really came to it, if, it would always come down to force and who has the overwhelming violence on their side wouldn’t it, I suppose this means the military, in that country as in most.
“The tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants”, I like that.

Most of our generals consider themselves professional soldiers with professional standards and ethics. I don't think they'd engage in the violent overthrow a civilian government.

However, I don't give the same credit to the enlisted class. They've been infiltrated by white supremacists and other far right groups and there's no telling what they would do if they had the opportunity.
 
Six former Democrat mayors in the 'Iron Range' (Minnesota to you and me) endorse Trump. One says 'Joe Biden has done nothing for the working class'.


Thats done it for me, might only be a small little thing but it sums up the direction of the election campaign in my mind. Biden is going to tell everyone that Trump is so awful that they have to vote for him, just like HRC did, and people are gonna say how are you any better.

I've changed my vote in the poll by the way. I reckon Trump will win the popular vote.
 
This by the way is just the very definition of a stopped clock surprising everyone by telling the correct time.
 

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Six former Democrat mayors in the 'Iron Range' (Minnesota to you and me) endorse Trump. One says 'Joe Biden has done nothing for the working class'.


Thats done it for me, might only be a small little thing but it sums up the direction of the election campaign in my mind. Biden is going to tell everyone that Trump is so awful that they have to vote for him, just like HRC did, and people are gonna say how are you any better.

I've changed my vote in the poll by the way. I reckon Trump will win the popular vote.

It’s already clear that the biggest obstacle to a Democrat win is the Democrats. As I suggested above their essential offer is precisely the same as it was in 2016, except this time they are offering a marginally less unpopular candidate.

The already obsessive anti-Trump narrative will undoubtably motivate voters but a) it will motivate voters in places that the Democrats are going to win anyway and b) increasingly likely to motivate Trump voters to turn out in places where the Democrats used to win.

Put another way the election will be won and lost in a relatively small number of States. The key segment of the electorate in those states are white and Hispanic voters for whom the ‘American dream’ has become a nightmare. The victims of the slow burn collapse of American neo-liberalism.

The basic problem with the Biden approach is, as you suggest, that it’s politically meaningless and irrelevant to the lives of voters where Covid, the economy, collapsed futures and despair promote demands for change. Any change. The offer of a limited programme of racial disparity correction within the existing order will be perceived as risking further exclusion by these communities.

To win those voters choosing a technocrat who is the epitome of PMC politics, culture and the old order isn't the place to start. And, from what I’ve seen so far there isn’t even a recognition by their campaign that this is the terrain on which the election will be won and lost.

Talk of a Biden landslide was always wide of the mark, but as Trump’s lead on the economy and law and order continues to expand in these areas I’d expect frustrations with the Biden campaign to begin to grow in these places as the polls are now suggesting. Can Biden win purely and only on the basis of ‘not being’ Trump? Possibly, but it’s a risk that the Democrats could easily have avoided.
More importantly, if Biden does win where does it take us?
 
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This by the way is just the very definition of a stopped clock surprising everyone by telling the correct time.

He's got the Democratic pitch wrong and Joe Biden's age wrong - he's right that Biden should be taking a lot more shit for the 1994 crime bill, although simultaneously attacking Biden for being too tough on crime and too soft on crime would be a tricky maneuver even for Trump.

Although he does seem to be having a moderate amount of success campaigning as an incumbent with an "I'm going to go to DC and chuck those bum politicians out" message, so who knows.
 
He's got the Democratic pitch wrong and Joe Biden's age wrong - he's right that Biden should be taking a lot more shit for the 1994 crime bill, although simultaneously attacking Biden for being too tough on crime and too soft on crime would be a tricky maneuver even for Trump.

Although he does seem to be having a moderate amount of success campaigning as an incumbent with an "I'm going to go to DC and chuck those bum politicians out" message, so who knows.

He's not talking about Trump at all?

The point is that Biden is not what the vast majority of what those who want Trump out want.
 
He's not talking about Trump at all?

The point is that Biden is not what the vast majority of what those who want Trump out want.
But his age and race are beside the point. He's more or less the same age and race as Bernie Sanders. Lazy to point out that Biden is an old white man as if that were particularly significant. Agree that his connection to the crime bill is far more to the point. I'm not so sure how much purchase that has given how long ago it was, though. Surely the things he can be associated with from the Obama years are more relevant.
 
But his age and race are beside the point. He's more or less the same age and race as Bernie Sanders. Lazy to point out that Biden is an old white man as if that were particularly significant. Agree that his connection to the crime bill is far more to the point. I'm not so sure how much purchase that has given how long ago it was, though. Surely the things he can be associated with from the Obama years are more relevant.

Im really not sure what you're expecting from Shapiro. The point is, for once something he says makes sense and it should make Dems very uncomfortable.
 
Where I do think the Republicans and Trump have been successful from an aesthetics point of view at least is that they've sidelined all the old style Republicans from the Bush years and even characters like Romney and Marco Rubio etc, whereas Pelosi and all these 90s era democrats (and earlier) are still hanging around:facepalm: doesn't really offer much in the way of 'new politics' does it? It's like Boris fighting an election against Alistair Darling, Neil Kinnock, Claire Short and Gordon Brown.
 
Where I do think the Republicans and Trump have been successful from an aesthetics point of view at least is that they've sidelined all the old style Republicans from the Bush years and even characters like Romney and Marco Rubio etc, whereas Pelosi and all these 90s era democrats (and earlier) are still hanging around:facepalm: doesn't really offer much in the way of 'new politics' does it? It's like Boris fighting an election against Alistair Darling, Neil Kinnock, Claire Short and Gordon Brown.

Which in effect is what Johnson did - they wouldn't shut up the whole time!
 
FT story which contains a nice plot Clinton vs Trump and Biden vs Trump polling
poll.png
So why is there such a disconnect between national polling — where Mr Biden enjoys a stable lead — and the perceptions of voters and those betting in the prediction markets?
One explanation is that a national lead does not equate to a victory in the electoral college. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 but still lost the race.
The same thing happened in 2000 when Al Gore lost to George W Bush.
Some pundits therefore prefer to focus instead on state-level polling averages that show Mr Biden has a narrower lead at this point in the race than Mrs Clinton had — especially in those states that helped propel Mr Trump to victory.
However, simply comparing state polling numbers in 2020 to those from 2016 can be misleading and might suggest the race is tighter than it really is — for two important reasons.
 
So, quite a clear picture of how this US election is going to pan out has already been painted it would seem.

Neither side is going to concede until the mail in votes are fully counted (whenever that will be) and even then, ballot harvesting and voter fraud will no doubt be claimed.

If Trump continues in the WH his entire second term will be fought through the courts by the Dems.

Just caught a headline stating Kamala Harris is now banging on about Russian interference :facepalm:

It’s going to get very messy.
 
So, quite a clear picture of how this US election is going to pan out has already been painted it would seem.

Neither side is going to concede until the mail in votes are fully counted (whenever that will be) and even then, ballot harvesting and voter fraud will no doubt be claimed.

If Trump continues in the WH his entire second term will be fought through the courts by the Dems.

Just caught a headline stating Kamala Harris is now banging on about Russian interference :facepalm:

It’s going to get very messy.

Especially with all those Trojans horses running
 
So, Trump has now been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize:


Doesn’t mean he’s going to win it, but there you go - an interesting development nonetheless.

It's not really. Did you read the article? It says in there about the nomination process and the low barrier for nomination.

"University professors, directors of foreign policy institutes, past recipients of a Nobel Prize and members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee are also among those deemed qualified to submit a nomination for the prize. The nominations require no invitation and as long they are entered before 1 February of the qualifying year, they will be accepted." (Plus any leader. My app isn't letting me copy and paste properly.

Later it said that Hitler was nominated too.
 
For a nomination alone, the barrier to entry is low: all nominations from heads of state or politicians serving at a national level are accepted.

University professors, directors of foreign policy institutes, past recipients of a Nobel Prize and members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee are also among those deemed qualified to submit a nomination for the prize. The nominations require no invitation and as long they are entered before 1 February of the qualifying year, they will be accepted.

Sounds like the Norwegian bellend who nominated Trump would have nominated Anders Breivik if he thought he could get away with it.
 
"Chaos followed by a coup d'etat"
IMO, I think trump might ATTEMPT some shifty schemes such as claiming Vote Rigging allowed Biden to win and he will try and hold on as long as possible by going through the court system (afterall that is his MO) but I don't believe a Coup d'etat will go far, even for a close win by Biden.
If he (trump) is defeated convinciling in the popular Vote and the Electoral College does not become a tool for trump to use, then he will have to go... Kicking and screaming like a child no doubt, nevertheless an undeniable win is what needs to happen. IMO
Oh, and I have no doubt trump/Republicans will cheat in any way they can.
 
Potential scandal unfolding regarding Democrat fundraising and suggestion of foreign involvement:


Putin?
 
Potential scandal unfolding regarding Democrat fundraising and suggestion of foreign involvement:


Putin?

A Fox News link about a conservative political group raising "serious concerns". :facepalm:
 
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