Who does Urban think (not hope) will win the November US Presidential Election? (The Poll)

[cupid_stunt]

There’s more video online from other angles including other guests being physically pushed and verbally assaulted.

Rand Paul said he feared for his and his wife’s safety. Looked incredibly intense from the various footage I’ve seen.

So, basically there was a bit of pushing & shouting, and he almost shat himself, oh diddums, perhaps she should go home to his mother for protection, as he's clearly not grown-up enough to be walking the streets.

 

[JimW]

So, basically there was a bit of pushing & shouting, and he almost shat himself, oh diddums, perhaps she should go home to his mother for protection, as he's clearly not grown-up enough to be walking the streets.

In fairness to the senator he merely made a cynical ploy to highlight the horrors of antifa at a crucial point in the election cycle rather than felt any genuine fear for anyone's safety.

 

[Marty1]

So, basically there was a bit of pushing & shouting, and he almost shat himself, oh diddums, perhaps she should go home to his mother for protection, as he's clearly not grown-up enough to be walking the streets.

Personally I wouldn’t have liked to have been in Rand and his wife’s shoes, approx a 100 people strong crowd hurling abuse and pushing to get a them, one cop nearly flattened as police made a human shield to rush them out the area.

 

[editor]

Personally I wouldn’t have liked to have been in Rand and his wife’s shoes, approx a 100 people strong crowd hurling abuse and pushing to get a them, one cop nearly flattened as police made a human shield to rush them out the area.

I wouldn't like to be in Rand's shoes either because he's a fucking cunt but it's good to see where your sympathies lie.

 

[JimW]

Personally I wouldn’t have liked to have been in Rand and his wife’s shoes, approx a 100 people strong crowd hurling abuse and pushing to get a them, one cop nearly flattened as police made a human shield to rush them out the area.

You'll have been jostled harder going to the bar at last orders.

 

[Marty1]

I wouldn't like to be in Rand's shoes either because he's a fucking cunt but it's good to see where your sympathies lie.

Most politicians are cunts to varying degrees.

My sympathies lie with Julia Jackson who put things perfectly:

“Everybody, let’s use our hearts, our love, and our intelligence to work together to show the rest of the world how humans are supposed to treat each other. America is great when we behave greatly.”

 

[redsquirrel]

DP

 

[redsquirrel]

yep read that Atlantic article earlier today and found it pretty convincing tbh. Without a doubt the President is absolutely loving and milking the current situation of violence in the streets, he tweets 'LAW AND ORDER!' at least once every day. What he means by that is another question but people who live outside of cities and are just scared by what they are seeing on tv every night might be convinced to vote for him out of simple fear.

Packer is using supposed electoral considerations for his own political attack on the 'rioters', his piece it essentially the same as the stuff TomUS has been coming out with on the other thread - that the protestors are the problem. Moreover besides being horrible politically there's no real evidence that there is a backlash against BLM, or that that backlash is hurting Biden (at the moment). Trump's tweeting law and order did not help him back in June, quite the opposite.

 

[krtek a houby]

There’s more video online from other angles including other guests being physically pushed and verbally assaulted.

Rand Paul said he feared for his and his wife’s safety.

Looked incredibly intense from the various footage I’ve seen.

Yes, it's horrid. If you look close enough, you can see antifa protesters on Trojan horses trampling all over this brave, beloved couple.

 

[Nylock]

There’s more video online from other angles including other guests being physically pushed and verbally assaulted.

Rand Paul said he feared for his and his wife’s safety.

Looked incredibly intense from the various footage I’ve seen.

So was he attacked or not?

 

[Ted Striker]

 

[Yossarian]

Those figures might not be as worrying as they first appear - Facebook is mostly for old people these days, and they are more likely both to support Donald Trump and to share 50 articles a day from conservative news sources, undeterred by the fact that nobody is interacting with their posts.

 

[maomao]

Those figures might not be as worrying as they first appear - Facebook is mostly for old people these days, and they are more likely both to support Donald Trump and to share 50 articles a day from conservative news sources, undeterred by the fact that nobody is interacting with their posts.

And more likely to vote.

 

[bimble]

Lots of videos on the internet this morning of 'trump caravans' - strings of his supporters in cars with flags waving rolling into / through places that they perceive as enemy territory (LA, portland). Is this something that has happened before in the run-up to elections? To my eyes it looks terrifying but i know that i overreact and see the 1930s everywhere.

 

[Yossarian]

And more likely to vote.

Still in an echo chamber though - I don't think many floating voters will be swayed by the 900th pro-Trump article Uncle Wayne has shared on Facebook.

Some of these older voters may also end up zugzwanged by the fact that they're too frail and/or worried about virus exposure to wait in lines for hours to vote in person, but also believe Trump's claims that postal voting is part of a Communist scheme to steal the election.

 

[JimW]

Lots of videos on the internet this morning of 'trump caravans' (strings of his supporters in cars with flags waving rolling into / through places that they perceive as enemy territory (LA, portland). Is this something that has happened before in the run-up to elections? To my eyes it looks terrifying but i know that i overreact and see the 1930s everyehere.

I just wish they all had to run the gauntlet of a well-armed militia that they no doubt are all in favour of.

 

[redsquirrel]

Mid-terms are different to presidential election years, polls can be wrong (or wrongly interpreted), and simply extrapolating from either to the result in Nov would be daft. But both are a better guide than social media views/like. US national polling is actually pretty good, Trump has a good base of support but the evidence is that there is more opposition, and currently support for Biden.

 

[Marty1]

Not surprising really.

MSM is in its death throes - people literally uploading videos they’ve made in their kitchen getting more views than CNN et al etc.

 

[8ball]

Lots of videos on the internet this morning of 'trump caravans' - strings of his supporters in cars with flags waving rolling into / through places that they perceive as enemy territory (LA, portland). Is this something that has happened before in the run-up to elections? To my eyes it looks terrifying but i know that i overreact and see the 1930s everywhere.

Sounds like it could be anywhere on the scale from ad hoc misjudged campaigning to open intimidation.

when I google for this I mostly see stuff about the “migrant caravans” that were a story involving demonising migrants - is this definitely what they’re calling them?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Lots of videos on the internet this morning of 'trump caravans' - strings of his supporters in cars with flags waving rolling into / through places that they perceive as enemy territory (LA, portland). Is this something that has happened before in the run-up to elections? To my eyes it looks terrifying but i know that i overreact and see the 1930s everywhere.

Clearly it's not for the benefit of the locals, so it's a performance for the benefit of people in other states. I guess that's one point of difference between now and the 1930s. The trumpists have no intention of taking over California or Oregon. They know they will lose big there. These actions might make them lose bigger there, but that won't matter. The audience is elsewhere.

 

[bimble]

Sounds like it could be anywhere on the scale from ad hoc misjudged campaigning to open intimidation.

when I google for this I mostly see stuff about the “migrant caravans” that were a story involving demonising migrants - is this definitely what they’re calling them?

Think so, or pro-trump caravan maybe.

 

[8ball]

Think so, or pro-trump caravan maybe.

Ah, that found them. Cheers.
What a bunch of dicks.

From here:

"Posts on the Facebook event page encouraged attendees to carry concealed firearms rather than openly carry firearms ..."

Because then everything will be nice and safe..

 

[bimble]

Packer is using supposed electoral considerations for his own political attack on the 'rioters', his piece it essentially the same as the stuff TomUS has been coming out with on the other thread - that the protestors are the problem. Moreover besides being horrible politically there's no real evidence that there is a backlash against BLM, or that that backlash is hurting Biden (at the moment). Trump's tweeting law and order did not help him back in June, quite the opposite.

What happened in June? (he's just tweeted it yet again). In June wasnt the main story the virus and the abject state of the US's handling of it ? The killing of George Floyd did not help trump but thats not the main story now, it's this. He does appear to be making his whole re-election campaign around the protests / unrest. Which is kind of amazing when you look at it, the incumbent saying 'see this burning car these shootings this boarded up shop it is Biden's fault' just doesn't make any sense.

 

[redsquirrel]

What happened in June? (he's just tweeted it yet again). In June wasnt the main story the virus and the abject state of the US's handling of it ? The killing of George Floyd did not help trump but thats not the main story now, it's this. He does appear to be making his whole re-election campaign around the protests / unrest. Which is kind of amazing when you look at it, the incumbent saying 'see this burning car these shootings this boarded up shop it is Biden's fault' just doesn't make any sense.

Trump took a hit (and Biden got a boost) in the polls throughout June, to what extent that was down to the poor handling of Covid-19 as opposed to the BLM protests I don't think you can disentangle (or even if it would make sense to, the combination of Trump handling both so badly was probably part of the reaction).

But Trump's making racial/sexual issues the battleground can come back to bite him - Clinton got a real boost in her lead after 'grab them by the pussy', his comment's around Charlotteville coincide with his period of greatest disapproval. Now part of effect of such things tends to wear off, it's hard to tell but the slight narrowing of the polls recently could equally (I'm my personal opinion more likely) be explained as a return to the average as support for anything Trump has said on rioters.

There's a lot of dislike of Trump's handling of racial matters, and there's evidence that the US electorate feels differently about race in 2020 than 2016 (1, 2, 3, 4). There was a lot of support for the BLM protests, that's died back a bit (video) but Trump going on a full on racist spree could easily see support bounce back.

I think it is too early to say that Trump is going to make this centre of his campaign (or if he even can do very possible to see an event like a 2nd eve dominating the campaign), more he's just reacting to something in the news at the moment. And it's possible that opposition to the protests grows and benefits Trump, but I don't think that's nailed on.

EDIT: And even if the protests do play badly with some voters that not to say that it is necessarily in Biden's favour to go all out denouncing them. The whole electorate is so polarised that Biden may do better to show limited support for the protests, giving the Democrat-leaning base a reason to vote for him, stress his progressive credentials a bit.

 

[bimble]

This seems pretty convincing - and not good at all:
People predicting that trump will look like the winner on the night of the election and then afterwards when postal votes are counted he will be expected to concede defeat after all.

Exclusive: Bloomberg group warns Trump will appear to win big on election night

Way more Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans given partisan differences about fears of the coronavirus.

www.axios.com

I think it is too early to say that Trump is going to make this centre of his campaign (or if he even can do very possible to see an event like a 2nd eve dominating the campaign), more he's just reacting to something in the news at the moment. And it's possible that opposition to the protests grows and benefits Trump, but I don't think that's nailed on..

I don't think he's 'just reacting to something thats in the news', it looks to me that he is far more involved and invested than that in the story that he has every interest in continuing to dominate the news there, he has gone out of his way to praise the 'true patriots' on his side, and even seems to have now defended Rittenhaus.

 

[Pickman's model]

This seems pretty convincing - and not good at all:
People predicting that trump will look like the winner on the night of the election and then afterwards when postal votes are counted he will be expected to concede defeat after all.

Exclusive: Bloomberg group warns Trump will appear to win big on election night

Way more Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans given partisan differences about fears of the coronavirus.

www.axios.com

this is a man who refused to admit his inauguration wasn't the biggest ever, so the chances of him conceding something which actually matters seem scanty

e2a: if i was djt i would halt vote counting as soon as possible after the actual day of the election and burn the ballots which i would deride as biden's stuffed boxes. let's see them sue their way out of that one, i'd tweet

 

[bimble]

this is a man who refused to admit his inauguration wasn't the biggest ever, so the chances of him conceding something which actually matters seem scanty

yep. And has been laying the groundwork, saying postal votes cant be trusted, for weeks already.

 

[krink]

Trump will win again but not sure how their system works so which one do I vote for in the poll?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Trump will win again but not sure how their system works so which one do I vote for in the poll?

It's kind of similar to our constituency system. States mostly have all or nothing systems, with each state contributing delegates to an 'electoral college'. That's where the election is actually won or lost. So option 2. 'Trump will win a majority in the electoral college' is the one to go for.

 

[Streathamite]

e2a: if i was djt i would halt vote counting as soon as possible after the actual day of the election and burn the ballots which i would deride as biden's stuffed boxes. let's see them sue their way out of that one, i'd tweet

I may be wrong, but I don't think he has the actual power to do that