Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
538 is pretty good
Who does Urban think (not hope) will win the November US Presidential Election? (The Poll)
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redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
It's politics is pretty crap but the data analysis is generally good.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
yes - that's what i meant. good number crunching, probabilities, modelling
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redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Where are you getting those figures from? Both the FT and 538 (using an average of polls) have Biden leading by 8% at the moment. FiveThirtyEight never had Clinton leading by that much, although at her peak she was not far off it. However, unlike Clinton’s Biden's lead has been very constant, it has also been stronger, regularly polling over 50%, something that Clinton never did. Now that can all change but I think it is hard not to conclude that Biden is in a better position than Clinton was at this point.
I’ll have to check out the WSJ poll but I’d argue 28-31% could just be noise. On the economy stuff, well voters that place the most emphasis on the economy tend to be Republicans, so they are probably already Trump voters. But I also agree with Perry Bacon Jr (podcast, sorry) that the lens through which “the economy” is viewed is partisan.
This I absolutely do agree with, but there is such a strong anti-Trump vote that it plays strongly for Biden. I’ll admit I was surprised at the 2018 mid-terms how strong the anti-Trump vote was, it was obvious he was unpopular but the turnout and swing to the Democrats in those elections was huge. And support/opposition for Trump has not really varied a great deal since then, in fact the popular vote margin in 2018 was 8.6% for the Democrats, very similar to what Biden is polling at the moment.
Now I think the polls probably will tighten by November but if you look at the FT tracker linked to above, you currently have Texas listed as a toss-up state, I don't think Biden will win it but I also don't think it is totally impossible that Trump makes some more Covid-19 and/or race crap than could see him lose the popular vote by >5% in which case Texas could go blue.
Again I agree on the proposition but not the conclusion. You’re right about what Trump will try to do, but that’s largely what he’s being doing for the last 4 years. If voters have not been swayed by it now I don’t think they will be. Moreover, there’s good evidence that when Trump goes a offensive about BLM/race he actually loses support, see the loss of support back in July.
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Nylock
I hate 'these days'...
Hopefully bricked into a chimney breast...
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
He never drank an amontillado in his life.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Just leaving these here for further food for thought:
I’ll reply to Red Squirrel’s well argued reply over the weekend.
I’ll reply to Red Squirrel’s well argued reply over the weekend.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
tbf, there's always a post convention bounce, and everyone always thought it would be close.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
True regarding the post convention bounce, but of course Biden and the Democrats should also be benefiting from that
not-bono-ever
meh
trump now 1/1 in the punting world
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
agreed
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Regarding the Covid thing, if things have got better (and they are heading that way after a second peak) then it can still be presented as good news, “we’ve had a tough battle but we’ve defeated this thing”. There will be a ‘feelgood factor’ if it seems like people are emerging from this shitstorm, even if Trump is culpable for a lot of deaths this will be overlooked.
Interesting recent opinion piece from The Atlantic highlighting Biden’s, too little - too late failures in addressing what voters can plainly see.
This Is How Biden Loses
Nothing will harm a campaign like the wishful thinking, fearful hesitation, or sheer complacency that fails to address what voters can plainly see.
The mayhem seems to be continuing. When guests and speakers left the RNC they were physically attacked by angry crowds with little protection. Rand Paul has already been of Fox News expressing his terrifying experience and also noted that he believed many of the street crowd were paid agitators. Tensions and rhetoric seem to be rising.
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Serge Forward
Just enjoyin' my coffee.
When you put him on ignore and stop tagging him in threadsAww bollox... just when I foolishly thought Marty1 had been banned off here. When will it end?!?!
maomao
普費斯
That's a shit conspiracy theory. Why would you have to pay anyone to cave that piece of shit's skull in? I'd queue up to do it.
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
Interesting recent opinion piece from The Atlantic highlighting Biden’s, too little - too late failures in addressing what voters can plainly see.
This Is How Biden Loses
Nothing will harm a campaign like the wishful thinking, fearful hesitation, or sheer complacency that fails to address what voters can plainly see.www.google.com
The mayhem seems to be continuing. When guests and speakers left the RNC they were physically attacked by angry crowds with little protection. Rand Paul has already been of Fox News expressing his terrifying experience and also noted that he believed many of the street crowd were paid agitators. Tensions and rhetoric seem to be rising.
Fuck Rand Paul. Hope he shitted himself.
Serge Forward
Just enjoyin' my coffee.
Trouble is, the ignore facility makes some threads nonsensical. Take your point at tagging the cunt though.
editor
hiraethified
Explain why anyone should pay any attention to the garbage and lies spewed out by the right wing Fox News and what Rand Paul groundlessly 'believes' and why you think it's worth reposting it here. Think carefully before you reply because people are getting fed up with your relentless right wing chuck'n'dash vom-buckets polluting intelligent debate.Interesting recent opinion piece from The Atlantic highlighting Biden’s, too little - too late failures in addressing what voters can plainly see.
This Is How Biden Loses
Nothing will harm a campaign like the wishful thinking, fearful hesitation, or sheer complacency that fails to address what voters can plainly see.
The mayhem seems to be continuing. When guests and speakers left the RNC they were physically attacked by angry crowds with little protection. Rand Paul has already been of Fox News expressing his terrifying experience and also noted that he believed many of the street crowd were paid agitators. Tensions and rhetoric seem to be rising.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
TBF - The Atlantic article linked is a good read, the magazine does publish some good balanced stuff, it's certainly not a right wing outlet, it's biggest share-holder is the Emerson Collective - "a social change organization focused on education, immigration reform, the environment, media and journalism, and health."
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
The piece Marty is citing is not from Paul. It's a pretty bad article but as far as I can tell the author is a right-wing Democrat. C&P'd below in case anyone has problems with The Atlantic's paywall
-------
This Is How Biden Loses
Nothing will harm a campaign like the wishful thinking, fearful hesitation, or sheer complacency that fails to address what voters can plainly see.
AUGUST 28, 2020
George Packer
Here is a prediction about the November election: If Donald Trump wins, in a trustworthy vote, what’s happening this week in Kenosha, Wisconsin, will be one reason. Maybe the reason. And yet Joe Biden has it in his power to spare the country a second Trump term.
Events are unfolding with the inevitable logic of a nightmare. A white police officer shoots a Black man as he’s leaning into a car with his three sons inside—shoots him point-blank in the back, seven times, “as if he didn’t matter,” the victim’s father later says. If George Floyd was crushed to death by depraved indifference, Jacob Blake is the object of an attempted execution. Somehow, he survives—but his body is shattered, paralyzed from the waist down, maybe for life. Kenosha explodes in rage, the same rage that’s been igniting around the country all summer long, fading in Minneapolis only to flare up in Portland. In Kenosha, as elsewhere, what starts in peaceful protest soon leads to violence: cars burned, shops smashed, local businesses destroyed. Police and rioters incite one another to escalate; armed vigilantes take matters into their own hands; and a teenager from out of state kills two local men with an AR-15-style rifle. The authorities are overwhelmed and ineffectual, offering little in the way of information or protection. Within a couple of days, much of the small city is a ruined landscape.
The victim’s family demands justice. His mother, Julia Jackson, calls for something else, too. Two days after the shooting, with her son fighting for his life, she begins her public remarks softly, almost inaudibly, but her own words seem to give her growing strength, and finally a profound resonance. She says that her son would not be happy with the damage to his community. “As I have prayed for my son’s healing, physically, emotionally, and spiritually, I also have been praying, even before this, for the healing of our country,” Jackson says, and she goes on: “We are the United States. Have we been united? Do you understand what’s going to happen when we fall? Because a house that is against each other cannot stand. To all of the police officers, I’m praying for you and your families. To all of the citizens, my Black and brown sisters and brothers, I’m praying for you. I believe that you are an intelligent being just like the rest of us. Everybody, let’s use our hearts, our love, and our intelligence to work together to show the rest of the world how humans are supposed to treat each other. America is great when we behave greatly.”
Her words fall like a healing rain over the grief and the fires of this terrible year. She speaks to the whole country, to our shared humanity, and our desperation. Julia Jackson has given the essential speech of 2020, the one we most need to hear. And her last words—they seem to be directed at the president.
The day before, on Monday, the Republicans began their remote convention. The simultaneous mayhem in Kenosha seemed like part of the script, as it played into their main theme: that Biden is a tool of radical leftists who hate America, who want to bring the chaos of the cities they govern out to the suburbs where the real Americans live. The Republicans won’t let such an opportunity go to waste. “Law and order are on the ballot,” Vice President Mike Pence said on Wednesday night. Other speakers were harsher.
It’s no use dismissing their words as partisan talking points. They are effective ones, backed up by certain facts. Trump will bang this loud, ugly drum until Election Day. He knows that Kenosha has placed Democrats in a trap. They’ve embraced the protests and the causes that drive them. The third night of the Democratic convention was consumed with the language and imagery of protest—as if all Americans watching were activists.
On Monday, the day after Blake’s shooting, Biden and his vice-presidential nominee, Senator Kamala Harris, released statements expressing outrage. The next day, Biden’s spokesperson released a statement opposing “burning down communities and needless destruction.” And on Wednesday, Biden, after speaking with the Blake family, condemned both the initial incident and the subsequent destruction. “Burning down communities is not protest,” he pleaded in a video. “It’s needless violence.” He said the same after George Floyd’s killing.
How many Americans have heard him? In the crude terms of a presidential campaign, voters know that the Democrat means it when he denounces police brutality, but less so when he denounces riots. To reach the public and convince it otherwise, Biden has to go beyond boilerplate and make it personal, memorable.
Harris, a Black former prosecutor and now an advocate for police reform, seems uniquely positioned to speak to the crisis. But she has said little all week, which suggests that there might be things she doesn’t want to say. On Thursday, Harris directly addressed the events in Kenosha, affirming that Americans “must always defend peaceful protest and peaceful protesters. We should not confuse them with those looting and committing acts of violence.” She quickly moved on. Democratic leaders, from the nearly invisible mayor of Kenosha up to those on the presidential ticket, are reluctant to tarnish a just cause, amplify Republican attacks, or draw the wrath of their own progressive base (Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut deleted a tweet saying that both the Blake shooting and the riots were wrong after commenters accused him of equating the two). So Democrats continue to mute their response to the violence and hope it will subside, even though it has persisted straight through the summer.
In mid-August, a Pew Research Center poll found that the issue of violent crime ranks fifth in importance to registered voters—behind the economy, health care, the Supreme Court, and the pandemic, but ahead of foreign policy, guns, race, immigration, and climate change. The poll found a large partisan gap on the issue: three-quarters of Trump voters rated violent crime “very important,” second behind only the economy. Nonetheless, nearly half of Biden voters also rated it “very important.” Other polls show that, over the summer, Biden has lost some of the support he gained among older white Americans in the first months of the coronavirus pandemic.
With some exceptions, the media have been reluctant to shine a bright light on the summer’s violence—both the riots and the concurrent spike in violence. The New York Times ignored or downplayed the subject for weeks. One of its first major articles appeared in mid-August, under the headline “In the Wake of Covid-19 Lockdowns, a Troubling Surge in Homicides.” The piece argued that the crime surge had to do with the end of the lockdown that coincided with the beginning of summer, citing the skepticism of criminologists that “the increase is tied to any pullback by the police in response to criticism or defunding efforts,” and pointing to economic disruption and the spread of despair. But it also offered a different explanation, contradicting the thesis: “Police officials in several cities have said the protests have diverted officers from crime-fighting duty or emboldened criminals.”
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
(part 2)
After the 2016 election, the Times admitted that it had somehow missed the story, and it earnestly set about at self-correction. Like many other outlets, the paper sent reporters to talk to Americans who had put Trump in the White House. It was a new beat, almost a foreign bureau—heartland reporting—but that focus soon faded as the president’s daily depredations consumed the media’s attention. This election year, news organizations grown more activist might miss the story again, this time on principle—as they avoid stories that don’t support their preferred narrative. Trump supporters are hoping for it.
On Tuesday night, the CNN host Don Lemon warned his colleague Chris Cuomo that riots were hurting Biden and the Democrats: “Chris, as you know and I know, it’s showing up in the polls, it’s showing up in focus groups. It’s the only thing right now that’s sticking.” Lemon urged Biden to speak out about both police reform and violence. With Kenosha and the political conventions, the coverage seems to be changing. On Thursday, the Times ran a piece headlined “How Chaos in Kenosha Is Already Swaying Some Voters in Wisconsin.” Half a dozen Kenosha residents, reckoning with damaged buildings and businesses, expressed displeasure with the uncertain response of Democratic officials. Ellen Ferwerda, an antique store owner, “said that she was desperate for Trump to lose in November but that she had ‘huge concern’ the unrest in her town could help him win. She added that local Democratic leaders seemed hesitant to condemn the mayhem.”
Nothing will harm a campaign like the wishful thinking, fearful hesitation, or sheer complacency that fails to address what voters can plainly see. Kenosha gives Biden a chance to help himself and the country. Ordinarily it’s the incumbent president’s job to show up at the scene of a national tragedy and give a unifying speech. But Trump is temperamentally incapable of doing so and, in fact, has a political interest in America’s open wounds and burning cities.
Biden, then, should go immediately to Wisconsin, the crucial state that Hillary Clinton infamously ignored. He should meet the Blake family and give them his support and comfort. He should also meet Kenoshans like the small-business owners quoted in the Times piece, who doubt that Democrats care about the wreckage of their dreams. Then, on the burned-out streets, without a script, from the heart, Biden should speak to the city and the country. He should speak for justice and for safety, for reform and against riots, for the crying need to bring the country together. If he says these things half as well as Julia Jackson did, we might not have to live with four more years of Trump.
After the 2016 election, the Times admitted that it had somehow missed the story, and it earnestly set about at self-correction. Like many other outlets, the paper sent reporters to talk to Americans who had put Trump in the White House. It was a new beat, almost a foreign bureau—heartland reporting—but that focus soon faded as the president’s daily depredations consumed the media’s attention. This election year, news organizations grown more activist might miss the story again, this time on principle—as they avoid stories that don’t support their preferred narrative. Trump supporters are hoping for it.
On Tuesday night, the CNN host Don Lemon warned his colleague Chris Cuomo that riots were hurting Biden and the Democrats: “Chris, as you know and I know, it’s showing up in the polls, it’s showing up in focus groups. It’s the only thing right now that’s sticking.” Lemon urged Biden to speak out about both police reform and violence. With Kenosha and the political conventions, the coverage seems to be changing. On Thursday, the Times ran a piece headlined “How Chaos in Kenosha Is Already Swaying Some Voters in Wisconsin.” Half a dozen Kenosha residents, reckoning with damaged buildings and businesses, expressed displeasure with the uncertain response of Democratic officials. Ellen Ferwerda, an antique store owner, “said that she was desperate for Trump to lose in November but that she had ‘huge concern’ the unrest in her town could help him win. She added that local Democratic leaders seemed hesitant to condemn the mayhem.”
Nothing will harm a campaign like the wishful thinking, fearful hesitation, or sheer complacency that fails to address what voters can plainly see. Kenosha gives Biden a chance to help himself and the country. Ordinarily it’s the incumbent president’s job to show up at the scene of a national tragedy and give a unifying speech. But Trump is temperamentally incapable of doing so and, in fact, has a political interest in America’s open wounds and burning cities.
Biden, then, should go immediately to Wisconsin, the crucial state that Hillary Clinton infamously ignored. He should meet the Blake family and give them his support and comfort. He should also meet Kenoshans like the small-business owners quoted in the Times piece, who doubt that Democrats care about the wreckage of their dreams. Then, on the burned-out streets, without a script, from the heart, Biden should speak to the city and the country. He should speak for justice and for safety, for reform and against riots, for the crying need to bring the country together. If he says these things half as well as Julia Jackson did, we might not have to live with four more years of Trump.
maomao
普費斯
I think editor was referring to Marty1's actual post rather than the article he linked to.
Because a high profile US senator being attacked outside of the RNC is relevant to the topic of this thread and depicts the heightened tensions going on over there.
The Guardian have also covered this if not sparsely and perhaps understating the severity of the situation that he (RP) and others experienced upon exiting the event.
'Say her name': Rand Paul confronted by protesters over after Republican convention – video
After the incident, Paul tweeted to say that he had been 'attacked by an angry mob of over 100'.
maomao
普費斯
You didn't just report he was attacked, you reported the full conspiracy with paid for protestors. You've got form on claiming legitimate demonstrators are paid by rich agitators. It's straight up conspiracy theory and banned in the FAQ.Because a high profile US senator being attacked outside of the RNC is relevant to the topic of this thread and depicts the heightened tensions going on over there.
The Guardian have also covered this if not sparsely and perhaps understating the severity of the situation that he (RP) and others experienced upon exiting the event.
'Say her name': Rand Paul confronted by protesters over after Republican convention – video
After the incident, Paul tweeted to say that he had been 'attacked by an angry mob of over 100'.www.theguardian.com
And you lead with an article from a site you think is left wing so that you could shoehorn your daily right wing conspiracist meme into the thread.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Nothing in that video shows he was 'attacked', he was surrounded by police to protect him from the protesters that confronted him, that's a long way from being 'attacked'.
There’s more video online from other angles including other guests being physically pushed and verbally assaulted.
Rand Paul said he feared for his and his wife’s safety.
Looked incredibly intense from the various footage I’ve seen.
bimble
floofy
yep read that Atlantic article earlier today and found it pretty convincing tbh. Without a doubt the President is absolutely loving and milking the current situation of violence in the streets, he tweets 'LAW AND ORDER!' at least once every day. What he means by that is another question but people who live outside of cities and are just scared by what they are seeing on tv every night might be convinced to vote for him out of simple fear.
BlanketAddict
Well-Known Member
My hunch says a Trump win.
The Republican machine just seems to be a lot more effective in manipulation than the Democrat one.
The Republican machine just seems to be a lot more effective in manipulation than the Democrat one.
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