US election 2020 thread

[frogwoman]

Why aren’t they what do they say? Did they also not vote last time?

Yeah a lot of them didn't vote last time, basically stuff about the drugs bills 30 years ago and failure to tackle poverty in Democratic run states etc.

 

[frogwoman]

There's also a bit of anti 'liberal elite' stuff too

 

[bimble]

Yeah, I’d imagine that of the people who did vote last time but won’t this time most voted trump, The ones who held their noses for Hilary will do that again won’t they.

 

[killer b]

Chill out, it's going to be fine. Joe will crush, Donald will go quietly, and then the dems can get to work on crushing their real enemy - their own left wing.

 

[moochedit]

aye the electoral collage way of voting is still a problem

almost like the way the tory government carved up the voting system in the united kingdom

Yeah our fptp system is shite as well. I think we had at least one election in the 1950s where labour got most popular votes but the tories won most seats. And of course parties can win with less than 50% of the votes even if they do have more votes than the other parties. What makes it even worse in the usa electoral college is a big block of seats for a big state can all go to one party that got the most votes.

 

[moochedit]

Chill out, it's going to be fine. Joe will crush, Donald will go quietly, and then the dems can get to work on crushing their real enemy - their own left wing.

I for one welcome our new democratic overlords.

 

[JTG]

Here's a table of when states can start verifying and then counting their early votes:

Table 16: When Absentee/Mail Ballot Processing and Counting Can Begin

Processing absentee ballots can begin before they are actually counted. This table shows when each state's can begin processing and counting absentee/mail ballots.

www.ncsl.org

As you can see it's a mess! No standardisation at all - AL won't even start processing the absentee votes until noon on election day, Connecticut it's "at the discretion of local registrars" so basically any time they fancy

 

[petee]

increasingly confident that trump is going to get flattened.

i'm not, as on election day alot of people will vote the party. so far the discussion has been about trump and not-trump, which is perfectly valid, but when it comes time i imagine many trump-shy people will still tick the republican box, since democrats are socialist baby-eaters. biden can win surely but, again, i'll believe it when i see it.

 

[JTG]

Meanwhile 10,000 absentee ballots in NC (which is statistically tied in the polls) are frozen for various deficiencies and can't be touched until state and federal courts allow the state to move forward. So that's cool

 

[Streathamite]

I just have a horrible feeling he's still might win

I agree that complacency is always a really bad idea, but in this instance, the ;polls have been too much to Biden's advantage, too solid, for too long, and - crucially - in the right places.
it's worth reirterating: he only needs to do a tiny bit better than HRC to win.

 

[killer b]

fairly sure we can be as complacent as we like and it won't make the slightest difference to the result tbf.

 

[two sheds]

you don't think Democrats read urban??

 

[JTG]

I agree that complacency is always a really bad idea, but in this instance, the ;polls have been too much to Biden's advantage, too solid, for too long, and - crucially - in the right places.
it's worth reirterating: he only needs to do a tiny bit better than HRC to win.

I've not seen a single piece of evidence to suggest DT will do better than last time (when he won by 80,000 votes in exactly the right places) and loads to suggest he will do significantly worse. Biden isn't Hillary and Trump isn't an unknown outsider candidate any more.

 

[two sheds]

I'm going to be pessimistic until Nov 3rd at least

17 days

 

[petee]

17 days

yup, and the "october surprise" not only busted (h. biden's emails) but looks just ridiculous.

 

[JTG]

yup, and the "october surprise" not only busted (h. biden's emails) but looks just ridiculous.

Only remaining October Surprise may be Covid. Which is spiking especially in rust belt swing states and the public overwhelmingly disapproves of the President's handling of it. Bad news for him.

 

[Streathamite]

Shit, if the people on my facebook were any indication of the political mood of the world, we'd live in a solid red socialist paradise already.

same here, like gravitates towards like

 

[Kaka Tim]

another factor is that he's spouted so much utter bullshit that no matter what they chuck at biden its going to be ignored by everyone bar his base.

 

[kebabking]

I'm not talking about it - I know what I'd like to happen, I know what I think will happen and what I fear will happen, but I'm afraid that 2020 has pulled enough you have got to be fucking joking moments for me to just hide in my bunker. If the sun warms the grass on 5th November then great, but if the legions of Hell march ever onwards then I'm not going to be caught dancing naked in the fields like some hippy on solstice morning.

I'll breathe a sign of relief if Biden wins on the 4th/5th, but it's not over until the inauguration in January.

The Vampire doesn't die when you shove the cross in its face - only the stake, the beheading, and the fire see's it turn to dust, and until then it's not dead.

 

[JTG]

another factor is that he's spouted so much utter bullshit that no matter what they chuck at biden its going to be ignored by everyone bar his base.

Again, very few undecideds. There just aren't as many people to nudge as there were in 2016

 

[Streathamite]

aye the electoral collage way of voting is still a problem

almost like the way the tory government carved up the voting system in the united kingdom

done by exactly the same sort of elite: practically everyone at the Constitutional convention was either landed gentry (eg washington), prosperous merchant-industrialist (Franklin) or equally prosperous lawyer type (Henry, Adams)
and with the same common end goal in mind; to ensure the plebs never got their hands on any real power (the original Electoral College was precisely that, a gathering of the elite men, rubberstamped/elected by the masses, to decide the presidency for themselves).

 

[two sheds]

And if he wins, will he make material changes that prevent Trumpies Mk II and III winning the next election for the fascists?

 

[Streathamite]

Yeah our fptp system is shite as well. I think we had at least one election in the 1950s where labour got most popular votes but the tories won most seats. And of course parties can win with less than 50% of the votes even if they do have more votes than the other parties. What makes it even worse in the usa electoral college is a big block of seats for a big state can all go to one party that got the most votes.

It's also weighted unfairly in favour of the most rural and least-populated states

 

[Raheem]

another factor is that he's spouted so much utter bullshit that no matter what they chuck at biden its going to be ignored by everyone bar his base.

Only worry is that it may come from somewhere with more credibility than Trump. Last time, they roped the FBI in.

 

[Streathamite]

And if he wins, will he make material changes that prevent Trumpies Mk II and III winning the next election for the fascists?

Depends if they live up to the patform, and the promises made to the likes of warren and Sanders.

 

[Ax^]

quite sure he like to dangle the presidency in front of his daughter because of his own twisted sexual appetites

 

[killer b]

Depends if they live up to the patform, and the promises made to the likes of warren and Sanders.

you're cute.

 

[JTG]

It's also weighted unfairly in favour of the most rural and least-populated states

As is the Senate. Dems can boil maximum piss by getting through statehood for DC and Puerto Rico and get four more Senators as a short term fix for this

 

[Crispy]

he only needs to do a tiny bit better than HRC to win.

And if he wins, will he make material changes that prevent Trumpies Mk II and III winning the next election for the fascists?

Only if the democrats win House and Senate.
And then only if all the (D) reps and senators agree with the kinds of nuclear options required ie. enlarging the supreme court, statehood for DC and Puerto RIco, gerrymandering review etc.

 

[Streathamite]

you're cute.

actually, fair enough, let me amend that; If they fulfil both the letter and spirit of the possible progressive interpretation of a promising, (for mainstream American Politics) but frustratingly vague and woolly platform, they might just do enough to ensure that all those who are turning out for them, and investing so much hopes in them, don't feel bitterly disappointed, so much so that next time round they say 'sod it, why bother?'

The platform, FWIW, is arguably the most progressive platform any nominated candidate has stood on since Mondale, '84 - but chriist, that bar is so very, very low.

If they don't do that, they won't achieve that modest aim, and Trump 2.0 (probably a slightly less mental version) will happen. Becuase there is precisely zero the GOP hierarchy can do to stop such a candidate both standing, and winning their nomination