US election 2020 thread

[JTG]

Just gonna throw in there something that could be fun (to a certain definition of fun!): GA state law requires Senate candidates to gain over 50% of the vote before being elected (it's a Jim Crow law and LA is the only other state that has this). This means a further run off election between the top two candidates is needed if nobody reaches the threshold.
Both Senate seats in Georgia are up for grabs this year and it looks like both will be heading for a run off - in the election for the seat that was scheduled for an election this year, a Libertarian candidate is polling in single digits and likely to be spoiler for the 50% threshold. In the special election caused by the resignation of the previous Senator, it's a free for all of multiple R & D candidates so again, likely to cause a run off.
Now, imagine that when the General is done, a President elected and a Dem House is maintained but the Senate is tied 49-49 or it's 50-48 with the 48 being the party of the President... effectively we would have a single state poll for control of the Federal government in January.

 

[NoXion]

so what should i write huh? rubbish ? everything rubbish which im not going to read at all ? huh?

Try actually adding content to this forum, instead of posting shit. Because right now you are coming across as one of those idiot spammers who think that they can fly under the radar by making random content-free posts.

For example, what are your thoughts on the 2020 US elections?

 

[Dogsauce]

Still have that horrible gut feeling that the ‘motivated to vote’ thing might bring out more Trump voters - he’s seen as the underdog, and a lot of supporters are properly determined and mental and will do all they can to vote and get others out too. We don’t see the world through the wonky prism of Fox News and a certain slant of Facebook bullshit. There’s stuff going round on WhatsApp pushing Latinos to Trump in Florida etc.

At the same time I know there will be strongly motivated opposition to Trump and hope that the big early turnout is a reflection of that (the areas it’s happening in would suggest this). Fingers crossed for a UK 1997-style result, not a 2015 one.

 

[killer b]

he’s seen as the underdog

The president of the united states of america, the most powerful individual in the world, is seen as the underdog. righto.

 

[Dogsauce]

& deep in our hearts we’re all hoping for that massive public bad loser mega tantrum and meltdown, shell-shocked Fox News presenters, Twitter full of Nelson Munce gifs etc.

 

[Dogsauce]

The president of the united states of america, the most powerful individual in the world, is seen as the underdog. righto.

In the election, yes. He’s way behind in the polls, the news is all against him and so on. I’m not saying it makes sense, but playing the insurgent battling a system against him has been his pitch all along.

 

[killer b]

It doesn't make sense because it's not true. He's not 'seen as the underdog' except among a relatively small number of total headbangers who were voting for him anyway.

 

[bimble]

& deep in our hearts we’re all hoping for that massive public bad loser mega tantrum and meltdown, shell-shocked Fox News presenters, Twitter full of Nelson Munce gifs etc.

All i want is footage of him leaving the white house being put to the benny hill theme tune .

 

[moochedit]

EV votes are the same as the state's Congress delegation so PR would be the same as all the other micro states - three. It would receive two Senators and one Representative (unless PR's population is surprisingly large, which I don't think it is). Same goes for DC.
So overall effect would be nothing compared to, say, Texas swinging Blue but yes, the Senate advantage would be more significant.

Being bored i googled it and PR has a population of about 3 million which this article below says would give it about 5 seats in the lower house. Like all states it would get 2 seats in the senate. I think thats means it would get 7 EC votes.

Here's what would happen to US politics if Puerto Rico became a state

The devastation in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria has brought the small island off the coast of Florida -- home to 3.4 million American citizens -- into the spotlight.

www.cnn.com

List of U.S. states and territories by population - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[teqniq]

 

[TomUS]

Still have that horrible gut feeling that the ‘motivated to vote’ thing might bring out more Trump voters - he’s seen as the underdog, and a lot of supporters are properly determined and mental and will do all they can to vote and get others out too. We don’t see the world through the wonky prism of Fox News and a certain slant of Facebook bullshit. There’s stuff going round on WhatsApp pushing Latinos to Trump in Florida etc.

At the same time I know there will be strongly motivated opposition to Trump and hope that the big early turnout is a reflection of that (the areas it’s happening in would suggest this). Fingers crossed for a UK 1997-style result, not a 2015 one.

I voted yesterday.....for Biden obviously. A paper ballot received in the mail and returned in a book return slot at my local library branch. It won't make much difference since I'm in a solid blue state but the bigger the popular vote margin, the less likely Trump can steal the election hoprfully. My gut feel is a Democratic landslide. But then I was sure Hillary would win last time. Just can't understand the % of voters still supporting the orange Musssolini.

 

[Streathamite]

Yeah I just have a feeling that the republicans are going to try to hang onto power by any means necessary.

They will certainly try everything, but if the results show a thumping, there's absolutely f-all thery can do

 

[Streathamite]

It's a shame Hunter S. Thompson isn't around to witness the Trump phenomena... his book 'Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72' - is superb... well at least until it goes nuts towards the end. But Trump is up there in bonkers terms with any of the characters Thompson created..

Pretty sure most of the campaign 'characters' were real people

 

[Crispy]

EV votes are the same as the state's Congress delegation so PR would be the same as all the other micro states - three. It would receive two Senators and one Representative (unless PR's population is surprisingly large, which I don't think it is). Same goes for DC.
So overall effect would be nothing compared to, say, Texas swinging Blue but yes, the Senate advantage would be more significant.

PR has a population of 3.2m, as does Utah.
Utah has 2 senators and 4 reps, so 6 electoral college votes.
DC would be 2 senators and 1 rep, so 3 EC votes.

 

[Streathamite]

What sort of 'material changes' do you have in mind?

Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, federal reform of election procedures to stop GOP-controlled states getting up to the same tricks again, federal reflation of the economies in the rustbelt states to win back all those bluecollar voters, a Green New Deal programme to help retrain and reskill bluecollar workers., rejoining the Paris treaty.
That would be a good place to start.

 

[Streathamite]

What's the likelyhood of Puerto Ricans wanting to be (more) a part of the US, after the way the gobshite alternated between ignoring the victims, playing down numbers and chucking bog roll at them? Not familiar if there's a strong pro-US statehood movement...

I think Puerto Ricans realise that the USA will comfortably outlive Donald Trump's political career.

 

[Streathamite]

Still have that horrible gut feeling that the ‘motivated to vote’ thing might bring out more Trump voters - he’s seen as the underdog, and a lot of supporters are properly determined and mental

He's only seen as 'the underdog' in the eyes of his hardcore base, and:
a) they were always going to vote for him anyway
b) There's not enough of them to get him over the line. He needed more than them last time, and got it. I doubt very much he will get those extra voters this time, simply because as the incumbent he has to stand on his record, and his record's pretyy rubbish.

 

[Streathamite]

Anyway, my pet county of Harris had a slight fall in early votes yesterday (first sub-100,000 day) but nearly 600,000 people have now turned out in Houston. That's nearly a quarter of the electorate and over 40% of 2016's total turn out.
Across the US, nearly 27m people have voted, over 19% of the '16 total. Again I will emphasise that these people are all voting in a Biden +10 polling environment.

That's a bloody enormous early vote. Pretty much unprecedented.

 

[Streathamite]

playing the insurgent battling a system against him has been his pitch all along.

sure - but you really can't play that card if you've been the President for the past four years. People tend to ask just what you have been doing all that time.

 

[krtek a houby]

sure - but you really can't play that card if you've been the President for the past four years. People tend to ask just what you have been doing all that time.

Tweeting, mostly. And having meltdown tantrums when criticized.

Be glad when he's finished.

 

[JTG]

That's a bloody enormous early vote. Pretty much unprecedented.

Worth knowing that where pollsters have produced high/low turnout models (eg Monmouth University who release polls of registered voters and 'likely' voters only), the high turnout model has Biden further ahead. So high turnout is good.

 

[Streathamite]

Worth knowing that where pollsters have produced high/low turnout models (eg Monmouth University who release polls of registered voters and 'likely' voters only), the high turnout model has Biden further ahead. So high turnout is good.

even better.

 

[Streathamite]

Tweeting, mostly. And having meltdown tantrums when criticized.

Be glad when he's finished.

well - precisely!

 

[Streathamite]

But then I was sure Hillary would win last time. Just can't understand the % of voters still supporting the orange Musssolini.

I can. Ultra-loyalist GOP voters, racists who loathe the idea of a BME candifdate even being VP, bigots, Trump cultists, the wealthy and none-too-liberal....it adds up. Still not enough for him to win.

 

[prunus]

I think Puerto Ricans realise that the USA will comfortably outlive Donald Trump's political career.

I think that’s the hope but it’s not definitely a foregone conclusion.

 

[teqniq]

Heh:

 

[killer b]

Heh:

View attachment 234945

this really isn't the dunk you think it is.

 

[teqniq]

Whilst I'm not entirely sure what you mean by 'dunk' - I just though it was somewhat amusing, why might that be?

 

[JTG]

I can. Ultra-loyalist GOP voters, racists who loathe the idea of a BME candifdate even being VP, bigots, Trump cultists, the wealthy and none-too-liberal....it adds up. Still not enough for him to win.

Don't forget the right wingers who fled socialist governments in Latin America. Loads of them in Florida

 

[killer b]

Whilst I'm not entirely sure what you mean by 'dunk' - I just though it was somewhat amusing, why might that be?

because you don't understand that the main reason Trump is in the white house is because he isn't some technocrat career politician?