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US election 2020 thread

killer b said:
because you don't understand that the main reason Trump is in the white house is because he isn't some technocrat career politician?
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Yeah I do understand that. Elected on a ticket of 'drain the swamp' amongst other things so seen as a panacea to what some people see as the Washington elite, people like Kirstie Alley it would seem. That went well eh?
 
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JTG said:
Don't forget the right wingers who fled socialist governments in Latin America. Loads of them in Florida
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Yes, absolutely, those too. Fortunately, the cubans amongst them are pretty much dying out, and I don't think thei8r children and grandchildren will necessarily share their politics, or see wot Fiden dun in 1960 as a good reason to stay loyal to the Republicans
 
killer b said:
It's the main reason he won the Republican nomination, without which...
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I think it was also because his nativist, right-populsit schtick amost exactly chimed with the direction the GOP grasroots had been travelling in since roughly 2010 (start of the Tea party caucus), plus that all his opponents badly underestimated him. Plus, his message was also aimed 100% at bluecollar workers in the midwest/rustbelt, in a way that no candidate for either of the two main parties (except sanders) had even tried to do since roughly the 1980s
In short, it wasn't as simple or black-and-white as you seem to be saying it is.
 
saying something is the main reason isn't saying it's the only reason dude.

Regarding the election itself, the republicans outperformed Trump further down the ballot in 2016 - they were likely on course to win with someone else in the seat too, possibly by a bigger margin.
 
Seen a couple of state polls just now where the Biden lead is stable but both candidates are up from the same poll five weeks ago and their totals add up to 97%. Again, those undecideds are becoming rarer than rocking horse shit and imo makes the race more impervious to any late surprise events.
 
I do not have the same sense of humour as the Trumps.

thehill.com

Lara Trump defends president’s rhetoric after ‘lock her up’ chants about Whitmer at rally: ‘He was having fun’

President Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, defended him on Sunday after he drew criticism over “lock her up” chants his crowd directed toward Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) at hi…
thehill.com thehill.com

“But I don’t look at threats based on what party are the recipients,” he continued. “My question is, shouldn’t everybody just tone it down, including your father-in-law?”

“He wasn’t doing anything, I don’t think, to provoke people to threaten this woman at all. He was having fun at a Trump rally, and, quite frankly, there are bigger issues than this right now for everyday Americans,” Lara Trump responded, saying that “people want to get the country reopened” and “they want to get back to work.”

“There are issues at hand here that are bigger than just keeping everybody locked down. So, I think people are frustrated, and, look, the president was at a rally. It’s a fun, light atmosphere. Of course he wasn’t encouraging people to threaten this woman. That’s ridiculous,” she added.

“Well, I don’t think 'lock her up' is fun. But let’s move on,” Tapper said before continuing the interview.
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Ya gotta laugh at how pathetic this is.

www.cnn.com

Analysis: Trump continues bizarre appeals to suburban women as he campaigns in Covid hotspots

If President Donald Trump loses his reelection bid in November, it will be in part because of his fundamental misunderstanding of the beliefs of "suburban women," whom he has tried to win back with a series of bizarre and racist appeals that seem more targeted to a stereotype from the 1950s and...
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

Many of the female voters who have abandoned Trump recoil from his divisive language and disapprove of both his handling of race relations and the pandemic. But he has tried to convince them to support him through a campaign of fear and xenophobia, with claims about the Democratic agenda that plunge deep into the realm of the ridiculous and would be believed only by the most naïve, low-information voters.

"Would you like a nice low-income housing project next to your suburban beautiful ranch style house? Generally speaking, no," Trump said in Muskegon. "I saved your suburbs -- women -- suburban women, you're supposed to love Trump," he said.

The President went on to make the ludicrous claim that Biden and Democrats want to overwhelm Michigan neighborhoods with refugees from Syria, Somalia and Yemen, and "poorly vetted migrants from jihadist regions."
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No, they are not supposed to love Trump :D
 
killer b said:
saying something is the main reason isn't saying it's the only reason dude.
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I never said it was - simply it was more complex than you seem to say
Regarding the election itself, the republicans outperformed Trump further down the ballot in 2016 - they were likely on course to win with someone else in the seat too, possibly by a bigger margin.
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You can't be sure of that - it would depend on who else won, how they framed their appeal., and who they aimed it at. Too many variables and unknowns, in other words.
 
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killer b said:
It doesn't make sense because it's not true. He's not 'seen as the underdog' except among a relatively small number of total headbangers who were voting for him anyway.
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But let us never underestimate the number of people who are enjoying having a president who bullies and insults people they dislike, such as women, immigrants and black people (who are getting too 'uppity') even if he does nothing whatsoever to improve their own situation. What matters is he's making it worse for the people they believe now have the whip hand over them.
 
killer b said:
Sure, those guys are in the bag for trump. Don't overestimate them either though - they aren't a majority, or anything like one.
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Yup. The available evidence is that nearly every demographic group has moved away from Trump - yes, even non-college educated whites.

We also really, really need to remember that he won by literally 80,000 votes in the three states he needed to win. And that when we assess how 'wrong' the predictions were, 538's eve-of-poll analysis overestimated Clinton's vote share by half a point and underestimated Trump's by 1 point. They weren't 'off', they were very nearly spot on and their final odds of 70/30 Clinton weren't wrong, we just happened to live through the 30.

2016's polling as the campaign went on was a ride and the Comey letter dealt just enough of a fatal blow with the right people. By contrast, polls in 2020 have barely moved since March and it's hard to think what would move the needle at this stage.

Trump's base is Trump's base but it's not gonna win him the election
 
trump looks like exactly like someone desperately flailing around and slinging shit. hes toast and he knows it. I mean - having a pop at suburban mums for being ingrates for not supporting him is a pretty... unconventional... way to win votes. most politicians wait until after an election defeat before blaming the voters.
Im hoping he will get more and more demented and angry as we get closer to his humiliating defeat - shades of "downfall" for sure.
 
Kaka Tim said:
trump looks like exactly like someone desperately flailing around and slinging shit. hes toast and he knows it. I mean - having a pop at suburban mums for being ingrates for not supporting him is a pretty... unconventional... way to win votes. most politicians wait until after an election defeat before blaming the voters.
Im hoping he will get more and more demented and angry as we get closer to his humiliating defeat - shades of "downfall" for sure.
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I might start enjoying it much more the day after the election :)
 
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