US election 2020 thread

[JTG]

While we're on about untangling GOP fuckery, the Texas state legislature could very well flip Blue, even if Biden doesn't win it. That will provide a huge opportunity for redistricting in the state and unwinding some of the gerrymanders they have there. If you want to see how silly it is, look at the shape of the Texas second congressional district (Houston suburbs).
Feeds back to my pet subject of turnout and pet county of Harris. Huge turnout means easier GOTV operation for Dems and chance to turnout infrequent voters who usually skew Democratic. The more they can turn out in Texas the bigger difference they can make. Once Texas goes Blue that's it, the GOP are fucked forever

 

[Streathamite]

Only if the democrats win House and Senate.
And then only if all the (D) reps and senators agree with the kinds of nuclear options required ie. enlarging the supreme court, statehood for DC and Puerto RIco, gerrymandering review etc.

Agreed. If they've any sense they'll say 'fuck bipartisanship, fuck consensus' and go shit or bust on all those things (and practically everything else) because if there is one lesson they really should have learnt from the ;past 4 years, it is that there is absolutely no sense on trying to play nice with the Republicans.
However, this is the Dems, so they'll probably bottle it as per usual.

 

[Streathamite]

As is the Senate. Dems can boil maximum piss by getting through statehood for DC and Puerto Rico and get four more Senators as a short term fix for this

Yes, absolutely, and there are impeccable democratic arguments for doing so.

 

[two sheds]

Voter suppression should be a federal offense with prison as punishment.

Lock them up, lock them up ...

 

[Streathamite]

Once Texas goes Blue that's it, the GOP are fucked forever

Yep! And the demographic trends are hugely promising. A quick heads-up to all Dems; brush up on your Spanish. Hola, Amigos nuevos!

 

[Streathamite]

Voter suppression should be a federal offense with prison as punishment.

Unfortunately, it's not only 100% legal, it's practically both a thriving mini-industry, and an embedded part of the American Polity.

 

[petee]

Only worry is that it may come from somewhere with more credibility than Trump. Last time, they roped the FBI in.

maybe not this time

White House slams FBI chief Wray over voter fraud testimony

FBI Director Christopher Wray faced criticism from the White House for the second time in a week on Friday when President Donald Trump's chief of staff questioned his ability to detect voter fraud as the November election draws near.

www.reuters.com

 

[JTG]

Agreed. If they've any sense they'll say 'fuck bipartisanship, fuck consensus' and go shit or bust on all those things (and practically everything else) because if there is one lesson they really should have learnt from the ;past 4 years, it is that there is absolutely no sense on trying to play nice with the Republicans.
However, this is the Dems, so they'll probably bottle it as per usual.

Another reason they really need to win 53 or so Senate seats - to avoid as many awkward DINOs (like Bollier if she wins in Kansas) as possible

Yep! And the demographic trends are hugely promising. A quick heads-up to all Dems; brush up on your Spanish. Hola, Amigos nuevos!

Indeed. Another thing re: Texas - the higher turnout goes, the more we know that the generally lower turnout Latino group are voting. And they're overwhelmingly Dem. If Texas turnout is, say, over 10m this time then it's going Blue

 

[Streathamite]

Another reason they really need to win 53 or so Senate seats - to avoid as many awkward DINOs (like Bollier if she wins in Kansas) as possible


Indeed. Another thing re: Texas - the higher turnout goes, the more we know that the generally lower turnout Latino group are voting. And they're overwhelmingly Dem. If Texas turnout is, say, over 10m this time then it's going Blue

¡Oh, ven ese hermoso día!

 

[Streathamite]

Only worry is that it may come from somewhere with more credibility than Trump. Last time, they roped the FBI in.

Problem for Trump there is, that he's spent such a large part fo the past four years pissing all over every 'credible' public sector body, that I doubt there's a single person runing any such body that would xcross the street to slash on him if he was on fire.

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah I just have a feeling that the republicans are going to try to hang onto power by any means necessary.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm starting to believe this could be a wipeout now. Sometimes the polls are right - look at NZ today. US democracy is messy, corrupt and frankly pretty rotten, but that only really comes into play with close calls. Not much the Reps can do if they get tonked.

 

[Hollis]

Watched the Trump rally in Geogia today on replay... fortunately I managed to doze off at various points... I know political rallys in general aren't exactly platforms for eruditeness.. but still staggering the 60+ minutes of stream of consciouness bullshit... even the crowd must of found most of it boring..

I'm reluctant to believe the polls... I won't believe it till it happens... I think Florida could definitely go Trump's way.

 

[weltweit]

Trump has had his turn.

 

[Hollis]

It's a shame Hunter S. Thompson isn't around to witness the Trump phenomena... his book 'Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72' - is superb... well at least until it goes nuts towards the end. But Trump is up there in bonkers terms with any of the characters Thompson created..

 

[JTG]

It's a shame Hunter S. Thompson isn't around to witness the Trump phenomena... his book 'Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72' - is superb... well at least until it goes nuts towards the end. But Trump is up there in bonkers terms with any of the characters Thompson created..

Nixon was real mate

 

[Hollis]

Nixon was real mate

Yes indeed.... dunno if you've read the book but Thompson is liberal (and very funny) with his embellishments..

 

[JTG]

Yes indeed.... dunno if you've read the book but Thompson is liberal (and very funny) with his embellishments..

Ages ago, it was great

 

[Wilf]

Yeah our fptp system is shite as well. I think we had at least one election in the 1950s where labour got most popular votes but the tories won most seats. And of course parties can win with less than 50% of the votes even if they do have more votes than the other parties. What makes it even worse in the usa electoral college is a big block of seats for a big state can all go to one party that got the most votes.

Nerd point: one of the 1974 general elections worked the other way round with Lab getting more seats but less votes.

 

[redsquirrel]

And if he wins, will he make material changes that prevent Trumpies Mk II and III winning the next election for the fascists?

What sort of 'material changes' do you have in mind?

 

[Yossarian]

What sort of 'material changes' do you have in mind?

Abolishing the Electoral College would be a good start, though since three-quarters of states would need to consent to the change in the Constitution required, there's zero chance of that actually happening.

Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico might be more achievable - I don't think whatever electoral votes Puerto Rico received would sway many elections, though it would help balance the Senate better.

 

[krtek a houby]

Abolishing the Electoral College would be a good start, though since three-quarters of states would need to consent to the change in the Constitution required, there's zero chance of that actually happening.

Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico might be more achievable - I don't think whatever electoral votes Puerto Rico received would sway many elections, though it would help balance the Senate better.

What's the likelyhood of Puerto Ricans wanting to be (more) a part of the US, after the way the gobshite alternated between ignoring the victims, playing down numbers and chucking bog roll at them? Not familiar if there's a strong pro-US statehood movement...

 

[moochedit]

What's the likelyhood of Puerto Ricans wanting to be (more) a part of the US, after the way the gobshite alternated between ignoring the victims, playing down numbers and chucking bog roll at them? Not familiar if there's a strong pro-US statehood movement...

They are having a referendum on the issue same day as the us election. Non-binding as the us congress would need to approve it. Polls quoted in the wiki article below suggest the majority will approve it.

2020 Puerto Rican status referendum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[dara]

best post.

 

[NoXion]

best post.

good post.

 

[dara]

so what should i write huh? rubbish ? everything rubbish which im not going to read at all ? huh?

 

[dara]

thanks for the banm

 

[krtek a houby]

best post.

pest? host?

 

[JTG]

Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico might be more achievable - I don't think whatever electoral votes Puerto Rico received would sway many elections, though it would help balance the Senate better.

EV votes are the same as the state's Congress delegation so PR would be the same as all the other micro states - three. It would receive two Senators and one Representative (unless PR's population is surprisingly large, which I don't think it is). Same goes for DC.
So overall effect would be nothing compared to, say, Texas swinging Blue but yes, the Senate advantage would be more significant.

 

[JTG]

Anyway, my pet county of Harris had a slight fall in early votes yesterday (first sub-100,000 day) but nearly 600,000 people have now turned out in Houston. That's nearly a quarter of the electorate and over 40% of 2016's total turn out.
Across the US, nearly 27m people have voted, over 19% of the '16 total. Again I will emphasise that these people are all voting in a Biden +10 polling environment.