US election 2020 thread

[JTG]

I think that's quite a lot of the appeal. People have had enough of all the crazy, scary shit. Suddenly, bland and boring becomes attractive.

This would also seem to chime with the apparently low numbers of undecideds. If you can't form an opinion now, well...

 

[moochedit]

This would also seem to chime with the apparently low numbers of undecideds. If you can't form an opinion now, well...

At this stage anyone who says they don't have an opinion is probably a shy Trump voter.

 

[Streathamite]

I believe just under 17m Texans are registered to vote, up from 15m in 2016

Excellent because
a) if they could be arsed to rgister, it's more likely they'll be arsed to vote
and
b) the number of those 2 million extra who'll vote for Trump is very, very small indeed

 

[Streathamite]

This would also seem to chime with the apparently low numbers of undecideds. If you can't form an opinion now, well...

absolutely. You'd have had to have been in a coma for most of the past 4 years.

 

[JTG]

absolutely. You'd have had to have been in a coma for most of the past 4 years.

There are battleground states where the numbers of undecideds/third party voters are lower than Biden's poll lead. This is not good for the President

Just throwing in that I just saw a Republican leaning pollster drop a Missouri Trump +6 poll. He won Missouri by 18.5 points four years ago

 

[JTG]

At this stage anyone who says they don't have an opinion is probably a shy Trump voter.

I've actually seen analyses in certain southern states where there are a relatively high number of undecided black voters. The assumption has to be that if they go out to vote then they're not voting for Donald Trump. I think GA had recent polls showing Biden only getting 75% of the black vote, which just isn't going to happen. He's getting 90.

 

[bimble]

absolutely. You'd have had to have been in a coma for most of the past 4 years.

There’s probably not a massive number of them but some of the undecideds will be torn because of personal stuff, trump being such a cult and so deeply divisive. Like my weird Florida aunt says she’s undecided now because of the family drama of people (her grandchildren etc) begging her not to vote for him. Genuinely don’t know what she’ll do on the day.

 

[two sheds]

encouraging - go grandchildren

 

[Streathamite]

Just throwing in that I just saw a Republican leaning pollster drop a Missouri Trump +6 poll. He won Missouri by 18.5 points four years ago

bloody fuck!
That's a simply enormous drop.
even for a Southern state, albeit Upper South (for those who don't know, Missouri is quite different, culturally and socially, to the likes of Alabama and Mississippi

 

[Streathamite]

I've actually seen analyses in certain southern states where there are a relatively high number of undecided black voters. The assumption has to be that if they go out to vote then they're not voting for Donald Trump. I think GA had recent polls showing Biden only getting 75% of the black vote, which just isn't going to happen. He's getting 90.

Agreed, and no surprise there.

 

[Streathamite]

There’s probably not a massive number of them but some of the undecideds will be torn because of personal stuff, trump being such a cult and so deeply divisive. Like my weird Florida aunt says she’s undecided now because of the family drama of people (her grandchildren etc) begging her not to vote for him. Genuinely don’t know what she’ll do on the day.

His personal base - the Trump cultists, as opposed to diehard GOPers - will be the last to crumble> But I would bet the situation with your aunt is being played out all across the States, right now.

 

[JTG]

bloody fuck!
That's a simply enormous drop.
even for a Southern state, albeit Upper South (for those who don't know, Missouri is quite different, culturally and socially, to the likes of Alabama and Mississippi

Yeah, is it the South or the MidWest? Know what you mean though, southern Illinois is pretty much the same culturally, just that it gets overwhelmed by the Chicago vote.
Used to be a swingy kinda place but although Obama got within a few thousand votes in '08 it's been reliably red since Clinton stepped down (the last Dem to make any real inroads into the South). Trump doubled Romney's margin there last time around and the only places to vote Blue there are St Louis, Columbia and Kansas City

 

[JTG]

His personal base - the Trump cultists, as opposed to diehard GOPers - will be the last to crumble> But I would bet the situation with your aunt is being played out all across the States, right now.

Yeah and while some will be unsuccessful, others won't be and still others just won't go out to vote in the end. That's where the enthusiasm deficit works in Biden's favour really. Also why the early vote matters - those votes are banked already and Trumpies who haven't voted yet... well, it doesn't count until they do. And some may not.

 

[bimble]

This is what he’s got left. It does look like the last days of a fascist cult, barricaded in just before the compound gets stormed.

 

[moochedit]

This is what he’s got left. It does look like the last days of a fascist cult, barricaded in just before the compound gets stormed

And we know how that ended!

 

[bimble]

This is an interesting way of trying to win re-election.

 

[JTG]

This is what he’s got left. It does look like the last days of a fascist cult, barricaded in just before the compound gets stormed.

Big fan of him having to campaign in Georgia, a state he won by 5 points in 2016, rather than anywhere more swingy.

Incidentally, Trump's winning margin was down from Romney's in'12 and McCain's in '08. Demographics gonna get them some time

 

[JTG]

This is an interesting way of trying to win re-election.
View attachment 234777

Well he was endorsed by the Taliban the other week (not even joking) so it's kind of consistent

 

[bimble]

I’m feeling like he’s going to lose and lose properly, so that it doesn’t turn into a Supreme Court drama he just packs up and goes back to one of his golden houses. I mean today’s the first time I really think that’s the most likely outcome. I am usually wrong about everything though.

 

[frogwoman]

I just have a horrible feeling he's still might win

 

[bimble]

I just have a horrible feeling he's still might win

Yeah I might just be having a stray optimism day.

 

[JimW]

He's going to have a covid relapse as the last landslide defeat numbers roll in.

 

[Ax^]

aye the electoral collage way of voting is still a problem

almost like the way the tory government carved up the voting system in the united kingdom

 

[killer b]

I don't think anyone is writing off the possibility of a Trump win tbf.

Actually, I am. Big Joe is going to crush the motherfucker. Roll on 4th November.

 

[two sheds]

I don't think anyone is writing off the possibility of a Trump win tbf.

Actually, I am. Big Joe is going to crush the motherfucker. Roll on 4th November.

As long as the Democrats aren't

 

[JTG]

He's gonna lose by miles. He's getting stomped. It's already happening

 

[frogwoman]

I don't know, there seem to be loads of people on my fb who aren't voting.

 

[bimble]

I don't know, there seem to be loads of people on my fb who aren't voting.

Why aren’t they what do they say? Did they also not vote last time?

 

[killer b]

The people on your facebook are about as relevant as the people in the comments section of your local paper tbf

 

[killer b]

Shit, if the people on my facebook were any indication of the political mood of the world, we'd live in a solid red socialist paradise already.