Yeah there was that. Also, the economy. Which is not on Trump's side just as it wasn't on Carter or HW Bush's sides
Edit: also illustrates how incumbents can be more vulnerable to current events than a challenger
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US election 2020 thread
- Thread starter petee
- Start date
Edit: also illustrates how incumbents can be more vulnerable to current events than a challenger
a_chap
When the world came apart, where were you?
A trump triumph that has failed to deliver???
I can hardly believe it.
www.theverge.com
I can hardly believe it.
Inside Foxconn’s empty buildings, empty factories, and empty promises in Wisconsin
The two-year charade that upended people’s lives
www.theverge.com
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Yes it is perfectly possibly to make changes to the electoral system to hinder the electoral success of the Republicans (or any other populist party), after all that is exactly what the French system is designed to do. And it has done it pretty successfully the FN/RN underrepresented in comparison to their support.
But FN/RN support has progressively grown, coming up with methods to hinder their electoral success has not appreciably hindered their political success and now they are beginning to win electorally so should the French state modify its electoral system to stop this? That is the answer proposed by many liberal anti-populists, but surely the answer for radical anti-fascists has to be political solutions (like some mentioned by Streathamite) rather than electoral ones. And I think it is all too likely that the Democrats reach for the electoral solutions rather than political ones.
I'm unsure what will happen to the Republican Party post-election. The completeness of the devouring of the establishment party by populism is remarkable, the opposition to Trump/populism is so weak that I find it hard to see how the party will "un-populist" even under a really heavy loss. I can see Trump being replaced by someone like Pence, but the party has become so solid behind Trump populism that I don't see that being unwound overnight.
And at the end of everything while Trump and the Republicans look likely to lose badly they are still probably going to get >40% of the vote, that's a lot of people. I don't believe there is anywhere in the "West" that populism has a majority but it has some pretty hefty minorities and simply excluding it electoral is not going to stop it politically.
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Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
They'd be bloody good fifth columnists if they conned a lift out of me!fifth columnists
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Fuck me, did Wisconsin - and Trump - ever get played there!A trump triumph that has failed to deliver???
I can hardly believe it.
Inside Foxconn’s empty buildings, empty factories, and empty promises in Wisconsin
The two-year charade that upended people’s lives
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Bloody stupid place to try it then Even the house district isn't close let alone the Presidential race there
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
I think the key difference between France and the USA is that the electoral system in the USA magnifies the actual electoral popularity of the GOP by favouring rural states over Urban ones, and also that the decentralised nature of elections management means that states with a historic legacy of GOP success and contriol can - and almost always do - get up to a quite simply mindblowing array of tricks in order to suppress the vote, and stop people voting - especially BME, young and poor voters. They operate on the simple, but proven basis, that fewer voters = more likely Republican win whilst higher turnout = more likely Democrat win.
To the best of my (admittedly limited) knowledge, nothing even remotely like that goes on in French elections. The FN don't gerrymander left right and centre, or carve a swathe through electoral rolls, or reduce the number of polling stations to farcical levels, simply because they don't have the authority to do so. The Republicans can, and do, do all that, and more.
I agree with you entirely that political strategies - mass mobilisations, grassroots organisation, community activism, industrial action etc - is more important than the limited value of the ballot box, and rejigging the electoral rulebook. However, in the USA it has to be part of the mix too - simply because of all the tricks the GOP get up to.
Yeah, in the link about drive thru voting I posted there are details of how GOP lawyers tried to shut it down (and are still trying via the Texas Supreme Court). No reason other than just to make things harder.
Harris really are pulling out all the stops to drive up turnout - free rides to the polls on the Houston Metro, polling locations open for the last 24 hours of early voting etc
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
If they repeat Beto's performance from two years ago they'll do OK. May even flip the Texas house
Texas has reached 45% of its 2016 turnout now with two weeks until election day. 4m votes cast already.
Overall, the total has reached 30m nationally, nearly 22% of the '16 total. VT just in front on 46% of '16 total
136m turned out last time, we may be on track for 150m+ this time
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
There was a poll the other day that showed Al Gross one up in Alaska. And Biden only three down in the state. One poll, be wary etc but if they're struggling in Alaska then it's over
spring-peeper
Well-Known Member
Harris has now clocked up 700,000 early votes - 2016 turn out was 1.3m. Total registered electorate is 2.4m.
Supreme Court throws out GOP objection to accepting mail in ballots in PA received within three days of the election:
edition.cnn.com
4-4 split on the court
Why it matters:
73% of the mail ballots received in PA so far are from registered Democrats
Supreme Court rejects GOP attempt to require mail-in ballots be received by Election Day in Pennsylvania
Mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania -- a critical state for President Donald Trump's reelection chances -- will be counted if they are received within three days of Election Day even if they do not have a legible postmark, the Supreme Court ruled Monday.
4-4 split on the court
Why it matters:
73% of the mail ballots received in PA so far are from registered Democrats
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Raheem
Well-Known Member
Supreme Court throws out GOP objection to accepting mail in ballots in PA received within three days of the election:
Supreme Court rejects GOP attempt to require mail-in ballots be received by Election Day in Pennsylvania
Mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania -- a critical state for President Donald Trump's reelection chances -- will be counted if they are received within three days of Election Day even if they do not have a legible postmark, the Supreme Court ruled Monday.
4-4 split on the court
Why it matters:
73% of the mail ballots received in PA so far are from registered Democrats
4-4 split is worrying, though. Trump might win some other state just by having the majority of votes disregarded.
spring-peeper
Well-Known Member
Oh, no!!! Not the scientists!!!
Headline -> "Trump Mocks Joe Biden: If Elected, 'He'll Listen To The Scientists'" ->
www.huffingtonpost.ca
Headline -> "Trump Mocks Joe Biden: If Elected, 'He'll Listen To The Scientists'" ->
HuffPost is now a part of Verizon Media
www.huffingtonpost.ca
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
You're mixing two things here - voter suppression effects (which I would argue is a political matter) with the electoral federalism that gives the Republicans a certain advantage. The former was not mentioned in the post I quoted.
I'm not having a go at Yossarian here, rather just using his answer to illustrate that the "answer" to populism all too often and all too quickly becomes electoral. And I strongly suspect that the Democrats will reach for those electoral answers rather than the political ones.
krtek a houby
Anger is Hi-NRG
Oh, no!!! Not the scientists!!!
Headline -> "Trump Mocks Joe Biden: If Elected, 'He'll Listen To The Scientists'" ->HuffPost is now a part of Verizon Media
More death threats to Fauci, after his boss' layers outbursts.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
How would you differentiate between 'electoral' and 'political', in this context?
This may be true but honestly can't see a debate changing much at this stage anyway
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a_chap
When the world came apart, where were you?
In debate countdown, Trump holds rally, Biden does prep
ERIE, Pa. (AP) — President Donald Trump pushed into arguably the most important state on the electoral map on Tuesday, opting for a rally in Pennsylvania instead of formal debate practice two days ahead of the final presidential debate that may be his last, best chance to alter the trajectory of the
apnews.com
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
sure, but actually, Biden's televised and public appearances have been remarkably calm, composed, polished and gaffe-free.
Yeah, I've been surprised at how well he's performed tbh
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
I mean, Trump needs it more than Biden at this stage anyway - on which point I will backtrack on my 'bottling it' comment because Trump HAS to be involved. All the numbers are against him, there's only so much that suppression and legal challenges can do in the face of what appears to be a tidal wave headed for him and he needs SOMETHING to change. So you chuck as many variables into the mix as possible - a debate, more smears, whatever - and hope it shifts the so far unshiftable.
But by the time the debate comes, even more votes will have been cast in a voting environment in which Joe Biden leads by 10-11 points in the polls. More early voting opens in more states this week. We'll have 40-50m votes in by the end of the week. It's getting late Donald.
I'll chuck in now that I've seen hints at district level polling that is truly awful for DT - like districts that went for him by 10 in '16 now going for Biden by the same amount. Largely suburban. These polls don't get much attention understandably but again it's consistent with what appears to be the overall picture
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