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US election 2020 thread

JTG said:
I mean, Trump needs it more than Biden at this stage anyway - on which point I will backtrack on my 'bottling it' comment because Trump HAS to be involved. All the numbers are against him, there's only so much that suppression and legal challenges can do in the face of what appears to be a tidal wave headed for him and he needs SOMETHING to change. So you chuck as many variables into the mix as possible - a debate, more smears, whatever - and hope it shifts the so far unshiftable.

But by the time the debate comes, even more votes will have been cast in a voting environment in which Joe Biden leads by 10-11 points in the polls. More early voting opens in more states this week. We'll have 40-50m votes in by the end of the week. It's getting late Donald.

I'll chuck in now that I've seen hints at district level polling that is truly awful for DT - like districts that went for him by 10 in '16 now going for Biden by the same amount. Largely suburban. These polls don't get much attention understandably but again it's consistent with what appears to be the overall picture
Click to expand...
agreed entirely with Paras 1 & 2. If those district level polls that you cite in para 3 hold good - that's it. It's over.
 
All with the health warning of not looking at single polls, look for trends, averages, look for analysis beneath the topline numbers...

And of course that the 538 chance of Trump winning is 12%, which is basically the same chance as throwing a six. Unlikely but it happens
 
Streathamite said:
Fucking hell! :eek::D
Sarasota, from my admittedly-sketchy recall , is mostly white, none-too-wealthy types. That's an absolutely killer lead there - as the link points out, Trump won there 4 years ago.
e2a: ta for the link!
Click to expand...

My recall is even sketchier most likely, not having been there for 25 years, but yeah, a lot whiter than Orlando. Hardly down at heel, though, when I was there. Uni was a little technically outdated..
 
JTG said:
All with the health warning of not looking at single polls, look for trends, averages, look for analysis beneath the topline numbers...

And of course that the 538 chance of Trump winning is 12%, which is basically the same chance as throwing a six. Unlikely but it happens
Click to expand...
I was reading earlier today that that 12% chance 538 gives him is based on the fact that things could change in the next two weeks. So if the polls stay about the same, and there aren't any big events (e.g. a debate disaster for Biden, or some big controversy that harms him) then the chance of a Trump victory shrinks daily, to about 5% by polling day.
 
strung out said:
I was reading earlier today that that 12% chance 538 gives him is based on the fact that things could change in the next two weeks. So if the polls stay about the same, and there aren't any big events (e.g. a debate disaster for Biden, or some big controversy that harms him) then the chance of a Trump victory shrinks daily, to about 5% by polling day.
Click to expand...
Spot on. The assumption that the polls will tighten is built into their model. Each day that goes past with less time for polls to tighten sees his chances on their model shrink
 
I am enjoying , in particular , the input from those presumably over in the USA , able to make objective comments. Thank you. You know who you are. Much appreciated.

(I got Trump's nieces's book from the library this week and have read it. I need to return it quick so others can enjoy it. Not great book , but quite interesting. If you believe it , and it sounds plausible),
 
I wonder if there's much point in GOP trying to play this whole 'Biden is CORRUPT' angle. I mean, you're either so Republican that you utterly blind yourself to Trump's rampant dishonesty, or if you have any sensitivity to corruption nothing someone can say to you about Biden can possibly make him look worse than Trump. Unless the idea is just to turn off Dem voters so they don't vote for anyone I suppose.
 
Cloo said:
I wonder if there's much point in GOP trying to play this whole 'Biden is CORRUPT' angle. I mean, you're either so Republican that you utterly blind yourself to Trump's rampant dishonesty, or if you have any sensitivity to corruption nothing someone can say to you about Biden can possibly make him look worse than Trump. Unless the idea is just to turn off Dem voters so they don't vote for anyone I suppose.
Click to expand...
They're fighting the last war all over again because, well, it worked last time and they don't have any other ideas.
It's a different battlefield now, with far fewer floating voters to grab. Polls this time four years ago showed a good 12-13% who weren't sure how they'd vote and they broke 2-1 at least to Trump come election day. Now, almost everybody knows how they're voting and unless Joe Biden's head starts revolving through 360 degrees as he visibly floats two foot off the floor during the next debate, it aint gonna change
 
www.nbcnews.com

How Trump plowed through his $1 billion war chest

Trump’s sprawling political operation has raised well over $1 billion since he took the White House in 2017 — and set a lot of it on fire.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

Other questionable expenditures by Trump and the RNC that are included in campaign finance disclosures:

— Nearly $100,000 spent on copies of Donald Trump Jr.’s book “Triggered,” which helped propel it to the top of the New York Times bestsellers list.

— Over $7.4 million spent at Trump-branded properties since 2017.

— At least $35.2 million spent on Trump merchandise.

— $38.7 million in legal and “compliance” fees. In addition to tapping the RNC and his campaign to pay legal costs during his impeachment proceedings, Trump has also relied on his political operation to cover legal costs for some aides.

— At least $14.1 million spent on the Republican National Convention. The event was supposed to have been held in Charlotte, North Carolina, but Trump relocated it to Jacksonville, Florida, after a dispute with North Carolina’s Democratic governor over coronavirus safety measures. The Florida event was ultimately cancelled, as well, with a mostly online convention taking its place.

— $912,000 spent on ads that ran on the personal Facebook pages of Parscale and Trump spokesperson Katrina Pierson.

— A $250,000 ad run during Game 7 of the 2019 World Series, which came after Trump was booed by spectators when he attended Game 5.

— At least $218,000 for Trump surrogates to travel aboard private jets provided by campaign donors.

— $1.6 million on TV ads in the Washington, D.C., media market, an overwhelmingly Democratic area where Trump has little chance of winning but where he is a regular TV watcher.
Click to expand...
 
Streathamite said:
Fucking hell! :eek::D
Sarasota, from my admittedly-sketchy recall , is mostly white, none-too-wealthy types. That's an absolutely killer lead there - as the link points out, Trump won there 4 years ago.
e2a: ta for the link!
Click to expand...
Just going back to this - as we've mentioned before, some district level polling was raising huge red flags for HRC last time around that wasn't getting picked up at the state/national level. Districts that may have been Obama wins or at least level pegging with Romney in '12 showing big leads for DT. This time around I'm seeing commentators mentioning (and occasionally linking to) this type of data showing Biden overperforming his state level polls in certain districts.
There's noise around the Trump campaign about GOP officials despairing of certain states and evidence (ad spend, campaign stops etc) of the Trump campaign narrowing their focus to the slimmest possible route to the White House - ie forget WI & MI, defend everything else from the '16 map. Now, I wouldn't necessarily trust campaign strategists to always know what's going on out there - look at Labour being as surprised as anyone at the 2017 results - but I'd definitely trust polling data that was pretty much spot on in the 18' mid-terms for eg

Example:
 
Scary stuff going on down in Florida.

www.floridatoday.com

Threatening emails telling voters to vote for Trump target Brevard County residents

The sender of the email claims to have \
www.floridatoday.com www.floridatoday.com

Voters across Brevard County Tuesday afternoon received threatening emails purporting to come from the Proud Boys, a far-right group that espouses militant authoritarian ideology, telling them to vote for President Trump, or else.

The emails appear to follow a similar format, and come from the email address "info@officialproudboys.com."

"Hi (name) We are in possession of all your information You are currently registered as a Democrat and we know this because we have gained access into the entire voting infrastructure. You will vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you. Change your party affiliation to Republican to let us know you received our message and will comply. We will know which candidate you voted for. I would take this seriously if I were you. (Voter's address)," it read.
Click to expand...
 
Tribute to JC

One way or another, I'm gonna find ya
I'm gonna get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya
One way or another, I'm gonna win ya
I'm gonna get ya, get ya ,get ya, get ya
One way or another, I'm gonna see ya
Click to expand...



www.cnn.com

New York Times: Tax records show Trump maintains Chinese bank account

President Donald Trump's tax records show he has pursued expansive business projects in China for years and even maintains a Chinese bank account, The New York Times reported Tuesday, disclosures that deal a blow to the President's efforts to paint Democratic nominee Joe Biden as the...
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

President Donald Trump's tax records show he has pursued expansive business projects in China for years and even maintains a Chinese bank account, The New York Times reported Tuesday, disclosures that deal a blow to the President's efforts to paint Democratic nominee Joe Biden as the presidential candidate who is soft on China.

An analysis of Trump's tax records by the Times shows that the President holds a previously unreported bank account in China that was not included on his public financial disclosures because it is held under a corporate name. Trump also maintains bank accounts in Britain and Ireland.

The Chinese account, the newspaper said, is controlled by Trump International Hotels Management and it paid $188,561 in taxes in the country from 2013 to 2015.

While the tax records don't show how much money has moved through Trump's foreign accounts, the Internal Revenue Service mandates that filers disclose the portions of their incomes coming from foreign countries. Trump International Hotels Management reported only a few thousand dollars from China.
Click to expand...
 
moochedit said:
Do we know many had voted in Texas at the same point last time round?
Click to expand...
None because early voting didn't open until Oct 24th last time. Access to early voting has been massively extended
Total early votes in 2016 were 4.5m according to details on Early Voting - 2016
Those tables only list a handful of counties mind... possibly EV wasn't available in the smaller counties, not sure

So, looks like the total early vote has passed 2016's total already, with early voting open for another nine days. The total has also passed DT's winning tally last time. So it does look very much like we could see increased turnout in Texas (60% last time). Big Presidential election of course but after Beto's close miss with the Senate seat in 2018, people will be aware that they could flip the Texas legislature which would have a huge impact on house seat redistricting coming up after the census. No more GOP gerrymanders.

2m more people on the Texas voting rolls than four years ago as well. Texas has regular influxes of people from elsewhere, usually moving for jobs to Houston or Dallas/Fort Worth often from more Democratic leaning states

Edit: moochedit, I've found data on historic early voting in Texas over the last few cycles. The data I linked to was incomplete (as I suspected, only the biggest counties listed) but it still looks like they're on track for an historic turnout

Ek28AN9XgAA0KYz.jpg
 
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As an addendum to the above: 800,000 votes have been cast in Harris, 60% of the '16 total and a third of the electorate. So Houston is turning out at a greater rate than the state overall (which isn't surprising given Dems nationwide appear to be voting earlier than GOP supporters)
 
JTG said:
Just going back to this - as we've mentioned before, some district level polling was raising huge red flags for HRC last time around that wasn't getting picked up at the state/national level. Districts that may have been Obama wins or at least level pegging with Romney in '12 showing big leads for DT. This time around I'm seeing commentators mentioning (and occasionally linking to) this type of data showing Biden overperforming his state level polls in certain districts.
There's noise around the Trump campaign about GOP officials despairing of certain states and evidence (ad spend, campaign stops etc) of the Trump campaign narrowing their focus to the slimmest possible route to the White House - ie forget WI & MI, defend everything else from the '16 map. Now, I wouldn't necessarily trust campaign strategists to always know what's going on out there - look at Labour being as surprised as anyone at the 2017 results - but I'd definitely trust polling data that was pretty much spot on in the 18' mid-terms for eg

Example:
Click to expand...

Excellent link - ta!:thumbs:
 
Republicans doing better at voter registration than democrats. They also have a candidate that will drive the enthusiasm of their supporters into turning up. There’s some danger here.

apnews.com

Republicans see bright spot in 2020 voter registration push

The Republican Party has cut into Democrats' advantage in voter registration tallies across some critical presidential battleground states, a fact they point to as evidence of steady — and overlooked — enthusiasm for President Donald Trump and his party.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
Streathamite said:
Excellent link - ta!:thumbs:
Click to expand...
Further tidbits:
Cook Political Report just moved KS-03 from 'likely D' to 'safe D'. Sharice Davids won that one in 2018 in what was something of a surprise - KS-03 is the western suburbs of Kansas City and went for Trump by a point in '16. Now she's reckoned to be cruising home in her bid for re-election. If the Dems are walking it in suburban Kansas then it's gonna be similar carnage in the suburbs of NC, TX and wherever else.
Apparently GOP ad spending was pulled from Harris County a while ago so GOP house candidates in the Houston metro have been abandoned in favour of shoring up support in what are usually much redder areas.

Be prepared to be surprised on election night I reckon. Somewhere unusual is gonna go blue
 
Dogsauce said:
Republicans doing better at voter registration than democrats. They also have a candidate that will drive the enthusiasm of their supporters into turning up. There’s some danger here.

apnews.com

Republicans see bright spot in 2020 voter registration push

The Republican Party has cut into Democrats' advantage in voter registration tallies across some critical presidential battleground states, a fact they point to as evidence of steady — and overlooked — enthusiasm for President Donald Trump and his party.
apnews.com apnews.com
Click to expand...
They also have a candidate that will drive the enthusiasm of their opponents turning up as well
 
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