Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[two sheds]

I never did

 

[The39thStep]

I never did

Not you .

 

[2hats]

That’s neither here nor there. Both sides have enough to blow the planet apart 10 times over.

Nope.

 

[Spymaster]

 

[Weller]

I can't see the US responding with more nukes. Russia has more nukes than the US via quite some way

I know very little about war games or tactics but yeah thats one of the reasons Im a wary and worried with the Russia stuff doesn't work but ours does or is much better tech because they didnt look after 1000s of ancient seemingly useless tanks that Ukraine have been targeting with missiles
His speech was worrying and and as its now written in Russion law that any leader must protect by any means Russia land whats he to do if he loses any anexed land , I dont buy in to the we shouldnt worry about his tactical nukes idea ot that hes bluffing or worried about as he said "we have to show the west we mean business by any means" etc

 

[Weller]

I wish people would stop going on about nukes there is huge number steps that can be taken to escalate things before it gets to that stage.

He hasn't even declared war and ordered a full mobilisation yet.

He wasnt that far off in his speech if you watch it in full and about what is now Russia law for any leader if any existential threat on any Russian land

 

[strung out]

I know very little about war games or tactics but yeah thats one of the reasons Im a wary and worried with the Russia stuff doesn't work but ours does or is much better tech because they didnt look after 1000s of ancient seemingly useless tanks that Ukraine have been targeting with missiles
His speech was worrying and and as its now written in Russion law that any leader must protect by any means Russia land whats he to do if he loses any anexed land , I dont buy in to the we shouldnt worry about his tactical nukes idea ot that hes bluffing or worried about as he said "we have to show the west we mean business by any means" etc

He lost a city's worth of newly annexed 'Russian' territory yesterday and there's no sign of any nukes yet.

 

[Weller]

This, plus nukes are very hard to explode, they need to be in 100% tip-top condition and the chances of that when it is crystal clear that every single bit of the Russian military has been neglected and abused by tea-leaves for decades, it would be a miracle if the nukes were kept in working order. A risky as shit gamble, obviously.

And how many times has Putin done his "I'm not bluffing this time" bollocks? ~35 according to a number of reports.

I'm gonna hit you.
I am.
Really, I'm gonna do it.
Not bluffing.
I'm fucking nails and it will hurt when I do it.
This time, I really am going to hit you!
etc.

and "Im not bluffing its only an exercise nobody is building troops up to invade anywhere "

Some said invading would be political suicide that would see him off before he died from his obvious final days from a terminal illness before this started
I am not even sure he wouldn't get the backing by the Russian public now to do something silly after watching the pop concert and celebrations after the annexing this week but does he need that support or care about it anyway

 

[The39thStep]

Ah the Putins health issue gambit

 

[A380]

I know very little about war games or tactics but yeah thats one of the reasons Im a wary and worried with the Russia stuff doesn't work but ours does or is much better tech because they didnt look after 1000s of ancient seemingly useless tanks that Ukraine have been targeting with missiles
His speech was worrying and and as its now written in Russion law that any leader must protect by any means Russia land whats he to do if he loses any anexed land , I dont buy in to the we shouldnt worry about his tactical nukes idea ot that hes bluffing or worried about as he said "we have to show the west we mean business by any means" etc

Putin has shown the West ‘he means business’ when he launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine that tried to take the Capital city and bring about regime change.

He thought, quite rationally, that the West would back down- as in Crimea , Belarus etc and the Ukrainian leadership would fold. I don’t think he is stupid and so he isn’t in any doubt of the West’s response but, he has probably succumbed to the syndrome where leaders in power for too long grow to equate themselves and their position and prestige with that of their state. The question is, how long does he double down trapped in a ‘sunk money’ problem?

 

[planetgeli]

Nope.

7.6? 2.3? That'd be ok wouldn't it? 2.3.

Or does it depend on the definition of 'apart' or something?

 

[2hats]

Awaiting your working out.

7.6? 2.3? That'd be ok wouldn't it? 2.3.

Or does it depend on the definition of 'apart' or something?

Not even 1x.

 

[planetgeli]

Awaiting your working out.

Not even 1x.

Each?

 

[Weller]

He lost a city's worth of newly annexed 'Russian' territory yesterday and there's no sign of any nukes yet.

Well I know that hope its a bluff and you are right but Im concerned about a slightly longer time frame for my , all kids futures etc

surely though its what happens if he loses all gains or even if Crimea gets attacked more , or worse Russia itself and he has no way out backed into a corner with nothing gained , possibly losses of previous land gained in past wars and special operations
hes said and done a lot of things that seems to have made a failure to him and those around him not now a possibilit ywithout "using every means we have at our disposal to protect all Russian landand show the West we mean business"

Anyway Im not good on war stuff or politics though so Ill go back o lurking on this thread and photo shopping cats etc

 

[planetgeli]

Earth'll be fine. Quite a few humans might be fucked like.

 

[A380]

I’m just waiting for the Chinese Communist Party National Assembly to announce the annexation Vladivostok along with most of the Asian part of Russia…

 

[A380]

Earth'll be fine. Quite a few humans might be fucked like.

Yep, the cockroaches are rubbing whatever they have instead of hands in anticipation…

 

[maomao]

There are several different kinds of nuke involved. The big danger seems to be them using a smallish one (or several) to win a battlefield victory and put the willies up everyone. This would not cross the line for an all out nuclear response by the Western powers but the danger is that an overwhelming conventional response would trigger an all out response (some of which are supposedly hard-wired into the system to ensure revenge in the case of all out nuclear assault). It would be interesting to know what the yanks have planned. Naval targets? Taking down sattelites? EPMs? Disconnecting the internet? Military targets too deep inside Russia would seem unwise.

 

[maomao]

Yep, the cockroaches are rubbing whatever they have instead of hands in anticipation…

Pincers.

 

[2hats]

Each?

Combined. Even at the Cold War peak they could not have caused total & complete global destruction (*), and yields and warhead counts were much, much higher then. Right now both sides have sufficient to inflict significant structural/societal damage to each other and variously lesser degrees of damage in some target-adjacent territories in the same hemisphere. Life would continue in either scenario though, just [statistically likely] not yours nor mine (though again, as mentioned before, in the modern day scenario that depends on targeting, fuzing profile, yield selection, weather, ...).

* Here's a clue.

 

[maomao]

Combined. Even at the Cold War peak they could not have caused total & complete global destruction (*), and yields and warhead counts were much, much higher then. Right now both sides have sufficient to inflict significant structural/societal damage to each other and variously lesser degrees of damage in some target-adjacent territories in the same hemisphere. Life would continue in either scenario though, just [statistically likely] not yours nor mine (though again, as mentioned before, in the modern day scenario that depends on targeting, fuzing profile, yield selection, weather, ...).

* Here's a clue.

I bet you could crack the earth into bits if you combined them into a single weapon or set them all off simultaneously in the same place.

 

[planetgeli]

Combined. Even at the Cold War peak they could not have caused total & complete global destruction (*), and yields and warhead counts were much, much higher then. Right now both sides have sufficient to inflict significant structural/societal damage to each other and variously lesser degrees of damage in some target-adjacent territories in the same hemisphere. Life would continue in either scenario though, just [statistically likely] not yours nor mine (though again, as mentioned before, in the modern day scenario that depends on targeting, fuzing profile, yield selection, weather, ...).

* Here's a clue.

Where's the safe bet? Safest bet? I've always reckoned S.America can't have many nukes targeted their way.

 

[2hats]

The big danger seems to be them using a smallish one (or several) to win a battlefield victory and put the willies up everyone.

Use of lower yield "tactical" warheads in-theatre would seem like the most likely step in that direction, as part of their long standing doctrine of escalate to de-escalate.

It would be interesting to know what the yanks have planned. Naval targets? Taking down sattelites? EPMs? Disconnecting the internet? Military targets too deep inside Russia would seem unwise.

Various sources have hinted that it has been communicated to the Kremlin that the response would be massive conventional, perhaps aimed at total destruction of all Russian military facilities along their western border adjacent to Ukraine and the entire Black Sea fleet.

 

[2hats]

I bet you could crack the earth into bits if you combined them into a single weapon or set them all off simultaneously in the same place.

I bet you've not bothered digesting the clue provided.

 

[Rob Ray]

The question is, how long does he double down trapped in a ‘sunk money’ problem?

As a move to cut losses I'd have thought the annexation of the land already taken was it. Putin has defined a win condition, no longer needs to try and push any further into Ukraine and can concentrate on creating as impregnable a front line as possible over the mud season/winter, which is considerably easier than trying to move forward. Whether he's right that time will be on his side, the West will eventually get bored/tired, the call-up of reserves will offset Ukraine's higher morale and the front line will eventually become the new status quo is much more difficult to say, but it's not entirely a reckless gamble.

 

[Cid]

I bet you could crack the earth into bits if you combined them into a single weapon or set them all off simultaneously in the same place.

The popular mechanics article linked describes exactly that... 15 krakatoas... the earth has weathered far worse.

 

[maomao]

I bet you've not bothered digesting the clue provided.

That's a ground burst. A few miles underground might do it.

 

[Tanya1982]

V

I don’t have a clue what the Russian command is thinking. But I do know that I were in their shoes, I’d be avoiding nuclear weapons like the plague.

Russia has never been so weak militarily. Their combat ability has been massively degraded. They’re also already stretched across front lines. And the perception of them as a dangerous force has evaporated. I can’t believe there aren’t dead-eyed nutcases across China, the US and Europe that are salivating about the possibility of taking their opportunity to strike and carve it up. All they need is an excuse. Russia wants to be very careful not to trigger this.

I view the nuclear threats like my dog growling. He’s soft as shite but sound ferocious. And that’s because the growl is literally all he has to defend himself.

Russia is never as strong as you fear or as weak as you hope. Isn't that the expression? Seems as relevant as ever.

 

[Cid]

That's a ground burst. A few miles underground might do it.

Yellowstone's last eruption was apparently 875,000 megatons(ish - guess all these disaster estimates must be taken with a pinch of salt). We, in all our hubris, are a long, long way from that.

 

[Dystopiary]

I think we need a nuclear scenarios thread tbh.

Am thinking of starting one. Do you think it should be in this forum or another?