Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

[Rob Ray]

then europe and the west will get beat. they cant manufacture enough ammo to keep ukraine supplied, once stocks are depleted, where is europe/the west going to get shells from?

The current state of play has been that new production is behind schedule, but it's a mistake to think that this is the same thing as "can't". They absolutely can, and in fact the money to do so has already been allocated. It's a question of whether/when they will, which is harder to answer.

As with people who wrongly thought Russia would run out of useable weaponry due to historic corruption and failed to clock that the Russian Army would eventually adapt to the new demands on it, the situation is not static.

 

[The39thStep]

The current state of play has been that new production is behind schedule, but it's a mistake to think that this is the same thing as "can't". They absolutely can, and in fact the money to do so has already been allocated. It's a question of whether/when they will, which is harder to answer.

As with people who wrongly thought Russia would run out of useable weaponry due to historic corruption and failed to clock that the Russian Army would eventually adapt to the new demands on it, the situation is not static.

Why is new production in Europe behind schedule? From your political point of view, what demands or activities should anarchists be promoting to maximise the production capacity of
ammunition?

 

[Rob Ray]

Why is new production in Europe behind schedule?

I'm no expert, but as I understand it a combination of difficulties rebuilding a rather ossified industrial base alongside shortages of some key ingredients (primarily gunpowder).

From your political point of view, what demands or activities should anarchists promoting to maximise the production capacity of
ammunition?

Politically I think campaigning for something the EU is already doing would be a bit of a waste of time, and our best position involves supporting libertarian organisations (eg) within Ukraine and Russia, as was identified from the start.

 

[The39thStep]

I'm no expert, but as I understand it a combination of difficulties rebuilding a rather ossified industrial base alongside shortages of some key ingredients (primarily gunpowder).


Politically I think campaigning for something the EU is already doing would be a bit of a waste of time, and our best position involves supporting libertarian organisations (eg) within Ukraine and Russia, as was identified from the start.

I asked because there are examples of the left where they have identified a conflict as a 'peoples war' ,for example , of working in trade unions to maximise war production , raising inefficiency issues and attacking profiteers .

 

[Rob Ray]

I asked because there are examples of the left where they have identified a conflict as a 'peoples war' ,for example , of working in trade unions to maximise war production , raising inefficiency issues and attacking profiteers .

I tend to think the question only becomes relevant if we have the numbers to seriously affect the direction of European arms policy. And if we had such power the implication would be the existence of a movement big enough to ask far more ambitious questions. Regardless, this isn't a "people's war" and I have never described it as such.

Edit: If you want my broader take, it's really not changed all that much from what I was saying on this thread in June 2022, and I posted my historical perspective here.

 

[Chz]

I wouldn't think there's much that anarchists can do. Unions are fairly gung-ho about it, and they don't really affect this government's policies either.

Unions back increased defence spending

Unions have backed increased defence spending in a ‘victory for common sense’, says GMB.

www.gmb.org.uk

 

[StoneRoad]

then europe and the west will get beat. they cant manufacture enough ammo to keep ukraine supplied, once stocks are depleted, where is europe/the west going to get shells from?

Europe & the USA are currently ramping up their munitions suppliers, building / reactivating sites. Note that some of the new production facilities are actually in Ukraine - which will reduce transport delays, assuming the factories are not destroyed by enemy action.

I presume that Ukraine are "policing their brass" so it can be recycled into more shells ...
There was quite an industry in WW1 to reprocess brass.

The same goes for loitering munitions and FPV drones ...

 

[TopCat]

Reading this shit hardens my attitudes but perhaps not in the way the writer would like. ‘Not losing’ is not enough: it’s time for Europe to finally get serious about a Ukrainian victory | Timothy Garton Ash

 

[tim]

Just tell? You and which army?

Yes as Stalin once said, "How many divisions does Pope Urban LXXV have?"

 

[The39thStep]

Reading this shit hardens my attitudes but perhaps not in the way the writer would like. ‘Not losing’ is not enough: it’s time for Europe to finally get serious about a Ukrainian victory | Timothy Garton Ash

The trouble with 'if only the world would do as I say' articles is that this time last year he was putting all his eggs into the Ukrainian counter offensive basket.

 

[The39thStep]

Europe & the USA are currently ramping up their munitions suppliers, building / reactivating sites. Note that some of the new production facilities are actually in Ukraine - which will reduce transport delays, assuming the factories are not destroyed by enemy action.

I presume that Ukraine are "policing their brass" so it can be recycled into more shells ...
There was quite an industry in WW1 to reprocess brass.

The same goes for loitering munitions and FPV drones ...

The phrase ramping up , whilst I am sure well intended, tends to mask a number of issues with EU capacity. Firstly the 1m ammunition target will not be reached in the expected time limits and its been clear that it will not be reached since at least November despite an additional 2 billion Euros from the aptly named European Peace Facility fund. This partially explains the Danish and Czech initiative about identifying ammunition from outside the EU which could be bought. This in itself has caused some disagreement within the EU about the principle of purchasing from outside the EU itself ( a number of states purchase from the US for example). In addition, there are other non EU states that are also seeking ammunition and the demand for ammunition is causing prices to rise, the cost of one 155mm shell rose from 2,000 euros at the start of Russia’s invasion to 8,000 euros by the end of last year.

Secondly, the EU isn't presiding over an EU wide command economy, it can't in reality click a switch or push a button that says it will produce more because the EU doesn't itself produce anything. What we have is a number of private sector producers in a number of different states within Europe where orders have to be negotiated and then delivered. These private companies also make and sell arms to other states, German and Italian companies for example sell to the Israeli's. Hence last year the EU brought out proposals on how they might 'incentivise' investment by these private companies and came up with a very generous proposal that it would subsidise investment costs by a basic rate of 40% and an additional 20% for meeting various conditions. The financial numbers we are talking about are huge, in the billions and of course, the private sector wants reassurance that any investment that they make, which is only 40% of the total cost, will be guaranteed by long term contracts. The present EU proposals for subsidising the arms industry have a time span of a year although there is nothing to prevent them from being renewed.

Thirdly there is also the issue of the banking sector's relationship with the arms industry. Traditionally this has been seen as a high risk area not least reputationally and therefore interest rates are higher for this activity, the private sector companies want these interest rates to be subsidised by the EU. The other option that the EU is considering is allowing the EIB (the European Bank) to invest in arms companies, a practice which the EU had previously restricted because it was 'socially harmful'.

Finally, there is the question of timescales, it is estimated that expanding and consolidating supply chains will take 2-3 years,Wiith regards to the proposal of new production facilities in Ukraine this will also take two years.

 

[ska invita]

last year we had US generals blusing at how much ammunition was being fired....it had a negligible effect on moving the frontline or reconquering the occupied territory.... just maybe more weaponary isnt the answer, and if you think it is the amswer, how much more does it have to be than last time when the taps were on full?

 

[UnderOpenSky]

last year we had US generals blusing at how much ammunition was being fired....it had a negligible effect on moving the frontline or reconquering the occupied territory.... just maybe more weaponary isnt the answer, and if you think it is the amswer, how much more does it have to be than last time when the taps were on full?

I'm not sure the taps have ever really been on full. I mean they got some cool toys, but certainly not what they said they needed.

 

[Chz]

I'm not sure the taps have ever really been on full. I mean they got some cool toys, but certainly not what they said they needed.

Well yeah. What they need, if they're going to use Western weapons and tactics, is a modern air force. But they're not going to get it. A few squadrons of 20+ year old F-16s is the best they can hope for.

 

[existentialist]

Well yeah. What they need, if they're going to use Western weapons and tactics, is a modern air force. But they're not going to get it. A few squadrons of 20+ year old F-16s is the best they can hope for.

And they've been doing that "hoping for" for a very long time...

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Well yeah. What they need, if they're going to use Western weapons and tactics, is a modern air force. But they're not going to get it. A few squadrons of 20+ year old F-16s is the best they can hope for.

And they haven't even got that two years on.

 

[TopCat]

The trouble with 'if only the world would do as I say' articles is that this time last year he was putting all his eggs into the Ukrainian counter offensive basket.

Now he wants us to directly fight. Fuck that.

 

[Bannerrefuggee]

Maybe Nato wants them right on the border. It makes things simpler. Another arms race, just like the last one.

 

[existentialist]

Looks like Ukraine might have taken down another Russian A-50. Course, Russia is saying it's friendly fire, but..."they would say that, wouldn't they?"

I do find myself wondering whether Ukraine is laying on a few demonstrations of capability, pour encourager l'Ouest, as it were.

 

[agricola]

Looks like Ukraine might have taken down another Russian A-50. Course, Russia is saying it's friendly fire, but..."they would say that, wouldn't they?"

I do find myself wondering whether Ukraine is laying on a few demonstrations of capability, pour encourager l'Ouest, as it were.

Something is going on - there is footage of whatever it was firing flares before being shot down, one of which apparently causes one of the missiles to explode prematurely.

 

[ska invita]

I do find myself wondering whether Ukraine is laying on a few demonstrations of capability, pour encourager l'Ouest, as it were.

are you feeling encouraged?

 

[existentialist]

are you feeling encouraged?

I am not l'Ouest

 

[Artaxerxes]

Looks like Ukraine might have taken down another Russian A-50. Course, Russia is saying it's friendly fire, but..."they would say that, wouldn't they?"

I do find myself wondering whether Ukraine is laying on a few demonstrations of capability, pour encourager l'Ouest, as it were.

They do know "Friendly Fire" shooting down your most advanced Command and Control Electronic Warfare plane is worse... right? They do get how that would be worse?

 

[Artaxerxes]

I'm not sure the taps have ever really been on full. I mean they got some cool toys, but certainly not what they said they needed.

The taps are dry and rusty because we outsourced our industrial capabilities to China over the last 30 years.


We produce a number of small high tech weapons domestically but sheer weight of fire counts for a lot.

 

[discokermit]

i see america have imposed more sanctions on russia. i wonder if they will be as effective as the last ones in boosting the economy of russia and destroying the economy of europe?

 

[StoneRoad]

Looks like Ukraine might have taken down another Russian A-50. Course, Russia is saying it's friendly fire, but..."they would say that, wouldn't they?"

I do find myself wondering whether Ukraine is laying on a few demonstrations of capability, pour encourager l'Ouest, as it were.

Splashing a second $350M plane a considerable distance behind the front line certainly demonstrates something.
Incidentally, they had a limited number operational, possibly as low as six. [according to certain intelligence agency - wikipedia got up to nine, IIRC - will check later. ]
which obv is now four and they are needed in other areas as well as the invasion of Ukraine ...

 

[ska invita]

i see america have imposed more sanctions on russia. i wonder if they will be as effective as the last ones in boosting the economy of russia and destroying the economy of europe?

It doesn't work, do it anyway is Bidenic Philosophy

 

[discokermit]

we are governed by fucking idiots.

 

[gosub]

we are governed by fucking idiots.

Same as it ever was

 

[emanymton]

Looks like Ukraine might have taken down another Russian A-50. Course, Russia is saying it's friendly fire, but..."they would say that, wouldn't they?"

I do find myself wondering whether Ukraine is laying on a few demonstrations of capability, pour encourager l'Ouest, as it were.

I'm not sure friendly fire is any better.