Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

discokermit said:
its not a stalemate. russia is winning.
Click to expand...

What do you base that on? Holding some big chunks of Ukraine or capturing the whole country and 'denazifying' the government through regime change and reducing the NATO threat next door (inital aims in Feb 2022 let's say). Crimea seems very safe so that must be a victory of sorts but it's quite far from a sign of actually winning the war.

I'd agree with you in that they have got more military supplies and resources than Ukraine. More artilery shells. Huge shift in the Russian economy to a war economy. But arguably at a cost not anticipated by the elites. The major military victories that Russia has scored in the past 1.5 years can be counted on one hand though... I still think the Ukranians are more motivated and will hold out and ultimately succeed long-term, I can't see them needing to negotiate in the near future. The USSR couldn't sustain the occupation of Afghanistan... what's different this time round really?
 
Riklet said:
What do you base that on? Holding some big chunks of Ukraine or capturing the whole country and 'denazifying' the government through regime change and reducing the NATO threat next door (inital aims in Feb 2022 let's say). Crimea seems very safe so that must be a victory of sorts but it's quite far from a sign of actually winning the war.

I'd agree with you in that they have got more military supplies and resources than Ukraine. More artilery shells. Huge shift in the Russian economy to a war economy. But arguably at a cost not anticipated by the elites. The major military victories that Russia has scored in the past 1.5 years can be counted on one hand though... I still think the Ukranians are more motivated and will hold out and ultimately succeed long-term, I can't see them needing to negotiate in the near future. The USSR couldn't sustain the occupation of Afghanistan... what's different this time round really?
Click to expand...
More than half a million Afghans died in the ten-year war in Afghanistan, probably a lot more than half a million. The dynamics of this war are different at the moment - most of the casualties in this war are fighters - but that could change as the thing drags on. After 10 years of this, how many will be dead? What kind of success will that have been, whoever 'wins'?
 
Riklet said:
What do you base that on? Holding some big chunks of Ukraine or capturing the whole country and 'denazifying' the government through regime change and reducing the NATO threat next door (inital aims in Feb 2022 let's say). Crimea seems very safe so that must be a victory of sorts but it's quite far from a sign of actually winning the war.

I'd agree with you in that they have got more military supplies and resources than Ukraine. More artilery shells. Huge shift in the Russian economy to a war economy. But arguably at a cost not anticipated by the elites. The major military victories that Russia has scored in the past 1.5 years can be counted on one hand though... I still think the Ukranians are more motivated and will hold out and ultimately succeed long-term, I can't see them needing to negotiate in the near future. The USSR couldn't sustain the occupation of Afghanistan... what's different this time round really?
Click to expand...
the fact the ukrainians havent got enough ammo or any aircover whilst the russians pound them constantly with artillery and fab 500's. it wont be too long before ukraine doesnt have an army at all.
the ukrainians will be begging to negotiate soon but i dont think russia will accept anything short of surrender at this point.
 
Strange that ...
UKR claim shooting down another two aircraft this morning [Su-35 & Su-355].
Note that UKR got three aircraft in both the Kherson & Adviika directions quite recently ...

For a country without much of a navy, sinking over a dozen ships and a submarine from the BSF is quite an achievement ...
 
Nobody is really winning, Russia has more territory but it’s made itself a pariah and it’s economy is now subsidied by China and it has lost half a million men and women and made its army into a laughing stock

Ukraine has lost so much and the damage to its country will take lifetimes to fix, though much of the damage is unfixable.


The world is the poorer for this conflict
 
discokermit said:
the fact the ukrainians havent got enough ammo or any aircover whilst the russians pound them constantly with artillery and fab 500's. it wont be too long before ukraine doesnt have an army at all.
the ukrainians will be begging to negotiate soon but i dont think russia will accept anything short of surrender at this point.
Click to expand...
This just shows you haven't got a clue how wars work.
 
UnderOpenSky said:
The other two crew members were "eliminated"?
Click to expand...

All-iminated now.

KYIV/MADRID, Feb 19 (Reuters) - A Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine with his helicopter last year was found dead in an underground garage in Spain last week, his body riddled with bullets, Ukrainian and Spanish media reported on Monday.
Spain's state news agency EFE reported that a body found on Feb 13 in the town of Villajoyosa, near Alicante in southern Spain, belonged to pilot Maxim Kuzminov, who had landed in Ukraine with his Mi-8 helicopter last August. He had been living in Spain with a Ukrainian passport under a different name, it said.

A spokesperson for Ukraine's GUR military intelligence confirmed to Reuters that Kuzminov had died in Spain, but did not specify the cause of death. Ukraine's Ukrainska Pravda newspaper also reported that he had been found shot dead.
Spanish police have confirmed that a body was found of a gunshot victim in the town, but have not disclosed the victim's identity. A source at Spain's Guardia Civil police force told Reuters that the victim could have been living under a fake identity.

Spain's La Informacion newspaper, which first reported the shooting, said investigators were searching for two suspects who had fled in a vehicle that was later found burnt out in a nearby town.
Kuzminov's defection to Ukraine was presented last year as a major coup for Kyiv. The GUR said at the time that it had lured him into defecting.
Click to expand...

 
discokermit said:
its not a stalemate. russia is winning.
Click to expand...
No, its not. Adivika was merely a recent setback based on a Russian surge to package it as a victory to the Russian electorate.

Ukraine has repulsed an invasion that was supposed to last weeks; inflicted massive damage to Russia's navy, despite literally not having a navy of their own; inflicted massive mapower loses on the Russian state at a ratio much higher than their own loses; began hitting key parts of the Russian economy in the form of oil refineries; put together an innovative pioneering arms industry; and pretty much galvanised Europe/N America to stand-up to Russian aggression.

discokermit said:
the ukrainians will be begging to negotiate soon but i dont think russia will accept anything short of surrender at this point.
Click to expand...
The Russian state does not honour international agreements. Any move along this trajectory would be kicking the can down the road.
 
RedRedRose said:
No, its not. Adivika was merely a recent setback based on a Russian surge to package it as a victory to the Russian electorate.

Ukraine has repulsed an invasion that was supposed to last weeks; inflicted massive damage to Russia's navy, despite literally not having a navy of their own; inflicted massive mapower loses on the Russian state at a ratio much higher than their own loses; began hitting key parts of the Russian economy in the form of oil refineries; put together an innovative pioneering arms industry; and pretty much galvanised Europe/N America to stand-up to Russian aggression.


The Russian state does not honour international agreements. Any move along this trajectory would be kicking the can down the road.
Click to expand...
lol. ukraine is fucked. this is just fantasy.
 
discokermit said:
i dont think russia will accept anything short of surrender at this point.
Click to expand...
Russia has not at any stage offered peace on terms short of surrender. This was in fact core to the original justification they were peddling for the invasion itself, which was formulated as a "de-Nazification" operation that would require the overthrow of the elected Ukrainian government and its replacement with one acceptable to the Kremlin.
 
Rob Ray said:
Russia has not at any stage offered peace on terms short of surrender. This was in fact core to the original justification they were peddling for the invasion itself, which was formulated as a "de-Nazification" operation that would require the overthrow of the elected Ukrainian government and its replacement with one acceptable to the Kremlin.
Click to expand...
what has that got to do with what i said?
 
Rob Ray said:
Russia has not at any stage offered peace on terms short of surrender. This was in fact core to the original justification they were peddling for the invasion itself, which was formulated as a "de-Nazification" operation that would require the overthrow of the elected Ukrainian government and its replacement with one acceptable to the Kremlin.
Click to expand...
they did have talks? and i think they were close to terms. so this is nonsense.
 
Rob Ray said:
Russia has not at any stage offered peace on terms short of surrender. This was in fact core to the original justification they were peddling for the invasion itself, which was formulated as a "de-Nazification" operation that would require the overthrow of the elected Ukrainian government and its replacement with one acceptable to the Kremlin.
Click to expand...
That's not entirely true. In 2022, Putin offered talks. Maybe this was entirely in bad faith, as the article below suggests. But it is Ukraine that ruled out negotiating with Putin in 2022. Of course that kind of pledge can be changed given events.

Why Russia is pushing a return to negotiations The Kremlin wants to buy time to prepare for a ‘full-scale offensive’ in early 2023, sources say — Meduza

This year, Zelenskiy and NATO are pushing the line that new rounds of arms are needed.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/16/europe/zelensky-davos-wef-ukraine-russia-frozen-intl/index.html

“What we can do is to just maximize the likelihood that at some stage President Putin will understand that to continue this war will have too high a price, and then at some stage he has to sit down and negotiate some kind of just, lasting peace, where Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation,” Stoltenberg said.
Click to expand...

So fight on until exhaustion. This is a tacit acknowledgment from Stoltenberg that Ukraine can't defeat Russia for as long as Russia is committed to continuing. The best they can do is not lose for as long as possible.

Not a word from anyone there about the human cost already paid on both sides, nor the human cost of continuing until Putin decides it is 'too high a price'. After two years of bloodshed, the best they have to offer, it seems, is another two years of bloodshed. It's profoundly depressing.
 
Atm it looks like Ukraine has two realistic options:
  1. Attempt to fight its way to a stalemate and retain a degree of independence.
  2. Concede and become a permanent vassal state of Russia, following which very likely a brutal pogrom will occur along similar lines to that imposed on Chechnya via the imposition of some sort of strongman by Moscow.
Russia meanwhile has three options:
  1. Withdraw
  2. Force the concession of existing captured lands and call it a day
  3. Continue until total victory, impose all original demands
At present the Ukrainian public is strongly against their option 2, while the Russian state is strongly against its options 1 and 2. So yes, both sides will keep going at it, likely until it becomes clear one side has definitively run out of steam. Imv Russia has the edge atm, but not definitively so and I think people bollocking on as though they already know the outcome are talking shit. There's too many variables (will the US cash come through, how will the price of oil fluctuate etc). The people who pontificate on here have no particular insights on the detail.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

editor
Russian ship ‘fires at German helicopter’
Replies
4
Views
402
dilute micro
dilute micro
platinumsage
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, Feb 2022 - tangentially related crap
31 32 33 34 35
Replies
1K
Views
55K
Elpenor
Elpenor
tim
The 2023 Russian Coup.
51 52 53 54 55
Replies
2K
Views
71K
_Russ_
_Russ_
Dogsauce
The Russian defenestration thread
2
Replies
52
Views
5K
Bahnhof Strasse
Bahnhof Strasse
platinumsage
Ukraine invasion memes and viral content
70 71 72 73 74
Replies
2K
Views
125K
keybored
keybored
Back
Top Bottom