Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[kebabking]

What makes you think that NATO 'may effectively cease to exist in less than 2 months' ?

Trump.

That's my view. The organisation will remain, but fundamentally NATO (or any other mutual defence treaty) relies on the other guy believing that there's enough of a chance that the other side will turn up mob-handed that it's not worth having a pop.

I don't believe the US will turn up under Trump, so why should Vlad?

 

[2hats]

So have they actually launched a missile costing tens of millions and just broken a few windows?

Maybe around $25 million per missile? I've no idea what the damage is yet (reportedly fell on the Yuzmash plant). One would guess that they think it might be a worthwhile expense if it intimidates to their advantage (see also the second part of the act during the МИД РФ briefing).

 

[Spymaster]

Sadly not - the most important thing they've done is to big up the nuclear threats by using a nuclear weapons platform. It might have hit Ukraine, but it's target wasn't Ukraine.

For the Ukrainians, it's shown them that Russia can hit their infrastructure - the MIRVs in the strike travel infinitely faster than even the hypersonic missiles that Russia have been using hitherto - an IRBM/ICBM warhead arrives pretty much vertically, and might be doing twenty times the speed of sound (15,000 miles an hour?) when it turns up. Some of the most modern Patriot variants can intercept them, and the SM-6 US Navy missile, and the RN's Aster 30 could get them too, but Ukraine's stock of high end Patriots is threadbare, and that's all they've got - I'm not even sure they got the version that would be effective would be of any use...

But nobody doubts that they could launch a nuclear weapon.

Does chucking one of these really bolster their threats that they might?

Seems more like a petulant kid stamping his feet.

 

[emanymton]

Trump.

That's my view. The organisation will remain, but fundamentally NATO (or any other mutual defence treaty) relies on the other guy believing that there's enough of a chance that the other side will turn up mob-handed that it's not worth having a pop.

I don't believe the US will turn up under Trump, so why should Vlad?

But would you be willing to bet everything on it?

 

[kebabking]

But would you be willing to bet everything on it?

The Russian invasion, based on the premise that they'd either be welcomed, or the Ukrainians would fold within a week, suggests that the wider Russian body politic is quite good at believing what it wants to believe.

 

[Skinny Ethel]

We could all do with a warm.

 

[TopCat]

It's the other way ...

Putin has repeatedly stated, as have his minions, like Lavrov - although not quite in these words - that he's not in the least interested in reducing the scale of his demands, which can be summarised as Ukraine's complete surrender.

If you summarise his demands as complete surrender then you are not acting in good faith.

 

[TopCat]

One or more missiles were almost certainly used. If the former possibly it's the Topol-M/ME/MR, which would tally better with the RV count. It appears to have originated from Kapustin Yar. The ME is often used to test MIRV from there to Sary Shagan, so that could make a good candidate for a demo exercise (I once happened to be perfectly located downrange just past the target on the night of a launch, but bad weather spoiled my view).

A feverish atmosphere has pervaded the thread again. Acronym after acronym. Urban posters with forces connections at the fore.

 

[Flavour]

What makes you think that NATO 'may effectively cease to exist in less than 2 months' ?

Donald Trump will not invoke article 5 of NATO if Russian bombs start "accidentally" landing on the Polish side of the Ukrainian border. I would be shitting my pants if I lived in the Baltics.

 

[Silas Loom]

A feverish atmosphere has pervaded the thread again. Acronym after acronym. Urban posters with forces connections at the fore.

You were happy enough weighing in on behalf of the cynical flyboy.

 

[Flavour]

A feverish atmosphere has pervaded the thread again. Acronym after acronym. Urban posters with forces connections at the fore.

What are your thoughts on the use of ballistic missiles by Russia against Ukraine today, eh?

 

[kebabking]

What are your thoughts on the use of ballistic missiles by Russia against Ukraine today, eh?

He's pulled out his middle.

 

[Pickman's model]

Donald Trump will not invoke article 5 of NATO if Russian bombs start "accidentally" landing on the Polish side of the Ukrainian border. I would be shitting my pants if I lived in the Baltics.

Article 5 is invoked by the alliance not by one member of it

 

[brogdale]

Donald Trump will not invoke article 5 of NATO if Russian bombs start "accidentally" landing on the Polish side of the Ukrainian border. I would be shitting my pants if I lived in the Baltics.

So more NETO than NATO, then?

 

[Pickman's model]

But nobody doubts that they could launch a nuclear weapon.

Does chucking one of these really bolster their threats that they might?

Seems more like a petulant kid stamping his feet.

As you'll have noticed earlier in the thread there were doubts expressed as to the Russian ability to get icbms to work

 

[kebabking]

As you'll have noticed earlier in the thread there were doubts expressed as to the Russian ability to get icbms to work

An individual missile that had long been scheduled for a test launch, or a large scale launch involving hundreds of launches at no notice?

 

[Skinny Ethel]

How does anyone know if an Icbm contains nuclear stuff after its launched? Are they just calling peoples bluff.

 

[Spymaster]

As you'll have noticed earlier in the thread there were doubts expressed as to the Russian ability to get icbms to work

I've not seen those but if that was the case, they still haven't dispelled those doubts because apparently this wasn't an ICBM.

 

[Pickman's model]

An individual missile that had long been scheduled for a test launch, or a large scale launch involving hundreds of launches at no notice?

I don't suppose any use of nuclear weapons occurs with no notice. It's entirely possible that a fair proportion of Russian missiles are incapable of working, but I don't expect they'd need many of them to work - it'd be the nuclear equivalent of harry callahan's line, do you feel lucky, punk? Would missiles rain down on Russia if they used a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine? I doubt it. Over the last 10, 12 years we've seen red lines drawn by western governments in eg Syria which haven't been acted on. And after 21 January it's really doubtful that putin would have reason to launch a nuclear weapon.

 

[Pickman's model]

I've not seen those but if that was the case, they still haven't dispelled those doubts because apparently this wasn't an ICBM.

A nuclear capable missile then. Fine pedantry there, spy, good to see you keeping your hand in

 

[Spymaster]

A nuclear capable missile then. Fine pedantry there, spy, good to see you keeping your hand in

I learnt from the best.

 

[kebabking]

How does anyone know if an Icbm contains nuclear stuff after its launched? Are they just calling peoples bluff.

You don't - but the US and UK have looked at the idea of using ICBM's to deliver conventional munitions instead of nuclear ones and every time it comes up against the same problem: if your enemy sees you (from space, and on earth based radars) launching nuclear weapons platforms that could arrive over their country in a matter of minutes and a) wipe out their own ICBM's, or b) wipe out their command & control systems, they are going to do an immediate launch to ensure that you get some as well.

Armageddon by misunderstanding. Which is, at the least, embarrassing...

 

[Chz]

I've not seen those but if that was the case, they still haven't dispelled those doubts because apparently this wasn't an ICBM.

There's no so much a doubt about the missiles launching - although Russia has spectacularly failed a few tests trying to show off during the Special Military Operation - it's more that warheads require constant and expensive upkeep to be in a useful state. Missiles are easy, and they've managed to bollocks that up a few times of late. Nuclear warheads are much harder.

It's theatre. Even Russia can't afford to lob IRBMs to destroy hospitals and houses on a regular basis. It's just to say that they can always get through if they have to, and I'm not sure that was actually in doubt.

 

[agricola]

Donald Trump will not invoke article 5 of NATO if Russian bombs start "accidentally" landing on the Polish side of the Ukrainian border. I would be shitting my pants if I lived in the Baltics.

It would be Poland who’d invoke it in that case, and it would be up to everyone else to respond to it.

 

[Flavour]

Fair enough agricola , I mean the US will not be Europe's guarantor and will likely not respond to Russian attacks on Europe

 

[Pickman's model]

It would be Poland who’d invoke it in that case, and it would be up to everyone else to respond to it.

No, as I've posted above the alliance invokes it, it's not for a member state to invoke as the nato website makes clear https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm

 

[maomao]

The Ukrainians are saying they shot down six out of nine projectiles. That would be a not bad result considering how fast they come down, how true is it likely to be?

 

[kebabking]

The Ukrainians are saying they shot down six out of nine projectiles. That would be a not bad result considering how fast they come down, how true is it likely to be?

I would be surprised if they had shot down 6 out of 9, if all nine were IRBM/ICBM warheads - not impossible, but surprised.

 

[Lotte]

It's the other way ...

Putin has repeatedly stated, as have his minions, like Lavrov - although not quite in these words - that he's not in the least interested in reducing the scale of his demands, which can be summarised as Ukraine's complete surrender.

That's what I mean. Putin isn't going to back down until Zelenskyy gives in.

 

[CNT36]

I've not seen those but if that was the case, they still haven't dispelled those doubts because apparently this wasn't an ICBM.

Except when it is...