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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

As I recently said on another thread, I think invasion is attractive for Putin and achievable quite quickly, but occupation is another kettle of fish altogether and I am not sure Putin has the stomach for that.
 
Is this how WW3 starts then?

Perfect time for ration books to make a comeback, most stuff is already in short supply.
No Lamb shanks in ASDA in Wrexham today. Not even a shoulder or a breast joint. This is Wales FFS.

I've told the Mrs to keep those stockings she bought for me to go to the Rocky Horror in their packaging for now. :hmm:
 
friedaweed said:
Is this how WW3 starts then?

Perfect time for ration books to make a comeback, most stuff is already in short supply.
No Lamb shanks in ASDA in Wrexham today. Not even a shoulder or a breast joint. This is Wales FFS.

I've told the Mrs to keep those stockings she bought for me to go to the Rocky Horror in their packaging for now. :hmm:
Click to expand...
No hoarding powdered egg
 
weltweit said:
As I recently said on another thread, I think invasion is attractive for Putin and achievable quite quickly, but occupation is another kettle of fish altogether and I am not sure Putin has the stomach for that.
Click to expand...
IMO Putin doesn't want or need that and the cost implications. He wants some form of recognition in Kiev that their security and economy is tied to Russia's sphere for historic/cultural reasons and to prevent NATO membership, and wants the West to recognise that. Read the article shared by hitmouse (post #177).

I remember that Paul Keating, Australian PM in the early 1990's advising Bill Clinton to 'wind NATO up' as in his opinion extending NATO east would only antagonise a demoralised Russia and exacerbate Russian nationalism. I would normally provide a health warning to Keating's musings, but he may have had a practical point on this one.

The whole thing, given the mobilisation and the risk of flare ups, is fraught with danger. Very risky to play games like this with soldiers :(
 
steeplejack said:
Cosplay bollox, the order to leave.

www.bne.eu

RAGOZIN: What is Zelenskiy afraid of?

Despite having more than 100,000 Russian troops massed near its border since last April, Ukraine’s perception of the Russian threat has been ...
www.bne.eu www.bne.eu
Click to expand...
Compare and contrast with this brilliantly shit piece from the Guardian
www.theguardian.com

The edge of war: what, exactly, does Putin want in Ukraine?

The massive military buildup could be a bluff, or a political ploy designed for a Russian audience. Either way, the US is digging in
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Putin fears strategically important Ukraine, commanding Russia’s south-western flank, is assimilating into the west. He objects to its growing closeness to Nato. He also opposes Kyiv’s developing links with the EU. Worse still, from his point of view, Ukraine is a democracy, with free speech and free media, which freely elects its leaders. In practice, Russians enjoy no such freedoms – if they followed Ukraine’s example, Putin would not last long. More broadly, Putin is a nostalgic revisionist who regards Ukraine as an integral part of historical Russia and its loss as a symbol of Russia’s cold war defeat.
Click to expand...
That Putin hates our freedom!
 
www.independent.co.uk

Ukraine criticises UK defence secretary over ‘whiff of Munich’ comments

Ben Wallace cuts short family holiday amid fears invasion could begin within days
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

To be honest I don't get where Prystaiko is coming from though if that s Ukraine's concern rather than the possibility that US and UK have left Putin an open goal , so much the better.

I do get the impression that unlike Truss ; Mr Wallace did his homework before visiting Russia and can only hope removal if UK and US troops is taken as an effort to de escilate. If it isn't , well Mr Wallace will at least be able to say I told you so
 
It's fucking terrible though isn't it?

Here's the world on the home straight from dealing with a global pandemic and the word on the street is War, pensioners unable to afford to heat their homes and a globe that's getting hotter. In the meantime we have Liz, Boris, and Sleepy Joe as our only hope.

I can't wait until China wades in :D
 

'No sign' Russia will back down amid crisis over Ukraine, says Downing Street​

Downing Street said there has been “no sign” Russia will “back down” amid the crisis on the Ukrainian border.
The PM’s official spokesman said:
It’s certainly true that we have seen no sign so far that Russia will back down. There are more than 130,000 Russian troops on the border with the Ukraine and we are gravely concerned.
But we will continue to explore every possible avenue to talk Russia back from this path.
Click to expand...
Parliament could be recalled if Russia invades Ukraine this week, the spokesman said.
Asked if this was a possibility, the PM’s official spokesman said:
While I wouldn’t get into a hypothetical, obviously we would discuss that with the Speaker – and in that situation you would expect that the prime minister would want parliament to be updated and for it to have its say.
Click to expand...


Looks like Downing Street has given up on trying to get Crimea back. (presumably that's where Liz Truss thought Rostov and Voronezh were)

As to Boris' "A Country's Soveriegn right to join NATO can't be traded away. ". He's quite right on that. But, much like its a Coutry's Soveriegn right to start a .war, I'd just rather they didn't.
 
Last edited:
eatmorecheese said:
IMO Putin doesn't want or need that and the cost implications. He wants some form of recognition in Kiev that their security and economy is tied to Russia's sphere for historic/cultural reasons and to prevent NATO membership, and wants the West to recognise that. Read the article shared by hitmouse (post #177).

I remember that Paul Keating, Australian PM in the early 1990's advising Bill Clinton to 'wind NATO up' as in his opinion extending NATO east would only antagonise a demoralised Russia and exacerbate Russian nationalism. I would normally provide a health warning to Keating's musings, but he may have had a practical point on this one.

The whole thing, given the mobilisation and the risk of flare ups, is fraught with danger. Very risky to play games like this with soldiers :(
Click to expand...

The problem with that is Eastern Europe and the Baltics don't want to be in the "Russian sphere of influence" that idea is about as popular as Ireland rejoining the UK and for similar reasons.
Russia military occupied eastern europe.
uk's defence budget is similar to Russia even using conscripts and not buying from BAE your going to struggle to keep 12000 tanks a million men a massive nuclear arsenal etc up to date and maintained.
the US has 6000 tanks for example China 5800 UK has 227
 
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