Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[DaveCinzano]

I'm a bit offended that you think I might be doing any work after elevenses

C4U

kebabking is RLC?

 

[scalyboy]

Could Putin's aim be a punitive expedition, rather than full-scale occupation of Ukraine, or overthrowing the Zelenskii govt and replacing him with a friendly puppet? Punitive, as in destroying much of Ukraine's military assets, then withdrawing in a couple of weeks, after talks in which Ukraine had guaranteed never to join NATO? Assuming Ukraine had been terrified by this invasion and wouldn't want a repeat (of course the counterpoint to that is that - like Finland - having been threatened not to join, if Ukraine did join NATO, they would in theory at least have the protection of its other members).

I would've thought he'd be reluctant to occupy the country and be faced with fierce resistance for years to come, bogging Russian troops down with increasing casualties and domestic opposition, as in Afghanistan. Instead is it more likely he's planning to topple Zelenskii, installing Yanukovych or another instead. Why this latter plan could come unstuck though, would be Ukrainians remembering the 2013-14 EuroMaidan protests which led to Yanukovych's to Russia. Wouldn't acceptance of Yanukovych again or someone similar be a betrayal of EuroMaidan? Another way to look at this is that Ukrainians might well feel empowered, in the knowledge that they had got rid of an unwanted leader in 2014 so can do so again.

[edited: Yanukovych not Lukashenko FFS. Brain fail again ]

 

[8ball]

Not only Russians. British people as well.

I can see why it may be a small but worthwhile point of consideration for Ukrainians tuning into the World Service.

 

[8ball]

Could Putin's aim be a punitive expedition, rather than full-scale occupation of Ukraine, or overthrowing the Zelenskii govt and replacing him with a friendly puppet? Punitive, as in destroying much of Ukraine's military assets, then withdrawing in a couple of weeks, after talks in which Ukraine had guaranteed never to join NATO? Assuming Ukraine had been terrified by this invasion and wouldn't want a repeat (of course the counterpoint to that is that - like Finland - having been threatened not to join, if Ukraine did join NATO, they would in theory at least have the protection of its other members).

I would've thought he'd be reluctant to occupy the country and be faced with fierce resistance for years to come, bogging Russian troops down with increasing casualties and domestic opposition, as in Afghanistan. Instead is it more likely he's planning to topple Zelenskii, installing Lukashenko (?) or another instead. Why this latter plan could come unstuck though, would be Ukrainians remembering the 2013-14 EuroMaidan protests which led to Lukashenko's departure to Russia. Wouldn't acceptance of Lukashenko again or someone similar be a betrayal of EuroMaidan? Another way to look at this is that Ukrainians might well feel empowered, in the knowledge that they had got rid of an unwanted leader in 2014 so can do so again.

This, quoted for the third time, has some really good info and commentary on exactly the things you are speculating on: Worse Than a Crime; It’s a Blunder

 

[elbows]

Could Putin's aim be a punitive expedition, rather than full-scale occupation of Ukraine, or overthrowing the Zelenskii govt and replacing him with a friendly puppet? Punitive, as in destroying much of Ukraine's military assets, then withdrawing in a couple of weeks, after talks in which Ukraine had guaranteed never to join NATO? Assuming Ukraine had been terrified by this invasion and wouldn't want a repeat (of course the counterpoint to that is that - like Finland - having been threatened not to join, if Ukraine did join NATO, they would in theory at least have the protection of its other members).

I would've thought he'd be reluctant to occupy the country and be faced with fierce resistance for years to come, bogging Russian troops down with increasing casualties and domestic opposition, as in Afghanistan. Instead is it more likely he's planning to topple Zelenskii, installing Lukashenko (?) or another instead. Why this latter plan could come unstuck though, would be Ukrainians remembering the 2013-14 EuroMaidan protests which led to Lukashenko's departure to Russia. Wouldn't acceptance of Lukashenko again or someone similar be a betrayal of EuroMaidan? Another way to look at this is that Ukrainians might well feel empowered, in the knowledge that they had got rid of an unwanted leader in 2014 so can do so again.

Friendly puppet is what we've been told via US etc revealing Russias plan.

There are pro-Russian opposition parties with an existing support base in Ukraine and ties to Putin. eg Viktor Medvedchuk.

 

[kebabking]

kebabking is RLC?

Oaties, not party rings...

 

[existentialist]

yeh but you do get military vehicles, eg the american mrap, which have extra armour to prevent just such a thing. i suspect this wasn't a 'let's kill a ukrainian civilian' but 'let's get rid of a threat'

Perhaps. But it's not going to help the Putin lie that "we're here to save you from your horrible government". If anything it'll make people more likely to try and take out tanks, if they're going to be treated as if they are trying to anyway. Perhaps a small thing in the grand scheme of things, but this is a fine way to unite a population against the invader.

 

[agricola]

Just read about two more ships being hit off the coast of Ukraine. Does anyone know why the Russians haven't declared a blockade of the coast?

 

[existentialist]

Note that there are 15 other active reactors at 4 power plants across Ukraine.

Yebbut, none of them are in bits. Yet.

 

[TopCat]

If the Ukrainians know having a Russia pleasing govt would end the conflict that may be enough for a lot of them, certainly enough to stop them throwing themselves into hell in a deranged dads army.

 

[existentialist]

I'm a bit offended that you think I might be doing any work after elevenses on POETS day...

Bollocks, you've been out the back doing target practice with your Javelins.

 

[Leighsw2]

Twas mentioned on the World Service earlier the number of tanks countries have. Obviously Russia has very many and many of which are modern. Britain apparently has 200 ..

Concerning. Didn't we used to have 800? Still, I'm sure they're super-super tanks!

 

[Pickman's model]

Perhaps. But it's not going to help the Putin lie that "we're here to save you from your horrible government". If anything it'll make people more likely to try and take out tanks, if they're going to be treated as if they are trying to anyway. Perhaps a small thing in the grand scheme of things, but this is a fine way to unite a population against the invader.

Oh I'm not saying never mind. All these places, Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechenya, all a damn sight easier to get into than get out of, and either Putin gets out quick or this will be bloody over the long haul for Russia and Ukraine. You're right about the people being key to this, every incident like this whether utterly valid from the pov of the soldier or not will add up like they did for the Americans in Iraq. Unhappy days ahead

 

[weltweit]

Many Ukranians are trying to flee to Poland. Families are arriving at the border only to be told that men between the ages of 18 and 60 are not permitted to leave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60517447

8.14

 

[belboid]

Everyone should just give Ukraine douze points on principle.

Sadly the Ukrainian entry had to withdraw cos she visited Crimea

 

[weltweit]

Russia is stripped of Champions League final, kicked out of 2022 Eurovision Song Contest, and stopped from hosting F1 Grand Prix

That should teach them pesky russkies

 

[Aladdin]

Russian ambassador to Ireland just got ripped to shreds in an interview on RTE news

The same ambassador who said this on Feb 16th.

"We do not have any plans to invade anybody, least of all Ukraine," Mr Filatov said.

"We do not have any political, economic, military or [any] other reason to do that. The whole idea is insane. If you knew something about the Russian and Ukrainian people you would never ask such a question."

 

[Leighsw2]

I look at this and think how on Earth is this acceptable behaviour. Then I recall how they acted in Syria.

Yes, Syria is probably the blue-print for how they would want to deal with an armed insurgency in Ukraine. Which is why getting an effective air defence system over to the Ukrainian govt asap ought to be a priority for NATO (though I imagine it won't be.)

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

That should teach them pesky russkies

They've lost the Sochi F1 too. Is there no end to The West's cruelty?

 

[Diamond]

Remarkable how there is so little talk of MH17 in all of this.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes, Syria is probably the blue-print for how they would want to deal with an armed insurgency in Ukraine. Which is why getting an effective air defence system over to the Ukrainian govt asap ought to be a priority for NATO (though I imagine it won't be.)

Tbh they should try not to create an insurgency in the first place, and failing that, which I think we all agree they have, not to make matters worse for themselves by killing or targeting civilians.

 

[Pickman's model]

Remarkable how there is so little talk of MH17 in all of this.

Yeh cos that's so relevant right now isn't it

 

[Dystopiary]

nm

 

[scalyboy]

Do you mean Yanukovych? Bit confused by Lukashenko (Belarus president).

Yes, quite right, sorry - brain fail on my part.
I just edited that post to correct it. Brain fog & exhaustion still affecting me, on and off, since Covid infection in mid-October. I'm surprised I passed my driving test!

 

[Dystopiary]

Yes, quite right, sorry - brain fail on my part.
I just edited that post to correct it. Brain fog & exhaustion still affecting me, on and off, since Covid infection in mid-October. I'm surprised I passed my driving test!

Sure, I totally understand. Thanks for that. I've deleted my question so's not to add to any confusion.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes, quite right, sorry - brain fail on my part.
I just edited that post to correct it. Brain fog & exhaustion still affecting me, on and off, since Covid infection in mid-October. I'm surprised I passed my driving test!

Congratulations on passing

 

[friedaweed]

I fucking love Eurovision! Hands off our song contest

On the list.

 

[eoin_k]

Other footage from a different angle shows an ambush taking place on another vehicle when the tank swerves.... Not defending the driver, but the situation was a bit messier than this angle suggests FWIW.

Here is what was going on at the same time. The driver of the van getting shot on the ground was supposedly part of the same unit as the armoured car driver who goes over the car.

 

[spitfire]

Russian ambassador to Ireland just got ripped to shreds in an interview on RTE news

The same ambassador who said this on Feb 16th.

"We do not have any plans to invade anybody, least of all Ukraine," Mr Filatov said.

"We do not have any political, economic, military or [any] other reason to do that. The whole idea is insane. If you knew something about the Russian and Ukrainian people you would never ask such a question."

His car got some grief at the embassy gates in Dublin and had to make like a banana and split.

Vid on Twitter somewhere. I’m out right now.

 

[existentialist]

Remarkable how there is so little talk of MH17 in all of this.

Well, it's hardly current affairs is it?